E-books and E-Journals in US University Libraries: Current Status and Future Prospects
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1 E-books and E-Journals in US University Libraries: Current Status and Future Prospects James Michalko Vice President, OCLC Research Symposium Keio University 6 October 2010
2 collection trends switch to e-books implications E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 2
3 ARL Expenditures, An unsustainable pattern of growth Source: Expenditure Trends in ARL Libraries, ARL Statistics , Association of Research Libraries, Washington, DC E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 3
4 Less investment in libraries Analysis based on NCES data: Constance Malpas If this trend continues library allocations would fall below 0.5% by Growth in for profit sector, concerns about infrastructure costs in the middle and budget issues in the research sector all support this trend. E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 4
5 In the last 15 years... While student enrollment has increased (+25%)... use of onsite library collections/services has decreased (-10 to -50%)... and reliance on external collections has more than doubled (+150%) Students and researchers reliance on library has changed Source: Service Trends in ARL Libraries, ARL Statistics , Association of Research Libraries, Washington, DC E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 5
6 What Do We Know About Print Book Use The 80/20 rule applies Past use predicts future use (better than anything else) Use declines with age In academic print collections users fail to find owned known items 50% of the time Cost to the user is largely in the uncertainty of finding what they want They are no longer using what we have. The value of our print collections to the University has declined rapidly David W. Lewis. E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 6
7 12.9% E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 7
8 switch to e-books E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 8
9 Move from Print to Electronic Collections 60.0% ARL Medium % Expenditures on Electronic Resources 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 2002/ / / / / / David W. Lewis. E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct2010 9
10 Move from Print to Electronic Collections Complete for journals But we re still shelving unused paper Nearly complete for reference works But we re still buying paper reference works 2010 David W. Lewis E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
11 and the switch to primarily e-book purchasing will happen soon E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
12 Forecasts Digital Availability of e-books - the publishers expect this switch Current* Segment Five Years* Front Back Ten Years# 25% Trade: 85% 50% 100% 10% Acad/Prof: 75% 30% 100% Text books: 20% College: 90% 10% 100% 1% H/S: 20% 5% 50% Memo: *Assumes top tier publishers 1,000 active publishers # Assumes any active publisher selling on Amazon.com OCLC work commissioned from Michael Cairns. Based on interviews with selection of industry experts. E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
13 Status of the switch to e-publications Complete for e-journals Will be primarily electronic for books soon Combine with Mass digitization of legacy print collections Google in USA digitizing everything regardless of copyright status Google participating libraries creating a joint platform to store, preserve and ultimately access their copies of the Google digital versions. The platform is run by the University of Michigan and called the Hathi Trust E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
14 Hathi Trust - current members California Digital Library UC San Diego Indiana University UC San Francisco Michigan State University UC Santa Barbara Northwestern University UC Santa Cruz The Ohio State University The University of Chicago Penn State University University of Illinois Purdue University University of Illinois at Chicago UC Berkeley The University of Iowa UC Davis University it of Michigan UC Irvine University of Minnesota UCLA University of Wisconsin-Madison UC Merced University of Virginia UC Riverside MOST OF THE US GOOGLE BOOK PARTNERS E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
15 Moving from Print to Electronic Books IF E-book publishing will be the norm and Legacy print will be digitized (Google, Hathi, the Digitizing Academic Books in Japanese project) THEN We can change the management of our existing print collections We can retire our legacy print collections E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
16 Retire Legacy Print Collections Under way at many institutions Discussions in process on collaborations and national programs 2010 David W. Lewis. E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
17 Retiring Legacy Print Collections - digital is much cheaper than the library or a storage facility $5.00 to $13.10 $28.77 $50.98 to $68.43 Life cycle cost based on 3% discount rate. From Paul N. Courant and Matthew Buzzy Nielsen, On the Cost of Keeping a Book, in The Idea of Od Order: Transforming Research hcollections for 21st Century Shl Scholarship, hi CLIR, June 2010, available at: E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
18 implications E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
19 US Investment in Academic Print Collections Academic Library Expenditures on Purchased and Licensed Content 90% 80% 70% Projected change 60% Pi Print books and journals E journals and e books You are here 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct Source: US Dept of Education, NCES, Academic Libraries Survey,
20 A global change in the library environment 60% % of Titles in Local Collec ction 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Academic print book collection already substantially duplicated in mass digitized book corpus June 2010 Median duplication: 31% June 2009 Median duplication: 19% 0% Rank in 2008 ARL Investment Index Data current as of June 2010 E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
21 Issues with Mass Digitization of Legacy Print materials Legal issues Copyright Orphan Works Open Access Financial Technical Organizational National and trans-national national obstacles E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
22 Thank you. Jim Michalko comments, questions and observations are welcome via Thanks to Lorcan Dempsey, David Lewis, Constance Malpas for their contributions E-Books and US University Libraries Keio Symposium 6 Oct
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