Econometrics and Economic Theory

Transcription

1 Jan Tinbergen

2 Econometrics and Economic Theory Essays in Honour of Jan Tinbergen Edited by Willy Sellekaerts Palgrave Macmillan

3 Editorial matter and Willy Sellekaerts 1974 Chapter Clifford Hildreth and Warren T. Dent 1974 Chapter N. Johnston, L. R. Klein and K. Shinjo 1974 Chapter Edwin Kuh 1974 Chapter Potluri Rao 1974 Chapter 5@ Jati K. Sengupta 1974 Chapter 6 Gerhard Tintner, Gopal Kadekodi and M. V. Rama Sastry 1974 Chapter Arnold Zellner 1974 Chapter 8@ William J. Baumol1974 Chapter H. S. Houthakker 1974 Chapter 10@ Dale W. Jorgenson 1974 Chapter Simon Kuznets 1974 Chapter Abba P. Lerner 1974 Chapter Lawrence H. Officer 1974 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1974 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission. First published 1974 by 1HE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in New York Dublin Melbourne Johannesburg and Madras SBN ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI /

4 Contents Preface PART I ECONOMETRICS 1 An Adjusted Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Autocorrelation in Disturbances Clifford Hildreth and Warren T. Dent 3 2 Estimation and Prediction in Dynamic Econometric Models H. N. Johnston, L. R. Klein and K. Shinjo 21 3 An Essay on Aggregation Theory and Practice Edwin Kuh 51 4 Specification Bias in Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Pot/uri Rao Economic Policy Simulation in Dynamic Control Models under Econometric Estimation Jati K. Sengupta A Macro-Model ofthe Economy for the Explanation of Trend and Business Cycle with Applications to India Gerhard Tintner, Gopal Kadekodi and M. V. Rama Sastry The Quality of Quantitative Economic Policy Making when Targets and Costs of Change are Mis-specified Arnold Zellner 147 PART II ECONOMIC THEORY AND MISCELLANEOUS 8 Acceleration Incentives and X-Efficiency William J. Baumol The Size Distribution of Labour Incomes Derived from the Distribution of Aptitudes H. S. Houthakker 177 vii

5 vi Contents 10 The Economic Theory of Replacement and Depreciation Dale W. Jorgenson Demographic Aspects of the Distribution of Income among Families: Recent Trends in the United States Simon Kuznets Money, Debt and Wealth Abba P. Lerner Demand Conditions under Multidimensional Pricing Lawrence H. Officer 261 Bibliography of Jan Tinbergen 285 Index 291

6 Preface In 1969 Ragnar Frisch and Jan Tinbergen were selected to share the first Nobel Prize in Economics. As former students of Professor Tinbergen my wife and I decided to honour him by compiling and editing a collection of previously unpublished articles, written by leading economists. In order to create a lasting monument to Jan Tinbergen we decided to use the royalties from the volume to create a scholarship fund from which outstanding Dutch students in economics will receive financial assistance during their first year of study in the North American university of their choice. Further details will later be arranged with the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam. Several North American and European economists were invited to write a paper, preferably focusing on Tinbergen's pathbreaking work in international trade, economic development and planning, econometrics and economic theory. Most invited economists readily accepted the invitation. I thank all the contributors for their continuous interest and spontaneous co-operation during the two years between the mailing of the invitations and the completion of the manuscript. Although a Nobel Prizewinner does not need to be introduced to the scholars of his discipline, I decided to include in this collection of essays a paper written by Bent Hansen, in which he not only skilfully appraises Professor Tinbergen's contributions to economics, but also pictures Tin bergen the man as a humanitarian idealist, a worthy candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. I thank the Swedish Journal of Economics, and in particular Peter Bohm, for giving me permission to reprint Bent Hansen's paper. As an appendix to each of the three volumes of this Festschrift, a selected bibliography of Jan Tinbergen's contributions to economics has been included. In addition to the contributors, many persons have helped to make the publication of this collection of essays in honour of Jan Tinbergen possible. I thank Professor Dole Anderson, Director of the Institute for International Business and Economic Development of Michigan State University, who supported

7 viii Preface my idea and made the facilities of the Institute available to invite the contributors. The Faculty of Social Sciences of the University of Ottawa also contributed to the success of this volume. I thank Patrick Meany of The Macmillan Company of Canada for his assistance in the publication of the Festschrift. Above all, my wife, Brigitte made the publication of this Festschrift feasible, by providing invaluable technical and editorial assistance. Ottawa, November 1971 WILLY SELLEKAERTS