Global PET Film Marketplace; Impact on Converting Industry. Robert K Sinclair DuPont Teijin Films October 2004
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1 Global PET Film Marketplace; Impact on Converting Industry Robert K Sinclair DuPont Teijin Films October 2004
2 Agenda Overview Market Environment PET Film Industry Impact on Converters
3 PET & PEN Films for High Performance Applications Key Capabilities PET and PEN polymer science Applications development $1.4B Revenue Product Portfolio Film processing PET and PEN polyester films Coated films Metallized films Sealant Films Shrink Films Stabilized films Specialty resins Key Markets Electronics Safety, Health and Protection Packaging Imaging Printing and Recording Media Industrial Applications 300,000 tes Capacity 4,000 People
4 Films for Electronics Capacitors Dry photo resist Digital Displays RFID Membrane Touch Switches Auto sensors, Flexible circuits Advanced Data Media storage
5 Films for Safety, Health and Protection Security, ID, health cards Passports Protective Labels Medical Test strips Sterile packaging Safety glass and window films
6 Packaging Films for Impact, Freshness and Convenience Flexible packaging Sealant films Shrink films Holographic films Barrier films Ovenable films Can lamination
7 Films for Imaging, Printing and Recording Media Graphic Arts Offset printing Flexo Proofing Ink Jet X-ray Flexible CD s Digital Stencil Thermal Transfer VHS Cassettes Photo/ APS photo Holographic films
8 Films for Industrial Applications up to 500 micron Wire and cables Industrial Imaging Motors Stamping Foils Coil Coating Cast and release
9 Macro Environment Raw material prices, driven primarily by energy costs, are expected to increase year over year Market prices up across the board (Oil, Natural Gas, Shipping/Freight, Copper, Aluminum) Growth in emerging markets compounds the issue Manufacturing output is high and expected to remain high - ISM Index at a 20 year High * Spot Price, Friday West Texas Intermediate 4 Week Moving Avg 1990s Avg. $19.70/bbl OIL U.S. Oil Prices * Dollars per Barrel Avg $/bbl 2000 $ $ $ $ $40.54e 2005 $42.16f Actual August Futures Avg. $29.40/bbl Since end of '
10 Macro Environment Industry shifts US to Asia W Europe to E Europe US importing more finished goods from Asia W European growth anemic Positive underlying growth in Japan E Europe booming IPIWORLD1 97 Manufacturing by Region Indexes, 1997=100 US(6.0%) Japan (8.4%) Emerging Europe(12.6%) Asia ex Japan (15.0%) Western Europe(2.4%) Note: Data in legend latest yr/yr %chg
11 Macro Environment Technology Shifts analogue to digital miniaturization info age to biological era technical progress accelerating Decrease in Size of Mechanical Devices Impact speed is critical productivity and quality will continue to improve - dramatically intangibles will have most economic value technology and power will move to consumers Scale Expon. (Scale)
12 PET Film Demand - Global Q1'94 Q3'94 Q1'95 Q3'95 Q1'96 Q3'96 Q1'97 Q3'97 Q1'98 K Tes Q3'98 Q1'99 Q3'99 Q1'00 Q3'00 Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Source: DuPont Teijin Films Market CAGR 6.4%
13 Global PET Film Demand (tes) 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000, , , , , Magnetics Packaging Imaging Electrical Industrial CAGR 6.4% 8.9% 0.9% 10.4% -4.8% Source: DuPont Teijin Films
14 PET Film Demand Asia (excluding Japan) CAGR 12.7% Q1'94 Q3'94 Q1'95 Q3'95 Q1'96 Q3'96 Q1'97 Q3'97 Q1'98 Q3'98 Q1'99 Q3'99 Q1'00 Q3'00 Q1'01 K tes Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Source: DuPont Teijin Films Market
15 PET Film Demand Japan Q1'94 Q3'94 Q1'95 Q3'95 Q1'96 Q3'96 Q1'97 Q3'97 K tes Q1'98 Q3'98 Q1'99 Q3'99 Q1'00 Q3'00 Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Source: DuPont Teijin Films and Industry estimates Source: DuPont Teijin Films Market CAGR 4.8%
16 PET Film Demand Western Europe Q1'94 Q3'94 Q1'95 Q3'95 Q1'96 Q3'96 Q1'97 Q3'97 Q1'98 Q3'98 Q1'99 Q3'99 K tes Q1'00 Q3'00 Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Market Source: DuPont Teijin Films CAGR 2.4%
17 PET Film Demand North America Q1'94 Q3'94 Q1'95 Q3'95 Q1'96 Q3'96 Q1'97 Q3'97 Q1'98 Q3'98 Q1'99 Q3'99 K Tes Q1'00 Q3'00 Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Source: DuPont Teijin Films ource: DuPont Teijin Films and Industry estimates Market CAGR 2.0%
18 PET Film Demand North America K Tes Q1'01 Q3'01 Q1'02 Q3'02 Q1'03 Q3'03 Q1'04 Source: DuPont Teijin Films Market
19 Q1 '99 Q2 '99 Q3 '99 Q4 '99 Q1 '00 Q2 '00 Q3 '00 Q4 '00 Q1'01 Q2'01 Q3'01 Q4'01 Utilization (%) Q1'02 Q2'02 Q3'02 Q4'02 Q1'03 Q2'03 Q3'03 Q4'03 Q1'04 PET Film Industry Utilization Source: DuPont Teijin Films
20 Impact On Converters Dynamic price pressure retailers driving costs out of value chain raw material price pressure up through value chain demand/supply imbalance global economics changing regional differences More losers than winners more consolidation winners will win big US growth limited exciting new markets - - high risk significant churn (total growth > total decline) Innovation absolutely key Huge consequences from any mistakes Supply continuity will be increasingly more important Need to change business model for success
21 Summary Converter Industry innovation and scale essential economics will necessitate new business models need to focus on the what vs the how more consolidation PETF Industry global leverage innovation most critical new business models required more consolidation
22 World s Premier Producer of Polyester Films Melinex, Mylar, and Cronar are registered trademarks of DuPont Teijin Films U.S. Limited Partnership. Teijin and Tetoron are registered trademarks of Teijin Limited and are licensed to DuPont Teijin Films US, Limited Partnership. Teonex is registered trademark of Teijin DuPont Films Japan Limited and licensed to DuPont Teijin Films U.S. Limited Partnership. Copyright 2003 DuPont Teijin Films (UK) Ltd. All rights reserved.
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