Understanding the Decline in Manufacturing Employment

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1 Understanding the Decline in Manufacturing Emplyment Susan Huseman Upjhn Institute fr Emplyment Research Presentatin prepared fr Manufacturing Frum, Ecnmic Plicy Institute, Washingtn, DC, January 12, 2018

2 Precipitus and unprecedented decline in U.S. manufacturing emplyment in 2000s Manufacturing Emplyment and Number f Establishments Emplyment, 1,000s 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 0 # establishments Emplyment Establishments Sparked debate ver causes f the decline: trade v. autmatin. In this talk: Discuss misunderstanding & misrepresentatin f mfg data Review research evidence n trade v. autmatin debate

3 Decline in manufacturing utput & emplyment shares especially prevalent since 1970s, track each ther. 250 But, manufacturing real 200 utput grwth kept pace with aggregate utput 50 grwth in ecnmy Real GDP: Private Industry and Manufacturing, 1977= Private industries Manufacturing

4 Real GDP: Manfacturing and Private Industry; Manufacturing GDP and Emplyment Share Index, 2009=100 Share, % Private industries, real GDP Mfg GDP share Manufacturing, real GDP Mfg emplyment share Hw t recncile tw pictures Prevailing view: Prices f dmestic manufactured gds falling relative t dmestic services prices Prductivity grwth much higher in manufacturing Cnsumer demand fr manufactured prducts limited

5 Prevailing view: Rapid prductivity grwth explains the decline in manufacturing emplyment share Labr prductivity defined as utput (value added) per unit labr input (wrkers r hurs). It fllws that: e m e p = (y m y p ) (prd m prd p ) Where e, y, and prd are emplyment, utput, and labr prductivity grwth rates fr manufacturing and the aggregate private sectr. If the utput grwth rates in manufacturing and the private sectr are the same, then prductivity accunts fr ALL f the decline in manufacturing s emplyment share. Cnclusin: Nt a causal relatinship, but descriptive evidence cmpelling Prductivity, in the frm f autmatin, caused the relative (and abslute) decline in manufacturing emplyment The decline was inevitable

6 Cnclusin ften repeated as fact in mainstream media Frm an ecnmic perspective... there can be n revival f American manufacturing, because there has been n cllapse. Because f autmatin, there are far fewer jbs in factries. But the value f stuff made in America reached a recrd high in the first quarter f 2016, even after adjusting fr inflatin. Binyamin Appelbaum, New Yrk Times, 2016

7 Alternate (crrect) recnciliatin: Measurement issue Manufacturing s falling relative prices, rbust utput grwth, and extrardinary prductivity grwth driven by ne industry: cmputer and electrnics prducts Cmputer industry accunts fr less than 15% f manufacturing GDP Outsized effect reflects statistical adjustment f cmputers and semicnductr price deflatrs fr imprvements in prduct quality Extrardinary prductivity grwth in cmputer industry by extensin in manufacturing reflects prduct imprvements, nt autmatin Skews statistics, gives misleading impressin abut sectr s health

8 Manufacturing prices nt falling relative t ther industry prices utside cmputer industry Price deflatrs, private industries and manufacturing, 1987= Price deflatrs fr cmputer industry rapidly declining after 1960s, reflects quality adjustment fr prduct imprvements Private ind, as published Excluding cmputer industry, manufacturing prices are nt falling relative t private sectr prices. Mfg, as published Index, 1987= Price Deflatr Indices, Private Industry and Manufacturing Omitting Cmputer Industry, Cmputer Industry Private industry, w/ cmputers Mfg, w/ cmputers Cmputer industry

9 Manufacturing real GDP grwth much slwer withut cmputer industry Mfg GDP grwth 45% f private sectr GDP grwth, %, Manufacturing utput less in 2016 than in 2007.

10 20,000 Real GDP: Private Industry and Manufacturing less Cmputers, Cmputer Industry, 1977=100 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, Private industries, less cmputers Manufacturing, less cmputers Cmputers Despite driving apparent rbust manufacturing grwth, dmestic manufacturing f cmputer & electrnic prducts lsing cmpetitiveness Huseman, Bartik, Sturgen (2016)

11 Grwth in dmestic cnsumptin fr manufactured prducts has been greater than fr services recently Since 2000, dmestic real cnsumptin f manufactured prducts (excluding cmputer and electrnics prducts) grwn at 2.8% per year, cmpared t 1.8% fr services Grwth in dmestic cnsumptin f furniture especially high at 3.5% Cnsistent with fld f cheap imprted prducts increasing cnsumer demand

12 Manufacturing prductivity grwth nt higher, r nly smewhat higher, than that in private industry Withut cmputer and electrnics prducts industry, labr and multifactr prductivity has been apprximately the same in manufacturing and private industry, (Baily and Bswrth 2015) If prductivity grwth the same, it can accunt fr NONE f the decline in manufacturing s emplyment share Lwer utput grwth accunts fr all f the decline in manufacturing s emplyment share Alternate calculatins, using histrical emplyment data back t 1977: Slwer utput grwth accunts fr the majrity f the decline in manufacturing s emplyment share histrically. N prima facie case that prductivity grwth caused relative emplyment declines in manufacturing

13 Interpreting prductivity grwth Prductivity grwth autmatin Measured prductivity grwth may be capturing many things besides autmatin: Prduct imprvements, as in cmputers and semicnductrs Changes in the cmpsitin f prducts prduced: Prductivity grwth may be the cnsequence f trade cmpetitin if labr intensive prcesses mve verseas. Glbal supply chains and slicing up f the value chain may alter the stages f prductin dne in U.S., raising prductivity grwth Internatinal cmpetitin may spur autmatin Prductivity grwth des nt, per se, cause emplyment declines Strng argument that decline in manufacturing emplyment inevitable based n misreading f accunting identities Accunting identities and ther descriptive evidence cannt be interpreted as causal

14 Research finds large effects f internatinal trade n manufacturing jb lsses in 2000s Exchange rates, industry subsidies and taxes, tariffs, nn-tariff barriers affect relative cmpetitiveness f manufacturing in U.S. Glbalizatin may reduce dmestic manufacturing utput grwth by: Increasing grwth in real imprts Slwing grwth in real exprts cmpanies chse t relcate r expand verseas N study captures all aspects glbalizatin and its effects n manufacturing emplyment but cllectively research findings pint t large adverse effects, perating thrugh varius mechanisms.

15 Selected study findings f effects f trade n manufacturing emplyment lsses in 2000s Imprts frm China can accunt fr 25% f decline in manufacturing emplyment (Autr, Drn, Hansn 2013) Changes in trade plicy after 2000 caused increase in imprts frm China (bth frm Chinese exprters and U.S. based imprters) and significant decline in manufacturing emplyment (Pierce and Schtt 2016) Shift t less labr-intensive als led t significant emplyment declines Imprts frm China have als depressed investment, R&D, and sales in dmestic manufacturing (Autr et al. 2017, Pierce and Schtt 2017) Appreciatin f dllar and higher labr csts can explain mre than tw-thirds f decline in manufacturing emplyment in early 2000s, as well as declines in 1980s (Campbell 2016).

16 Research fails t find a causal link between technlgy and cllapse f manufacturing emplyment in 2000s Little evidence that IT investment and investment in advanced manufacturing technlgies increased labr prductivity, especially after 1990s (Acemuglu et al. 2014) Where crrelatins exist, assciated with declines in utput and even faster declines in emplyment (suggesting smething besides technlgical displacement ging n). Industries experiencing increased cmpetitin frm China had emplyment declines; industries susceptible t cmputerizatin f rutine tasks experienced plarizatin f ccupatins, NOT emplyment declines (Autr, Drn, Hansn 2015) Industrial rbts have ptential t displace many wrkers in future, but effect n manufacturing emplyment t date minimal (Acemglu and Restrep 2017) Rise f markups since 1980s and ffshring f labr intensive prcesses (nt capital investment) accunt fr rise f capital share (De Lecker and Eeckhut 2017; Elsby, Hbijn, Sahin 2013) incnsistent with large technlgy shck causing emplyment declines, rise in capital share

17 Why manufacturing matters Number f wrkers engaged in manufacturing still large: Abut half f wrkers needed in manufacturing nw emplyed utside the sectr Large spillver effects n lcal and natinal ecnmy Plant clsures have large adverse and lasting effects n wrkers and cmmunities: Dislcated wrkers experience large, persistent earnings lsses Large adverse shcks can send reginal ecnmies int dwnward spiral, depress regins fr decades (Dix-Carnair and Kvak, 2017) Cllapse f manufacturing emplyment cntributed t decline in emplyment rates, especially amng less-educated men and wmen (Charles et al. 2016, Autr et al. 2016) Lss f prductin leads t lss f R&D: Cnclusin f MIT Prductin in the Innvatin Ecnmy prject (Berger 2013)

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