First-Time Electronic Data on Out-of-Home and Time-Shifted Television Viewing New Insights About Who, What and When

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1 First-Time Electronic Data on Out-of-Home and Time-Shifted Television Viewing New Insights About Who, What and When Bob Patchen, vice president, Research Standards and Practices Beth Webb, manager, PPM Methods and Analysis portable people meter 05-PPM-934 6/05 1

2 The New Ratings Paradigm When it comes to media planning, the new mantra among leading advertisers is:» I need to know my customers! I need to know who they are, what they re doing, and when and where they are doing it.» I need to know how to reach my customers throughout the day, wherever they are, using the most efficient and effective means available.» These goals cannot be met with the existing television ratings systems. Why does having electronic data on out-of-home and time-shifted viewing matter? Because when it comes to media planning, the new mantra among advertisers is: I need to know my customers! I need to know who they are, what they re doing, and when and where they are doing it. I need to know how to reach my customers throughout the day, wherever they are, using the most efficient and effective means available. And these goals cannot be met with the existing television ratings systems. 3

3 The PPM SM Measures Total Viewing The PPM is wireless and portable, so it measures viewing both at home and out of home. It measures both live and time-shifted viewing, automatically, for each metered person. For the first time we can electronically measure all TV consumption, whenever and wherever it occurs. However, PPM measures total viewing. It s wireless and portable, so it measures both at home and out-of-home viewing. It automatically measures both live and time-shifted viewing for each person. So for the first time all TV consumption can be electronically measured wherever it occurs. 4

4 Many of you are already familiar with the PPM system, so I ll just provide a quick overview. When a household is recruited to join the PPM panel, each person age 6 and older is provided with their own personal meter and recharger, shown in the picture. The panelist is given three simple instructions to follow: undock the meter upon awakening, wear it all day, and dock it when you go to bed. Since the meter has a motion detector, we know on any given day if the panelist complied with these instructions. The meter automatically detects exposure to encoded audio. These exposure data are downloaded by the recharger and sent to a household data hub, which is connected to the household telephone in order to send the data back to Arbitron. 5

5 The Houston PPM Test Houston DMA (population 5.1 million) Final panel size (July 2005)» 2,100 persons age 6+» Roughly 800 households» Installation is ongoing Most media outlets encoding for the test» 16 local TV stations» 46 cable channels» 43 radio stations The data in this presentation are from our ongoing test panel located in the Houston DMA, which has a population of 5.1 million. The final panel size that will be achieved by July 2005 will be 2,100 persons ages 6+ in approximately 800 households. There are 16 local TV stations, 46 cable channels and 43 radio stations encoding in the market. 6

6 Survey Dates and Sample Data for Today s Preliminary Report Two weeks: April 28-May 11, ,393 total persons installed in 531 households as of May 1, 2005 Representative random sample of the total Houston television market Today s data are based on the first two weeks in the May survey month: April 28 May 11. At that point, three independent sample replicates, each of which is a representative random sample of the marketplace, had been installed. The installed sample size was approximately 1,400 persons in 530 households. 7

7 PPM In-Tab Persons vs. Universe Race/Ethnicity Universe PPM Black 20% 16% Hispanic Other Race/Ethnicity Hispanic Language Use 31% 30% 50% 53% Spanish-Dominant Hispanic 16% 17% English-Dominant Hispanic 15% 14% May 2005, Waves 1-3 On the next few bar charts, the gold bar on top is the population estimate, and the blue bar is the average daily in-tab sample percentage. As you can see, the in-tab sample closely represents the population on all of these demographic variables: race/ethnicity, language use among Hispanics... 8

8 PPM In-Tab Persons vs. Universe Employment Status (P18+) Universe PPM Employed Full Time 59% 59% Not Employed Full Time 41% 41% Reception Type Cable and/or Satellite 72% 74% No Cable or Satellite 28% 26% May 2005, Waves employment status, TV reception type... 9

9 PPM In-Tab Persons vs. Universe Sex/Age Group Universe PPM Children 6-11 Teens Women Women Women 55+ Men Men Men 55+ 9% 10% 12% 10% 12% 13% 10% 11% 11% 14% 9% 9% 19% 17% 18% 17% May 2005, Waves and sex/age group. 10

10 Meters Are Undocked and Worn or Carried Nearly All Day Out of Dock Carried 15:35 14:38 All In-Tab Persons Average Daily n = 917 May 2005, Waves 1-3, In-Tab Persons 6+, Median Times And the motion data show that in-tab panelists had their meters undocked and in motion nearly all day. 11

11 Important Limitations Results are preliminary, not final Data represent only one U.S. market Data cover only two weeks in May 2005» Seasonal effects likely, such as for sports viewing (e.g., Houston Rockets were in the NBA basketball play-offs) Results are based on less than the full planned panel size of 2,100 persons» July 2005 full-panel data release this September Differences not tested for statistical significance Before getting to the out-of-home and time-shifting results, I do want to stress that these data are preliminary. They represent only one U.S. market and cover only two weeks in May. There may be seasonal effects during these weeks. For example, both the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs were in the play-offs during this week. This may have affected the percentage of out-of-home viewing. It could also have driven some time-shifting if people recorded the game or frequently rewound to rewatch plays. In addition, these results are based on less than the full planned sample size. Data from July reflecting the full panel size will be released in September. And finally, it should be noted that at this point we re simply looking at directional patterns, so none of these differences have been tested for statistical significance. 12

12 Out-of-Home (OOH) Viewing portable people meter Let s look at the out-of-home viewing first. 13

13 How the At-Home Beacon Works Data Collection Hub Installed in Home Low-Power Radio Waves PPM In-home data collection hub emits low-power radio frequency (RF). The PPM unit reports at home when RF detected, out of home when RF not detected. To determine panelist location, a low-power radio frequency transmitter has been placed in the household s data collection hub. The meter determines location status based upon the presence or absence of this transmission. 14

14 Radio s OOH Share Is Generally Higher with PPM But Consistent with Diary Pattern Houston DMA, April 28-May 11, 2005, Persons % 75% 74% 65% 63% 65% 82% 77% 71% 70% 62% 50% 38% 25% 0% 6AM-12Mid 6AM-10AM 10AM-3PM 3PM-7PM 7PM-12Mid OOH Share of Total AQH Rating Radio Diary PPM Before looking at the TV results, let s compare the PPM radio out-of-home percentages to those reported by the radio diary. For each daypart, the blue bar on the left shows the percentage of out-of-home viewing as reported by the diary, and the gold bar on the right is the PPM percentage. The PPM generally shows a higher out-of-home percentage, but the overall pattern by daypart is consistent with the diary. In morning drive, the PPM and the diary report almost the same out-of-home percentage, while the PPM reports higher out-of-home in the other dayparts. 15

15 Share of Total AQH Rating from OOH Viewing Preliminary Data, Houston Panel, April 28-May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 13% At Home Out of Home 87% NB: OOH share for these dates was impacted by NBA Play- Off games with Houston and San Antonio, TX, teams. For television, the overall out-of-home viewing percentage reported by PPM for these two weeks is 13%. Again, this is a figure for this two week period and there may be a number of things influencing it. In particular, many of the basketball playoff games during this period were only on cable and since 26% of panelists live in households without cable, if they wanted to watch the games they had to watch them out-of-home. 16

16 Index of OOH Viewing Consistent Across Sexes Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Person % QHs OOH Indexed to P Total Male Female Next we'll look at the relationships by demos. In the next few bar graphs Out of home percentages by demo are indexed to the Persons 6+ overall percentage. Males 6+ index at 105 and Females 6+ index at 96 so the percentage of viewing that is out of home is pretty consistent across sex. 17

17 Persons Have Highest OOH Index Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons % QHs OOH Indexed to P Age 6-17 Age Age 50+ Persons 18+ show considerably more out-of-home viewing than those under 18 with persons showing the highest amount with an index of

18 Other, Black Have Higher OOH Indexes Than Hispanic Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons % QHs OOH Indexed to P Black Hispanic Other By race/ethnicity, Hispanics show the lowest percentage of out-of-home viewing. The 'other' category, which consists of all non-black and non-hispanic persons, indexes the highest at 110 and blacks are just slightly lower at

19 Black Persons Showed Highest Overall OOH Index Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons % QHs OOH Indexed to P Black Hispanic Other However, if you look at Persons 18-49, blacks index the highest with an index of 125. Again, initial analyses suggest that this might be a basketball effect. 20

20 Out-of-Home Television Viewing: Some Common Myths Mostly in bars and restaurants Mostly men watching sports Primarily nights and weekends Little if any viewer attention Low-value audience The conventional wisdom about out-of-home television viewing is that it takes place mostly in bars and restaurants and consists of mostly men who are watching sportsoriented programming. The belief is that it takes place mostly on nights and weekends and is a low-value audience due to lack of viewer attention. We've already shown in a previous slide that part of this isn't true that men and women have roughly equal percentages of out-of-home viewing overall. 21

21 Viewing at Work Is Far More Common Than Viewing in Bars and Restaurants U.S. OOH Viewing Locations by Percent of OOH Viewing Minutes (2003) Someone else s home 57% At work 24% Bar/restaurant 5% Doctor s/dentist s office 4% All other places 10% In-tab (P18+) 1,493 Total OOH QHs 2,845 Source: Arbitron Media Lifestyles study, Wi 2003, Total P18+, Top 100 DMAs However, there have been data to contradict this. In an Arbitron telephone study conducted in 100 DMAs, respondents were asked to report their yesterday TV and radio consumption along with location. In this study, most out-of-home viewing was reported as taking place at someone else s home, but the second most frequent category, with 24 percent of the out-of-home viewing, was at work. At work, of course, doesn t just include offices. At work includes convenience stores, hospitals, factories, airports all sorts of places where a TV might be available and types of jobs where workers might bring their own portable TV, such as a security guard, gas station attendant or toll booth worker. The amount of viewing at work was almost five times higher than the amount reported in bars and restaurants. 22

22 Total OOH AQH Audience Builds Throughout the Day and Peaks at 9PM Houston Panel, Mon-Sun, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12N 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12Mid 1AM AQH Persons Weekday Weekend Total week This chart shows AQH persons viewing out of home by hour, and it is consistent with the hypothesis that out of home viewing is on nights and weekends. Audience builds throughout the day, peaking at 9PM. The weekday and weekend patterns are very similar, though weekends show somewhat more daytime out-of-home viewing. 23

23 But OOH Overall Share of Audience Is Largest in Daytime Houston Panel, Mon-Sun, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12N 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12Mid 1AM % of Total TV Viewing Weekday Weekend Total But if you look at out-of-home viewing as a share of total television viewing, you see that the peak is actually during the daytime. This means that on a percentage basis, the daytime ratings are most affected when out-of-home viewing is not included in the total television viewing. This is also consistent with the fact that the difference between PPM and meter-diary TV ratings tended to be much larger during the daytime period than during evening or prime time. 24

24 For Both Men and Women 18-49, OOH Viewing Share Peaks 1PM-4PM Houston Panel Mon-Sun, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12N 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12Mid 1AM % of Total TV Viewing W18-49 M18-49 Looking at just Persons 18-49, the share of out-of-home audience peaks between 1PM and 4PM for both men and women. Men have a larger percentage of OOH viewing during the evening, while the daytime OOH share of viewing is about equal between men and women. However, since women s AQH ratings are considerably higher than men s during the daytime period, particularly on weekdays 25

25 Women Dominate Daytime OOH Viewing; Men Are Higher in Prime Houston Panel, Mon-Fri, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons NBA Play-Offs? AQH Persons Soaps & Oprah? 5AM 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12N 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM 11PM 12Mid 1AM W18-49 M18-49 If you look at OOH audience on a rating or AQH Persons basis, there are more women than men watching TV out of home during the day when top-rated programs include soap operas and talk shows such as Oprah or Dr. Phil. And, consistent with the share curve, at night between about 9PM and 11PM, there are more men than women viewing out of home. Perhaps some of this is due to the NBA basketball play-offs during this time? 26

26 Top Five Channels Based on Share of Their Audience in OOH Locations Houston Panel, Total Week, Total Day, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ CNBC The Speed Channel ESPN2 Galavision CNN During this two-week period, the top five channels as ranked by the percent of their audience that was out of home were CNBC, The Speed Channel (which primarily consists of programs related to auto and motorcycle racing), ESPN2, Galavision and CNN. 27

27 The Announcement of the Michael Jackson Verdict Drives Jump in Percentage of OOH Viewing Houston Panel, Unweighted, Persons 6+ Previous 3 Mondays, 4:00PM-4:30PM Monday, June 13, 4:00PM-4:30Pm 100% % of QHs OOH 75% 50% 25% 29% +55% 45% +70% 28% 16% 0% CNN ABC Affiliate And now, some late-breaking news. On the afternoon of Monday, June 13, a verdict was rendered in the Michael Jackson trial. The PPM showed that CNN and the local ABC affiliate, which has a news program during this time period, saw a significant bump in their overall ratings due to this news. And as shown in this chart, this increase in overall ratings was at least partly due to an increase in out-of-home ratings, which makes sense since many people would be away from home on a Monday afternoon between 4PM and 4:30PM. CNN showed a 55 percent increase in the percentage of their audience that was out of home as compared to a typical Monday afternoon, while there was a 70 percent increase in out-of-home share for the ABC affiliate. 28

28 Preliminary Conclusions About Out-of-Home Viewing Preliminary results are consistent with substantial at-work viewing OOH TV viewing provides opportunities to reach both women and men Daytime is best for reaching Women OOH Prime time is best for reaching Men OOH Some preliminary conclusions about out-of-home viewing: Preliminary results are consistent with substantial at-work viewing. Out-of-home TV viewing provides opportunities to reach both women and men. Daytime is best for reaching Women out of home. Prime time is best for reaching Men out of home. For all the reasons mentioned in the Important Limitations slide, these conclusions as well as the overall percentages should be considered preliminary. It will be important to see if these patterns hold up over time. 29

29 Time-Shifted Viewing portable people meter Now on to time-shifted viewing 30

30 Goals for PPM Time-Shift Reporting Identify personal exposures delayed by three minutes or more Purpose is to measure and understand propensity for delayed viewing by program, genre and daypart Not intended to measure commercial zipping and zapping today, but this is possible going forward The goal of PPM time-shift reporting is to identify personal exposures delayed by three minutes or more in order to measure and understand propensity for delayed viewing by program, genre and daypart. At this time, PPM is not intended to measure commercial zipping and zapping, though this will likely be possible going forward. 31

31 Time-Shifted TV Exposure How is time-shifting detected? Broadcast time stamp with one-minute granularity embedded into media code Broadcast time stamp compared to exposure time stamp from meter to determine if shifted Only viewing that takes place within seven days of the broadcast time is credited To be able to detect time-shifting, a broadcast time stamp with one-minute granularity is inserted into the media code. When a PPM detects a media code, it can also detect this time stamp. This broadcast time stamp is compared to the time stamp from the meter, which indicates when the exposure took place in order to determine whether or not the viewing was time-shifted. All time-shifted viewing is then credited to the original broadcast time so that the correct program will receive credit for the viewing. It s important to note that since we finalize data after seven days, only viewing that takes place within seven days of the broadcast time is included. 32

32 Panelists in DVR Households Much More Likely to Have Time-Shifted Viewing Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 20% % of QHs Time-Shifted 10% 10.4% 0% 1.4% Persons in HHs Without DVRs Persons in HHs with DVRs Not surprisingly, the PPM data show that panelists in DVR households are much more likely to view time-shifted programming. 1.4 percent of the viewing by panelists in non-dvr households is time-shifted. This time-shifting could be done by VCR, or it could possibly be out-of-home DVR exposure we haven t yet done any analyses cross-tabbing out-of-home and time-shifted to determine this. In DVR households, overall, 10.4 percent of total quarter-hours are viewed timeshifted, though, as we ll see later, this varies considerably by daypart. 33

33 Panelists in DVR Households Average Slightly More Overall Viewing per Day Than Persons in Non-DVR Households Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005 Persons 6+ 8 Avg. Hrs. of Viewing per Day Hrs. 5.7 Hrs. 0 Persons in HHs Without DVRs Persons in HHs with DVRs It s also interesting to note that panelists in DVR households watch slightly more TV overall than panelists in non-dvr households an average of 5.7 hours per day versus

34 To Date, DVR Penetration in the Houston Panel Is Below 10% 7.3% of installed households reported owning a DVR 7.5% of installed panelists lived in households that reported owning a DVR Installed Percentages of 4/28/05 Since the vast majority of time-shifting is taking place in DVR households, the rest of the data will focus only on DVR households. In May, 7.3 percent of installed households reporting having a DVR, and this represented about 7.5 percent of installed panelists. 35

35 Panelists and Most Likely to Live in DVR Households Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 20% % Persons in DVR Households 10% 6.2% 8.3% 8.7% 7.2% 0% P6-17 P18-34 P35-54 P55+ Panelists ages are most likely to live in a household with a DVR, though there weren t large differences by age. 36

36 Black and Hispanic Panelists Less Likely to Live in DVR Households Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ 20% % Persons in DVR Households 10% 3.9% 5.8% 10.3% 0% Black Hispanic Other Black and Hispanic panelists are less likely than those of other races/ethnicities to live in a DVR household. 37

37 Total Time-Shifted Viewing Consistent Across Sex Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ in DVR Households 20% % of QHs Time-Shifted 10% 10.7% 10.4% 0% Male Female The next few slides compare the overall, total day, total week time-shifting percentages across some variables. The percentage of time-shifted viewing by panelists in DVR households does not differ by sex; it s 10.7 percent for men and 10.4 percent for women. 38

38 Time-Shifting Viewing is Relatively Stable by Age Group Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ in DVR Households 20% % of QHs Time-Shifted 10% 9.0% 11.0% 10.0% 0% Age 6-17 Age Age 50+ There are also relatively small differences in the amount of time-shifting across age groups. 39

39 Prime-Time Programs Are Most Likely To Be Time-Shifted Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, 2005, Persons 6+ in DVR Households 25% % of QHs Time-Shifted 20% 15% 10% 5% 10.6% 2.4% 6.8% 9.6% 20.7% 14.3% 6.3% 0% Total Day (5AM- 1AM) 5AM-9AM 9AM-4PM 4PM-7PM 7PM-9PM 9PM- 11PM 11PM- 1AM This chart shows the percentage of time-shifted viewing based upon the broadcast time of the program. Not surprisingly, prime-time programs are the most likely to be time-shifted. About 21 percent of prime-time viewing is time-shifted. 40

40 The Vast Majority of Time-Shifted Programming Is Viewed Within One-day Time-Shifted Minutes, Unweighted, Houston Panel, April 28 May 11, % 84% 80% % of Time-Shifted Minutes 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Within 24 Hours of Broadcast 13% Hours After Broadcast 3% 48 Hours or More After Broadcast The vast majority of time-shifted programming 84 percent is viewed within 24 hours of the broadcast time. Thirteen percent is viewed 24 to 48 hours after the broadcast time, while only 3 percent is viewed two to seven days after the broadcast time. 41

41 Programs with Most Time-Shifted Viewing for April 28-May 11, 2005 May 10 American Idol May 3 American Idol May 8 Desperate Housewives May 11 Lost May 4 Lost Not surprisingly, the programs during this two-week period with the most timeshifted audience consisted of programs that had some of the top-rated overall audiences: two episodes of American Idol, an episode of Desperate Housewives and two episodes of Lost. 42

42 Considerable Variation in Time-Shifting Behavior Time-shifting on individual days ranged from 0% to 100% Averaging over the entire two-week period, individual panelist time-shifting ranged from 0% to 65% In many households, time-shifting behavior varies greatly among household members Additionally, an important thing to note that I don t believe has been fully explored in the DVR research thus far is that there is great variation in individual time-shifting behavior. Looking at individual days, the percentages of time-shifting ranged from zero percent to 100 percent. When we looked at individual panelists and aggregated their data over the two-week period in order to get the total percentage of their viewing that was time-shifted over two weeks, this percentage ranged from zero precent to 65 percent. But what was most interesting was the extent to which individuals within the same household showed varied amounts of time-shifting. The next few charts show time-shifted percentages from some individual households. 43

43 In Some Households, Members Show Similar Percentages of Time-Shifted Viewing April 28 May 11, % 40% Two-Person DVR Household 30% 27% 25% 20% 10% 0% Person 1 Person 2 In some households, as shown in this chart, individuals showed very similar overall percentages. This is a two-person household. Over the two-week period, 27 percent of Person 1 s viewing was time-shifted as was 25 percent of Person 2 s viewing. 44

44 In Others, Household Members Showed More Varied Percentages of Time-Shifting April 28 May 11, % 40% Three-Person DVR Household 44% 33% 30% 23% 20% 10% 0% Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 This chart shows a three-person household in which the percentage of time-shifted viewing varied a bit more among the household members from 23 percent to 44 percent. However, all the household members showed some time-shifted viewing. 45

45 In Some HHs, Individual Members Don t Have Any Time-Shifting at All April 28 May 11, % 40% Five-Person DVR Household 30% 20% 25% 23% 27% 21% 10% 0% 0% Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 4 Person 5 There are some households in which one or two members of the household don t do any time-shifted viewing at all. This is an example of a five-person household, where four of the people show similar percentages of time-shifting, but the fifth person appears to not use the DVR at all. 46

46 In Others, It Appears That the DVR Is a Personal Device April 28 May 11, % 40% 30% Five-Person DVR Household 20% 19% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Person 1 Person 2 Person 3 Person 4 Person 5 In other households, such as this one, where only one household member shows time-shifted viewing, it appears that the DVR is actually a personal device rather than a household device. Perhaps this is a roommate situation or a case where a teenage or young adult child has the DVR in his or her bedroom. 47

47 Preliminary Conclusions About Time-Shifted Viewing Overall, only about two percent of viewing is timeshifted, but 10 percent of viewing is time-shifted in DVR households. As DVR penetration grows, clearly the overall percentage of viewing that is time-shifted will grow. Prime-time programs are most likely to be timeshifted, with highest-rated programs showing the most time-shifting. Within DVR households, there is considerable person-to-person variation in the amount of timeshifting. So our preliminary conclusions on time-shifting are: Overall, only about two percent of viewing is time-shifted, but 10 percent of viewing is time-shifted in DVR households. As DVR penetration grows, clearly the overall percentage of viewing that is timeshifted will grow. Prime-time programs are most likely to be time-shifted, with highest-rated programs showing the most time-shifting. Within DVR households, there is considerable person-to-person variation in the amount of time-shifting. 48

48 Next Steps Complete data for July with the full panel size will be released in September. Client software application will provide breakouts for out-of-home and time-shifted viewing. We will work with customers to explore the dynamics of out-of-home and time-shifted viewing. We look forward to many new learnings in both of these areas. Clearly, this is just the tip of the iceberg. Complete data for July, which will consist of the full planned sample size of 2,100 persons, will be available in September. We will, of course, work with customers to better understand the dynamics of both out-of-home and time-shifted viewing, and we look forward to many new learnings in both of these areas. 49

49 Stay Tuned! Thank you! So, stay tuned for more! Thank you. 50

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