Enabling environment for sustainable growth and development of cable and broadband infrastructures

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1 Enabling environment for sustainable growth and development of cable and broadband infrastructures Matthias Kurth Geneva 25 January 2018

2 Cable operators reach more than half of European households and constitute a major actor in the European digital landscape % of homes passed by cable per country Overview of the Cable companies place in the EU digital landscape , EU % 60-80% 40-60% 20-40% 0-20% n.d. 48% 57% 80% n 26 markets in Europe with 119 M homes passed 54% of EU28 homes (63% when excluding Italy and Greece) 66% 99% 96% 79% 60% 55% 41% 87% 69% n 56 M subscribers accessing TV via cable 87% 61% 86% 38% 76% 54% 63% 54% 80% 55% 94% n 32 M subscribers connected to internet via cable 0% 100% 31% 53% 0% n Total revenues exceeding 21 bn 56% Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission Digital Agenda, IHS, cable companies websites & annual reports, press releases, Screendigest 2011, WiK, Credit Suisse, jcta.

3 Cable is a major actor in its footprint with 57% of the consumers adopting cable for at least one cable service % of homes passed Penetration of cable in its footprint , EU M homes passed Other 43% 68 M unique cable subscribers Cable 57% Penetration of cable in its footprint Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission Digital Agenda, IHS, cable companies websites & annual reports, press releases, Screendigest 2011, WiK, Credit Suisse, jcta

4 Cable is currently the largest provider of Next Generation Access (NGA) despite its lower share in broadband subscriptions Broadband subscription and NGA penetration by technology , EU 28 - % of broadband and NGA subscriptions (NGA; 30 Mbps) Other FTTP - Fiber To The Property 1 Cable (Docsis 3.0) 8% 18% 25% 100% 49% DSL (VDSL) 70% 25% Share of BB subscriptions Share of NGA subscriptions Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission Digital Agenda. 1. Includes Fiber To The Home (FTTH) and Fiber To The Building (FTTB)

5 Cable is the technology most able to connect a large base of the population with next-generation very high speed access in Europe M or % of home passed NGA coverage by technology , EU 28 - n 98% of the cable network is upgraded with DOCSIS % 53% 41% n n 71% of European homes are passed by at least one NGA Compared to other technologies, Cable has the highest coverage of Next Generation Access (NGA; 30 Mbps) in Europe % 45 53% of EU 28 households passed by cable NGA (63% when excluding Italy & Greece) 41% for VDSL Total EU Households Cable Homes Passed NGA coverage (Homes Passed) 21% for Fiber To The Property (including FTTH and FTTB) Cable vdsl FTTP Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission Digital Agenda, IHS, cable companies websites & annual reports, press releases, Screendigest 2011, WiK, Credit Suisse, jcta

6 Cable operators are at the forefront of high-speed access and keep investing in a future-proof technology, which will progressively deliver performance expected from FTTH and 5G Broadband access technology roadmap (actual downstream speed range) Actual downstream speed range (mbps) Gigabit broadband FTTH DOCSIS 3.1 5G 800 DOCSIS ch 200 DOCSIS 3.0 4ch G.fast 100 DOCSIS VDSL2 - Vect LTE-A 50 VDSL VDSL LTE 20 DOCSIS 2.0 DOCSIS 1.0 ADSL 2 10 ADSL GPRS UMTS Edge HSPA 0 HSPA Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, Alcatel, Cablelabs Year of first deployments Cable Mobile Copper G.fast Fiber

7 Cable operators have been continuously investing in their networks over the last 5 years and will continue to do so: CableCos have higher capex/sales ratio than other operators Capex to sales by operator type (evolution and split by country) , EU 28 - Fixed capex to sales 1 in %, by operator type 30% Fixed capex to sales in %, average of main EU operators, by operator type 30% 25% Cable 25% Av. 20,4% 20% Altnet 20% Av. 16,0% 15% Incumbent 15% Av. 15,8% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% WE 13 WE 12 WE 11 WE 10 WE 8 WE 9 WE 7 WE 6 WE 5 WE 4 CEE 6 WE 3 WE 2 WE 1 CEE 5 CEE 4 CEE 3 CEE 2 CEE 1 CEE 8 WE 14 WE 13 WE 12 WE 11 CEE 7 CEE 6 WE 9 WE 10 CEE 5 WE 8 WE 7 WE 6 WE 5 WE 4 WE 3 CEE 4 CEE 3 CEE 2 WE 2 WE 1 CEE 1 WE 14 WE 13 WE 12 WE 11 WE 10 WE 9 WE 8 WE 7 WE 6 CEE 4 WE 5 CEE 5 WE 4 CEE 3 CEE 2 WE 3 CEE 1 WE 2 WE 1 European average Cable Incumbent Altnet Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, Ovum, Credit Suisse, Bank of America, Broker reports, Annual reports, New Street Research. 1. Computed by taking weighted average capex and sales figures

8 Cable operators fuel infrastructure-based competition and play a key role in the competitive dynamics of EU digital markets (1/2): CableCos push incumbents to deploy NGA technology Technology coverage in %, by country Highest coverage of VDSL or FTTP Correlation between Cable coverage and VDSL / FTTP coverage , EU 28 - VDSL FTTP 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% EL IT HR FR PL 0% Cable coverage 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission - Study on broadband coverage in Europe in Note: The VDSL/FTTP coverage per country is that of the technology (VDSL or FTTP) that has the highest coverage GB SI CZ LV CY SE SK ES EU 28 BG AT IE EE DE FI DK HU LT PT LU RO BE MT NL For each 10% increase in cable coverage, there is a 6% increase in NGA incumbent coverage

9 In cable markets, operators broadband retail prices have been decreasing by 29% over the period Evolution of broadband retail price , EU 28 splited by cable and non cable market 2 - Index of average broadband prices, 2011 = 100, cable market includes countries with cable coverage >60% 140 Index Single play - Cable Markets Single play - Non cable markets Triple play - Cable Markets Triple play - Non cable markets mbps download speed Δ cable 1P = -41% Δ cable 3P = -21% Source: Arthur D. Little analysis, European Commission Digital Agenda using Van Dijk data. 1. Correspond to the minimum price between similar offers from incumbent, cable and alternative network operators, corrected using Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs). 2. Cable market include countries with over 60% of cable coverage: Malta, Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Romania, Finland, Lithuania, Portugal, Hungary, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, Austria, Spain, Sweden, whenever corresponding offers were found on the national market

10 Policy and regulatory environment plays a key role for cable TV and Broadband Investment per Household in the Electronic Communications Sector in the U.S. and Europe, $/HH 2.2 X 3.1 X n The favorable regulation in the US has enhanced more investment on Cable and Broadband n Recent changes by the FCC on the Net Neutrality order go in the same direction Source: Christopher S. Yoo, University of Pennsylvania

11 European commission launched a massive revision of the regulatory framework to foster private investment in cable and broadband infrastructures to reach a gigabit society Ongoing regulatory legislative processes The Digital Single Market strategy has delivered the main legislative proposals specifically in the topics of: telecoms review audiovisual and media services e-commerce eprivacy + GDPR (enforceable May 2018) copyright harmonisation of digital rights

12 The present discussion still has controversial topics: Joint dominance, duopolies - are two networks enough to enable a competitive market landscape? Symmetric regulation Increase it will endanger investment to modernize infrastructure based competition Less access regulation on Very High Capacity (VHC) networks and shift to co-investment of 2 or more private investors 4 Easy and innovative copyright rules that follow technology evolution (cross border access to content, portability of content, time-shift tv services, catch-up tv, etc.) 5 6 Level playing field with OTT in data protection and privacy rules State Aid has to be limited to white areas (extreme rural) and not finance overbuild of private infrastructures

13 Cable House Avenue des Arts Brussels Belgium Phone: Web:

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