OPPORTUNITIES IN THE LED LUMINAIRE SUPPLY CHAIN. A Strategic Market and Technology Review

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June Maxwell
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1 OPPORTUNITIES IN THE LED LUMINAIRE SUPPLY CHAIN A Strategic Market and Technology Review Unauthorised copying or distribution of this report to any third party (including associated companies) isprohibited. Whilst every effort will be made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information presented, no liability can be accepted by BPA for the consequences of action taken, based upon the information provided. BPA Consulting Ltd Dorset House, Regent Park, 297 Kingston Road, Leatherhead, Surrey, KT22 7PL, UK Tel: Fax: bpa@bpaconsulting.com Website: Report Number 981

2 i LIST OF CONTENTS Section 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2. INTRODUCTION Report Objectives and Methodology Background White Light LED Technologies Efficiency and Operating Parameters Lifetime and Failure 3. MARKET DRIVERS Domestic and Commercial Lighting Street Lighting and Transportation LCD Display Backlighting and Sidelighting Mobile Phones Automotive 4. LED PACKAGING AND ASSEMBLY LED Package Types LED Arrays and Chip on Board Modules and Light Engines LED Package Material Requirements Ceramic Substrate Materials Stamped Circuit Board Adhesives Eutectic Die Attach Encapsulants Lens Reflector Material Reliability Testing and Standards

3 ii LIST OF CONTENTS (cont) Section 5. LED ASSEMBLIES Retrofit Light Bulb Assemblies Parabolic Lighting Specialist and Outdoor Lighting Tube Lighting (TL) Street Lighting LED Backlighting for LCD Display Edge Lighting Technology Full Array Backlighting Backlight for Small Display LED Assemblies in Automotive Materials for Lens, Reflectors and Diffusers Conformal Coatings 6. THERMAL MANAGEMENT AND PCB SUBSTRATE TECHNOLOGIES FOR LED ASSEMBLIES Passive Thermal Management IMS Substrates and Suppliers Ceramic Substrates Thick Film Substrates Novel PCB Technologies Thermal Interface Materials Heatsinks Adhesives Active Thermal Management Cooling by Passive Convection 7. THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND THE VALUE CHAIN LED Key Players The Lighting Industry LED Light Manufacturers Street Lights Substrate Materials Thermal Interface Materials The Value Chain Summary

4 iii LIST OF CONTENTS (cont) Section 8. TECHNOLOGY ROADMAPS AND COST ANALYSIS HB-LED Package Retrofit Light Bulb Technology Roadmap Retrofit Light Bulb Cost Analysis Street Light Technology Roadmap Street Light Cost Analysis LED Backlight Unit Technology Roadmap Backlight Unit, Edge Type, Cost Analysis Automotive Headlamp Technology Roadmap LED Automotive Headlamp Cost Analysis Daytime Running Lights Cost Analysis Summary 9. MARKET FORECASTS LED Forecast by Application Forecast Demand for Silicone Encapsulant for LED Packages Retrofit Bulbs, tubes, PAR and Street Lighting Backlight Units Automotive Lighting Total Market for PCB Substrates for LED Assemblies Thermal Interface Materials 10 CONCLUSIONS & OPPORTUNITIES Conclusions Opportunities APPENDIX Zhaga Consortium Luminaire Manufacturers

5 iv LIST OF TABLES Table No PCB Substrates for LED Luminaire Market Opportunities for Thermal and Optical Materials Companies Interviewed for this Report Number of 1 Watt LEDs to Light a Room Comparison of White Light LED Technologies Number of LEDs per Backlight Unit Backlighting versus Edgelighting Ceramic Substrate Materials Leading Suppliers of Ceramic Substrates Die Attach Adhesives Encapsulant Material Comparison by Type Silicone Encapsulants Lens Material Comparison Light Output Equivalent for Retrofit PAR38 Comparative Performance Cost of Commercial Grade Tube Lighting 12 Hours per Day Conformal Coating Materials Preliminary Breakdown of Light Output Requirements Technology Roadmap the Luminaire IMS Substrates Thermal Interface Materials LED Suppliers Overview of the Lighting Industry HB LED Value Chain LED Light Manufacturer Capacity, Revenues and Output Thermal Interface Material Suppliers Technology Roadmap for Retrofit Light Bulb 100W Equivalent Technology Roadmap 60W LED Street Light Module Technology Roadmap 60W LED Street Light Module 40 Edge Type Backlight Unit Technology Roadmap LED Headlamp Module Technology Roadmap Opportunities 10-2

6 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure No The Lighting Evolution Haitz Law Idealized and Actual LED Light Emissions B50 and L70 Lifetimes for InGaN Luxeon K2 LED Market by Application 2012 and 2017, Number of LED Packages LED Light Bulbs and Tube Lamps Global Market Forecast Outdoor LED Lighting Market Forecast BLU Market Share, Total Market: $12 billion (est) Samsung LED Backlighting with Local Dimming LED Backlight Display Market Forecast Contrast Enhancement through Selective Dimming LED Local Dimming Block Diagram Mobile Phone Handset Shipments LED Daytime Running Light on Audi A4 Use of LED in and on Vehicles World Automotive Lighting Market 2011 $23.3 Billion Thermal Path through LED Package Seoul Semiconductor Z-Power LED Oslon Black, Leadframe Package Osram Opto Ceramic Package Oslon Series Osram Opto Oslon SSL80 Ceramic Package Constructions Seoul Semiconductor Bridgelux Micro SM4 Philips Lumiled Flip Chip Technology Viseratech Wafer Level Package Wafer Level LED Package with Molded Reflector Wafer Level Package Reflector Fabricated from Photoresist TSMC Wafer Level Package Nichia COB Technology LED Arrays from Cree and Bridgelux Cree X-Lamp MX6 and MX-G2 Everlight 6.4W COB Multichip Array Cree Dragon X Plus Module Osram Prevaled Core HD GE Infusion M45000 Module to Zhaga Book 5 Specification Seoul Semiconductor Archich 2 Modules HB-LED on Tong Hsing DPC Substrate Cross-Section of an ALOX Substrate Shin-Etsu Encapsulants

7 vi LIST OF FIGURES (cont) Figure No Philips 2W Envirolight LED Light Bulb Dimmable AC/DC Conversion Assembly Philips 7W LED Replacement for 40 Watt Incandescent Zeta Lifebulb 60W Equivalent Definity 60W Light Bulb 60 and 100W Retrofit Light Bulbs Philips Endura 60W-Equivalent LED Module Mounted on EMS Substrate Philips 11W Retrofit Bulb 60W-Equivalent Matrix Viribright 10W Retrofit Design Parabolic Lighting LED PAR38 from Nano Customs Star PCB Cree Multichip MT-G2 X-Lamp Acelite GU10 12W Dimmable PAR 30 Bulb PAR Teardown 70 Watt Mobile Base Minor Surgery Light 62W LED Outdoor Floodlight 400W Parabolic Sportlight Housing 108W LED Light Engine T8 Tube LED Replacement Detail of Alpine T8 LED Circuit Board T10 IMS Substrate HB LED Array with Optical Diffusers LED Street Lamps Osram and Eliontec Oslon Retrofit Luminaire Samsung Street Light Module 28 Watt Street Light Replacement Gemma Lighting Street Lamp Schreder Aresa Street Lamp Design Backlight Unit Construction LCD Edge Light Assembly Microlens Profiles LED Edge Strip from 47 TV Backlight Unit ipad Edge Strip BLU LED Illumination Strip 5630 PLCC for a Backlight Unit Brightness Enhancement Film BLU Current and Voltage Characteristics LED Driver IC MLBTV Substrate for LED Backlight Unit Samsung M3200 Display with Flex Interconnect and 4 LED Side Emitters HTC Smartphone Display with Flex Interconnect and 5 LED Side Emitters

8 vii LIST OF FIGURES (cont) Figure No DRL FPC for Volkswagen Beetle Jaguar XF Brake Light Configuration Flexible Circuit for Indicator Light Koito Headlamp LED Headlamp Unit for Cadillac Escalade Platinum SUB Polymer Thickness vs Transmission Terraglo Alba Wall Luminaire Thermal Path through Metal-Backed Substrate E27 MiB IMS2 Substrates Structure of IMS1 Structure of IMS2 Structure of IMS3 Device Power Dissipation, Watts HB LED Luminaire with Formed DWPCB Substrate Discrete Wiring MiB Type DWPCB 135W LED Retrofit for Metal Halide Lamp MiB Type MBB1 Structure of MLBTV Typical Thick Film Manufacturing Process Cambridge Nanotherm Nano-Ceramic LED Light Bar with Nanoceramic on Aluminium Heatsink Sinkpad Technology Velocity Vectors of the Synthetic Jet Flow as Air Is Expelled Integration of Nuventix Synjet in a Lamp Cooling Liquid Convection Flow in Switch LED Light Bulb Luminaire Assembly Path IP Property Map HB LED Value Chain SSL and Automotive Lighting Value Chain Backlight Unit Value Chain Single Die Ceramic LED Package Cost Analysis Multichip Ceramic LED Package Cost Analysis Single Die Plastic Moulded PLCC Cost Analysis Retrofit E W LED Light Bulb Cost Analysis (1) Retrofit E W LED Light Bulb Cost Analysis (2) Street Lamp Module Cost Analysis Street Lamp Module Cost Analysis 40 LED Back Light Module, Edge Type Cost Analysis LED Headlamp Cost Analysis Daytime Running Lights, $32.50 Unit Cost Analysis

9 viii LIST OF FIGURES (cont) Figure No Demand for HBLED by Application, Forecast Demand for Silicone Encapsulant, tonnes, LED Replacement/Substitution Market Dynamics Demand for SSL Retrofit Light Bulbs and Tubes, Demand for Street Lamps and Outdoor speciality Lamps, Demand for MCPCB for SSL Applications, , (000s sq m) Demand for MCPCB for SSL Applications, , (US$ m) Demand for Potting Encapsulant for Retrofit Bulbs, Backlight Unit Demand Forecast, Million units, Demand for PCB substrates for LED TV Backlight Units, (000s sq m) Demand for PCB substrates for LED TV Backlight Units, US$ million Demand for PCB Substrates for LED Light Strips for BLU split by BLU type (000s sq m) Demand for Optical Films for LCD TV Backlight Units, $m Demand for MCPCB and FPC for Automotive Lighting by Application (000s sq m) Demand for MCPCB and FPC for Automotive LED Lighting, (000s sq m) Demand for for MCPCB and FPC for Automotive LED Lighting, US$ million Total Global Market for PCB Substrates for LED by Technology (000s sq m Demand for Thermal Interface Materials, (000s sq m) Demand for Thermal Interface Materials, US$ million

OLED Lighting in Automotive Applications State of the Art and Future Demands. OLEDs World Summit 2017, San Francisco, Dr. Werner Thomas, AUDI AG

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