Where Are They Now? A Follow-up To Our Breaking News Story. August 2015
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1 Where Are They Now? A Follow-up To Our Breaking News Story August 2015
2 Where Are They Now? Two years ago we developed an analysis that revealed the older-skewing, overly-cluttered, hyper-competitive environment of local broadcast late news in 12 top markets and now we re back with an update to see what, if anything, has changed. In short, the way things were are the way things continue to be, with only slight alterations. Below are some topline findings: With virtually no change in unit counts, stations have essentially maxed out on late news unit loads over the last few years Average broadcast late news ratings continue to see double-digit declines The broadcast late news daypart is getting even older, with 85% now over the age of 45 Program format and time allocated to content vs. ads are nearly identical to two years ago Ad Time: January 30 th 2013 (10:02) vs. January 28 th 2015 (10:03) Ad Time: May 2 nd 2013 (9:41) vs. April 30 th 2015 (9:50) Ad time continues to be concentrated toward the back half of telecasts when program ratings fall off While there continues to be double-digit ratings declines in the last 10 minutes of late news when many ads run, the decrease isn t as dramatic as it was two years ago This is probably due to continued overall program ratings declines which is creating an audience base of only the most fervent late news viewer who are less likely to leave the telecast Monster Pods, which are extended pods that can feature 10+ ads, are still rampant within the broadcast late news format As we saw two years ago, this high ad clutter continues to create competitive separation issues and category advertising saturation within the daypart 12 markets: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, St. Louis 2
3 Local Broadcast Late News Units Have Been Essentially Maxed Out Over The Last Few Years 12-Market Total: Broadcast Local Prime vs. Late News Unit Shift 1 st Week of Feb & May 2013 vs Feb 13 vs. 15: Prime -1%, LN +1% May 13 vs. 15: Prime +4%, LN flat 12-Market Total: Local Broadcast Prime & Late News Units 1 st Week of Feb 15 1 st Week of May 15 Late Night 52% Prime 48% Late Night 51% Prime 49% Over 50% of Prime / LN local unit inventory is in Late News even though the daypart is a fraction of Primetime s length Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data; Units are equilivized. Market List: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, St. Louis. Dates: Feb 13 (1/28/13-2/3/13), Feb 15 (1/26/15-2/1/15); May 13 (4/29/13-5/5/13), May 15 (4/27/15-5/3/15) Local Broadcast Station Affiliates: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX 3
4 Average Late News Ratings Across The Twelve Markets Have Experienced Double-Digit Decreases Over the Last Two Years Average Broadcast Late News A25-54 Ratings Decline 12 Market Average 3-Net Average (ABC, CBS, NBC) Wed, January 28 th 2015 Vs. Wed, January 30 th 2013 Thurs, April 30 th 2015 Vs. Thurs, May 2 nd Market Average -21% -21% Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data; based on average individual commercial A25-54 rating for the time period. Market List: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, St. Louis. 4
5 Broadcast Late News Is Getting Even Older As A Vast Majority of Viewers Fall Outside Traditional Buying Demo % % Viewers % % % % 52% 85% are 45+.And A Disproportionate Amount of Those Late News Viewers Within the Demo Are % Viewers % % 20% % Source: Nielsen, Live, Big 4 Broadcast network affiliates, July 2015, late news daypart 5
6 Late News Content Is Focused Within The First Half Of The Telecast While Ad Time Is Concentrated Towards The Back Half 12-Market Average: 1 st Half vs. 2 nd Half Program Format Weds, January 28 th 2015 Thurs, April 30 th st Half 2 nd Half Total 1 st Half 2 nd Half Total Content Time 19:35 5:22 24:57 19:58 5:32 25:10 Ad Time 2:20 7:43 10:03 1:56 7:54 9:50 # of Ads Over 75% of ad time is in the 2 nd half Based on 3-network average ABC, CBS, NBC Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data Market List: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, St. Louis 6
7 This Makes For An Uneven Telecast Where Commercial Breaks Frequently Disrupt News Content Two Examples: Station Late News Telecast Format Phoenix KPHO (CBS) Weds, January 28 th 2015 (10p-10:35p) Cleveland WEWS (ABC) Thurs, April 30 th 2015 (11p-11:35p) Time Format Time Format 10:00-10:12 Program Content (12:36) 11:00-11:11 Program Content (11:54) 10:12-10:14 Ads (1:30) 11:11-11:14 Ads (2:30) 10:14-10:20 Program Content (6:37) 11:14-11:22 Program Content (8:14) 10:20-10:23 Ads (3:10) 11:22-11:25 Ads (3:05) 10:23-10:27 Program Content (3:49) 11:25-11:28 Program Content (3:14) 10:27-10:31 Ads (3:30) 11:28-11:31 Ads (2:15) 10:31-10:32 Program Content (1:48) 11:31-11:32 Program Content (0:33) 10:33-10:35 Ads (2:00) 11:32-11:35 Ads (3:15) Extended commercial breaks, aka Monster Pods, are also a common occurrence within the back half of telecasts as many commercial pods last for 3+ minutes Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data 7
8 Extended Commercial Breaks, aka Monster Pods, Can Carry 10+ Ads In A Single Pod Local Broadcast Late News will sometimes carry 10+ ads in a single pod Two examples: Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data 8 8
9 Heavy Commercial Time Means A Vast Majority of Late News GRPs Live Within The Second Half of Programming In more than half the markets, over 75% of the available GRPs are within the back half of late news % of GRPs Within 2 nd Half of Late News Telecasts 3-Net Total (ABC, CBS, NBC) 94% 75% 75% 67% 64% 76% 69% 81% 77% 83% 71% 73% 68% 70% 83% 68% 69% 77% 72% 80% 85% 77% 79% 81% Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Dallas Detroit Houston Los Angeles Miami New York Phoenix San Diego St. Louis Wednesday, January 28th 2015 Thursday, April 30th 2015 *2 nd half of telecast = exact time period will differ slightly across markets but generally falls between last minutes of telecast Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data. GRPs are equilivized 9 9
10 On Average, A25-54 Ratings Decreased By Double Digits In The Second Half Of Late News Telecasts 9 out of 12 markets showed double-digit ratings declines from the start of the late news telecast through the end Average Broadcast Late News A25-54 Ratings Decline Beginning of Telecast (:00-:15) vs. Last 10 Minutes (:25-:35) 3-Net Average (ABC, CBS, NBC) 34% 12-Market Avg Rtg decline: Jan 28 th : -20% Apr 30 th : -14% 17% 1% Atlanta Chicago Cleveland Dallas Detroit Houston Los Angeles -17%-16% -16% -24% -22% -27% -13% -18% -20% -23% -21% -23% Miami New York Phoenix San Diego St. Louis -9% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -27% -26% -32% Wednesday, January 28th 2015 Thursday, April 30th 2015 Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data. For Thursday, April 30 th Los Angeles excludes KCBS & KNBC and Phoenix excludes KPNX (NBC) since comparisons are not available for those stations
11 High Ad Clutter Leads To Competitive Separation Issues, Not To Mention Category Advertising Saturation Many telecasts don t have competitive separation for major local categories like autos & furniture Two examples: 11 different auto advertisers 10 different auto advertisers 50% of ads in these two sample markets were auto Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data 11
12 Cable s Late Night Advantage: Younger & Less Cluttered With Quality Content In Diverse Environments In Contrast To Late News Older Demos, Cable More Equitably Delivers All Segment of the Buying Demo Cable Has Much Less Commercial Time During The Last Half of The Late News Time Period (11:20p-11:35p) Ad-Supported Cable During Late News Daypart (M-F 11-11:30p) % % Viewers % % % Viewers % Wednesday, January 28 th M/S # of Ads 12-Market B cast Avg: 7:40 18 Cable Avg*: 4:13 10 Thursday, April 30 th M/S # of Ads 12-Market B cast Avg: 7:41 19 Cable Avg*: 4:07 10 Something for Everyone With Unparalleled Quality Content Across A Variety of Genres During Late News % % % % % Source: VAB Analysis of Nielsen Ad*Views data. *Cable average based on 97 networks measured by Ad*Views (includes local avail time); Local Broadcast Station Affiliates: ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX. Market List: Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Detroit, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, Phoenix, San Diego, St. Louis. Source: Nielsen, Live, July 2015 (M-F 11 11:30p); 12
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