Downstream Demand for Copper and Substitution in. International Copper Study Group Meeting Lisbon, Portugal, 26 April 2012

Transcription

1 Downstream Demand for Copper and Substitution in : 213 A Perspective from the Wire &C Cable Industry International Copper Study Group Meeting Lisbon, Portugal, Philip Radbourne Director, Wire & Cable Team, Integer Research Ltd Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China and Eastern Europe Substitution threats to copper Conclusions questions & answer session 1

2 Integer Research Ltd London office Founded in 22 We track range of industries, from cable, power systems, metals, mining, through chemicals and emissions We have 4 staff in London Team in Detroit, USA since 29. We opened up offices in Beijing and Tokyo in 211. More than 95% of our business comes from outside the UK Substitution threats discussion points Wide regional variations in usage of aluminium, copper. Historically, aluminium has been widely used where there has been either strong state control India, former Eastern communist (ex-china), or market development work (Reynolds, Alcoa, Alcan) in North America in the 196s and 197s, aluminium has been widely used The high water mark has been aluminium use in building wire in India, USA and former eastern Exceptions have been China and the Middle East, where aluminium could take major market share in utility ypower cable. Both regions reluctant to shift, due to inertia, despite the disparity in price of copper and aluminium. Now seeing Middle East cable companies installing aluminium stranding machines. In Europe, major trend to start using aluminium drawing and stranding machines in the automotive wire sector. Leading companies like Leoni already developing new generation of thin wall aluminium cables for High voltage electrical systems in Electric Vehicles for weight saving. 2

3 Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China Substitution threats Conclusions questions & answer session China cable sector has shown once in a generation increase, outstripping all other leading economies Gross cable weight, ' tonnes conductor North America Latin America and the Caribbean Europe Asia Africa Data: Integer Research Ltd, Chinese national statistics, IEEMA, Eurostar, US Bureau of Census 3

4 China cable sector has shown once in a generation increase, outstripping all other leading economies 8 7 Gross cable weight - volume of production, ' tonnes China Germany India USA Data: Integer Research Ltd, Chinese national statistics, IEEMA, Eurostar, US Bureau of Census Recent trends show that European demand for copper rod likely to suffer, as Spain, UK and Greece fall sharply in 212 Eurostat - European wire & cable production, year-on-year change through Q1 212 Germany 6.8% France 1.4% Italy -9.8% Spain -18.% Greece -57.4% Turkey 5.9% 3% 2% 1% % -1% -2% -3% Eurostat EU-27 cable production data shows market in recession in 212 index, % yr-o-yr change (25=1) EU % -4% Data: Integer Research Ltd, Eurostat 4

5 Weak Spanish cable production may mean consolidation of the cable makers, and the suppliers of copper rod and wire beyond 213 4% 3% Spanish wire & cable production, y-o-y change, % 2% 3 per. Mov. Avg. (Spanish wire & cable production, y-o-y change, %) 1% % -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% Data: Integer Research Ltd, Eurostat Integer tracks the leading 3 cable companies globally and where they make cable, and also sell it Cable revenues in US$ million in 211 Central Asia Western Europe West Africa Southern Africa South Asia South America Others Oceania North East Asia North America North Africa Middle East Greater China Eastern Europe Eastern Africa Central America ASEAN 2 Data: Integer Research Ltd, Company Accounts, Bloomberg, Factiva, MINT 5

6 We also track in detail what they make at each plant, and where they sell it, helping us with our investment projects Cable revenues in Enamelled Wire Telecom (Fibre Optic Cable) US$ million in Telecom (Copper Telecom Cable) 211 Signal & Control Electronic Wire Infrastructure - HV/EHV Power Cable Automotive Wire OEM Harness Assemblies Infrastructure - LV Power Cable LAN Data Cable, UTP/STP Infrastructure - MV Power Cable Infrastructure - Submarine Power Cable - MV Infrastructure - Submarine Power Cable - HV/EHV Cord Sets Building (residential and commercial) St rip/ctc Automotive Wiring Harness Assemblies OEM/Industry Specialty Power Cable Data: Integer Research Ltd, Company Accounts, Bloomberg, Industry Sources Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China and Eastern Europe Substitution threats Conclusions questions & answer session 6

7 India has a well defined formal sector, but a number of Indian companies operate Chinese upward casters that make defining the market difficult Copper Wirerod Production India ' tonnes Sterlite Industries Finolex Cables Hindalco Industries Hindustan Copper Metdist Industries Alchemist Metals (TDT) Master Alloys Hot Rolling Upward casting Total Balance Item/ Stock Wirerod Imports Wirerod Exports Wirerod Consumption Cathode production non wirerod usage Fire refined production non wirerod usage Cathode Imports Cathode Exports Scrap infeed Wirerod Production Data: Integer Research Ltd, Company Accounts, Bloomberg, Industry Sources We then compare the top down numbers, with what we see in real consumption Country Year India 29 Copper Wirerod (' ( tonnes) Wirerod Diameter Total 8mm >8mm Wirerod Production Wirerod Scrap in wirerod production Inventory decrease / (increase)... Wirerod Sales (internal or external) Wirerod Imports Wirerod Exports Wirerod Consumption Inventory decrease / (increase)... - Scrap (in wire & strip production) Bare Wire & Strip Production Bare Round Wire Bare Strip / Shapes Data: Integer Research Ltd, Company Accounts, Bloomberg, Industry Sources 7

8 Which helps our clients work out if there really is a capacity gap, to justify an investment Wire & Cable (' tonnes) Total Copper Single Wire Bunched or Stranded Conductors Total Inhouse Bought single of cons bought of bunch / strand Wire Consumption - Insulated Wire & Cable % 5% Wire Consumption - Bare Strand % 1% Wire Consumption - Winding Wire % Scrap in stranding & insulating Inventory decrease / (increase)..... Copper Content of Wire & Cable Production Scrap in stranding & insulating 2.5% 5.% % of production Copper Strip & Shapes (' tonnes) Total Copper Winding Strip Earthing St rip Small Busbar Other St rip & Shapes CTC Total Single CTC % of Winding St rip % of total Strip & Shapes 79.% 9.% 3.% 9.% Bare Strip / Shapes Production % + Bare Strip / Shapes Imports % - Bare Strip / Shapes Exports % Scrap in processing Inventory decrease / (increase) Copper Content of Strip / Shapes Consumption Data: Integer Research Ltd, Company Accounts, Bloomberg, Industry Sources Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China Substitution threats Conclusions questions & answer session 8

9 What has driven copper rod demand in China from the cable sector? We will look at the Consumer Electronics sector as an example We can look at Japanese set maker investment in China part of globalisation Number of Plants India Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Singapore Thailand Vietnam Taiwan Hong Kong China South Korea 4 2 Data: Integer, in part taken in part from paper by Toomo Marukawa Investments in East Asia 9

10 Japanese Set Maker investment by company in Asia which drives electronic wire demand 18 Number of Plants NEC Sharp Sony Sanyo Toshiba Hitachi Fujit su Matsushita Mitsubishi Electric 2 Data: Integer, in part taken in part from paper by Toomo Marukawa Investments in East Asia Set maker investment by province in China, Number of Plants in China 5 Shaanxi Guanxi 45 Guangdong Hunan 4 Hubei 35 Henan Shangdong 3 Jiangxi Fujian 25 Anhui Zheijiang 2 Jiangsu Shanghai 15 Liaoning Hebei 1 Tianjin Beijing 5 Data: Integer, in part taken in part from paper by Toomo Marukawa Investments in East Asia 1

11 Japan and Taiwanese cable makers have dominated inward investment in China 12 Number of cable plant 1 8 Number of cablemakers plants by owner country of origin Data: Integer, in part taken in part from paper by Toomo Marukawa Investments in East Asia Structure of the Electronic wire market in China Value added Electronic Wire Market may consume copper wire from Japan. Increased value, technology, complexity & customer service, also means segmented copper rod & wire purchases in the supply chain Data: Integer, Industry Sources Wide range of UL listed producers, more than 9 Major players include SEI, Tyco, Belden, LS, Furukawa, Daiden, Hitachi & Fujikura 4 Chinese companies producing simple PVC UL17 style cable. 6 Chinese companies producing simple PVC UL17 style cable, to CCC standards? They may use low grade wire Potential barrier from Halogen Free Cables Ricoh/Canon/Samsung/ Apple Potential barrier from RoHS 11

12 Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China Substitution threats Conclusions questions & answer session Substitution threats discussion points Wide regional variations in usage of aluminium, copper. Historically, aluminium has been widely used where there has been either strong state control India, former Eastern communist (ex-china), or market development work (Reynolds, Alcoa, Alcan) in North America in the 196s and 197s, aluminium has been widely used The high water mark has been aluminium use in building wire in India, USA and former eastern Exceptions have been China and the Middle East, where aluminium could take major market share in utility ypower cable. Both regions reluctant to shift, due to inertia, despite the disparity in price of copper and aluminium. Now seeing Middle East cable companies installing aluminium stranding machines. In Europe, major trend to start using aluminium drawing and stranding machines in the automotive wire sector. Leading companies like Leoni already developing new generation of thin wall aluminium cables for High voltage electrical systems in Electric Vehicles for weight saving. 12

13 Renewables driving demand for a range of transformers and switchgear potentially some of this will be aluminium Key Comments A range of shaped products are used in transformers. There are a limited number of producers of flat strip globally, which is then consumed by transformer producers worldwide. There are a limited number of producers of high voltage, power transformers, although there has been a large increase in production in China in the last decade. Renewables will drive utility fixed investment in a range of products, such as switchgear, transformers, power cable, aluminium overhead conductors, and range of low cost HVDC power interconnect cables. Data: Integer, ASTA/Metrod Presentation Structure Introduction Global Wire & Cable industry How this links to refined copper demand a review of India Globalisation and manufacturing clusters review of China and Eastern Europe Substitution threats Conclusions questions & answer session 13

14 For further information please contact: Kristian Wyatt Senior Business Development Manager Philip Radbourne Director Research Tel: Fax: Integer Research Ltd 4 Featherstone Street London, EC1Y 8RE, UK 27 14