Adoption of New Media in the Digital Era. Fordham University New York City, USA

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1 Adoption of New Media in the Digital Era John Carey Fordham University New York City, USA

2 Rogers Categorization of Adopters Innovators Early Adopters Early Majority Late Majority Laggards Source: Rogers

3 Adoption Groups Early Adopters 12% Adopt new technology as soon as available; willing to pay more for it Mainstream Adopters 35 Wait till sure technology works and price has come down somewhat Later Adopters 32 Wait till technology becomes mainstream and price drops more Stragglers 21 Reluctant to adopt new technology; may get it if feel it is a necessity Source: IBM multi-nation survey

4 Adoptions Due to External and Internal Influences

5 Average Price of Selected Electronic Products (Current Dollars) Year Radio Set B&W TV Color TV VCR CD Player 1925 $ $ $ $ 1, , $ Source: EIA; Sterling and Haight: US Dept. of Commerce

6 Average Price Of Fax Machines Dollars 5000 $4, $ Sources: Dataquest; US Dept of Commerce; CEA

7 Services Where The Price Dropped or Did Not Drop Over Time Price Dropped Over Time Long Distance Telephone Dial-Up Online Broadband DSL Mobile Phone Service Price Did Not Drop Over Time Cable TV Satellite TV Satellite Radio Video-on-Demand

8 S-Curve Pattern of Adoption Time

9 Number of US Households Subscribing To An Online/Internet Service Provider, Millions of Households Source: Veronic & Suhler; Jupiter Communication, Decision Analysts

10 Cable Growth, Percent of TV Households Subscribing to Cable Year Sources: Sterling and Haight; US Dept of Commerce;

11 Cable Growth, Percent of Households Subscribing to Cable 46% 64% 67% 59% 59% 56% 54%53% 52% 23%.01%.20% 1% 2% 8% 13% Sources: CAB & AC Nielsen

12 US Videogame Console Sales, 1980 to Billions of Dollars Source: NPD Group

13 Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest Newspapers 100+ Telephone 70 Phonograph 55 Electricity 43 Cable Television 39 FM Radio 30 Color Television 17 Personal Computer 17 Cell Phone 16 Compact Disk Player 15 VCR 10 AM Radio 9 Black & White Television 8 DVD 6

14 All my gadgets are old. I'd like some new gadgets

15 Two-Income Households: Percentage Of Married Couples With Both Spouses Working 90% of households earning over $100K consists of a married couple or a person living with a partner 39% 47% 52% 62% 60% 22% 29% Source: U.S. Department of Labor

16 K-12 Technology Spending Administrative Software $14.23 Instructional Software $17.42 Hardware $53.72 IT Services & Support $22.42 Professional Development & Training $12.82 Wireless Networking Source: QED $4.88 Internet and Networking $19.88

17 Replacement Cycles For Electronic Products Product Average Life Cycle Cordless Telephone 10 years TV Set 8 Camcorder 7 DVD Player 7 Digital Camera 3 Personal Computer 3 Mobile Phone 2 Source: Appliance

18 Product Mortality Of the 30,000 new consumer products launched each year, over 90% of them fail. The Wall Street Journal

19 Radio Fax Newspaper 1938

22 Fads Hula Hoop

23 Yo-Yos

24 Chia Pet

25 Boom Box

26 Advantages and Pitfalls of Being First

27 First In Strategy... AM Radio HBO Pay Cable Service Broadcast Networks

28 But HDTV in Japan Early Videoconferencing Early DBS Online media (videotex)

29 Digital Era Context

30 Rapid Pace of Change

31 Worldwide Growth of Telephone Service, In Millions 7000 Cellular Subscribers Wired Telephone Lines Source: ITU

32 Percent of US Households with a Cell Phone and No Landline Source: Cellular Telecomm Assoc. 45% have both 6% only landline 2% No phone at all

36 Number of Text Messages Sent/Received per Month 3,705 Average by Age Americans send 69,000 texts per second The average subscriber sends 456 texts per month Source: Nielsen

39 Twitter

41 The Internet of Things Samsung Hub Refrigerator

43 Accessing Media in Public Locations

47 Wi-Fi Transmitter

48 Sleep Average Hours of Sleep 8,8 7,7 6,9 6,7 Source: NIH

49 Multi Tasking Extends the Media Day Avg. Media Day 12 hrs 2 min TV, VCR & Video Games Other 24 Hour day Print 9 Hours Cell Phone Music 9 TV Telephone Computer Radio Web Use* Source: Ball State Middletown Media Studies

50 What Company and Device Have Defied Historical Patterns of Price Declines?

51 Average Retail Cost of iphone Source: Apple

52 External/Internal Influences on Adoption Has social media changed this? pm Adoption due to Interpersonal Communication Adoption due to Mass Media Time

53 All my gadgets are old. I'd like some new gadgets

55 Mobile Phone Adoption and Gender Percent of All US Cell Phone Subs Female Male Source: Castells; WSJ Some attribute early use by males to occupations that used it Females who adopted cell phones in the 90s were more likely to say they got it for security

56 Fads Angry Birds

58 Ring Tone/Ring Back Sales (in Millions) $500 $600 $550 $405 $240 $305 $221 $70 $116 $104 $98 $85 55 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 15 Source: BMI, RIAA

59 Failures? Smell-O-Phones?

60 Decline as well as increase

61 What s Declining? Technology Desktop PCs Over-the-air Broadcasting Telephone Land Lines Dedicated Digital Cameras DVD Players Dedicated Portable Game Players E-Readers Non-HD TVs Non-Smart Cell Phones Print Newspapers Service Snail Mail Buying CDs and DVDs Traditional Phone Calls Watching Network TV News DVD Rentals Reading Print Newspapers Reading Print Classified Ads AOL- IM Use of Browsers on Phones Print Catalogues & Directories

62 Global Shipments of E-Readers Millions of Units Source: IHS & WSJ E-readers are being replaced by tablets and smartphones

63 Time to Succeed

64 Number of Years to Reach 50% Penetration of U.S. Households Sources: Electronic Industry Association; US Dept. of Commerce; Dataquest Newspapers 100+ Telephone 70 Phonograph 55 Electricity 43 Cable Television 39 FM Radio 30 Color Television 17 Personal Computer 17 Cell Phone 16 Compact Disk Player 15 VCR 10 AM Radio 9 Black & White Television 8 DVD 6

66 Advantages and Pitfalls of Being First

69 Failure Followed By Success

70 1950s

71 1960s Picturephone

72 Skype

75 Mobility: Percentage of U.S. Households That Move Each Year Source: U.S. Department of Labor

76 Privacy Concerns: Percentage of People Who Say They Are Concerned About Privacy 77% 79% 84% 84% 88% 89% 78% 64% 34% 47% Source: Louis Harris Assoc../SNET/Equifax

78 Change Model Information Knowledge Attitudes Behavior

79 Killers Apps versus Confluence

80 Technology Push versus User Demand

81 Trojan Horse Model of Change

82 Other Patterns.. Failures Fads Cyclical Technologies Replacement Piggybacking False Starts

85 The International Scene Much is happening outside the U.S.

86 Advanced Technology Ranking 1 Singapore 2 Iceland 3 Finland 4 Denmark 5 United States 6 Sweden 7 Hong Kong 8 Japan 9 Switzerland 10 Canada Source: World Economic Forum

87 Economist Ranking of E-Friendly Countries Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit Rank Denmark 1 United States 2 Sweden 3 Switzerland 4 Britain 5 Hong Kong 6 Australia 10 France 19 Italy 24 Russia 52 Indonesia 60

88 Top 10 Film Producing Nations ,000 1,200 India U.S. Japan France Spain Italy Germany China Phillipines Hong Kong Source: Screen Digest

89 Countries With Fastest Broadband 1. South Korea 2. Japan 3. Hong Kong 4. Latvia 5. Switzerland 6. The Netherlands 7. Czech Republic 8. USA 9. Sweden 10.Finland Source: Forbes

90 Enhancements vs New Services

91 Changes in Household Use of Media

93 Complexity

97 Video Game Console Ownership by Age % % % % Source: MultiChannel News

98 Information Overload?

99 Content returns as king

100 Paid Subscriptions to Streaming Music Services Millions of Paid Subscriptions 7,7 8,1 6,2 3,4 1, * Source: RIA *Q-2

101 Share of Radio Audience % of Audience AM Radio FM Radio Source: Statistical Research

102 Price of Selected Electronic Products In Terms of Weekly Household Income Number Of Weeks Income To Pay For Product Year Radio Set B&W TV Color TV VCR CD Player * * * * * Year Technology Entered Half of US Households Source: US Department of Commerce

103 S Curve Pattern of Adoption A Time B

THE CROSSPLATFORM REPORT

THE CROSSPLATFORM REPORT STTE OF THE MEDI THE CROSSPLTFORM REPORT QURTER, 0 UNDERSTNDING THE VIDEO CONSUMER The average merican today has more ways to watch video whenever, however and wherever they choose. While certain segments