5 Project Costs and Schedule

Transcription

1 93 5 Project Costs and Schedule 5.1 Overview The cost evaluation for the integrated version of the XFEL with 30 experiments and 35 GeV beam energy as described in the TDR-2001 yielded 673 million EUR for the complete project including manpower. In accord with the Stellungnahme by the German Science Council, the layout of the facility with separate linac presented in this report has been worked out such as to stay within this original cost frame. In order to achieve this goal in the case that the XFEL part of TESLA would be started earlier than the linear collider, thus loosing the cost benefit of large scale production, the energy of the linear accelerator has been reduced to 20 GeV at the nominal gradient of 23.5 MV/m, the number of FEL beamlines has been reduced from 5 to 3, the number of beamlines for short pulse spontaneous radiation from 5 to 2, and the number of experimental stations from 30 to 10. The goal was almost met with the estimated cost of 684 million EUR for the capital investment and manpower. However, additional funds of 25 million EUR are required for R&D (7 million EUR), spare components (12 million EUR) and pre-operation (6 million EUR). It should be mentioned that in case of a parallel construction of the XFEL and the linear collider with the benefit of large scale industrial production, the total cost for capital investment and personnel would be reduced by 145 million EUR. The technical specification of the facility includes a safety margin (e.g. rf power, cryogenic plant capacity, etc.), which is necessary to guarantee the envisaged performance and also contributes to the reliability of the cost figure above. However, to cover uncertainties in the cost estimates, unforeseen events and delays, which can not be completely ruled out, we estimate that a risk budget of 10% of the total cost quoted above would have to be foreseen for equipment and personnel (see below). The investment costs given include all components necessary for the construction of the decoupled linear accelerator for the XFEL and the XFEL laboratory. All numbers are quoted at year 2000 prices. The manpower required for the various stages of the project (i.e. preparation, procurement, testing, assembly and commissioning) is included in the total cost assuming 50 thousand EUR per person per year on average.

2 94 5 Project Costs and Schedule the costs for the linear accelerator part of the decoupled XFEL amount to 446 million EUR including 110 million EUR for personnel; the costs for the XFEL laboratory itself with experimental stations and beamlines are 238 million EUR including 30 million for personnel. The total cost is divided up into the major items as shown in Tables and (see also Fig ). To assure full competition in future bidding procedures, no further cost breakdown is given in this public report. In the following section we will describe the various procedures used for the cost evaluation of the major components. Distribution of 684 million EUR project cost 14% Accelerator modules 7% 3% 6% 5% 14% 7% 3% 7% RF system 3% Injector 6% Electron beam lines 20% Civil engineering 9% Infrastructure 20% 6% 20% Personnel 6% Undulators 9% 20% 3% Photon beam lines 7% Experiments 5% XFEL Laboratory Figure 5.1.1: Overview of the project cost distribution. 5.2 Cost Estimate Basis for the Linear Accelerator For the Technical Design Report of the TESLA project published in March 2001 the cost estimates for all major components were obtained from studies made by industry and are based on the large number of components needed for the LC. For the XFEL laboratory decoupled from the linear collider as described in this report these estimates are not valid any more, if the XFEL facility is constructed before or independent from the linear collider.

3 5.2 Cost Estimate Basis for the Linear Accelerator 95 Sub-system cost [M-EUR] components included Linear accelerator modules (78) cryostats, 936 cavities, input couplers, HOM couplers, tuning systems, quadrupoles, steering magnets and instrumentation for 78 modules RF system (26) 47 RF power supplies, modulators, HV pulse cables, transformers, klystrons, waveguide system, low level RF controls, interlocks, cables Injector 23 RF gun system, special accelerator modules and RF systems, beam transfer lines, bunch compressors, diagnostics Electron beam lines 38 beam transport lines, magnets, beam collimation, beam extraction and dump systems, vacuum systems, power supplies, feedback systems, diagnostics Civil engineering km tunnel for linear accelerator, surface buildings for cryogenics and RF components, connecting shafts, beam dump halls, civil construction for injector Infrastructure 59 tunnel infrastructure, cable trays, power distribution, main power connection, cryoplant and cryogenic distribution system, water and ventilation systems, safety systems, module and RF test facility, control systems, vacuum pump stations, cabling, interlocks, magnet supplies, miscellaneous Sum of investments accelerator 336 Personnel cost 110 Personnel for the accelerator part Costs for preoperation and spares 14 Electrical power and materials; spares accelerator modules and RF components Table 5.1.1: Cost overview for the major items of the linear accelerator. All numbers are given in million EUR at year 2000 prices. In this case the price reduction due to the production of large numbers cannot be obtained. For the completion of the present report new in-depth evaluations by industry could not be performed. However, industrial prices for small quantities are available from the TESLA Test Facility for all components needed for the accelerator. Using these prices directly for the components

4 96 5 Project Costs and Schedule Sub-system cost [M-EUR] components included Undulators undulator segments including magnetic and mechanical structures, and motion control; 119 intersection elements including magnets, phase shifter, beam-position-monitor and power supplies; vacuum system Photon Beamlines 20 5 beamlines including each a vacuum system, photon shutter and collimator, beamposition monitor, double-crystal monochromator, double-bounce mirror unit, optical enclosures Experiments experiments including all apparatus and preparatory laboratories XFEL Laboratory 34 infrastructure for the XFEL laboratory, special laboratories, site costs Ellerhoop and Borstel- Hohenraden Civil engineering 68 experimental hall and tunnels for photon and undulator installation, access shaft buildings and corresponding surface buildings, office building, central facility buildings Ellerhoop Sum of investments XFEL laboratory 208 Personnel cost 30 Personnel for the XFEL laboratory Costs for spares and R&D 11 Spare undulator segments; R&D for optical components and detectors Table 5.1.2: Cost overview for the major items of the XFEL laboratory. All numbers are given in million EUR at year 2000 prices. of the XFEL facility would lead to an overestimate of the cost in most cases. Therefore industrial scaling laws have been applied, where it seemed appropriate, to obtain a probable price for each component. The numbers from the TDR-2001 have been used to check the validity of the scaling. As scaling procedures only apply for large numbers and only give a trend of the cost evolution, an uncertainty of the cost for each component has been estimated, yielding part of the specific risk budget mentioned above.

5 5.2 Cost Estimate Basis for the Linear Accelerator Linear accelerator modules The cryomodules for the linear accelerator with the superconducting cavities are the largest cost item with 99 million EUR. The cost is dominated by the s.c. cavities, the cryostat and the assembly of the module. Niobium, cavity fabrication and treatment procedures each constitute a substantial part of the cavity costs. Superconducting cavities The cost of cavity fabrication for the TDR-2001 was estimated using industrial studies made by companies with expertise in niobium production, cavity fabrication, and the planning of mass production plants. For this report there are no studies of equivalent depth available. However, there is a quotation for the mechanical fabrication of 2000 cavities against which our scaling has been cross-checked. An industrial estimate of the cavity preparation and module assembly for 1000 cavities is available. Niobium production The amount of material needed for the cavities for the XFEL linear accelerator is about 20 tons of high purity (RRR 300) niobium. For the TDR-2001 there exist price quotations for 500 tons. The price for the TDR was in part based on savings on sheet cuts for re-melting and streamlining of facilities for continuous production. These savings will most probably not be applicable for 20 tons. This has been accounted for in the cost and its uncertainty used for this report. There is an additional uncertainty in the price of niobium as prices are quoted in US-$: the price used in the cost estimate is based on 1 US-$/EUR. Cavity fabrication For the TDR-2001 the TTF cavity production was analyzed in terms of cost driving and critical procedures in an industrial study (Babcock Noell Nuclear GmbH, Würzburg, Germany). In the fabrication of TTF cavities, electron beam welding has been identified as the dominant cost driving procedure. A new fabrication facility was planned with three vacuum chamber welding installations for the fabrication of cavities. The facility, together with the use of multiple welding tooling, substantially reduced the welding costs. The total facility costs were determined in detail (planning, investment, effort for ramping up and closing the facility, personnel, repair and maintenance, consumption, quality insurance) and were compiled in a report. The same study was also done for the fabrication of 2000 cavities only. It should be mentioned, that the use of special tooling and at least one three chamber welding machine will also be necessary for the production of the 936 cavities for the XFEL linear accelerator to allow for the production of the linac modules within two years. The price quotation for 2000 cavities and the price for the present small number production for TTF has been used to estimate the price for this report.

6 98 5 Project Costs and Schedule Cryomodules For the TDR-2001 two industrial studies were made for the mass production: the costs for the vacuum vessel and cold mass were taken from an industrial study by E. Zanon SpA, Schio, Italy; the costs for the cavity preparation and cryomodule assembly were derived from an industrial study by Babcock Noell Nuclear GmbH. The price for the cryostat from these studies and the present price for the small number production have been used to estimate the price for 78 cryostats. For the cost of cavity preparation and module assembly a study is being performed by Babcock Noell Nuclear GmbH. First results from this study have been used for the cost estimate in this report. Costs for other components were derived from the experience gained from the procurement of similar components for TTF using industrial scaling laws Main linac RF system The RF system is also a large cost item for the linear accelerator. The most relevant parts with respect to cost are: klystrons; modulators and pulse transformers; wave guide distribution system; interlock and controls; low level RF system; HV cables. Klystron The cost estimate assumes the production of the total number of 30 klystrons by one manufacturer. For the TDR-2001 a mass production study was made by the prototype manufacturer (Thomson Tubes Electroniques, Velizy, France). In this study special production facilities were set up, to allow for the projected number of about 80 klystrons per year. This investment will presumably not pay and will not be necessary for 30 klystrons only. Therefore prices for klystrons and for the auxiliary systems are based on present TTF costs with some cost reduction assumed. Modulator and pulse transformer The cost estimate is based on the production of the total number of 30 modulators (HV power supply, pulser, internal modulator interlock) and pulse transformers by one manufacturer. Again the actual numbers from TTF assuming some savings for the larger number have been used. Low level RF system, waveguide distribution system and cables The cost for the low level RF system is based on TTF experience assuming some cost reduction for the larger number. The cost estimate for the wave guide system is based on experience with the existing TTF system, adjusted for the production of a larger number. Different parts of the system will be supplied from different manufacturers. For the cable cost the actual price of such a cable has been taken.

7 5.2 Cost Estimate Basis for the Linear Accelerator Injection systems The costs for the injector have been taken from the TDR Electron beam lines and beam dump system The cost estimate for the magnets, powersupplies, cables, the vacuum system and the diagnostics is based on the original TDR-2001 numbers as many components are similar in layout. The difference in number has been compensated by an increased price per unit. The beam dump system has been modified with respect to the TDR-2001, where a water dump capable of handling 2 MW beams had been used, a system similar to the beam dumps for the linear collider. To save cost for this first stage of the project the average beam power of the facility has been reduced to 300 kw allowing the use of a simpler solid beam dump, where cost numbers are available from TTF. Costs for the kicker magnet and pulser system have been evaluated from the experience with the HERA beam dump system Civil engineering Civil engineering is a major cost item amounting to 70 million EUR. It includes all tunnels, shafts, underground and surface buildings for the linear accelerator and the beam distribution. The construction cost estimate for the linear accelerator tunnel, shafts, underground and surface buildings is taken from an actual cost estimate by an engineering team, which prepared the detailed layout of the facility for the plan approval procedure (Planfeststellungsverfahren). A certain percentage of the total construction cost has been taken into account for the services of architects and civil engineers according to HERA experience and public regulations Infrastructure The infrastructure costs amount to 59 million EUR. The major cost items are the cryogenic plants, distribution lines, and connection boxes. Additional items included are: the main power connection and distribution; water cooling and ventilation systems; safety installations; control systems and interlocks; test equipment for cryomodules and RF components. The cost evaluation of most components has been performed in an identical way as for the original TDR Some cost numbers for the infrastructure have been obtained by dividing the costs of the TDR-2001 by the number of service halls or tunnel length. Compared to the TDR-2001 the size of the test facility equipment has been reduced by a factor of three, adjusting to the reduced number of components to be tested. This will allow to test all components for the accelerator within one year and a half. The cost of the equipment has been taken as one third of the TDR-2001 cost. The cost for the accelerator control system and the linac external vacuum systems have been evaluated on the basis of HERA and TTF experience. Contrary to the TDR-2001 spare

8 100 5 Project Costs and Schedule linac modules are not included into this item but are quoted separately. 5.3 Investment Costs for the XFEL Laboratory The cost estimate for the XFEL laboratory is based on the TDR-2001 and has been scaled to the design presented in this report. This includes the infrastructure cost which in the TDR was subsummised in the infrastructure cost of the accelerator. The total investment costs for the XFEL laboratory, including civil engineering, the cost for the site in Ellerhoop and infrastructure is given in Table As in the cost estimation in the TDR-2001 a specific risk budget covers the uncertainties of the industrial price estimates for the undulators and additional cost for the X-ray optics due to extremely demanding specifications required for the XFEL radiation Undulator segments For the realization of undulator segments an industrial study has been done in 2000 by Vacuumschmelze, Hanau, Germany. The study assumes a production line delivering 6 undulator segments per month. It is assumed that the same production plant is used for production of about 40% of this original estimate. This assumption is well justified since the estimated total production time is two years. For each undulator segment a vacuum system with chamber and pumping, and an intersection element is needed including phase shifters, magnets, quadrupoles, beam-positionmonitors, as well as the required power supplies and front-end electronics. The required amount of components already leads to savings compared to small series quotations Photon beamlines and diagnostics The photon beamlines cover the entire handling of the X-ray beams and its guidance to the experimental hall. This includes a large vacuum system for the long drift distances, beam collimation and photon shutter. For this large system a cost reduction compared to small series is included. The photon beamlines further include the photon diagnostics station, monochromators and mirrors. Price estimates take current quotations for small series into account. The total number of devices is still small and additional requirements to the devices are expected to prohibit any further reduction. Cost for optical and experimental enclosures are based on recent quotations (e.g. for the ESRF, Grenoble, France) Experiments The cost estimate for experiments is based on detailed listings of components for a variety of different experiments as outlined in the TDR The costs are proportional to the number of experiments and have been scaled accordingly. In addition to the costs for experiments, the preparatory laboratories required for the experiments and the needs for laser and detector installations on site were considered.

9 5.4 Manpower Requirements XFEL laboratory The cost for the XFEL laboratory includes all infrastructure for the XFEL laboratory, special laboratories for installation and performance test of components, and the cost for the land at the sites in Ellerhoop and Borstel-Hohenraden. Cost estimates are based on current costs for equivalent components and laboratories installed at DESY. The costs for the land were estimated using present market prices XFEL civil engineering Civil engineering is a relatively large cost item that includes most of the switchyard building at Ellerhoop including the costs for the shaft and access buildings, and 50% of the cost for the tunnels. Furthermore, the experimental hall and other buildings for the user operation on the Ellerhoop site are included here. The construction cost estimate for the underground and surface buildings directly related to the XFEL radiation is taken from an actual cost estimate by an engineering team, which prepared the detailed layout of the facility for the plan approval procedure (Planfeststellungsverfahren). Cost estimates for other buildings are based on experience at DESY during recent years. 5.4 Manpower Requirements The manpower required for the different stages of the project (design, procurement, fabrication and assembly, testing, installation and commissioning) has been estimated mainly on the basis of the experiences gained at TTF, in large projects like HERA or the ESRF and from the considerations made for TDR A total of 2200 person years for the accelerator and 600 person years for the XFEL laboratory will be required. The equivalent costs of 140 Mio Euro are included in the total cost estimate. 5.5 Time Schedule The construction time of the XFEL is 6 years, counting from the start of civil construction to the beginning of commissioning the linear accelerator. The evaluation of the schedule has been done under similar assumptions as for the TDR Figure shows the construction schedule, indicating the major activities. 5.6 Pre-operating Costs and Spares For the commissioning phase electrical power and material consumption have been taken into account with 6 million EUR. For critical components (such as accelerator modules) a number of spares will be produced; these costs amount to 12 million EUR. Since pre-operation and the production of spares will be required in the construction phase of the project they are indicated as a separate item.

10 102 5 Project Costs and Schedule 5.7 Operating Costs A very preliminary estimate for the operating costs has been made. The total cost for operation has been estimated at 50 million EUR per year. This includes the electrical power consumption, the regular replacement or refurbishing of klystrons, the maintenance and refurbishing of optical components and detectors, and the helium losses. The numbers are determined assuming current prices and an annual operation time of 5,000 h. Costs for general maintenance and repair have been estimated assuming 2 % per year of the original total investment costs corresponding to the DESY experience. A total staff of 450 is included, distributed between accelerator and XFEL laboratory m 1200 m Source Super conductive LINAC Switch yard XrayLaboratory Task X-FELProject Civil construction Year Equipment fabrication Assembly & Tests Machine installation Commissioning Commissioning with beam Figure 5.7.1: Time schedule.