Analyzing the Classical Music Audience Separating the Aging/Life Course Effect from the Cohort Effect

Transcription

1 Thomas K. Hamann Copyright 2005 Analyzing the Classical Music Audience Separating the Aging/Life Course Effect from the Cohort Effect 29 th Annual Conference of the German Classification Society (GfKl 2005) Magdeburg, March, 11 th 2005 This material was used by the authors during an oral presentation; it is not a complete record of the discussion. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, or reproduced without prior written approval from the authors.

2 AGENDA Introduction Typical issues at proving aging/life course or cohort effects Analyzing short time series of cross-sectional data in order to prove aging/life course or cohort effects Conclusions

3 THE LUCERNE FESTIVAL AUDIENCE AND THE POPULATION AS A WHOLE IN SWITZERLAND BY AGE GROUPS 2003 Percentage distribution Population as a whole* Lucerne Festival audience * Permanent residents on December 12, 2002 ** 100% = 302 respondents Source: Own representation based on the survey of the Lucerne Festival audience and based on data published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office

4 SOCIOLOGY OF THE LIFE COURSE SCHEMATIC Persons with a certain characteristic Birth Childhood Adolescence Adulthood Old age Death Aging/ life course effect Cohort effect Source: Own representation

5 CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS* IN GERMANY POSSIBLE FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF AGE STRUCTURE AND SIZE Million persons 2020 pure age/life course effect Σ = status quo Σ = ? pure cohort effect Σ = * Frequent and occasional classical music listeners Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach ( ) and by the Federal Statistical Office Germany (2003)

6 AGENDA Introduction Typical issues at proving aging/life course or cohort effects Analyzing short time series of cross-sectional data in order to prove aging/life course or cohort effects Conclusions

7 PROPORTIONS OF CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS* IN THE POPULATION IN GERMANY BY AGE GROUPS 2002 Percent % 66.6 % * Frequent and occasional classical music listeners Source: Own representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (2002, pp. 1, 59)

8 PROPORTIONS OF CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS* IN THE POPULATION IN GERMANY BY COHORTS 2002 Percent % 66.6 % Pre * Frequent and occasional classical music listeners Source: Own representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (2002, pp. 1, 59)

9 PROPORTIONS OF POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN THE POPULATION IN GERMANY BY AGE GROUPS 2002 Frequent pop listeners Occasional pop listeners % 95.0 % Source: Own representation based on the data published by the IfD Allensbach (2002)

10 PROPORTIONS OF POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN THE POPULATION IN GERMANY BY COHORTS 2002 Frequent pop listeners Occasional pop listeners % 95.0 % Pre Source: Own representation based on the data published by the IfD Allensbach (2002)

11 U.S. ATTENDANCE AT CLASSICAL MUSIC CONCERTS BY AGE GROUPS DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME Million persons Not comparable* cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort * The proceeding or succeeding age group is not of the same breadth Source: Own representation based on the data published by Cherbo/Peters (1995) and by Nichols (2003)

12 PROVING AGING/LIFE COURSE EFFECTS AND COHORT EFFECTS AREA OF TENSION Data requirements Longitudinal design Longitudinal data over several decades Data preferably gathered by asking the same people at different moments in time (stability of sample) Issues regarding practicability Longitudinal design Gathering longitudinal data over decades exceeds the duration of most research efforts by far People often not willing to be asked over long time periods Retrospective design People perfectly reminding when their behavior, attitudes, or other characteristics have changed in the past Retrospective design Contortions due to deficient powers of recollection People might be surveyed at points in time too early to uncover aging/life course of cohort effects Source: Own representation

13 AGENDA Introduction Typical issues at proving aging/life course or cohort effects Analyzing short time series of cross-sectional data in order to prove aging/life course or cohort effects Conclusions

14 Age groups NUMBER OF BUYERS OF CLASSICAL MUSIC SOUND CARRIERS EX POST CALCULATION Population size 2002* Million persons Prop. of buyers of cl. m. sound carriers 1994** Percent Number of buyers of cl. m. sound carriers 2002* Million persons act.: * Forecasted in 1994 ** Assumed as stable over time due to a pure aging/life course effect Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by Bundesverband der Phonographischen Wirtschaft et al. (1994) and by the Federal Statistical Office Germany = 3.582

15 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF FREQUENT CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY DEVELOPMENT OVER TIME Percent Source: Own representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach ( )

16 CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS AND POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY Million persons Classical music listeners Frequent Occasional Pop music listeners Frequent Occasional Source: Own representation based on the data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59)

17 CHANGE ANALYSES LOGIC years of age Aggregated Population size 1994 act. Persons Cl. m. listeners prop Ist Percent Population size 1994 act. Persons Cl. m. listeners prop act. Percent Population size 2002 act. Persons Cl. m. listeners prop act. Percent Number of classical music listeners 1994 actually Persons Δ Number of classical music listeners 2002 based on the 1994 population size Persons Δ Number of classical music listeners 2002 actually Persons Effect due to changes in musical taste Persons Effect due to demographic transition Persons Source: Own representation

18 FREQUENT CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY CHANGES IN NUMBER BETWEEN 1994 AND 2002 Million persons Effect due to changes in musical taste by age groups Effect due to demographic transition by age groups ± (act.) (based on the 1994 population size) Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59) 2002 (act.)

19 FREQUENT POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY CHANGES IN NUMBER BETWEEN 1994 AND 2002 Million persons Effect due to changes in musical taste by age groups Effect due to demographic transition by age groups (act.) (based on the 1994 population size) Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59) 2002 (act.)

20 AGENDA Introduction Typical issues at proving aging/life course or cohort effects Analyzing short time series of cross-sectional data in order to prove aging/life course or cohort effects Conclusions

21 CONCLUSIONS Issues regarding practicability make the proving of aging/ life course effects or cohort effects very hard Analyses of a short time series of cross-sectional data allow to overcome these issues in order to reveal aging/ life course effects or cohort effects Different approaches of data analysis enhance the building confidence in the interpretations and conclusions derived from the data Source: Own representation

22 BACKUP

23 AGE DISTRIBUTION OF SOUND CARRIER BUYERS IN GERMANY 2002 Percent BACKUP Two biggest values Overall Rock music* Pop music Classical music Schlager / folk music** % 100.0% 100.0% 99.9% 100.0% * Incl. hip-hop and rap ** Incl. heavy metal and Deutsch-Rock Source: Own representation based on data published by Bundesverband der Phonographischen Wirtschaft et al. (2003, p. 46)

24 GLOSSARY FOR SOCIOLOGY OF THE LIFE COURSE BACKUP Definitions Aging effect Effect on behavior of growing chronologically older Life course effect Effect on behavior of entering a new life course stage, e. g. getting married, going to have a baby Cohort effect Effect of a specific event on behavior of individuals in cohorts, i. e., a set of contemporaries, experienced during a specific period, lasting longer than that period Idem, lasting for the whole further life course of the individuals Effect of a discontinuous change on the behavior of individuals experienced during the formative period* Period effect Effect of a specific event on behavior of individuals in cohorts, experienced during a specific period, lasting no longer than that period * Also called generation effect Source: Own representation following (07/14/2003), (07/14/2003), and own definitions

25 SOCIALIZATION STAGE MODEL REGARDING THE FORMATION OF AN INDIVIDUAL S BASIC MUSICAL PREFERENCES BACKUP Interest in music Rising phase Plateau phase Fading phase Socialization phase determining the basic orientation of musical taste in later life Years of age Source: Own representation following Behne (1997, 2001), Dollase (1992, 1998), and Holbrook/Schindler (1989)

26 CHI-SQUARED-TEST LUCERNE FESTIVAL (SUMMER 2003) Years of age BACKUP Ascertaining the age distribution of the classical music audience Observed Frequency (f O )*: Age distribution of population: Expected Frequency (f E )*: < % % % % % % % % 13 Formulating hypotheses H 0 : H 1 : The Lucerne Festival audience has the same age structure as the population as a whole in Switzerland. The Lucerne Festival audience has a different age structure as the population as a whole in Switzerland. Computing acceptance boundary/ formulating decision rule Significance level: 99,9 % Degrees of freedom (f): Acceptance boundary (c 99,9 % ): 24,322 f = k-1; k number of = 8-1 classes = 7 Decision rule: Q c 99,9 % Reject H 0 /accept H 1 Q < c 99,9 % Accept H 0 /reject H 1 Calculating Q** Q = Σ k i=1 (f Oi -f Ei ) 2 f Ei = 325,829 c 99,9 % Reject H 0, i.e. in a likelihood of 99.9%, the Lucerne Festival audience has not the same age distribution as the population as a whole in Switzerland. * Specified as absolute frequency; 100 % = 302 persons ** As an approximation of 2 Source: Own representation based on the survey of the Lucerne Festival audience and on data published by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, Neumann (2001, pp )

27 Symphonic occupation Small occupation Opera * Event for subscribers Source: Own representation based on the data published by Dollase/Rüsenberg/Stollenwerk (1986), by Neuhoff (2001), and based on the survey of the Lucerne Festival audience AGE STRUCTURE OF CLASSICAL MUSIC AUDIENCES IN GERMANY INTERTEMPORAL COMPARISON Years of age Between 1980 and 2000, population aged by 3.4 years on average σ µ σ BACKUP London Symphony /80 Orchestra Berlin Philharmonic 1998/ Lucerne Festival 2003 Orlando Quartet Piano trio Christian Zacharias 1979/ / Fidelio (L. v. Beethoven)* Tristan und Isolde (R. Wagner) 1979/ /

28 PROPORTIONS OF FREQUENT CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS AND POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN THE POPULATION IN GERMANY BY AGE GROUPS Percent Classical music listeners Pop music listeners Source: Own representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59)

29 U.S. ATTENDANCE AT CLASSICAL MUSIC CONCERTS BY COHORTS Percent Classical music Opera BACKUP Pre Source: Own representation based on data published by Cherbo/Peters (1995, p. 20)

30 OCCASIONAL CLASSICAL MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY CHANGES IN NUMBER BETWEEN 1994 AND 2002 Million persons BACKUP Effect due to changes in musical taste by age groups Effect due to demographic transition by age groups (act.) (based on the 1994 population size) Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59) 2002 (act.)

31 OCCASIONAL POP MUSIC LISTENERS IN GERMANY CHANGES IN NUMBER BETWEEN 1994 AND 2002 Million persons BACKUP Effect due to changes in musical taste by age groups Effect due to demographic transition by age groups (act.) (based on the 1994 population size) Source: Own computation and representation based on data published by the IfD Allensbach (1994, pp. 1, 39 and 2002, pp. 1, 59) 2002 (act.)

32 PRICE BANDS OF POP/ROCK MUSIC CONCERTS EXAMPLES EUR per ticket BACKUP Rolling Stones Olympiastadion München, 06/06/ Bruce Springsteen Olympiastadion München, 06/10/ Shakira Olympiahalle München, 04/06/2003 Metallica Parkbühne Wuhlheide, Berlin, 06/07/2003 R. E. M. Waldbühne Berlin, 07/ Santana Olympiahalle München, 09/17/2003 Bon Jovi Olympiastadion München, 06/13/2003 Xavier Naidoo* Eisstadion Mannheim, 07/12/2003 * Special Guest: Reamonn Source: Internet

33 PRICE BANDS OF CLASSICAL MUSIC AND OPERA PERFORMANCES EXAMPLES EUR per ticket BACKUP Stuttgarter Philharmoniker Prinzregententheater München, Schubert-Zyklus I, 02/09/2003 Münchener Kammerorchester Abokonzerte, playtime 2002/03 Münchner Symphoniker Herkulessaal der Residenz München, 01/22/2003 Staatstheater am Gärtnerplatz Aschenputtel, 02/05/2003 Symphonieorchester des Bayerischen Rundfunks Reihe A, playtime 2002/03 Münchner Philharmoniker Philharmonie/Gasteig München,02/13/2004 Bayerische Staatsoper Nationaltheater München, Il barbiere di Sivigla, 02/16/ * ** *** * Reduced tickets available at EUR 10. for persons aged 28 and younger ** Reduced tickets available at EUR 8. for pupils and students *** Reduced tickets available at EUR 8. for pupils, students, conscripts, and civilian servants Source: Internet