K-Pop Idol Industry Minhyung Lee

Transcription

1 K-Pop Idol Industry Minhyung Lee

2 1. K-Pop Idol History 2. Idol Industry Factor 3. Regression Analysis 4. Result & Interpretation

3 K-Pop Idol History (1990s) Turning point of Korean Music history : Incorporation of American popular music styles. Firstly introduced by Seotaji & Boys(1992) Starting of the Idol Training system by Lee, Su-man, the founder and producer of the SM Entertainment. - 1st generation of Idol stars came out : H.O.T.(1996) S.E.S.(1997), Sechs Kies(1997), FIN.K.L(1998), Shinhwa(1999), god(1999)

4 K-Pop Idol History(2000s) Early 2000s : Starting of Korean flow upon Japan & Adaption of systematic idol training syste - BoA(2000) Mid of 2000s : New revival and rising of idol industry - DBSK(2003), SS501(2005), Super Junior(2005), BIG BANG(2006) End of 2000s : Opening of the Idol Golden Age & Change in the concept of Idol = Total Entertainer & Expansion of Korean Wave - Wonder Girls(2007), Girls' Generation(2007), SHINee(2008), 2NE1(2009), f(x)(2009), 4minute(2009)

5 K-pop Idols' Golden Age s Ø Golden Age of Idol Industry More than two hundreds of idol groups Expansion of K-Pop to foreign countries. Korean Wave & Globally big Fan culture Considered as one step to be a star Foreign Market is the main part of their profit Idol industry becomes main profit of music industry... Exports by Contry in US Dollar Year Japan China 2008 $11.2 million $1.80 million 2009 $21.6 million $2.36 million 2012 $204 million $3.60 million K-Pop Industry Statistics Year Total Exports in US $ Youtube Views 2008 $16.5 million 2009 $31.3 million 2010 $84.9 million 800 million 2011 $180 million 2.2 billion 2012 $235 million 7.0 billion

6 Costs for 5-member Idol Group Montly Fixed Cost Cost for Releasing New Album Rent of Dorm $1,000 Composition Cost $12,000 Dance Room $1,000 Recording Master $8,000 Food & Snack $3,000 Photography $3,000 Dance Lesson $2,000 Album Jacket Design $4,000 Vocal Lesson $3,000 Costume Design $20,000 Acting Lesson $2,000 Music Video Recording $50,000 Beauty & Cosmetics, Plastic Surgery $10,000 Promotion $100,000 Director Casting $3,000 Hair & Make-up $5,000 Staff wage $15,000 Dance Creation $6,000 Back Dancer Wage $7,000 Sum $40,000 Etc $215,000 v More than $400,000 to train groups and release one album in 6 months

7 K-pop Idols' Golden Age s But also Red Ocean of Idol Industry Too many idol groups these days - More than 200 groups in total Lots of money spent to make a debute of one idol group Year Number of Groups Debuted v From now on, they need to access to this industry systematically, which properties and factors are needed.

8 1. K-Pop Idol History 2. Idol Industry Factor 3. Regression Analysis 4. Result & Interpretation

9 K-pop Idols' Revenue 1.Streaming Music File (MP3 File) 2. Album Sales 3. Concert / Musical Performances 4. MV Advertisements 5. Individual Acts (ex. Drama / Movie / Musical) 6. International Events

10 Factors related to Idol Industry Ø Outer result of Idol groups Sales amount of Music albums Online Download Sales Number of View of Music Videos on Youtube Ø Internal factor of Each Idol Groups Pretty, Handsome face & Skinny body - TV, Movie, CF Good Singing Skills - Basic skill for singer, Musical Act Gorgeous Dancing Skills - Basic skill for k-pop star - Basic skill for k-pop star Number of Members

11 Data Collection Music sales amount & online download from Gaon Chart, Korean Bill-board Number of Views from Youtube Dance Level from WAWA Dance academy Information about each groups from Naver Appearance and Popularity from Survey

12 Data Collection Album Sales & Online Download Sales Sales Data Album Sales Amount from Album Chart of Gaon Chart Music Files Salen Amount from Download Chart in Gaon Chart Some Music Files didn't have the data on the Top 100 Download Chart, even though that albums were on the Top 100 Album Chart I divided the download sales amount by 100,000, so that the scores of download amount of all groups can be put between 0 and 5.

13 Data Collection Youtube Views & Dance Level Youtube Views Got the youtube music video views from the number shown on the bottom of videos. Divided the number of views according to the year when the song came out, so that I can get the yearly view. Dance Level Dance Level dat from the wawa dance academy, which is one of the famous dance group in Korea They divided the level from 1 to 7. 1 is the easiest and 7 is the hardest.

14 Data Collection Appearance & Popularity Appearance For appearance data, I got the data of each members in one group and divided the sum of the scores by the number of members, so that I could get the average appearance data. Apperance score is from 1 to 5. 5 is the most gorgeous looking Popularity For Popularity data, I got the data of each group from the survey. Popularity score is from 1 to is the most popular group. For equality, I divided the score according to each groups' debute year, because usually the old groups have more popularity.

15 Data

16 1. K-Pop Idol History 2. Idol Industry Factor 3. Regression Analysis 4. Result & Interpretation

17 Regression Model 1(Album Sales Amount) y = x x x x x5 y : Album Sales Amount x1 : Popularity x2 : Vocal Level x3 : Dance Level x4 : Appearance x5 : Number of Members Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Popularity Vocal Dance Appearance Members

18 Regression Model 1 y = x x x x x5 Residual standard error: on 26 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 5 and 26 DF p-value: Since p-value is very low, this model is significant

19 Regression Analysis 1 Residual - Estimate Graph Normality Graph In the Residual - Estimate graph, it showed some pattern. Therefore this model is not covariant. In the Normality graph, it follwed the normality pattern.

20 Hypothesis Test for Subset 1 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 3 = β 4 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 3 : Dance X 4 : Appearance Reduced Model y = x x x5 Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Popularity Vocal Members E-05 Residual standard error: on 28 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 3 and 28 DF, p-value: 2.509e-06

21 Hypothesis Test Result 1 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 3 = β 4 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 3 : Dance X 4 : Appearance Ø Result y = x x x5 F = {( ) / 2} / ( /26) = < F 0.95(2, 26) = 3.37, so H 0 is not rejected As a result, Reduced Model is more adequate.

22 Regression Model 2 (Online Download Sales) y = x x x x x5 y : Online Download Sales x1 : Popularity x2 : Vocal Level x3 : Dance Level x4 : Appearance x5 : Number of Members Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Popularity Vocal Dance Appearance Members

23 Regression Model 2 Ø y = x x x x x5 Residual standard error: on 26 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 5 and 26 DF, p-value: Since p-value is low, this model is significant

24 Regression Analysis 2 Residual - Estimate Graph Normality Graph In the Residual - Estimate graph, it showed some pattern. Therefore this model is not covariant. In the Normality graph, it slightly follwed the normality pattern.

25 Hypothesis Test for Subset 2 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 1 = β 3 = β 4 = β 5 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 1 : Popularity X 3 : Dance X 4 : Appearance X 5 : Number of Members Reduced Model y = x2 Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Vocal Residual standard error: on 30 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 1 and 30 DF, p-value: Since p-value is low, this model is significant

26 Hypothesis Test Result 2 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 1 = β 3 = β 4 = β 5 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 1 : Popularity X 3 : Dance X 4 : Appearance X 5 : Number of Members Ø Result y = x2 F = {( ) / 4} / ( / 26) = < F 0.95(4, 26) = 2.74, so H 0 is not rejected As a result, Reduced Model is more adequate.

27 Regression Model 3 (Youtube Video Views) y = x x x x x5 y : Youtube Music Video Views x1 : Popularity x2 : Vocal Level x3 : Dance Level x4 : Appearance x5 : Number of Members Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Popularity Vocal Dance Appearance Members

28 Regression Model 3 Ø y = x x x x x5 Residual standard error: on 26 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 5 and 26 DF, p-value: Since p-value is low, this model is significant

29 Regression Analysis 3 Residual - Estimate Graph Normality Graph In the Residual - Estimate graph, it showed some pattern. Therefore this model is not covariant. In the Normality graph, it follwed the normality pattern.

30 Hypothesis Test for Subset 3 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 1 = β 2 = β 3 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 1 : Popularity X 2 : Vocal Level X 3 : Dance Level Reduced Model y = x x5 Estimate Std. Error t-value Pr(> t ) (Intercept) Appearance Members Residual standard error: on 29 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: F-statistic: on 2 and 29 DF, p-value: Since p-value is low, this model is significant

31 Hypothesis Test Result 3 Ø Hypothesis for Subset Model H 0 : β 1 = β 2 = β 3 = 0 H 1 : not H 0 X 1 : Popularity X 2 : Vocal Level X 3 : Dance Level Ø Result y = x x5 F = {( ) / 3} / ( / 26) = < F 0.95(3, 26) = 2.98, so H 0 is not rejected As a result, Reduced Model is more adequate.

32 1. K-Pop Idol History 2. Idol Industry Factor 3. Regression Analysis 4. Result & Interpretation

33 Result Analysis Reduced Model 1 (Album Sales Amount) y = x x x5 Residual standard error: on 28 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: p-value: 2.509e-06, No covariance & Normality Reduced Model 2 (Online Download Sales) y = x2 Residual standard error: on 30 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: p-value: No covariance & Weak Normality Reduced Model (Youtube Music Video View) y = x x5 Residual standard error: on 29 degrees of freedom Multiple R-squared: , Adjusted R-squared: p-value: No covariance & Normality Most Significant Model 1 has the biggest R-squared and the smallest p-value Therefore, Model 1 is the most significant

34 Result Analysis Reduced Model 1 (Album Sales Amount) y = x x x5 Popularity Vocal Level # of Members More popular groups have more amount of album sales because of the number of fans will be more than non-popular groups If the vocal level is high in the group, then the range of songs can be wide. Therefore, people can have more interest to their songs. If the number of members are many, they can satisfy different tastes of each fans. As a result, more people will buy those groups' albums

35 Final Analysis and Limit For the idol groups, the great vocal skill can be considered as the most important factors. Number of members should be considered too when the agency plans to make a new idol group. Appearance preference is very different from person by person, so it doesn't have to be considered as much as vocal skills. Dance level will be different from each group's songs, so the dance level of one song can't be representative of the whole groups' dance skill. Also, most of the input data was very subjective, which means those can be different if I get it from different people. Because of this, there was a problem of lack of covariance.

36 References ear ogno= ER9yg

37 Thank You