December 1, IDE-JETRO Symposium 1

Transcription

1 IDE Symposium Panel 1 The Global Economic Crisis and East Asian Perspectives 01 December 2009 Presented by Yoshihisa INADA Konan University December 1, 2009 IDE-JETRO Symposium 1

2 Contents The impacts of the global economic crisis on the Japanese economy Forecast suggests The current condition and prospects of the Japanese economy Recent development Simulation: from concrete to human IDE-JETRO Symposium 2

3 The global recession was over but the forward path is not clearly illuminated Growth Pattern: Q/Q: % EU27 U.S.A Japan q q q q q q q q q q q q03 IDE-JETRO Symposium 3

4 How long and deep global recession drags on Japan s economic recovery Growth Pattern of the Japanese Economy Forecast Q1 08Q2 08Q3 08Q4 09Q1 09Q2 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q1 IDE-JETRO Symposium 4

5 CQM Forecast July July-September Real GDP Growth Track Record of the Japanese CQM: Real GDP Growth, 09Q3(%, SAAR) Market Consensus Average PrincipalComponent Official Figure Expenditure Side /25 6/01 6/08 6/15 6/22 6/29 7/06 7/13 7/20 7/27 8/03 8/10 8/18 8/24 8/31 9/08 9/14 9/21 9/28 10/05 10/12 10/19 10/26 11/02 11/09 First IDE-JETRO Symposium 5

6 Current state t of the economy 1 production recovery and inventory adjustment Industrial Production: SA: 2005=100 % Chg: MoM: R Production Index: L 02M01 02M04 02M07 02M10 03M01 03M04 03M07 03M10 04M01 04M04 04M07 04M10 05M01 05M04 05M07 05M10 06M01 06M04 06M07 06M10 07M01 07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04 09M % Shipme ent Index: YoY: Inventory Adjustment: Manufacturing: January 07-September ( 12.1, 16.8) Inventory Index: YoY % Y September industrial production rose +2.1% on month, up seven months in a row. For July-September, the index grew 7.4%, up for the second straight quarter. But the overall production level is still only about 80% of the recent peak. The shipment index for September gained 4.2% %on month,,upse seven e months in a row. The inventory index fell 0.4% on month, the first decline in two months. As a result, the inventory (to shipment) ratio index plunged 50% 5.0%, down four months in a row. IDE-JETRO Symposium 6

7 Current state of the economy 2 The pace of recovery in consumer sentiment is slowing The consumer sentiment index stood at 40.5 in October, unchanged from the previous month. The pace of recovery in consumer sentiment is slowing. Economy Watchers Survey index fell 2.2 point month on month to On the other hand, the survey s forward index fell 1.7 point on month to 42.8 in October, falling for the first time in two month Overall Consumer Confidence Index M03 00M12 01M09 02M06 03M03 03M12 04M05 04M08 04M11 05M02 05M05 05M08 05M11 06M02 06M05 06M08 06M11 07M02 07M05 07M08 07M11 08M02 08M05 08M08 08M11 09M02 09M05 09M Economy Watchers Survey: Overall Index CurrentOutlook Future Outlook 02M02 02M05 02M08 02M11 03M02 03M05 03M08 03M11 04M02 04M05 04M08 04M11 05M02 05M05 05M08 05M11 06M02 06M05 06M08 06M11 07M02 07M05 07M08 07M11 08M02 08M05 08M08 08M11 09M02 09M05 09M08 IDE-JETRO Symposium 7

8 Current state of the economy 3 Investment recovery in the middle of FY10 The capital goods shipment index for September jumped 10.7% over month. It gained for the first time in two months. For July-September, the index rose 8.1% over the quarter, the first gain in seven quarters. Private core machinery orders rose 10.5% in September from the previous month. Due to strong demand from non-manufacturers and overseas, they marked the second straight month rise. Shipment Index of Capital Goods: SA: 2005=100 Core Private Machinery Orders: % Chg %Chg: MoM: R Capital Goods Shipment: L MoM: L YoY: R M01 02M04 02M07 02M10 03M01 03M04 03M07 03M10 04M01 04M04 04M07 04M10 05M01 05M04 05M07 05M10 06M01 06M04 06M07 06M10 07M01 07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04 09M07 02M01 02M04 02M07 02M10 03M01 03M04 03M07 03M10 04M01 04M04 04M07 04M10 05M01 05M04 05M07 05M10 06M01 06M04 06M07 06M10 07M01 07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04 09M07 IDE-JETRO Symposium 8

9 Current state of the economy 4 Exports: engine of growth driver Export volume in October fell 13.0% on year, down 15 months in a row. But it rose 10.3% on month, showing an uptrend since March Exports continue to gain growth momentum. By region, Asia s exports pull Japan s economy out of recession. Export volume to Asia inched down 1.9% on year in October. On the other, export to US and EU plunged 21% and 26.7% respectively YoY: L Export Volume: %Chg MoM: R 02M01 02M04 02M07 02M10 03M01 03M04 03M07 03M10 04M01 04M04 04M07 04M10 05M01 05M04 05M07 05M10 06M01 06M04 06M07 06M10 07M01 07M04 07M07 07M10 08M01 08M04 08M07 08M10 09M01 09M04 09M07 09M to Asia: to EU Export Volume: YoY: % to China to USA M 02M 02M 02M 03M 03M 03M 03M 04M 04M 04M 04M 05M 05M 05M 05M 06M 06M 06M 06M 07M 07M 07M 07M 08M 08M 08M 08M 09M 09M 09M 09M IDE-JETRO Symposium 9

10 Baseline forecast FY Real GDP Growth FY %, FY %, FY % Thanks to supplementary budget for FY09 and the recovery of the global economy Core CPI Inflation FY %, FY %, FY % Continued deflation Temporally lull ll of the economy for FY2010 It takes more than 3 years to achieve the latest peak IDE-JETRO Symposium 10

11 Outline of baseline forecast Current 2009/11/26 Previous (2009/8/ Real GDP (%) Private Demand (Contribution) Private Consumption (%) Residential Investment (%) Nonresidential Investment (%) Change in Private Inventory Contrivution Public Demand (Contribution) Government Consumption (%) Public Investment (%) Change in Public Inventory (Contribution) Net Exports (Contribution) Exports (%) Import (%) Nominal GDP (%) GDP Deflator (%) Domestic CGPI (%) Core CPI (%) Industrial Production Index (%) New Housing Starts (%) Jobless Rate (%) Current Account Balance (Y Trillion) vs. Nominal GDP Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl) Exchange Rate (Y/$) US Real GDP Growth (%, CY) IDE-JETRO Symposium 11

12 FY %, 2.3%, FY %, FY % fiscal stimuli and stabilization of the global economy Real GDP Growth and Its Contribution: %pts % Private Demand Net Exports Public Demand Real GDP Growth IDE-JETRO Symposium 12

13 Private consumption grows thanks to fiscal stimuli and nonresidential investment bottoms out in FY2010 Contribution to Private Demand % Private Consumption Nonresidential Investment Residential Investment IDE-JETRO Symposium 13

14 Deflationary pressure continues Continued Deflationary Pressure % GDP Deflator CGPI Core CPI IDE-JETRO Symposium 14

15 From concrete to human economic impact of new government policy Cut off a part of supplementary budget for FY2009 Real GDP Y1.261 trillion, -0.24% pts for FY2009 Fiscal policy: from concrete to human Real GDP: +3% 03% FY2010, +0.2% FY2011 Real private consumption: Y1.66 trillion FY2010, Y3.35 trillion FY2011 Real public demand: -Y1.52 trillion FY2010, -Y2.72 trillion FY2011 Implication New growth strategy: green industry Domestic demand or foreign demand IDE-JETRO Symposium 15

16 Table1 Baseline and the impact of cut in supplementary budget FY 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q Private Consumption 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Residential Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Nonresidential Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Government Consumption 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Public Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Exports 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Imports 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff GDP 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 1 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Real GDP Growth: SAAR: % 1. Baseline Simulation Diff

17 Table2 The impct of New Government Policy: from concrete to human FY 09Q3 09Q4 10Q1 10Q2 10Q3 10Q4 11Q1 11Q2 11Q3 11Q4 12Q Private Consumption 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Residential Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Nonresidential Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Government Consumption 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Public Investment 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Exports 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Imports 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff GDP 1. Baseline (YTrillion) Simulation 2 (YTrillion) Diff (YTrillion) % Diff Real GDP Growth: SAAR: % 1. Baseline Simulation Diff