Justina Vasquez December 2, 2015 Comcast Corp. Cable Services Division: 3-Year Strategic Plan

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1 Justina Vasquez December 2, 2015 Comcast Corp. Cable Services Division: 3-Year Strategic Plan Executive Summary Comcast Corporation provides cable video, telephone and Internet services to million subscribers 1 in households across the United States. The company, along with other cable companies, is being faced with declining revenues from decreased market penetration. Millennials, the generation of young Americans born between the early 1980s and the late- 1990s, don t adopt their parents habits of subscribing to cable services at the same rates their parents did. This phenomenon, called cord cutting, is the primary challenge Comcast s cable services faces today. In response to cord cutting, there are two fronts at which the company can strengthen its profitability. The first is in its cable video services. Comcast has recently invested in a digital video channel supported by its newest set-top box that distributes content from 32 semiprofessional content creators 2. The company has the opportunity to source specialized video content from these partners, as well as from partners at NBCUniversal. Along with general content targeted at millennials, Comcast should capitalize on its investment in NextVR, a virtual reality (VR) technology company, and partner with its set-top box video partners and NBCUniversal to begin development of VR content, including digital television shows and video games. The second front by which Comcast can strengthen its profitability is in wireless data industry. The Federal Communications Commission will host in March an auction of space in the airwave spectrum. Many companies in the wireless data industry plan to participate in the auction, and Comcast, an emerging player in the industry has room to offer competitive wireless data services to its customers, particularly if it targets niche groups, like millennials. This approach should allow Comcast s cable services division to reach 5 percent profit growth by the fourth quarter of Recent History Comcast spent this year investing in initiatives that will move it toward a wider range of market segments. This spring, Comcast was prepared to acquire Time Warner Cable (TWC), but when government pushback too greatly threatened a successful acquisition within a reasonable period of time, Comcast canceled the deal. The deal was more than a year in the making and was valued at $45.2 billion. This summer, Comcast announced 3 Stream, a new skinny bundle 4 service that allows Xfinity 5 Internet customers to stream or record live television onto their computers and mobile devices anywhere they are. The company has yet to report data on Stream s success 6. Stream is just Comcast s latest attempt at online streaming. In 2009, Comcast and Time Warner partnered 7 1 Vasquez

2 to offer their cable video services at no extra cost to subscribers via any computer or cell phone connected to the Internet. In August, Comcast made another move against the growing and incessant cord-cutting phenomenon. The company s NBCUniversal division invested $200 million 8 each in Vox Media Inc. and BuzzFeed Inc., securing the company 20 percent and 13 percent 9 stakes in two online news and entertainment content production companies popular among millennials. This gives NBCUniversal access to new digital content and technology 10, as well as editorial and advertising avenues, while giving BuzzFeed and Vox access to a traditional media outlet, broadening its audience, and expanding its earnings potential. Accenting its investments in the companies, Comcast revealed 11 its plans to form a video channel called Watchable with Vox Media, Vice Media, DreamWorks Animation s AwesomenessTV and about 30 other digital content companies that targets young viewers. The channel, released in October 12, is available on the company s X1 set-top box, a product that allows Xfinity customers to buy and rent shows and movies on their TV. Currently 13, 25 percent of customers have an X1 box in their homes, and this quarter 60% of video installations were for the X1 box, totaling nearly 1 million new and existing customer installations and service upgrades. Comcast s investment in content creation targeted at younger viewers shows its willingness to learn 14 more about the changing media front. This year, Comcast s shares have traded between $58 and $65 for a few months, seeing relatively little growth compared to cable and satellite industry competitors Time Warner Cable, Cablevision, Charter Communications, DirecTV and Dish Network. It has a market cap of $152 billion, well above the industry average of about $63 billion. Its stock price remained near the median of the industry. The nearest competitor is Time Warner Cable, which has a market capitalization of about $52 billion. Current Market and Competitive Position The media industry is in a cyclone. It manages to grow, investing in new revenue streams and improved products, but it is challenged by waning profit margins and quickly changing consumer habits. One of these changing habits, cord cutting, or the rising phenomenon of cable customers canceling their subscriptions in favor of online streaming, has plagued the media industry since the mid-2000s. Computer ownership and high-speed broadband Internet access has become virtually omnipresent across the U.S., with 83.8 percent of U.S. households owning a computer and 74.4 percent of U.S. households reporting Internet use 15. Consumers have greater access to video content consumption when and where they want it. Previously, this consumption occurred illegally through largely free Internet downloads of music, television shows and films. More recently, competitors such as Netflix and Apple itunes began offering content for personal downloads through paid subscriptions, as well as one-time payments 16. The rise of video streaming has adversely affected the number of customers loyal to the cable industry. Here at Comcast, despite our efforts to encourage multi-tiered subscriptions 17, 48 2 Vasquez

3 thousand video subscribers canceled their cable subscriptions this quarter, and a total of 124 thousand canceled this year 17. Although those numbers improved from last year, we intend to take steps to prolong reversal of these numbers and grow our subscription rates. Particularly reliant 18 on Comcast s improved performance over the coming years are Comcast CEO Brian Roberts, who owns or manages 100 percent of the company s privately held shares, and investment management firms Black Rock Inc., Capitol World Investors and The Vanguard Group, which own 6.3 percent, 6.2 percent and 5.8 percent of the publicly traded voting class stock, the largest amounts of shares held by single institutions. Comcast earned nearly two-thirds 19 of its revenue from cable operations by the end of 2014, and it outperforms its peers in the industry on many fronts. The company s net debt-to- EBITDA ratio is , second only to DirecTV, an AT&T subsidiary company, with a ratio of Comcast s total debt-to-ebitda ratio is 1.97, stronger than all other cable and satellite video providers. Its EBITDA growth of 7.02 percent 21 and year-over-year sales growth of 6.37 percent 22 are above the industry averages of 3.60 percent and 3.45 percent. The company s net profit margin 23 of percent is nearly double the industry average of 6.22 percent. However, although Comcast s net income growth of percent is greater than the industry average of percent, it falls below satellite competitor DirecTV, which has net income growth of percent, and far below satellite competitor Dish Network with net income growth of percent. Based on these and other data, 23 of 29 analysts give the company s stock a buy, the other 6 analysts giving the stock a hold; no analysts give the stock a sell. Overall, the cable and satellite industry was worth $200.5 billion in New big players in the industry are rare given a high barrier to entry. One considerable threat, however, is Netflix Inc. Netflix is currently valued at $53.4 billion 25. Although it s valued at about 27.6 percent 26 of Comcast s enterprise valuation, its ability to grow new subscribers is unmatched. At 21.4 percent 27 increase in new customers from this time a year ago compared to Comcast s 0.53 percent year over year decrease 28, Netflix not only competes with Comcast cable and their X1 box, but the two companies also compete with other video streaming services, including YouTube, Facebook 29, Hulu, Amazon Prime, HBO GO, Apple TV, Google Chrome Cast and Verizon s Go90. Netflix is almost considered its own channel 30. Recently, it has secured an agreement 31 with The Walt Disney Company to have the ABC logo appear on episodes of the network s hit show How to Get Away with Murder anytime they are streamed on the Netflix site. 32 This indicates a shifting power dynamic between content creators and content distributors. Historically, one or the other has had greater bargaining power. But currently, both seem to seek vertical control over the media industry. Along with broadening their cable services, Comcast and the other video distributors want to enter the business of content creation (i.e. Comcast s Watchable and its investments in BuzzFeed and Vox; and Netflix s House of Cards, Orange is the New Black, Beasts of No Nation, etc.). Meanwhile, the TV networks want to distribute content (i.e. WatchABC; Disney, Fox and NBCUniversal s Hulu 33 ; and HBO Go). 3 Vasquez

4 Virtual reality is another emerging technology in the media industry. It offers an alternative to the way audiences experience digital content. In the coming years, as more companies invest in it and as the technology evolves, the focus of its development will be on video content, which makes it prime technology for integration with Internet streaming services. VR benefits Comcast s competitors, in video streaming, but it is also a strategic nesting ground for our company. Comcast recently joined 34 in a $30.5 million funding round for NextVR Inc., a virtual reality technology company that has shown a great ability to capture an audience: on the company s resume are virtual-reality broadcasts of a 2016 Election Democratic debate and this season s National Basketball Association opening game 35. Strategic and Financial Options Continued steps toward streaming and address of changing preferences As has been discussed, consumers decreasing desire for cable video subscriptions is threatening Comcast s cable operations. Cable video represents 46.6 percent 36 of cable industry s operations, its largest business segment. For this reason, an increased video streaming presence is a prime option for addressing changing consumer habits and future growth of the Comcast s video services. One way to accomplish this is ownership of video streaming technology and partnership with or ownership of content creation companies. Comcast is already doing this with its X1 box. Although X1 box subscribers are decreasingly canceling their cable subscriptions 37, Comcast s overall cable subscriptions have remained either stagnant or decreasing 38 over the last five years. The addition of millennial-targeted content that meets the needs of our changing customer base could strengthen the X1 box compared to our traditional cable service. The company may have the option to acquire one or a few of these media companies. Our discontinued acquisition of TWC this spring was valued at $45.2 billion. Considering BuzzFeed and Vox are each valued at less than $2 billion and considering our recent acquisition of minority stakes in both companies, the two are positioned as primary targets for such a deal. However, both companies are growing in value and could continue to benefit Comcast as independent companies. As NBCUniversal CEO Steve Burke said about BuzzFeed in a statement 39, They reach a massive, loyal audience and have proven to be among the most creative, popular and influential new media players. BuzzFeed s CEO commented 40 that its latest round of funding gave it leverage to avoid seeking acquisitions from larger companies. BuzzFeed also recently agreed to a stock split 41, increasing the number of its shares 10-fold, a move commonly made when a company decides on an initial public offering. This would make the company more challenging to acquire, but more valuable in Comcast s portfolio. Vox CEO Jim Bankoff has emphasized that Vox plans to remain independent for the foreseeable future. Comcast also has the option to take advantage of its NBCUniversal segment and its status as an already well-established cable network company and one of the four largest U.S. broadcasting companies. Currently, Comcast has plans to include content from NBC Sports in its 4 Vasquez

5 X1 box channel. NBCUniversal could further its collaboration with the Xfinity brand by creating specialized content exclusively for Watchable. As Comcast continues to see growth in X1 box subscribers, we expect all of our Xfinity boxes to be replaced with X1 boxes by , making our new content and steaming service available to all cable video subscribers and providing the company with a major additional advertising revenue source. Addition of virtual reality to the X1 set-top box Comcast recently invested in a prominent virtual reality technology developer. VR is expected to become the next major medium, joining radio, television and film 43. In the past, virtual reality seemed like a futuristic technology for video games. However, it has grown into a means of telling immersive stories, like inviting fans into sporting events 44 and music concerts 45 for which they couldn t get tickets. Comcast has the option to partner with NextVR on content creation for its X1 set-top box, whether through an application exclusively for NextVR s content, similar to a Netflix app or a Spotify app, or through its cable network channels. That other large media companies have also invested in virtual reality including Time Warner Inc. (in NextVR), Facebook Inc., Sony Corp. and HTC Corp. 46 indicates that the technology shows promise in the market. The market for VR content is estimated to be valued at $5.4 billion by Three-dimensional movie revenue growth indicates that viewers are willing to wear simple and compact headgear for an alternate video experience, which could translate to strong demand for mass VR consumption as VR headgear evolves. However, it may be a disadvantage that high demand for residential VR consumption has not been proven as pervasive as radio television or film consumption due to the large goggles 48 often associated with it. The act of going to a movie theater is different from binge watching a show on a laptop from a couch, and little research has been done on whether consumers like our X1 set-top box subscribers would be willing use such headgear casually in their homes. Another disadvantage to virtual reality integration is the cost of the headsets. The average selling price of each unit is estimated to be $125 47, creating a market worth about $62 billion in the next 10 years. Currently, Comcast video subscribers pay nothing beyond their cable bill, the cost of their TV and their electricity bill to enjoy video services. The adoption of VR would create an additional cost for them that some may not be willing to pay until innovation and competition in the industry lower VR headset prices. Entrance into the wireless communication market During the spring of 2016, The Federal Communications Commission is expected to auction off $56.3 billion dollars worth of the airwave spectrum. 49 In light of the auction, Comcast has acted on an agreement it made with Verizon Communications Inc. three years ago to offer wireless services to customers. The agreement allowed Comcast to purchased some of Verizon s space on airwave spectrum and rebrand it as a Comcast service 50 making us the first major 5 Vasquez

6 U.S. joint cable and mobile virtual network provider (MVNO). Recently, the company has also been replacing many customers residential wireless Internet routers for dual routers that also offer hot spot connectivity. These moves toward greater reach to our increasingly mobileoriented customer base put the company in position to enter the 2016 FCC auction. Right now, the wireless carrier industry is characterized by price wars among the big 4 companies (AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Sprint, in that order 51 ) who offer largely similar services. Therefore, one challenge for Comcast would be differentiating its product services. Comcast may have the option to acquire a wireless network company. T-Mobile U.S. Inc. CEO John Legere has made mention 52 of a possible T-Mobile acquisition by another company, but analysts haven t given the talk much credit. The company is valued at $51.6 billion 53, Binge On, a free upgrade to T-Mobile s Simple Choice plan 54, offers T-Mobile a few advantages in the wireless market. It targets the cord-cutting generation. Largely consisting of young adults who are beginning to settle on their consumption habits 55, millennials offer T- Mobile a prime market of customers switching over from other wireless providers who want to enjoy more online streaming content without increased high-speed data fees. The company also offers to pay off remaining phone bills and contracts with other carriers as an incentive to switch. However, T-Mobile has been criticized on its latest wireless deal, Binge On. The wireless company has been accused of ruining the Internet and being ignorant of net neutrality 56 ; Binge On will give customers access to faster Internet speeds at no additional cost and with no tax on customers data limits, given they are trying to reach online services from partnered companies, including Netflix, Spotify, Google Play Music and others. That Netflix is 36.5 percent 57 of Internet usage in North America means T-Mobile has allowed itself to become an authority on which online spaces should be visited by users, making it harder for smaller companies to compete 58 with the nation s large companies like Netflix, Spotify and Google. Such unequal access also disadvantages online spaces that are not dedicated to streaming services. These ethical dilemmas could prove disadvantageous to Comcast if we considered acquiring T-Mobile. Recommendations for Corporate Strategy We recommend Comcast s cable services division adopt a three-year, three-prong strategy that addresses both our video service and high-speed data service divisions. Initially, partnerships with content creation companies for the X1 set-top box is the most promising of the options presented. As Comcast has recently released Watchable, the digital channel targeted at millennials, the company should expand on its sources of specialized content creation by taking advantage of its NBCUniversal segment. By the end of 2017, the company should be prepared to launch specialized video content from the NBCUniversal networks for Watchable, which we expect will lead to sustained customer growth among millennials and the younger generation. However, Comcast needs to ensure millennials perceive few barriers to trying its cable services. Marketing and advertising a specialized deal for this market for at least a limited period of time could break the barrier that is keeping them from trying the X1 box. 6 Vasquez

7 By the following year, the virtual reality industry should have developed a standard headset type with technology that makes it more appealing and affordable to a wider consumer market than it is today. Comcast s investment in VR will then become more valuable, opening space in the market for an app on the X1 box specialized for VR content from various content creators. This is the second prong of our proposed strategy. Because video games evolve alongside the rest of video and entertainment technology, the X1 box should also support gaming apps within three years, particularly those that integrate virtual reality into their user experiences. As a combined cable video set-top box, video streaming service and video gaming console, Comcast s X1 box perhaps called the X3 by 2018 would reach not only millennials, but with the appropriate content would also reach younger and older generations, similar to the Star Wars content releasing now that crosses three generations of fans. The wireless communication industry is the third prong of our proposed strategy. It is a promising market, and Comcast has already begun entry into it. Comcast should acquire segments of the airwave spectrum this spring and develop customer loyalty around its dual Wi- Fi/hot spot routers, later encouraging those customers to be the first to switch their wireless plans to Comcast s. Beyond ownership of part of the airwave spectrum, the company should invest in T-Mobile, which has outlined an approach to attracting and retaining millennial customers. The mobile carrier may see turbulence in the coming months due to claims of net neutrality violations, so investment will allow for extended consideration of targeting T-Mobile for acquisition and extended financial preparation for the possible acquisition, as it is valued at more than the TWC acquisition attempt. Conclusion By adopting this three-prong approach Comcast should see increased profits in its cable services division of at least 2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2016 and increased profits of at least 5 percent in the division by the fourth quarter of We expect these strides toward broadening our primary customer demographics will allow the cable services division to grow into a more competitive video platform and regain shares of the market lost to the rise of online Internet video streaming. We also expect that with evolving services, like virtual reality content and wireless data service, we will better exercise our core competencies as a premiere video, data and voice services company. Sources and Notes 1 JZ/view Vasquez

8 4 5 Xfinity is an Internet, television and phone service targeted at changing customer preference toward video streaming services and mobile device integration million-in-buzzfeed 9 Comast s stake in Vox Media = $200 million $1 billion valuation = 20 percent. Comcast s stake in BuzzFeed = $200 million $1.5 billion valuation = 13.3 percent (p. 31) d bc6b396b59/COMCAST_2015_Proxy_Statement_Book_Marked.pdf QVpN/view 21 NUNN/view 22 JZ/view 23 RNUNN/view?usp=sharing 8 Vasquez

9 24 RkZk1z/view (Netflix enterprise value = $53.4 billion) (Comcast enterprise value = $193.3 billion) = 27.6 percent; Source: 2aU5R/view 27 (11.9 million subscribers million subscribers) / 9.8 million subscribers = 21.4 percent; Source: MnVj/view Y4Y19v/view ?alg=y&mg=id-wsj 32 The Disney-Netflix agreement stems from how TV networks are struggling to stay relevant now that streaming provides a single channel to watch content from any network easily. Disney likely chose HTGAWM as its pilot show to stamp with their logo on Netflix because it s high TV ratings, but also because it has a huge following on Netflix as viewers watch (often binge watch) Season 1 to catch up with live airings. Source: 33 NBCUniversal partnered News Corp on Hulu in 2007, before its merger with Comcast. Source: CBS Harvard BR Case Study ?mg=id-wsj ?mg=id-wsj MVZN/view Vasquez

10 ?mg=id-wsj This is partly for the FCC to raise money and partly because it s expected that carriers will need 350 MHz more spectrum by 2019 half as much as will be sold next spring Vasquez

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