TV Today. Lose Small, Win Smaller. Rating Change Distribution Percent of TV Shows vs , Broadcast Upfronts 1

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Derick Preston
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Rating Change Distribution Percent of TV Shows 27-28 vs.

Slow and steady drops in viewership are the new norm for linear TV.

2 Rating Change Distribution Percent of TV Shows vs. -, Broadcast Upfronts 1 TV Today Figure % 18% 29% 24% 11% Lose Small, Win Smaller 3 out of 4 weekly broadcast shows lost up to 1% of their audience between seasons last year. Slow and steady drops in viewership are the new norm for linear TV. 1-2 point drop point drop Less than point drop Less than point increase - 1 point increase 1% 22% 52% 14% 2% As TV seasons turn, a consistent portion of shows linear audience members trickle away. In, 74% of weekly broadcast shows saw their average rating drop by up to 1 point from the prior season. In 28, that number was 47%. Today, few shows see growth in their linear ratings - but few weather major declines, as well. The range of movement is narrowing, making the linear TV landscape more predictable. Advertisers can anticipate a small but steady portion of their TV audience to leave each year, forcing them to locate those viewers elsewhere. This paper uses commissioned Nielsen data and TubeMogul analysis to answer two crucial questions for marketers: How much of the audience I bought last year will tune in next season, and where can I find those taking a break from the cable box? 1 Broadcast upfronts are programs on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, and NBC that air once per week. 2 TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 3

African Americans Your Audience Tomorrow Figure 2 Average TV Ratings by Genre -17% -15% TV Value A selection of hit dramas on major networks reach incredibly high concentrations of African American

3 African Americans Your Audience Tomorrow Figure 2 Average TV Ratings by Genre -17% -15% TV Value A selection of hit dramas on major networks reach incredibly high concentrations of African American viewers, making these programs sound investments for advertisers despite overall rating declines. African Americans (18+) Millennials (18 34) Heavy TV Viewers (Top Quintile, 18+) Light TV Viewers (Bottom Quintile, 18+) Bilingual Hispanics (English-Spanish, 18+) Figure 3 Hit Shows Drive Reach -6% -5% Drama Comedy Sports Reality 27-8% News/Talk Combined ratings for the top 5 programs were 9% higher in than in 27. Top 5 Programs by Rating 27 NFL Post Game, CBS NFL Post Game, Fox Sunday Night Football CSI Miami House of Payne Empire The Have and Have Nots Scandal How to Get Away with Murder Rosewood Recent drama programming on top networks has captured massive reach among African Americans. Though the widespread shift away from TV exists within the audience, tentpole TV buys remain an effective approach to reach a base of Black viewers. 4 TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 5

4 Millennials Figure 4 Average TV Ratings by Genre -22% -19% -18% WOMEN -24% MEN -12% -16% +3% -7% Cross-Screen Future There is no shortage of paths to millennials, but marketers must contend with fragmentation and an ever-changing media landscape. Not consolidated on specifc devices or channels, younger generations demand a dynamic, cross-screen strategy. -12% -14% Drama Comedy Reality Sports News/ Talk Fragmentation and Choice While the shift away from traditional TV is nearly uniform across Millennials, disparate digital habits within the generation complicate media planning. For example, year olds spend 65% more time with computers than their younger counterparts - and that's just a device-level distinction. The combination of devices, platforms, and content at Millennials' disposal means marketers must navigate a multitude of paths to find the right ad opportunity. Figure 5 Millennials' Weekly Time Spent by Device and Age (Hrs:Mins) : :26 6:12 6:33 16:5 5:56 1:5 14:18 Traditional TV Connected TV Computer Smartphone Figure 6 Millennials Reached by Select Digital Devices & Channels % Phone 96% 79% Facebook 86% 7% Snapchat 39% 59% Tablet 58% 57% Instagram 53% Millennials are accustomed to choice and convenience in their media consumption, and there's no indication that will change as they get older. Using software to plan and deliver advertising across channels is the key to young viewers today, but may be the answer to all audiences tomorrow. Millennials are highly reachable through digital advertising, but marketers must be prepared for a wide array of device, channel, and content combinations. 6 TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 7

5 -12% Heavy TV Viewers Light TV Viewers Figure 7 Average TV Ratings by Genre -5% +2% PTV Opportunity Heavy TV viewers are highly reachable across a variety of programs. Consolidated, programmatic buying can find and execute the most efficient TV spots to reach this audience while controlling frequency. % -1% Figure 9 Average TV Ratings by Genre Digital Necessity TV's lightest viewers are scattered across programs in low concentrations and tune in for just a few minutes at a time. As this audience continues to move away from TV, marketers should shift to digital channels to achieve higher, more efficient on-target reach. -34% -37% -25% -33% -9% Drama Comedy Reality Sports News/Talk Drama Comedy Sports Reality News/Talk More of the Most Less of the Least Figure 8 Average Program Rating Figure 1 Average Program Rating % %.2 Ratings among the top TV quintile are even higher now than they were in the mid-2s, indicating that this dedicated group of viewers watches a greater variety of shows than it used to. Since high concentrations of the audience exist across programs and dayparts, marketers should pursue competitive pricing. However, marketers must also guard against frequency, as heavy TV viewers run a high risk of over-exposure. Programmatic TV uses software to swiftly weigh cost and reach at scale, allowing advertisers to secure the most efficient TV buys available. Viewers in the bottom TV quintile are increasingly difficult to reach through linear TV, with ratings down 57% since 27. While programmatic tools can help advertisers locate pockets of this audience on TV, the reality is that light TV viewers should closely resemble non-tv viewers in the eyes of advertisers. Digital channels, particularly mobile and social, can offer marketers higher reach among light TV viewers than linear TV. As linear viewing continues to consolidate in the top 2% of viewers, we may see a shift to digital baseplans across audiences. 8 TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 9

Bilingual Hispanics Figure 11 Average TV Program Rating by Genre -19% -15% Mobile Value TV ratings among bilingual Hispanics are modest compared to the average viewer.

6 Bilingual Hispanics Figure 11 Average TV Program Rating by Genre -19% -15% Mobile Value TV ratings among bilingual Hispanics are modest compared to the average viewer. However, smartphone usage is strikingly high among U.S. Hispanics, including bilinguals, offering marketers the opportunity to reach high concentrations of this audience through mobile sites and apps. -14% -12% +2% Conclusion Every year traditional TV plans are losing reach. Last year, the average show dropped roughly 15% of its millennial audience members between seasons. Whoever you're trying to reach, their habits are changing. Drama Comedy Reality News/Talk Sports Video on the Go Figure 12 Weekly Hours Spent Watching Digital Video BILINGUAL SPANISH DOMINANT ENGLISH DOMINANT Exactly how habits are changing and where viewers will show up tomorrow is different for every audience. It's up to marketers to track their target audience's behavior and plan ahead. Software and programmatic tools can help advertisers see across devices, channels, and content to monitor changes, understand shifting habits, and locate audiences wherever they go. U.S. Content International Content U.S. Hispanics spend 24% more time on phone apps and web per week than the average American, and 87% more time watching digital video on their phones.² Mobile video presents a particularly significant opportunity to reach bilingual and Spanish dominant Hispanics, who spend more time watching digitial video than their English dominant counterparts. 2 Nielsen, "Total Audience Report: Q1 216" 1 TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 11

Methodology Programming and ratings data, provided by Nielsen, comes from the fourth quarter of 27, 28,, and and reflects original airings of all broadcast and cable programs.

7 Methodology Programming and ratings data, provided by Nielsen, comes from the fourth quarter of 27, 28,, and and reflects original airings of all broadcast and cable programs. This report includes recurring programs and excludes specials. When measuring season to season rating changes, the analysis only considers programs that appeared in at least two consecutive seasons (27-28 or -). The playback period for ratings in this report is live +7 days, and audiences reflect Nielsen demographics and market breaks. Broadcast upfront programs are defined as programs on ABC, CBS, CW, FOX, and NBC that air once per week. Additional data sources include reports published by Nielsen, emarketer, and Yahoo/Ipsos. Graphs Figure 1 The distribution of programs rating point change between 27 and 28 and between and. Percentages indicate the share of programs falling into each group. Source: Nielsen Figure 2 Average ratings among African Americans 18+ for programs in select genres that aired in both and. Source: Nielsen Figure 3 Difference in aggregated ratings among African Americans 18+ for the top 5 programs by rating in 27 and. Source: Nielsen Figure 4 Average ratings among women and men for programs in select genres that aired in both and. Source: Nielsen Figure 5 Source: Nielsen, "Total Audience Report: Q1 216" Figure 6 Mobile Phone penetration by age, 216 (% of population), Facebook penetration by age, 216 (% of internet users); Snapchat penetration by age, 216 (% of smartphone users); Tablet penetration by age, 216 (% of population); Instagram penetration by age, 216 (% of population). Source: emarketer Figure 7 Average ratings among adults 18+ in the top TV quintile for programs in select genres that aired in both and. Source: Nielsen Figure 8 Average 27 and ratings among adults 18+ in the top TV quintile for consecutive programs across all genres. Source: Nielsen Figure 9 Average ratings among adults 18+ in the top bottom quintile for programs in select genres that aired in both and. Source: Nielsen Figure 1 Average 27 and ratings among adults 18+ in the bottom TV quintile for consecutive programs across all genres. Source: Nielsen Figure 11 Average ratings among English and Spanish speaking bilingual Hispanics 18+ for programs in select genres that aired in both and. Source: Nielsen Figure 12 Source: Yahoo, "US Hispanic Online Video Consumption Study" conducted by Ipsos, June TUBEMOGUL AUDIENCE PLANNING 13

8 TUBEMOGUL (NASDAQ: TUBE) IS AN ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE COMPANY FOR BRAND ADVERTISING. By reducing complexity, improving transparency and leveraging real-time data, our platform enables marketers to gain greater control of their global advertising spend. TubeMogul s platform streamlines the cross-screen buying process and enables brand marketers to plan, buy and measure reach, frequency and impact in a transparent and effective way across television, video, display, mobile, social and other brand advertising initiatives. Our independent, buy-side focus means we only serve brands and agencies and remain aligned with the incentives of our clients. TubeMogul was incorporated in 27 and is based in Emeryville, California with offices in New York, London, Sydney, Singapore, Toronto, Tokyo and across the United States. 216 TUBEMOGUL

TV + Google YouTube. Complementary in a Cross Media Campaign Strategy

TV + Google YouTube. Complementary in a Cross Media Campaign Strategy TV + Google YouTube Complementary in a Cross Media Campaign Strategy Executive Summary 1 Light TV viewers are not reached effectively on TV but they are watching online 2 3 4 Light TV viewers are valuable