Predicts 2004: U.S. Color Copier Market Is All Business

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1 Dataquest Predicts Predicts 2004: U.S. Color Copier Market Is All Business Abstract: Shipments of color multifunction products jumped more than 300 percent in the third quarter of 2003, compared with the year-earlier period. The strong growth in business color devices will continue into By Don Dixon Strategic Forecast Statements By year-end 2004, color copier shipments will deliver 57 percent growth over 2002 shipments. Graphic color copier shipments and their respective front ends will decline as much as 30 percent from 2002 levels by Users will transition to "business color" devices for more work flow and central reprographic department output. Publication Date: 17 December 2003

2 2 Predicts 2004: U.S. Color Copier Market Is All Business Color copier shipments in the second and third quarters of 2003 grew significantly when compared with the previous year. In fact, shipments grew 331 percent in the third quarter of 2003 compared with the same period last year and over 22 percent sequentially. End-user spending in the same period grew 211 percent, a complete turnaround from declining shipments and spending last year. Thestronggrowthinthesetwoquartersislargelyaresultoftwofactors: first, aggressively low prices on new business class products and secondly, the continual lowering of average selling prices of existing products in key segments by the major vendors. On the first point, Ricoh introduced two new products into the 1-to-10 pages per minute (ppm) segment (the Aficio 1224C and 1232C at 8 ppm and 10 ppm respectively), at $8,000 and $11,000, which restored life to the 1-to-10-ppm category. Canon also introduced the CLC 1110 (8.5-ppm color and 42-ppm monochrome), which also shipped well. In addition, Canon introduced the color imagerunner C3200 (32 ppm) at $12,000 suggested retail price, which is over 50 percent lower than the prices of products of similar speed. Next was the dramatic price actions last quarter by Canon, Ricoh, Xerox, Minolta and others, which have spurred additional investments in color copiers and have boosted shipments. Because of the lower average selling prices, spending was expected to remain flat to declining, but because of the surge in shipments in the past seven weeks, 2003 will return to growth in spending and will end the year in positive single digits. Gartner Dataquest is tracking a strong growth pattern in business color devices in the 31-to-40-ppm segment (caused primarily by the Canon color imagerunner C3200), which to date, has accounted for a 650 percent increase (for that segment) in shipments for the third quarter of 2003 when compared with the year-earlier period. Here, we will focus on this color copier growth in the United States over the past three quarters, and we will highlight the specific market forces that have necessitated a change in our forecast for 2003 and outlook for We will also reinforce the monochrome forecast, which is on track with the original forecast published earlier this year, but has been slightly impacted in recent weeks by the growth in the business color category. Prediction Color copier shipments will continue to grow sharply in Forecast Update Our original forecast for 2003 was just over 50,000 units, and our best-case scenario the last time we did the forecast was about 57,000 units. However, according to the latest numbers, along with indications from distributors, this market will surpass both expectations and will head toward 73,400 units. This is supported by the following evidence: Very strong placements in the 1-to-10-ppm segment caused by the Ricoh 1224/ Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

3 Very strong placements in the 31-to-40-ppm segment caused by the Canon color imagerunner C3200 Forty percent to 50 percent lower average selling prices in key segments, beginning in the second quarter Very strong performance expected in the fourth quarter (over 23,000 units) 2004 Outlook The outlook for 2004 will no doubt change as well. Our original forecast for 2004 was 55,163 units. But with 2003 delivering such strong performance over 57 percent stronger than we had anticipated we are now revising the 2004 number up to 88,077, a 20 percent increase based on the projected 2003 numbers. In April 2003, Gartner Dataquest published its original version of the color copier forecast, which predicted that the new business color copiers would impact the forecast and would result in the numbers trending significantly upward from their 2002 positions. Our forecast update in the middle of 2002 predicted that the most likely scenario would result in shipments of about 50,000 units. We argued that a significant improvement, such as a recovery in the U.S. economy in the second half of 2003 or more business color products being introduced at average selling prices that were 30 percent lower than the models introduced, would result in the best-case scenario of about 57,000 units (see "New Business Color Copier Models to Boost U.S. Shipment Forecast," HARD-WW-DP-0256). As it turns out, the U.S. economy did begin to show signs of recovery (according to leading economists) in the second half of Also, average selling prices have fallen to unprecedented levels, 30 percent to 50 percent lower in some segments. These factors, along with pent-up demand for color multifunction products (MFPs) in the distributed office, have boosted the trend beyond our best-case scenario. So far, the total for the first three quarters of 2003 is 50,398 units. The fourth quarter is showing signs of strong placements in the 31-to-40-ppm and 1-to-10-ppm categories, which are likely to produce shipments of about 23,000 units. This would bring our estimate for the whole year to about 73,398 units. The Resurrection of 1 to 10 At the end of last year, color copiers and MFPs in the 1-to-10-ppm segment were forecast for a slow and painful death, as all vendors except one (Ricoh) pulled out for higher, more productive segments. However, as we have witnessed, vendors (specifically Ricoh, with its sister brands, Savin, Gestetner and Lanier, as well as Canon), have pumped new life into this segment Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

4 4 Predicts 2004: U.S. Color Copier Market Is All Business In April 2003, Ricoh introduced the Aficio 1224C (8-ppm color and 24-ppm monochrome) and the Aficio 1232C (10-ppm color and 32-ppm monochrome) color MFPs, with a marketing message specifically targeted at the corresponding monochrome speed segments. These devices began shipping just as the U.S. economy was beginning to show signs of picking up, and at manufacturer's suggested retail prices of $8,000 and $11,000, respectively. Ricoh dealers and branches wasted little time in placing these new products, which found strong acceptance among small and midsize businesses (SMBs) that were at the end of their three- or five-year contracts with slower and more-expensive color devices. The new color units from Ricoh offered them color at comparable or slightly faster speeds for 30 percent less money. The success was felt across all of the Ricoh brands, including Savin, Gestetner and Lanier. In addition, Canon introduced the lower-cost 1110 series, which made a great entry-level graphics engine, and also paved the way for the new imagerunner C3200 (32-ppm color and monochrome), which was introduced in April at a $12,000 manufacturer's suggested retail price. Price Elasticity Boosts Shipments The 31-to-40-ppm color segment also met with success. While the Xerox 1632 and 2240, along with the Canon CLC 1140/1180, continued to ship well as prices were lowered to make them more competitive, so did the fairly new color imagerunner C3200 from Canon. The theme behind the boost in shipments overall is the lower acquisition price of the box. The Canon 3200, for example, has a manufacturer's suggested retail price of $12,000, compared with $17,000 for the Minolta CF3102, $25,000 for the Toshiba e-studio 310c and $30,000 for the Xerox Reduction in prices from the top performers in the space can be credited with much of the growth. Strategic Planning Assumption: Color copier shipments will deliver 57 percent growth in 2003, and the trend will continue in 2004 (0.8 probability). Action Recommendation for 2004 All color copier vendors, as well as prominent printer vendors, are preparing for a very strong 2004 in the color copier business. We recommend that vendors conduct more careful pricing analysis before introducing color copiers at prices that are too aggressive and not leave so much money on the table. While lower prices are definitely a motivator for enterprises entering the color copier market, it is not the only factor. The demand for color has been growing for quite some time; it is only logical that prices come down. However, vendors must monitor the rate of decline so as not to eliminate the revenue potential from the market Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

5 Gartner Dataquest believes that Canon is planning two new aggressively priced color MFPs in the second quarter of 2004, targeted at the universal MFP marketplace. Sharp has just announced its 26-ppm color IMAGER, and Toshiba has just announced two new units that will become available at the beginning of We are also tracking new product announcements from other vendors as well as pricing actions designed to move current inventory out of the warehouses. 5 Prediction The business color user will dominate the color copier market by 2005 While some of these units can be outfitted with a more robust color controller to produce near-graphic color output, the vast majority is targeted at the business color customer. Table 1 lists recently released products and the target market, with (color/monochrome) speed in parentheses: Table 1 Recently Released Color Copiers Product and Speed Target Market Introduction Date Aficio 1224C (8/24) Business color February 2003 Aficio 1232C (10/32 Business color February 2003 Xerox 3535 (35/35) Business/graphic February 2003 Canon CLC 1110 (8.5/42) Graphic color March 2003 Konica ColorFORCE 50 (50/50) Business/graphic April 2003 Production Canon C3200 (32/32) Business color April 2003 Xerox WorkCentre Pro 32 (16/32) Business color July 2003 Xerox WorkCentre Pro 40 (22/40) Business color July 2003 Panasonic DP-C401 (22/40) Business color July 2003 KyoceraMita KM-C850 (8/31) Business color November 2003 Sharp ARC260 (26/32) Business color November 2003 Toshiba 1135 (11/35) Business color November 2003 Toshiba 1145 (11/45) Business color November 2003 IKON CPP 8050 (50/50) Business/graphic December 2003 Production Minolta CF5001 (50/50) Business/graphic December 2003 Production Source: Gartner Dataquest (December 2003) 2003 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

6 6 Predicts 2004: U.S. Color Copier Market Is All Business Manyofthenewmodelsarerepresentativeofthelatesttrendincolor copiers. The strategy typically produces a machine with a lower color speed and a higher monochrome speed, coupled with an average selling price that is targeted at the monochrome speed segment, with a 10 percent to 15 percent premium for color. This is resonating with many enterprise buyers as they take advantage of the multifunctionality and fast monochrome speed. Many users have expressed satisfaction with the notion of replacing two devices perhaps an older slower color device as well as their segment 2, 3 or 4 monochrome copier with one. Gartner Dataquest calls this category of device the "universal MFP." Enterprises are targeting these new universal MFPs using a monochrome copier replacement strategy. While it is too early to speculate, we have observed early successes in the Japanese domestic market with this strategy. It is likely then that as this strategy takes hold in the United States, the traditional monochrome copier replacement will suffer as a result. Gartner Dataquest believes that this will become evident between the end of 2004 and the middle of The lower acquisition costs associated with these newer units have created some demand among the traditional monochrome target audience. In addition, it is expected that more dealers/distributors will be encouraged to make the investment in selling color MFPs, as customers who previously thought that color was too expensive can be enticed with the device consolidation. Gartner Dataquest research reveals that the trend for color copier usage is as follows: Color output is transitioning from quick-print and print-forpay establishments to the central reprographic department (CRD) and from the CRD into an enterprise's work flow. For the most part, only the larger jobs are finding their way into the CRD and the rest are staying in the workgroup. CRDs are now doing more in-sourcing of higher-volume color and will only outsource to a quick-print provider if the complexity is too much for them to handle. Strategic Planning Assumption: Graphic color copier shipments and their respective front ends will decline as much as 30 percent from 2002 levels by 2005 as users transition to "business color" devices for more work flow and central reprographic department output (0.8 probability). Action Recommendation for 2004 Ultimately, quick printers will be looking elsewhere to supplement the business lost from enterprises. They are looking to move up volume to digital presses (the commercial print market), to facilitate color variabledata output and other more-complex work flows. This is only seen in major markets at the moment, but is likely to grow as the prices for color digital presses decline Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

7 Gartner Dataquest believes that while the color copier market looks rosy for equipment buyers, most businesses will continue to think that color is a luxury and will not make the investment immediately for most of their enterprise output, regardless of the price. They would rather limit color use in their businesses when the output is an exterior-facing document, and will continue outsourcing color to the local print-for-pay when color fidelity is an issue. It is not foreseeable that most users will replace their monochrome copiers with color devices in the near term. Therefore, color shipments will continue to experience strong growth from small numbers, but not fast enough to displace monochrome in the near term. The following recommendations are offered to vendors: Vendors must design better solutions for enterprises that are now doing more color production in their workgroups, to help them to solve document-finishing pain points and increasingly complex work flows. Vendors that are trying to provide their own controllers, with limited success thus far, ought to consider negotiating with Electronics For Imaging to acquire a comprehensive line of controllers. Hence, this entire function can be outsourced if the numbers are right. With a single controller provider, users would deliver a more consistent controller strategy across all color platforms, which would help the servicing and local IT organizations to provide more efficient and cost-effective support. Key Issues What is the size of the output device market? What market forces are impacting hard-copy output volumes and vendor revenue? Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. 17 December 2003

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