Fibre broadband what will it take to make it happen?

Transcription

1 IET Appleton Lecture Fibre broadband what will it take to make it happen? Steve Unger, CTO, Ofcom 6 th February, 2013

2 What does history tell us? 1

3 Fibre technologies are not new 2

4 But copper is the success story of recent years 3

5 There are many more connections than there were 10 years ago Consumer take-up of data services (claimed) 80% 60% 40% Any broadband Fixed broadband Data service on mobile phone Mobile dongles 20% 0% Superfast broadband Dial up internet (as main method) Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey 4

6 There are more devices than there were 10 years ago Ownership of connected devices (claimed) 80% 79 Any computer* 60% Laptop Smartphone 40% 41 Desktop PC Tablet 20% 0% Netbook Smart TV Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey * PC, Laptop, Netbook or Tablet 5

7 We have seen growth in bandwidth-hungry applications at home Use of internet at home (selected activities) 60% 50% 50% UK adults 40% 30% 20% 19% 16% 35% 21% 30% 28% 10% 0% Social networking Streaming video Online gaming Catch-up TV 0% Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey 6

8 Consumers have increased their use of mobile services Activities that mobile phones are used for (selected activities) % UK adults 40% 30% 20% 42% 33% 29% 26% 25% 10% 10% 7% 6% 8% 0% Accessing internet 0% Social networking* Download apps Instant messaging Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey * Social networking use not recorded in

9 Leading to growth in fixed broadband usage Availability SFBB > 2 MB/s 86% 90% 58% 65% Mar-11 Jun-12 Average sync speed (MB/s) Household usage (GB / month) Active connections (millions) Total usage (petabytes / month) Usage Mar-11 Jun-12 Growth % % % % Source: Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2011 and

10 Does usage depend on line-speed? 80 ADSL2+ Data Usage Cable Data Usage Monthly Usage (GB) Number of Lines (000s) Sync speed of access line (MB/s) Package Speed (MB/s) Source: Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2012 Note: ADSL2+ data is shown for customers on unlimited broadband packages 9

11 Leading to substantial growth in mobile data Take-up of mobile devices Network usage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 Tablets End 2012 E-Readers Active SIMs (millions) Usage per SIM (GB / month) Total usage (petabytes / month) Total usage (% of fixed data) Mar-11 Jun-12 Growth <1% % % 2.9% 4.1% Dongles / laptops Date on phones Source: Ofcom technology tracker, Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2011 and

12 Where next? 11

13 A virtuous circle Services, Devices and Networks Networks Virtuous Circle Devices Services 12

14 A brief history Dial-up modems kbps ISDN 128 kbps ADSL < 8 Mbps ADSL 2+ < 24 Mbps VDSL < 80 Mbps 1990s 2000s 2010s Text-based content Basic graphics Always on, richer graphics, audio Video content, streaming Multimedia, multiple devices

15 Will Is there a bandwidth-hungry, a killer app for superfast killer broadband app? drive the next wave of infrastructure development... Ultra HD TV 4K

16 ...Or Lots of is killer it more apps likely to be the cumulative demands of many connected devices across the home?

17 Ownership of internet-enabled devices Household penetration (%) Laptop 52 Games console 44 Desktop PC Internet enabled STB Smartphone 32 Portable games console E-reader* Tablet Netbook Smart TV Source: Ofcom research, Quarter Base: Adults aged 16+ n = 2258 Note: IP-enabled devices include laptop, games console, desktop PC, smartphone, portable games console, internet enabled STB (Sky+, Sky+ HD, V+ and V+ HD set top boxes), e-reader, tablet, netbook, and smart TV. *E-reader take-up stated here is household while elsewhere in the report we state figures by individual take-up. 16

18 Number of different internet-enabled devices per household Own at least n no. of devices Own n no. of devices Own at least n no. of devices Proportion of households(%) None One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten n number of different devices Proportion of households (%) Source: Ofcom research, Quarter Base: Adults aged 16+ n = 2258 Note: IP-enabled devices include laptop, games console, desktop PC, smartphone, portable games console, internet enabled STB (Sky+, Sky+ HD, V+ and V+ HD set top boxes), e-reader, tablet, netbook, and smart TV. 17

19 Avoiding a mobile capacity crunch Current forecasts suggest mobile traffic might grow by two orders of magnitude. More spectrum is part of the answer, but a move to small cells is also key 18

20 Convergence of fixed and mobile network architectures Thousands of households Hundreds of households Tens of households Single household, multiple users Exchange-based Broadband FTTC FTTDP / FTTH Core Networks Increasing used of fibre backhaul Macro cells Micro cells Outdoor pico cells and WiFi Indoor femto cells / WiFi / Ethernet 19

21 Beyond the market the rationale for public funding? 20

22 Beyond the market the rationale for public funding? There is a role for public funding, targeted at the widespread availability of broadband infrastructure as a means of promoting economic growth, and avoiding a digital divide Cost (per home) Commercial Deployments Commercial willingness to invest Gap Funding Network cost Coverage Source: Campaign to Protect Rural England 21

23 Questions 22