Oyster-Based Performance Metrics for the London Overground Michael Frumin TfL London Rail and MIT 1
In Other Words Card ID Sequence Number DayKey Origin Tap In Destination Time Tap Out Time Subsystem ID Origin Code Destination Code Direction Timeband Tap In Time Tap Out Time 1166 63 1317 1365 1693 399 3 3 RMD GPO down Early 6:39 7:1 1166 65 1317 1693 1365 959 1 3 GPO RMD up Inter-Peak 15:59 16: 155 533 1317 169 139 661 7 3 BSY SRA down Inter-Peak 11:1 11: 155 533 1317 139 169 15 19 3 SRA BSY up Evening :5 :9 986 97 1317 9 177 566 599 63 HHY BSP up AM Peak 9:6 9:59 11139 1539 1317 9 169 1 63 HHY HDH up AM Peak 7: 7:1 98335 95 1317 1695 1697 8 5 63 HKC CMD up AM Peak 8: 8: 98335 97 1317 1697 1695 131 15 63 CMD HKC down PM Peak 17:11 17:3 981 13 1317 1698 1696 5 55 63 DLK HMN down AM Peak 9: 9:1 9859 3 1317 171 1689 36 59 63 FNY ACC up AM Peak 7:16 7:39 9859 5 1317 1689 171 1 15 63 ACC FNY down PM Peak 17: 17:3 9859 33 1317 1697 9 519 535 CMD HHY down AM Peak 8:39 8:55 9867 57 1317 1689 1698 36 79 63 ACC DLK down AM Peak 7:16 7:59 9867 57 1317 1698 1689 93 97 63 DLK ACC up Inter-Peak 15:3 16:1 15 538 1317 1365 1688 973 19 63 RMD WIJ down PM Peak 16:13 16:9 31938 6 1317 1689 1365 71 87 3 ACC RMD up AM Peak 7:51 8:7 17 66 1317 1365 133 9 3 RMD GUN down Early 6: 6:9 17 68 1317 133 1365 913 9 3 GUN RMD up Inter-Peak 15:13 15: 13667 196 1317 1688 1691 969 99 WIJ WHD down PM Peak 16:9 16:3 11591 53365 1317 9 1696 69 85 63 HHY HMN down AM Peak 7:9 8:5 + =?
London Rail Network 3
National Rail (incl. LO): Public Performance Measure (PPM) Weekly PPM Results 1.% 95.% 95.% 9.68% PPM 9.% 9 Target 93.31% 3 5 Network Rail TOC on TOC LUL PPM 9.% 85.% 8.% 75.% 15 1 TOC on Self 7.% 5 65.% 6.% Week 1 Week Week 3 Week Week 1 Delay Minutes Week Week 3 Week PPM PPM MAA PPM 95.% 9.% 93.% 9.% 91.% 9.% 89.% 89.8% 91.6% 91.71% 9.78% 89.% 9.3% 9.33% 9.97% 9.83% 9.7% 9.79% 9.% 93.81% 88.% 87.% 87.6% 86.% 85.% 8 85 86 87 88 89 81 811 81 813 91 9 93 9
Overground Oyster Data samples: weekday Oyster (Travelcard or PAYG) trips between any two London Overground Stations Sample From To Trips Between LO Stations Cards Deemed LO Trips Cards 1% 31 Mar 1 Jun.6M 17K 1.8M 38K 5% Panel Feb 18 Jul 35K 8K 5M 1K Path Type LO Start & End LO Start (End) but LU End (Start) LO 36,83 Included in analysis, should be included LO+LU 515 18,51 Excluded from analysis, should be included Interavailable 8,3 Interavailable? LU,97 LMR 1,593 Southern 1,86 Excluded from analysis, should be excluded 5
A Graphical Timetable: Stratford to Kentish Town West on the North London Line 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Caledonian Road & B Highbury & Islingto Canonbury Dalston Kingsland Hackney Central Homerton Hackney Wick Stratford Timetable KTW CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 6
Calculating Scheduled and Excess Journey Time 8 min 7
Waiting Times by Line by Timeband (wrt. Timetable)...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8 NLL Early NLL AM Peak NLL Inter-Peak NLL PM Peak NLL Evening NLL Late Peak Headway 6 6 7-15 Min GOB Early GOB AM Peak GOB Inter-Peak GOB PM Peak GOB Evening GOB Late 6 6 Min Percent of Total 6 WAT Early WAT AM Peak WAT Inter-Peak WAT PM Peak WAT Evening WAT Late 6 Min WLL Early WLL AM Peak WLL Inter-Peak WLL PM Peak WLL Evening WLL Late 6 6 Min...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8...6.8 Scheduled Waiting Time Headway 8
5 15 1 5 Daily Boardings (Hypothetical Right-Time Operations) 15 16 15 15 15 15 1 7 8 7 11 Boarding Location 5 7 9 6 15 CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 15 9 SRA-7:7 SRA-7:1 SRA-7: SRA-7:37 SRA-7:5 SRA-7:59 SRA-8:6 SRA-8: SRA-8:3 SRA-8:37 SRA-8:5 SRA-9:3 SRA-9:7 SRA-9: SRA-9:31 SRA-9:37 SRA-9:5 SRA-1:7 Daily Oyster Boardings
Validation: One AM Peak: 3 April, 8 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: 1:3 11: 11:3 1: Richmond Kew Gardens Gunnersbury South Acton Acton Central Willesden Junction Kensal Rise Brondesbury Park Brondesbury West Hampstead Finchley Road & Fro Hampstead Heath Gospel Oak Kentish Town West Camden Road Caledonian Road & B Highbury & Islingto Canonbury Dalston Kingsland Hackney Central Homerton Hackney Wick Stratford Timetable Oyster Exits Delay RMD KWG GUN SAT ACC WIJ KNR BSP BSY WHD FNY HDH GPO KTW CMD CIR HHY CNN DLK HKC HMN HKW SRA 6: 6:3 7: 7:3 8: 8:3 9: 9:3 1: 1:3 11: 11:3 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 1
6 5 3 1 NLL Week 6 5 3 1 11 78 78 68 68 58 Other 58 8 8 38 38 8 38 8 58 68 78 Date 8 38 8 58 68 78 8 6 5 3 1 EJT by Line (5% Sample) NLL Other 6 5 3 1 8 Average Weekly EJT (Minutes) Average Daily EJT (Minutes)
EJT by Timeband, North London Line (5% Sample) AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 Week 1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 Period Period Average EJT (Minutes) Weekly Average EJT (Minutes)
Reliability: Distributions and Buffer Time 1 NLL GOB 5-5 1 WAT WLL 5-5 Timeband 1 5-5 1 5-5 Late 13 Evening Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
EJT = f(ppm, Delay Minutes,?) Whole Network, AM Peak Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 1 1 3 1 - PPM 1 3 5 6 7 EJT (Minutes) 1 - PPM EJT 7 8 9 1 PPM 1 3 5 6 7 Whole Network 1 - PPM EJT 5 1 15 1 - PPM 1.5..5 3. 3.5. EJT (Minutes) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 85 9 95 PPM 1.5..5 3. 3.5.
Transfers: Problem or Opportunity? Or Both? Of trips starting at a station with only Overground services, roughly half end at a station with no Overground services 15
Path Choice: Ambiguity or Options? 16
ParallelInteravailable Services: Ambiguity or Options? 17
Ambiguity: Crowding and AccessEgressInterchange 18
So What? (Short Term) PPM & EJT? Excess Waiting Time Excess Journey Time (Weighted) Excess Journey Time (Unweighted) OXNR 19
So What? (Long Term)
Future Research Multimodal journey times, distributions, etc Assignment of delay to particular services Demand-side inference train and platform loadings Connect with SupplyControl decisions 1
Thanks! mfrumin@mit.edu
Appendices (for possible reference in Q&Adiscussion) 3
Oyster Data Card ID Sequence Number DayKey Origin Tap In Destination Time Tap Out Time Subsystem ID Origin Code Destination Code Direction Timeband Tap In Time Tap Out Time 1166 63 1317 1365 1693 399 3 3 RMD GPO down Early 6:39 7:1 1166 65 1317 1693 1365 959 1 3 GPO RMD up Inter-Peak 15:59 16: 155 533 1317 169 139 661 7 3 BSY SRA down Inter-Peak 11:1 11: 155 533 1317 139 169 15 19 3 SRA BSY up Evening :5 :9 986 97 1317 9 177 566 599 63 HHY BSP up AM Peak 9:6 9:59 11139 1539 1317 9 169 1 63 HHY HDH up AM Peak 7: 7:1 98335 95 1317 1695 1697 8 5 63 HKC CMD up AM Peak 8: 8: 98335 97 1317 1697 1695 131 15 63 CMD HKC down PM Peak 17:11 17:3 981 13 1317 1698 1696 5 55 63 DLK HMN down AM Peak 9: 9:1 9859 3 1317 171 1689 36 59 63 FNY ACC up AM Peak 7:16 7:39 9859 5 1317 1689 171 1 15 63 ACC FNY down PM Peak 17: 17:3 9859 33 1317 1697 9 519 535 CMD HHY down AM Peak 8:39 8:55 9867 57 1317 1689 1698 36 79 63 ACC DLK down AM Peak 7:16 7:59 9867 57 1317 1698 1689 93 97 63 DLK ACC up Inter-Peak 15:3 16:1 15 538 1317 1365 1688 973 19 63 RMD WIJ down PM Peak 16:13 16:9 31938 6 1317 1689 1365 71 87 3 ACC RMD up AM Peak 7:51 8:7 17 66 1317 1365 133 9 3 RMD GUN down Early 6: 6:9 17 68 1317 133 1365 913 9 3 GUN RMD up Inter-Peak 15:13 15: 13667 196 1317 1688 1691 969 99 WIJ WHD down PM Peak 16:9 16:3 11591 53365 1317 9 1696 69 85 63 HHY HMN down AM Peak 7:9 8:5 1 % Sample for Detailed Analysis:.6 M Trips 17 K People (cards) 5 Business Days (31 March 1 June) 5% Sample for Aggregate Analysis: 35 K Trips 8 K People (cards) 116 Business Days ( February 18 June)
Exploratory Analysis Weekday Overground Oyster Trips by Minute Distribution of Journey Times 5 6 8 6: 9: 1: 15: 18: 1: : 6 8 Time of Day Oyster Entries per Minute Cumulative Fraction of Trips Observed Journey Time Scheduled Journey Time Scheduled Travel Time....6.8 1. Journey Time Weekday Overground Oyster Trips by Line Weekday Top 5 Overground Oyster OD Pairs 6 5 3 1 NLL TRANSFER WAT GOB WLL Line Oyster Trips per Day DLK->SRA HHY->SRA SRA->HHY SRA->DLK HKC->SRA CMD->SRA SRA->CMD SRA->HKC HKC->CMD DLK->CMD CMD->DLK CMD->HKC QPW->EUS HMN->SRA EUS->QPW SRA->HMN CLJ->WIJ KNL->EUS HMN->HHY WIJ->CLJ HMN->CMD RMD->ACC HDH->SRA ACC->RMD STO->BKG 5 1 15 1.% 8.%.% 56.% Oyster TripsDay %.6% 1.1% 1.7%
London Underground: Journey Time Metric (JTM) AEI: AccessEgressInterchange L&E: Lifts & Elevators 6
Alighting Before or At Camden Alighting Before or At Camden 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Timetable Entries KTW CMD Caledonian Road & B CIR Highbury & Islingto HHY Canonbury CNN Dalston Kingsland DLK Hackney Central HKC Homerton HMN Hackney Wick HKW Stratford SRA 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 7
Alighting After Camden Alighting After Camden 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Kentish Town West Camden Road Timetable Entries KTW CMD Caledonian Road & B CIR Highbury & Islingto HHY Canonbury CNN Dalston Kingsland DLK Hackney Central HKC Homerton HMN Hackney Wick HKW Stratford SRA 6: 6:15 6:3 6:5 7: 7:15 7:3 7:5 8: 8:15 8:3 8:5 9: 9:15 9:3 9:5 1: Time (Hours past Midnight) 8
68 78 Daily EJT by Line (5% Sample) Date 9 8 58 38 8 78 8 38 8 58 68 78 8 38 8 58 68 6 - - 6 - - NLL GOB WLL WAT 6 - - 68 78 78 TRANSFER (all) 6 - - 58 8 38 8 8 38 8 58 68 78 8 38 8 58 68 Average Daily Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
58 68 Daily EJT by Line (1% Sample) Date 3 58 8 68 8 58 58 68 8 58 58 6 - - 6 - - NLL GOB WLL WAT 6 - - 68 58 TRANSFER (all) 6 - - 58 8 8 58 58 68 8 58 58 68 Average Daily Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
168 178 Weekly EJT by Line (5% Sample) Week 31 18 158 138 18 178 18 138 18 158 168 178 18 138 18 158 168 NLL GOB - WLL - WAT - 178 TRANSFER (all) - 158 168 18 138 18 18 138 18 158 168 178 18 138 18 158 168 178 Average Weekly Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
158 168 Weekly EJT by Line (1% Sample) Week 3 158 118 118 158 158 168 118 158 158 168 - - NLL GOB WLL WAT - 168 TRANSFER (all) - 158 158 118 118 158 158 168 118 158 158 168 Average Weekly Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
Evening Late Timeband 33 Inter-Peak PM Peak AM Peak Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early - - - - NLL GOB WLL WAT - - Late Inter-Peak Evening PM Peak AM Peak EJT by Line by Timeband (5% Sample) TRANSFER (all) - - Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late Early Average Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
Period EJT by Timeband, North London Line (5%) Period 3 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 3 1 3 1 Early AM Peak Inter-Peak PM Peak Evening Late 3 1 3 1 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 Average Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
1 Early AM Peak 5-5 1 PM Peak Evening 5-5 Period Inter-Peak 1 5-5 35 8 81 8 83 713 71 Reliability: North London Line Late 1 5-5 71 713 81 8 83 8 71 713 81 8 83 8 Excess Journey Time (Minutes)
Linear Models for EJT on the North London Line AM Peak PM Peak Coefficient Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) Estimate Pr(> t ) (Intercept) 1.83. 1.3. 1.75. 1.753. Booked - on time.1..68. Trains 1 - min late..9..1.78 Trains 5-9 min late.119..77.11 Trains 1-19 min late -.6.765.97.6 Trains + min late.161.396.35. Trains terminated before destination Trains started ahead of origin Simple Model Complex Model Simple Model Complex Model.11.89.95.98.71.79.119.15 Full cancellations.66..51.33 Total Delay Minutes.1..11..1..1. Adjusted R.773.83.88.87 36