What Impact Will Over-the-Top Video Have on My Bottom Line March 27, 2018 Doug Eidahl, VP Legal & Regulatory 2211 N. Minnesota St. Mitchell, SD 57301
The Changing CATV-Video Market 2
Recent Losses - Largest CATV Providers 2Q 2017 3Q 2017 2017 Change Comcast 22,516,000 22,390,000-126,000-0.60% DirecTV 20,856,000 20,605,000-251,000-1.20% Charter 17,071,000 16,982,000-89,000-0.50% Dish 11,892,000 11,668,000-224,000-1.90% AT&T 4,666,000 4,648,000-18,000-0.40%
Cable Cord Cutting in 2017 1.5M households cut the cord in 2017 (2.7%) Leichtman Research Group o 2013 105K o 2014 125K o 2015 385K o 2016 795K (1%) Without OTT gains, CATV sub loss were 1.9M 2016; 3.1M - 2017 2.3 million households eliminated CATV service in last 2 years Numbers show cord cutting is clearly accelerating Also cord shaving going to skinny bundles w OTT
CATV Subs & Revenue Largest 95% of CATV market 92.2M subs o CATV 48.1M o Satellite 31.5M o Telco IPTV 9.2M Biggest sector losses o Satellite 1.55M (DirecTV 554K) o Telco IPTV 885K (AT&T U-verse 624) o CATV 660K (Charter 239K) Pay TV revenue peaked at $103B in 2013 - est. to be $91B 2020 Digital TV
CATV Rate Increases CATV programing 9% average increase per year Retransmission fees 2018-2020 200%-300% increase Seen $10-$14 rate increases from many rural CATV systems in early 2018 Big cable also passed on huge retransmission fee increases These big rate increases along with many new OTT video options will accelerate cord cutting this year and into the future
Current Status CATV Video Services Video has been a key part of the revenue pie for a long time, but few providers are making money. Content negotiations are driving prices up, and over-the-top (OTT) is ushering in a new wave of cord cutting. Retransmission costs per subscriber for 37 surveyed video providers across the U.S. (courtesy Alliance Communications) 7
OTT Video Growth
OTT BB Delivered Video Growth OTT video subscriber growth in 2016 was 1.1M 2017 growth was 1.6M lead by: o Sling TV o DirecTV Now 711K with 2.2M total subs 888K with 1.2 total subs Top Internet BB Video Providers 3.4M subs 62% of homes now watch OTT content at least occasionally (Nielsen) OTT Revs $2B in 2010 and est. to be $10B in 2020 (Digital TV) Showing strong growth that will continue
OTT Device Trends -Roku Leads 40 million Americans used a Roku device at least once a month in 2017 Roku expected to represent 23% of connected OTT users this year Plans to become a public company Google Chromecast and Amazon Fire make up 22% and 21% respectively TV Devices % of Market 34% 21% 23% 22% Roku Chromecast Amazon Fire Other Devices 10
Other Market Facts Streaming devices are second to using a smart TV or game console (like Xbox) Significant growth in Smart TVs Apple TV in last place at 13% Due to its higher price 11
OTT Channels Customers Would Choose if They Could? Consumers are willing to pay $38/mo. for their ideal line-up of channels, which consists of 17 channels, on average 12 http://variety.com/2015/digital/news/a-la-carte-these-are-the-tv-channels-people-would-actually-pay-for-1201520900/
OTT Subscriber Usage Top 3 SVOD are Netflix, Amazon and Hulu OTT streaming hours reached 12.6B in 2017-100% more than 2016 Conviva Study Total plays rose 74% over 2016 and concurrent connections more than 100% 42% of adults won t spend over $20 per month on streaming subscriptions o 39% spend $9-$14 o 14% more than $25 o Cord cutters have 3 services, but only use 2 regularly 70% of SVOD subs also have CATV service
Competitive Shifts in OTT Three kinds of consolidation happening in the industry 1) Legacy content providers teaming up to cut costs and gain bargaining power with advertisers and distribution partners Example- combination of CBS and Viacom 2) Distribution buying content Example- AT&T acquisition of Time Warner 3) Most disruptive consolidation- tech giants buying up content companies Facebook, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft might be acquiring video content assets
Key OTT Video Players SAVE MONEY Sling TV is live TV you love, only better. Start watching your favorite shows, sports, movies and more at an industry-leading price of just $20 a month. Page 15
Netflix 118 million global subscribers o 8.3M added in 2017 (2M in US) o 4 th Qtr 2017 revenue $3.29B o Increased rates from $9.99 to $10.99 (2 streams) Recently increased its marketing budget to $2B, up 56% from $1.3B in 2017 Original content budget is $7B compared to: Amazon $4.5B Hulu $2.5B HBO $2.5B Trying to get word out beyond subscribers by putting more effort into tis original shows
Amazon Prime 26M used Prime in 2017 Raised price of Prime this year from $10.99 to $12.99 Rumored to be offering free skinny bundle of TV channels to Prime members in 2018 Feels like bundle is free - it is under $99 prime membership Very disruptive to other MVPD services Shown willingness to lose money to take market share Amazon Web services jumped 47% in last year s fourth quarter to $3.5 billion (twice growth of whole company)
Hulu 7 million subs Grew more than 40% in 2017 Only operates in the US compared to Netflix being global 75,000 episodes available to customers This is double the amount of any other streaming device
Disney Creating new unit to start a D2C streaming service 2019 ESPN D2C in 2018 at $4.99 (lost 700K subs in 2017) Will cancel its agreement with Netflix in 2019 to launch its own D2C Also has $52.4B bid to buy assets from Fox Plans on integrating both content and distribution Will gain majority control in Hulu This will start them off with 13 million subscribers
AT&T DirecTV Now DirectTV Now streaming Grew 368,000 subs 4 Qtr 2017 1.2M Total Coming out with new streaming device, similar to a Roku, that plugs into the TV Windstream plans to offer AT&T s service to all its subscribers under its Kinetic Broadband Hopes it will help scale its video and Internet business
CBS 5 million current OTT subscribers Expected to exceed 8 million by 2020 CEO states its OTT services attract the next generation of viewers - which is key Average age of its OTT viewers is 20 years younger than those on broadcast and cable Also joined Amazon Prime Offered CBS service as an additional $9.99/month for Prime members
CATV Services Future
CATV Programing Limitations Current video systems limited in downgrading packages - reducing subs o Most rural video providers get programing from NCTC o NCTC master agreements limit your bundle options o Including attempts to launch new skinnier bundles on current systems o No one size fits all skinny bundle for current systems will need to look at your current line up to determine your options within contracts o Lifeline bundle exceptions to 10-15% subs (broadcast, shopping, C- SPAN, religious) lifeline may be skinny bundle option Programmers are their own worst enemy their greed and technology are forcing subs to OTT/Skinny Bundles
What Are We Selling Video or BB? We are selling predominantly BB network services Video is secondary or even a loss leader (cash v. paper loss) Also other value added services Managed WiFi Caller Id on TV Helps drive higher ARPU Key retention factor, especially those with CATV competition Page 24
OTT Trend Observations Pay TV sub loss is growing, but CATV is NOT dead More cord shaving than cord cutting occurring - subs downsize and replace larger packages with skinny bundles - supplement with OTT Subs want to pay less but can t part with better pay TV content, guide, features want to drop most expensive channels (sports) Reduction of channels from existing packages is slow, but growing o RLECs dropped Viacom (60) and AMC (100) o Comcast dropped some from Basic and moved them up into Digital Tiers o Verizon, Comcast, Charter - trend of others offering skinny bundles, with limited number of channels Page 25
Rural CATV Observations Rural CATV issues 1. Flat growth with some churn percentage 2. Contractual carriage/tier limitations 3. New channel rollout commitments 4. Growing and changing sub viewing choices for time shifted content at lower price 5. Escalating fees for retransmission consent 6. Growing diversity in subscriber devices The major constants for rural CATV 1. 20-30% higher programing costs 2. Video services drive Broadband adoption 3. Those subscribing to ILEC video tend to stay 4. Cord cutting/shaving is less in rural markets with fewer OTT options and inability to get off air channels via antenna 5. Need to consider your own OTT services if agreements allow Page 26
Questions?