2005 LΞD2Light December 2005
Contents Introduction HB-LED general data Global HB-LED market analysis Nitride-based LEDs market analysis White/blue GaN LED Performance and price roadmap 2 substrates volumes forecasts for GaNbased LEDs 2001-2007 Cree strategy and evolution Companies facts Chips scribing & dicing Estimation of different GaN-LED cost breakdown General illumination market Worldwide estimation of generated lumens Forecast for LEDs in general illumination 2007-2020 Total 2 equivalent wafers volume for GaN HB-LEDs Conclusions on HB-LED business for illumination 2005 2 Car Lighting Market Synthesis Front lighting LEDs-based Rear lighting LEDs-based Interior lighting LEDs-based Technologies LEDs and HBLEDs Price, performances and SWOT analysis Applications External lighting Front lighting Adaptive Front lighting System (AFS) Rear Lighting Interior lighting Market Sales forecasts for lighting 2003 2009 (front, rear and interior lighting) Conclusions Annexes GaN material 2 ASP comparison Bulk / free-standing GaN wafers specifications comparison GaN Epiwafer manufacturers comparison GaN R&D research programs and founding
Introduction Blue/White HB-LEDs are now at a full production level and are targeting markets in the field of automotive, IT, and general lightning and illumination. Over the last 5 years, the LEDs market has evolved exhibiting growth rate as high as 58% a year. The most important potential market will be the general lightning, for which the replacement of conventional lamps with white LEDs would bring energy benefits of up to $100B by 2025, saving up to 120 Giga-Watts of electricity annually in the US alone. The nitride-based HB-LEDs market is forecasted to reach $3B in 2006. 2005 3
2005 HB-LED: General Data
HB-LED market breakdown Nitride-based LEDs represented 68% HBLED 2002 market breakdown in B$ 0.5 28 % AlGaInP (Yellow-red) 68 % 4 % AlGaAs (Red) InGaN (Blue, green, white) 1.2 0.1 2002 total market: 1.8 B$ GaN sector was 51% CAGR over the last 4 years 2005 5 HB-LEDs Status Sources: Strategies Unlimited
Nitride-based LED market segmentation Conventional nitride LED High Brightness LED Ultra-high brightness white LED Specifications Applicative markets ASP 350x350 µm die 30 ma, 3.5 V supply < 200 mw power External QE~20% 20 lm/w 1 to 3 lm generated Typical epoxy housing Mobile-phones keypad lightning Mobile-phones backlighting Signs Up to 2x2 mm² die 350 ma, 3.5 V supply Up to 1 Watt power External QE > 30% > 30 lm/w 5 to 30 lm generated Specific packaging Screens backlighting Automotive dashboard backlighting Automotive: front headlamps Large displays Up to 5x5 mm² die > 50A/cm² up to 5 watt power External QE > 30% > 50 lm/w > 100 lm generated CRI ~ 80 Specific packaging Illumination 0.10 $ / part 0.8 to 2$ / part will be marketed from 2007 30$/klm 2005 6 HB-LEDs Status
Intellectual property relationships between LED companies Cree Cree Lumileds Lumileds Citizen Citizen Electronics Electronics Patent license Laser collaboration Cross-license Cross-license Manufacturing license for white LEDs Rohm Rohm Nichia Nichia Manufacturing license for white LEDs Cross-license for white LEDs White LED license Patent agreement Osram Osram Toyoda Toyoda Gosei Gosei White LED collaboration Toshiba Toshiba Source: Compound Semiconductors Magazine 2005 7 HB-LEDs Status
Nichia facts More than 150 mono-wafer MOCVD epi-reactor homemade for GaN-based LEDs production JV with Sony to co-develop 405 nm blue-violet laser diodes for Blu-ray disk. Nichia is testing bulk GaN substrates from Sumitomo in order to focus on 100 mw LD for data writing on DVD Nichia is selling their laser diodes for up to $911 to the various next generation DVD makers (Sources: Nikkei Net, 10/2004) LD production yield in the range of 10% to 20% Blue spectrum LD production will start spring 2004 with a capacity of 400,000 to 600,000 units at the end of 2004 and up to 3 million chips / year by 2005. 2005 8 HB-LEDs Status
Trends in High Power LEDs Lumileds approach: Reflecting contacts and flip-chip mounting Osram: Substrate removal by laser lift-off (LLO) Thin film GaN: InGaN on sapphire. Extraction efficient ~ 75%. Quantum efficiency (QE)~38% Nichia approach: Backside surface texturing Facts: Transmittance of a conventional Ni-Au p- contact electrode is only 40% Solution: Patterned sapphire substrate + meshed electrodes: 2005 9 HB-LEDs Status
2005 General illumination market
worldwide estimation of generated lumens (lm.hr/year) and LED According to OIDA, US consumption was in the range of 26,500 Tlm.hr in 2000. We consider (DoE source 2003) that worldwide consumption is in the range of US x 4 = 106,000 Tlm.hr/year in 2000 Growth rate is in the range of 1.2 %/year 2 cases for LED market penetration: Base case: Low level of performances, lower price, low market penetration rate -> more LEDs in a single lamp Technology breakthrough case: High performances LEDs, controlled price, high market penetration rate -> less LEDs in a single lamp 2005 11 Illumination market
Wafers needs for GaN-based LEDs (2 equivalent wafers, million units) 40 35 30 25 2" (Eq.) wafers volume for GaN-based LED production in million units Illumination (case 1) Illumination (case 2) Opto (apart illumination) Case 1: base-case multiple-leds lamp 20 Case 2: Techno breakthrough single-led lamp 15 10 5 0 Higher growth rate due to automotive and LCD TV market penetration Market saturation: all potential applications targeted 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2005 12 Illumination market
2005 Car Lighting market
Front lighting: synthesis HBLEDs have large market opportunities for front lighting As the HBLEDs performance will increase, less chips will be necessary (less than 15 should be necessary in 2009 for all functions) The cost objective for auto (10$/klm) will be reached in 2010 for a wide diffusion of HBLEDs in front lighting However, HBLEDs should be implemented before this date (around 2007) on high-end cars In 2009, HBLED market should reach $90M But today, HID (High Intensity Discharge or Xenon) have been available for over 12 years, but halogen lights are still fitted to around 90% of all sold new cars. Design and safety are strong market drivers for LEDs European regulation needs to be updated for LEDs integration 2005 14 Car Lighting - synthesis
Lighting: LEDs market synthesis HBLEDs for front light will gain increasing market share over conventional LEDs for the interior 2003-2009 LEDs market for cars $900 $800 $700 CAGR 2003-2009 for internal LEDs: 5% $600 $millions $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 2003 1 2009 2 Total INTERNAL ligth car market Total EXTERNAL ligth car market CAGR 2003-2009 for external red/amber LEDs: 21% CAGR 2003-2009 for external white HBLEDs: 72% 2005 15 Car Lighting - synthesis
Number of lumens per type of light Source: Visteon 2005 16 Car Lighting - Technologies
LED front lighting system Source: Hella 2005 17 Car front lighting
GaN crystal growth 2005 GaN crystal growth
Gallium status Estimated crude gallium production was 81 t in 2001. Principal world producers were China, Germany, Japan, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine France (GEO Gallium) was the largest producer of refined gallium using gallium produced in Germany as feed material. Japan and the United States also refined gallium. Price: normal level of $500 to $600 per kilogram for 99.9999%-pure material but can vary with telecommunication business (Due to GaAs consumption that represents more than 90% of the total production) Numerous agreements have been signed between Gallium users (Sumitomo, Furukawa, Hitachi, Filtronic, ) and Gallium producers to secure a reliable Ga source. 2005 19 GaN crystal growth
Worldwide GaN R&D research programs 2005 R&D research programs
GaN EC funded Projects R&D Projects EURONIM DENIS ISCE-MOCVD Start / End Date 2001-03-01/2004-02-29 2002-04-01/2005-03-31 2000-02-01/2003-01-31 Project Cost 4.87 million 2.08 million 2.28 million Project Funding 2.21 million 1.55 million 1.53 million Partners Aim Thales S.A. CRHEA IQE (Europe) Limited DaimlerChrysler Ag Swiss Federal Institute Of Technology Lausanne Research Institute For Technical Physics And Materials Science Novasic S.A. Osram-opto Semiconductors GmbH Picogiga S.A. Four types of industrial products will be developed: epi ready SiC wafers, GaN on sapphire or SiC wafers for re-growth of active structures, GaN wafers, epi wafers with structures upon customer request. Advanced devices (HEMTs, laser diodes) will be obtained to assess the material quality. Acreo Ab Unipress Okmetic Oy Univ. of Bremen Linkoeping University Osram-opto Semiconductors Gmbh The project aims to develop a growth technique suitable for the production of GaN wafers. Material quality will be evaluated using a number of device demonstrators, a UV LED, a high power HEMT and a violet laser diode. Aixtron AG TU Berlin Iqe (Europe) Limited J. Kepler Univ. Linz Thales S.A. Philips Analytical NV Sentech Instruments GmbH Univ. Masaryk In Brno The project focus on in situ monitoring of the MOCVD process for the two material systems: ternary and quaternary {al, ga, in} -{as, p sb} on gallium nitride (GAN) and related materials 2005 21 R&D research programs