User Guide for the Early Countermeasure Model EmerSim of RODOS PRTY 6.0L Irmgard Hasemann, Claudia Landman, Jürgen Päsler-Sauer STATUS: 23. November 2007 RODOS Version: PRTY 6.0L Contents USER GUIDE FOR THE EARLY COUNTERMEASURE MODEL EMERSIM OF RODOS PV6FINAL 1 1 Overview 3 1.1 Brief description of the RODOS modelling of early countermeasures 3 1.1.1 Tasks of the model EmerSim 3 1.1.2 EmerSim Interval 4 1.2 Input 5 1.3 Output 8 1.4 References 11 2 Starting an EmerSim run in the interactive mode 12 2.1 Before starting the run 12 2.1.1 Selection of results from ADM run 12 2.1.2 Consideration of countermeasure input 12 2.2 Starting the run 12 2.2.1 Overview 12 2.2.2 Start of interactive manager 12 2.2.3 Selection of run option 13 2.2.4 Selection of the RODOS ADM run on which the EmerSim run shall base on 13 2.2.5 Start of EmerSim run without or with static initialisation 13 2.2.6 Messages resulting from missing load lists during the different start phases, and corresponding user actions 15 3 Static Initialisation Windows for EmerSim 16 3.1 Overview 16 3.2 Starting and ending the static EmerSim initialisation 16 3.2.1 Starting the static initialisation 16 3.2.2 Ending the static initialisation 17 3.3 (EmerSim-1.0) Startup-window for static early countermeasure items 17 3.4 Determination of potential areas 18 3.4.1 (Emersim-3.0) Areas: Input mode 18 3.4.2 (Emersim-3.21) Area determination with intervention levels - Sector/Zone Option 18 3.4.3 (Emersim-3.31 and subwindows) Area determination with graphics input 19 3.5 Action selection and timing for selected actions 22 3.5.1 (Emersim-4.0) Action selection 22 3.5.2 Timing for selected actions 23 3.5.2.1 (EmerSim-5.1) Timing for <sheltering only> 25 3.5.2.2 (EmerSim-5.2) Timing for <evacuation only> 26-1 -
3.5.2.3 (EmerSim-5.12) Timing for <sheltering + evacuation> 28 3.5.2.4 (EmerSim-5.3) Timing for <stable iodine only> 32 4 Dynamic Intervention Level Window (C/M-IL) for EmerSim 34 5 EmerSim results accessible with the RODOS Graphics 36 5.1 Overview 36 5.2 Preparing EmerSim results for graphical display 37 5.3 [Potential Action Areas] Areas potentially affected by early countermeasures 37 5.3.1 [Areas] The grid elements affected 37 5.3.2 [Day of exceeding IL] Time point when the intervention level was exceeded 38 5.4 [Groundshine] Development of ground level gamma dose with time 38 5.5 [Organ Doses] Individual organ doses without and with actions 39 5.6 [Population] 40 5.7 [Spectra] Dose frequency distributions 40 5.8 [Tables] Tables with countermeasure definitions and selected consequences 41 6 Trouble shooting 42 6.1 General remarks 42 6.2 EmerSim ends normally, but results look strange: Problem localisation 42 6.3 Abnormal termination from fatal error caused by user input 44 6.4 Location of countermeasure definition protocol, EmerSim run protocol, and consequence table on disk 44 7 Example runs 45 Document History 46-2 -
1 Overview 1.1 Brief description of the RODOS modelling of early countermeasures 1.1.1 Tasks and performance of the model EmerSim An early countermeasure scenario in RODOS consists of combinations of the three single actions sheltering, evacuation, and administration of stable iodine, carried out in different areas and time intervals. The early countermeasures model of RODOS, EMERSIM, has three tasks: - The assessment of potential (that is, without the consideration of countermeasures) "open air" and "normal living" radiation doses on the whole calculation grid. - The determination of the areas and numbers of individuals potentially affected by the three early countermeasures mentioned above. - The assessment of radiation doses with simulation of the effects of early countermeasures in the potential action areas for those actions the user wants to consider. The early countermeasure simulation uses results from any of the near range atmospheric dispersion and deposition models (nearadm) of RODOS that describe - in each cell of the calculation grid - the spatial and temporal development of the radiological situation after an accidental release in the form of potential dose histories. These dose histories are generated by the nearadm in each cell of the calculation grid for a so called EmerSim-Interval (see Chapter 1.1.2) covering the last 24 hours or less of the dispersion calculation episode. Early countermeasures will only be simulated for this limited time period. In such modelling approach, a dose that an individual has received prior the EmerSim-Interval represents a dose pedestal that can no longer be mitigated by one of the actions, but does contribute to the overall dose. With the pedestal doses, EmerSim determines as additional information the areas where an intervention level has been exceeded at some time during the release, thus identifying all potential areas where early countermeasures might have been initiated in the past. For longer release scenarios, the described concept forces the user to consider exactly which scenario period of time shall be investigated in detail and define the timing for EmerSim accordingly. To calculate the dose reduction due to normal living behaviour of the population and to the effects of the early countermeasures, the potential "open air" dose histories are modified by factors depending on location and time, for example shielding factors (see below). Dose calculation in case of sheltering - 3 -
1.1.2 EmerSim Interval Until beginning and upon completion of sheltering, normal living of the population is assumed. The dose reduction during sheltering is simulated by using building type specific shielding factors for external cloud and ground gamma radiation. The shielding factors are defined as average values for each grid cell and are derived from the building types in that cell as contained in the RODOS data base. Similar shielding factors are applied for normal residence periods. Dose calculation in case of evacuation Before the start and during the ride out of the evacuation area, radiation exposure at the starting point is assumed for all evacuees. During the absence from the evacuation area, it is assumed that the evacuated persons are not exposed to any more accident-related radiation. After having returned, normal living is assumed. Hint: The user should assess the duration of the evacuation ride considering that the region with high exposure can be left during that time. Dose calculation in case of administration of stable iodine The intake of stable iodine causes a 100 % blocking of the thyroid against radioactive iodine after 15 minutes. Some dose reduction will still be achieved if stable iodine is applied within some hours after the inhalation of radioactive iodine, for example, 50 % for an intake delay of 4 hours after one single inhalation event. The time dependence of the reduction factor is modelled by an exponential function. In RODOS it is assumed that the intake of the stable iodine takes place simultaneously in the entire potential iodine tablets area. Prolonged inhalation is modelled by summing up the average contributions from each ADM time step. Note on relocation: Relocation areas are also determined in EmerSim because of the possible need for fast emergency management there. The intervention criteria in the early countermeasures model correspond to German modelling. Intervention criteria for International modelling can be specified only in the late countermeasures model of RODOS. A calculation episode in RODOS can cover in principle more than one month. However, on the one hand, early countermeasures like sheltering can be maintained for no longer than about a day in a given area. On the other hand, in case of an ongoing accident the time of interest is most probably close to the "now time", and there seems little sense in simulating in detail over so many days sequences of early countermeasures. In additiona, Numerical Weather Prediction data in case of a real event are limited to the nearest future, and accurate information about the source term might be restricted to several hours into the future only. - 4 -
On these grounds it was decided to carry out detailed calculations with the early countermeasure model EmerSim of RODOS only for a limited time period of 24 hours or shorter. This time period is called EmerSim-Interval and is determined by the time step length and the episode duration and of the underlying near range atmospheric dispersion and deposition model (ADM) calculations as follows. For an ADM time step length of 10 Minutes, the maximum duration of the EmerSim-interval is 8 hours; for an ADM time step length of 30 Minutes or 60 minutes, respectively, it is 24 hours. If the ADM episode duration is less or equal the maximum duration of the EmerSim-interval for the chosen ADM time step length, the EmerSim-interval is identical with the ADM episode. For an ADM episode duration exceeding the maximum duration of the EmerSim-interval, the EmerSim-interval will cover the last 8 (for 10 minutes ADM-time steps) or 24 hours (for half hour or hour ADM time steps) of the calculation episode, that is, it starts 8 or 24 hours before the end of the calculation episode. 1.2 Input The early countermeasures which can be considered in EmerSim are sheltering, evacuation, and the distribution of stable iodine tablets. In addition, EmerSim allows assessing relocation areas, because of the potential need for fast emergency management there. The user can tailor a countermeasure scenario with the Initialisation windows of RODOS. From RODOS PV6.0 Patch 07 onwards, there are several static and one dynamic initialisation window. Run data via the static windows must be given by the user before EmerSim starts. The static windows have to be opened actively by the user by pressing the button [Initialisation] in the (Start-Dialog) window, see Chapter 2.2.5. Run data via the dynamic window are to be given during EmerSim execution. The dynamic window will appear automatically without request from the user. The countermeasure items that can be accessed, the Initialisation window hierarchy, and the default settings are shown in Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden. on the following page. - 5 -
Table 1: EmerSim user input STATIC initialisation window hierarchy (EmerSim-1.0) Emergency actions Determination of potential areas (Emersim-3.0) Areas: Input mode (Emersim-3.21) Areas by intervention levels Option for extension to sectors/zones (Emersim-3.31) Areas by graphics input Sub-window for graphical input Action selection and timing parameters Action selection (Emersim-4.0) Action selection Timing parameters for selected actions (Emersim-5.1) Timing for <sheltering only> (Emersim-5.2) Timing for <evacuation only> (Emersim-5.3) Timing for <stable iodine only> (Emersim-5.12) Timing for <sheltering + evacuation> (Emersim-5.13) Timing for <sheltering + stab.iodine> (Emersim-5.23) Timing for <evacuation + stab.iodine > (Emersim-5.123) Timing for <shelter+evac+stab.iodine> STATIC initialisation window default settings No extension to sectors/zones. All actions selected. Timing set for maximum possible effect of each action ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DYNAMIC initialisation window (C/M-IL) Dose intervention levels DYNAMIC initialisation window default setting Country-specific default settings; for details see text. - 6 -
As can be seen from the table, there are three main input categories. 1. (STATIC initialisation) Determination of potential countermeasure areas The following selection can be made in window (EmerSim-3.0): For sheltering, evacuation, and distribution of stable iodine tablets: Determination of potential countermeasure areas either by intervention levels (default) or by graphical input. For Relocation: Only intervention levels are possible. If the determination of the areas shall be based on intervention levels, it is additionally possible to let the areas automatically become extended by RODOS to complete sectors/zones in window (EmerSim-3.21). The default is "no automatic extension". 2. (STATIC initialisation) Selection of early actions to be considered for carrying out Timing parameters for the selected actions The actions, which can be considered for carrying out, are sheltering, evacuation, and distribution of stable iodine tablets. The selection is made in window (EmerSim-4.0). By default, all three actions are switched on. Before selecting the timing parameters one has to remember, that EmerSim calculates detailed countermeasures only for the so called "EmerSim interval" which lasts over the last 24 hours of the dispersion calculation episode, or covers it completely if the episode is shorter than 24 hours. Thus actions will only be carried out during this time period, not affecting the doses the population has received up to the time, the action starts. For the actions to be considered for carrying out, timing parameters can be specified. Which window will appear depends on the selected single action or action combination. By default, the timing is set for the maximum possible effect of any action, that is, sheltering during complete plume passage in areas affected by sheltering, evacuation before plume arrival in areas affected by evacuation, and prophylactic intake of iodine tablets in areas affected by the distribution of stable iodine. 3. (DYNAMIC initialisation) Numerical values for dose intervention levels The dynamic window (C/M-IL) serves for the specification of dose intervention levels, for the three emergency actions sheltering, evacuation, iodine tablets, and additionally for relocation. - 7 -
From RODOS PV6.0 Patch 07 onwards, RODOS considers countryspecific intervention criteria for sheltering, evacuation, and iodine tablets. The selection of the country is done already in the atmospheric dispersion and deposition (ADM) run, on which the EmerSim-run bases on. The selection of the country activated the default intervention levels for the respective country, which are displayed when window (C/M-IL) opens up for the first time. These values can then be changed by the user. The definition of the dose concept (projected or averted dose), and the exposure pathways and integration times to be considered for the calculation of the intervention doses for each organ, for the comparison with the dose intervention levels, got also already defined in the ADM run, on which the current EmerSim-run bases; they cannot be changed at the level of EmerSim. Note on dose intervention levels for relocation: Relocation areas are assessed also in the early countermeasures model of RODOS because of the potential need for fast emergency management there. The intervention criteria on the level of the early countermeasures model correspond to German modelling. Intervention criteria for International modelling can be specified only on the level of the late countermeasures model of RODOS. 1.3 Output Tab. 1 shows the results and additional information of EmerSim that are accessible with the RODOS graphics, together with the keywords, under which the results can be located in the RODOS graphics, and the physical units. The results cover: Maps of the areas potentially affected by the early actions, and additionally for relocation. Furthermore, the day of exceeding the intervention level for all early emergency actions is displayed. This information is an indication of a potential problem, but no action was carried out in these calculated areas. The time development of gamma doses and gamma dose rates from contaminated ground surface (lawn). Maps of individual doses from the exposure to cloudshine, groundshine, and inhalation for several organs and integration times. Maps of individual skin doses from the exposure to contaminated skin and clothes. Maps of individual doses summed over the exposure pathways. - 8 -
Dose frequency distributions in the population. Number of people living in a RODOS grid cell Protocol of the countermeasure definitions used in a run. Table with selected consequences. The doses without emergency actions and without any radiation shielding are called open-air doses. The normal living doses result from additional location factors, which describe the shielding under average normal living conditions. Tab. 1: Output from EmerSim result key in graphics unit [Potential Action Areas] Areas potentially affected by countermeasures (detailed simulation of actions only performed during the EmerSim-Interval) [Areas] the grid elemets affected by the action sheltering [Sheltering] - evacuation [Evacuation] - stable iodine - children age 5 years - stable iodine, adults relocation - temporary - permanent [IodineTablets] -[Children] -[Adults] [Relocation] -[temporary] -[permanent] [Day of exceeding IL] Time for exceeding of a given intervention level at a certain grid point sheltering [Sheltering] days evacuation [Evacuation] days stable iodine - children age 5 years - stable iodine, adults [IodineTablets] -[Children] -[Adults] - - days [Groundshine] Development of ground gamma dose and rate with time (individual dose) For open air Effective dose rate by gamma radiation from ground [Rates] msv/h (adults only), curve with time points at the first days of scenario, additionally at +1,7,14,30 days,+0.5, 1, 50 years 1 Effective Ground gamma dose (adults only) [Doses] msv 1 For simplification the time points of the dose rate curves are drawn at the upper end of the time intervals, corresponding to those of the dose curves. By this the dose rate curves appear to be shifted systematically to bigger times. (The times of the average dose rates lie in the interval, not at the upper end). - 9 -
curve with time points at the first days of the scenario, additionally at +1,7,14,30 days,+0.5, 1, 50 years [OrganDoses] Individual organ doses for exposure pathways cloud, ground, inhalation [NoAction] Without actions (for open air and normal living) [Action] With actions Cloud [Cloud] msv - integrated over plume passage - organs lung, bone marrow, thyroid, uterus, effective, skin - adults only Ground [Ground] msv - integrated over 1 day, 7 days, 30 days, 1 year, 50 years - organs lung, bone marrow, thyroid, uterus, effective, skin - adults only Inhalation, - integrated over 1 day, 7 days, 30 days, 1 year, 50 years - organs lung, bone marrow, thyroid, uterus, effective, skin - adults only - thyroid children age 5 years, integrated over 70 years [Inhalation] msv [OrganDoses] Doses for exposure to contaminated skin and clothes (individual dose, adults only) [NoAction] Without actions (for open air and normal living) [Action] With actions Local skin dose from self-irradiation of contaminated skin [LocalSkinDose] msv and clothes (alpha-, beta-, gamma-irradiation) accumulated over scenario length [OrganDoses] Doses summed up over exposure pathways Intervention Dose: Potential effective dose for comparison with intervention levels of early countermeasures (cloud gamma + ground gamma at least 7 days 2 + inhalation 50 years) Sum of organ doses from the exposure pathways cloud, ground (integrated over at least 7 days 2 ), inhalation (integrated over 50 years), plus organ dose resulting from skin and clothes during the scenario following the initial release (adults only) - without actions (for open air and normal living) and with actions - organs lung, bone marrow, thyroid, uterus, effective [Intervention Dose] [Sum] msv msv 2 Integration time exceeds 7 days for scenarios with duration longer than 7 days. - 10 -
[Spectra] Dose Frequency Distributions in the Population (individual dose, adults only) For organs lung, bone marrow, thyroid, uterus, effective [NoAction] Without actions (for open air and normal living) [Action] With actions Cloud, integrated over plume passage [Cloud] - Ground, integrated over at least 7 days 2 [Ground] - Inhalation, integrated over 50 years [Inhalation] - Sum of above results [Sum] - [Population] Number of people living in one RODOS grid cell Number of people living in one RODOS grid cell [Population] People /grid [Tables] Situation data protocols Countermeasure selection and timing [ActionData] - Selected consequences: Areas and people potentially [Consequences] - affected; collective doses; maximum doses 1.4 References In addition to the results shown in the table above, EmerSim also calculates data for the long-term countermeasure module LCMT, for the early consequence module EarlyCons, and the expert system module ESY. The general user has no access to these data. J. Päsler-Sauer, Model Description of the Early Countermeasures Module EmerSim in RODOS PV6final. Internal report RODOS(RA3)- TN(04)-03, Draft Version 2. - 11 -
2 Starting an EmerSim run in the interactive mode 2.1 Before starting the run 2.1.1 Selection of results from ADM run To execute EmerSim, results of a previous run of one of the RODOS atmospheric dispersion and deposition (ADM) programs, QUICKPRO, ALSMC, or RLSMC, are required as input data for EmerSim. Consider which run from which program you want to use. 2.1.2 Consideration of countermeasure input 2.2 Starting the run Before starting an EmerSim run you should consider, for example with help of Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden., if static input is required, or if the default settings for the static input items are sufficient for your purposes. 2.2.1 Overview Starting an interactive EmerSim run requires the following actions (in that order!): 1. (Cogent) Start of interactive manager 2. (Cogent) Selection of the RODOS ADM run on which the EmerSim run shall base on 3. (Cogent) Start of EmerSim without or with (Optional) previous static initialisation The countermeasure definitions used in each EmerSim run are recorded; see Chapter 5.8 for more details. 2.2.2 Start of interactive manager In the Main Dialogue menu of RODOS select the button [Interactive]. The Interactive Manager window appears. - 12 -
2.2.3 Selection of run option For details about the Interactive Manager window see [RODOS User Guide of the System Interface]. From RODOS PV6.0 Patch 07 onwards, it is recommended to use always the default run option default. For details about the meaning of the run option see [RODOS User Guide of the System Interface]. 2.2.4 Selection of the RODOS ADM run on which the EmerSim run shall base on In the tool bar of the Interactive Manager window, first press [Configuration] and then [Importing Result-Dataset to]. A window called Target Programs appears. In this window, choose EmerSim/QP when using the results of QUICKPRO, EmerSim/AL when using the results of ALSMC, EmerSim/RL when using the results of RLSMC. EmerSim/DL when using the results of DLSMC. A window appears in which all archived runs of all Atmospheric Dispersion Modules are listed. A run is selected by clicking on it and then pressing the button [Apply]. Attention (1): If you get an error message, although you carried out all steps in the correct way, proceed with the instructions in Chapter 2.2.6. Attention (2): If results from another atmospheric dispersion module than the one implied by the selection EmerSim /QP, /AL, or /RL is chosen, an error message appears and the configuration is refused. 2.2.5 Start of EmerSim run without or with static initialisation In the Interactive Manager window, click on - 13 -
[EmerSim/QP] when using the results of QUICKPRO, [EmerSim/AL] when using the results of ALSMC, [EmerSim/RL] when using the results of RLSMC. [EmerSim/DL] when using the results of DLSMC. The Start window pops up. First, enter the name you want to give to the run (the "Run-ID"). If your problem requires static initialisation, press [Initialising]. If the system then informs you, that there is no load list, and an automatic copy will be generated, proceed with the instructions in Chapter 2.2.6. When the load list is present, Static Initialisation windows will open, which are described in detail in Chapters 3. On return from the Initialisation windows you automatically come back to the Start window. Start the EmerSim run by pressing on [Start]. After a while, a Dynamic Initialisation window will open, that is described in Chapter Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden.. Or, you can cancel the start preparations by pressing [Cancel]. After the run has been started, the Control & Services window appears. This window is described in detail in [RODOS User Guide of the System Interface]. One feature, however, namely the [Info]-button, is of particular importance for EmerSim and is described here. - 14 -
The [Info]-button appears at the bottom of the Control & Services window, but only some time after EmerSim has left the INIT phase (use the [Process Status]-button of the Control & Services window to see where EmerSim is when running). On first appearance, the button has a violet colour and can be pressed (later, it gets grey and becomes inactive). A window opens which informs you about the site and the reactor block name, the size of the inner grid cells, and whether the areas are defined by intervention levels or by graphics input. 2.2.6 Messages resulting from missing load lists during the different start phases, and corresponding user actions If you wanted to carry out a configuration step in the Interactive Manager window, and an error message appears when the system is going to perform the configuration, although you carried out all steps in the correct way, this means that there is no load list. Then go to the Start window and click [Start]: The system will generate an automatic copy. You must wait until the ready-message appears, and then repeat the configuration step(s). If you wanted to carry out an initialisation step with the Initialisation windows, and the system informs you, that there is no load list, and an automatic copy will be generated, you first must wait until that was finished. Afterwards, you must repeat any configuration you have performed so far. - 15 -
3 Static Initialisation Windows for EmerSim 3.1 Overview All EmerSim Static Initialisation windows are arranged in the form of a tree. It is always possible to proceed to the next branch or return to the previous branch. Some of the windows have a [Help] button. By pressing this button, you get more information about the items in the corresponding menu. This button is omitted in the following menu descriptions. Some of the windows have a [Print] button. By pressing this button, you get a printout of the corresponding menu. This button is omitted in the following menu descriptions. The static initialisation windows shown in Chapters 3.3 to 3.5 are for an example run with run-name "demo". This run-name appears as the leftmost item [demo] in the title line of the windows. The static initialisation window hierarchy is summarised in Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden.. 3.2 Starting and ending the static EmerSim initialisation After having pressed [Initialising] in the Start window, the Program Initialisation window appears. On return from the EmerSim Static Initialisation windows you come back to this menu. For the meaning of the two buttons [single-display], which is the default, and [double-display] see [RODOS User Guide of the System Interface]. 3.2.1 Starting the static initialisation In the Program Initialisation window, click on EmerSim. Next, the Dataset Selection window comes up. - 16 -
This window switches between modification of the default data, or of either the data from the previous initialisation, or the data from another initialisation made earlier. After pressing the appropriate button (details not shown here), the first EmerSim initialisation menu EmerSim-1.0 pops up (see Chapter 3.3). 3.2.2 Ending the static initialisation On return from the Static Initialisation windows you come back to the Program Initialisation window. Now you have three choices: To apply the input made in the Initialisation windows, click on [Apply]. After the system finished working, click on [Return]. To cancel all input made in the Initialisation windows and then start again with new input, click first on [unlock buttons], then proceed again from 3.2.1. To ignore all input made in the Initialisation windows and start the program with the pre-set selections, click on [Return]. Leaving the EmerSim initialisation brings you back to the Start window. 3.3 (EmerSim-1.0) Startup-window for static early countermeasure items Menu EmerSim-1.0 is for the selection of items for early countermeasures that must be put in statically in RODOS. The subwindows for the actual input are accessed by clicking on Determination of potential areas, and on Action selection and timing parameters, which brings you to the menus Emersim-3.0 and Emersim-4.0, respectively. - 17 -
[Close] brings you back to the Program Initialisation window. 3.4 Determination of potential areas 3.4.1 (Emersim-3.0) Areas: Input mode Clicking on Area determination with intervention levels (this is the default) and on Area determination with graphics input brings you to the menus Emersim-3.21 and Emersim-3.31, respectively. You can choose either one or the other mode, a combination of both is not possible. [Close] stores the selection and brings you back to the next upper menu. 3.4.2 (Emersim-3.21) Area determination with intervention levels - Sector/Zone Option In this window, you can specify, if the area determination shall be done on the basis of intervention levels (which can be defined in a dynamic window during run-time) exclusively (default), or on the basis of intervention levels, but extended to complete sectors/zones. - 18 -
In the first case, the areas only consist of those cells in the calculation grid, where the intervention levels are exceeded. In the second case, the entire sector of a distance zone is assumed to be affected by a countermeasure, if the intervention level is exceeded in at least one of the computation cells contained there-in. Outside of the area covered, it is proceeded as in the first case. [Close] exits the window without storing any input. [Update] confirms any input. 3.4.3 (Emersim-3.31 and subwindows) Area determination with graphics input To enable the area determination with graphics input for EmerSim, the Main Drawing Window must be open. After pressing the Area determination with graphics input button in the window EmerSim-3.0, the entry window for the graphical area input EmerSim-3.31 opens. There are two options for the graphical area input: [Modify archived areas]: Here, the graphical area input can be based on the results of a previous run; the action areas calculated there can be loaded into the Main Drawing Window, modified and then saved. - 19 -
At first, window Emersim-3.32 opens. Click to [Continue] and the window "List of Archived Runs" opens. If you want to go back without any input at this stage, click on [Close], which brings you back to the next upper level. If you want to go back without any input at this stage, click on [Close], which brings you back to the next upper level. Selecting one of the archived runs presented in the window means that you base your input on an already existing area determination created earlier, which you now want to modify graphically. The stored files are distinguished by "arch: run-id", which means "archived runs". Having made the selection, press [Apply] and window Emersim-3.33 will open. [New area input]: Selecting this button means that you want to input the areas graphically completely from scratch. After pressing the button, window Emersim-3.33 will open. Note that in this case you will not get relocation areas, because for them there exists no graphical input mode. Independent which of the two options for graphical input of areas you choose, you come to window Emersim-3.33, where you select the countermeasure or countermeasure combination for modification. - 20 -
If you want to enter sheltering and/or evacuation areas, press [Shelter+Evac.]. If you want to enter stable iodine tablet administration areas for adults or children, click on [Iodine Adults] or [Iodine Child.], respectively. You can modify the areas for all three actions one after the other. Note: The graphical input of relocation areas is not possible. If you want to go back without any input at this stage, click on [Close], which brings you back to the next upper level. After having chosen [Shelter+Evac.] or [Iodine Adults], or [Iodine Child.], either the results from the base run or empty areas will be shown in the Main Drawing Window. In the following, as an example it is assumed that [Shelter+Evac.] was selected; the successor window Input/Sheltering and Evacuation pops up. Now you have to do the following: In the Save to line, pull from [RIF file] to [Module] (but do not press [Save] yet!). Click on User Input. In the same line, you can select the input mode. By default, it is [Pencil mode]. In this mode, you can use the mouse pointer as a pencil and draw a line. Each grid cell hit by the line is then marked. Or you can pull this bar down from [Pencil mode] to [Area mode], - 21 -
to enable drawing polygons. Each grid cell inside a polygon is then marked. Pull down the Value bar away from [0] (zero means no action) to the desired action or action combination. Go into the Main Drawing Window. Draw a polygon in [Area mode] with the left mouse button (repeated "click on polygon-corner, - pull line - click on next polygon-corner"). Close the polygon by pressing the right mouse button. By selecting [Redraw] in the Tool Bar of Main Drawing Window, the map is redrawn with the polygon area appearing in the colour of the selected action or action combination. Draw a line or point in [Pencil mode] with the left mouse button ("click on point - pull line - click on point", a little pull is necessary also for drawing a point). By selecting [Redraw] in the Tool Bar of the Main Drawing Window, the map is redrawn with the line area or grid cell appearing in the colour of the selected action or action combination. Repeat above actions as often as necessary until the desired action pattern is achieved, eventually with switching the mode or the value. Click on [Save] in the Input/Sheltering and Evacuation window, which then disappears. Now you are back in the countermeasure selection window for the graphical area input, EmerSim-3.33, where you can choose another action to modify the corresponding area. [Close] exits the window without storing any input; [Update] confirms any input. After that, exit the EmerSim input and start a new run with the graphically defined early countermeasure areas (and, of course, all eventual input made for the timing parameters). 3.5 Action selection and timing for selected actions 3.5.1 (Emersim-4.0) Action selection In window EmerSim-4.0, select those countermeasures, the performance of which shall be computed in the potentially affected area. Each of the countermeasures listed in the window can be switched on and off (switched on: key in pressed position; switched off: key is not pressed). By default, all three actions are switched on. - 22 -
3.5.2 Timing for selected actions If you only want to inspect which actions are active without further changes to the selection or input of timing parameters, simply click on [Close], which brings you back to the next upper level. If you want to activate or de-activate actions, but without modification of timing parameters, first activate or de-activate the action(s). Then click on [Update], which brings you back to the next upper level. If you have switched off all actions, a window EmerSim-4.1 will appear to inform you about this, in which you must click on [Close], which brings you back to the next upper level. If you want to activate or de-activate actions with modification of timing parameters, first activate or de-activate the action(s). Then click on [Timing], which brings you to the window for the input of the timing parameters. Upon completion of entering the timing parameters, click on [Update], which brings you back to the next upper level. After the click on [Timing] in window EmerSim-4.0, a successor window pops up for the input of the timing parameters. Which window will appear depends on which countermeasures have been activated (see also Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden.). For the countermeasures sheltering and evacuation, three combinations exist: - Sheltering (without evacuation), - Evacuation (without sheltering), - Sheltering and evacuation. In addition, the countermeasure distribution of stable iodine can be studied either as an individual countermeasure or in combination with sheltering or evacuation. The input windows for sheltering (EmerSim-5.1), evacuation (EmerSim-5.2), stable iodine (EmerSim-5.3) as single actions, and for the combined action sheltering+evacuation (EmerSim-5.12) are shown - 23 -
and explained in the following chapters. If stable iodine was selected in addition to sheltering, evacuation, or sheltering+evacuation, the same input as for the iodine action alone appears in the bottom of the respective window for the action combination. The corresponding windows (EmerSim-5.13), (EmerSim-5.23), (EmerSim-5.123) are combinations of the windows already explained and are not shown again. Please remember, that all emergency actions are assumed to be performed in the so-called EmerSim-Interval (see also Chapter 1.1.2): If the ADM episode duration is less or equal the maximum duration of the EmerSim-interval for the chosen ADM time step length, the EmerSim-interval is identical with the ADM episode. For an ADM episode duration exceeding the maximum duration of the EmerSim-interval, the EmerSim-interval will cover the last 8 (for 10 minutes ADM-time steps) or 24 hours (for half hour or one hour ADM time steps) of the calculation episode, that is, it starts 8 or 24 hours before the end of the calculation episode. With respect to action timing specifications for EmerSim, please note: All action timing specifications refer to the beginning of the EmerSim-interval. All timing specifications should be given in multiples of the ADM time step length. If this is not so, times get rounded to the nearest ADM time step multiple, and a corresponding message is written into the protocol of the countermeasure definitions. Action durations exceeding the EmerSim-interval are cut to the end of the EmerSim-interval. Is not allowed to request an action to start beyond the EmerSiminterval. Example (for an ADM time step of 30 minutes or 1 hour): Start of prognosis calculation: End of prognosis calculation 23.01.2003 13:15 o' clock. 26.01.2003 18:40 o' clock. The EmerSim-Interval will start on 25.01.2003 at 18:40 and ends on 26.01.2003 at 18:40, i.e. it lasts 24 hours. Emergency actions are simulated only for this time period. All actions performed are ended after this time period. - 24 -
3.5.2.1 (EmerSim-5.1) Timing for <sheltering only> The timing is illustrated in Figure 1. For the action <sheltering only>, before the start and after completion of the action normal living is assumed for the population in the sheltering area. During sheltering, the people in the sheltering area are supposed to stay in buildings with the respective shielding properties taken from the geographical database. In the input window, which is shown below, specify the start and the duration of sheltering. All times apply for the entire area potentially affected by <sheltering only>. The start-time must be given relative to the time point <begin of EmerSim-Interval>. If the start-time is beyond the end of the EmerSim-Interval (that means also beyond the end of the prognosis period), the program will stop. For the example above 3, the following is not allowed: Start of sheltering = 24.5 hours, i.e. on 26.01.2003 at 19:10. begin of EmerSim-Interval 0 duration of sheltering start of sheltering Figure 1: Timing for sheltering without evacuation If the start-time does not lie beyond the EmerSim-Interval, but the end of sheltering does so, sheltering is assumed to terminate with the end of the prognosis. For the example above 4 : 3 This example refers to an ADM time step length of 30 or 60 minutes. 4 This example refers to an ADM time step length of 30 or 60 minutes. - 25 -
- Start of sheltering = 4.5 hours, i.e. on 25.01.2003 at 23:10. - User-specified duration of sheltering = 22 hours, i.e. sheltering would end at 21:10 on 26.01.2003; - Assumed end of sheltering in EmerSim, however, at 18:40 on 26.01.2003, i.e. duration of sheltering is cut to 19.5 hours. The duration of sheltering can have a maximal value of 24 hours; in this case the sheltering must start at time 0. The default timing for <sheltering only> is set up for "sheltering from the start of the EmerSim-Interval until end of the prognosis". Note that all times should be given in multiples of the ADM time step length. If this is not so, times get rounded to the nearest ADM time step multiple. A Corresponding message gets written into the protocol of the countermeasure definitions. [Close] exits the window without storing any input. [Update] confirms any input. 3.5.2.2 (EmerSim-5.2) Timing for <evacuation only> The timing is illustrated in Figure 2. For the action <evacuation only>, before the start normal living is assumed for the population in the evacuation area. During the ride out of the evacuation area, radiation exposure at the starting point is assumed for all evacuees. During the absence from the evacuation area, it is assumed that the evacuated persons are not exposed to any further accident-related radiation. After the people have returned, normal living is assumed again. In the input window, which is shown below, first specify the start of the evacuation. Then specify the duration of the travel time to leave the evacuation area, and the duration of absence from the area. All times - 26 -
apply for the entire area potentially affected by <evacuation only>. The start-time must be given relative to the time point <begin of EmerSim- Interval>. begin of EmerSim-Interval 0 evacuation travel time duration of absence from evacuation area start of evacuation people returning from evacuation Figure 2: Timing for evacuation without sheltering If the start-time is beyond the end of the EmerSim-Interval, the program will stop. For the example above the following is not allowed: Start of evacuation = 25 hours, i.e. on 26.01.2003 at 19:40. If the start-time does not lie the beyond the EmerSim-Interval, but the end of the evacuation travel time does so, it is assumed that evacuation is completed with the end of the prognosis. For the example above 5 : - Start of evacuation = 20.5 hours, i.e. on 26.01.2003 at 15:10. - User-specified evacuation travel time = 5 hours, i.e. evacuation would be completed on 26.01.2003 at 20:10; - Assumed completion of evacuation in EmerSim, however, on 26.01.2003 at 18:40, i.e. travel time is cut to 3.5 hours. 5 This example refers to an ADM time step length of 30 or 60 minutes. - 27 -
The default timing for <evacuation only> is set up to be completed with the end of the EmerSim-Interval. This is achieved by specifying zero for the start of the evacuation and for the duration of the travel time to leave the evacuation area. The default duration of absence from the evacuation area is 30 days. Note that all times should be given in multiples of the ADM time step length. If this is not so, times get rounded to the nearest ADM time step multiple. A Corresponding message gets written into the protocol of the countermeasure definitions. [Close] exits the window without storing any input. [Update] confirms any input. 3.5.2.3 (EmerSim-5.12) Timing for <sheltering + evacuation> For simultaneous simulation of sheltering and evacuation, three areas may be distinguished as a function of the radiological situation and the intervention levels selected: 1. An area that is only affected by sheltering, but not by evacuation. 2. An area that is only affected by evacuation, but not by sheltering. 3. An area that is affected by both sheltering and evacuation. The three areas and the respective timing in RODOS are illustrated in Figure 3. In the area only affected by sheltering, but not by evacuation, before the start and after completion of the action normal living is assumed for the population in the area. During sheltering, the people in the area are supposed to stay in buildings with the respective shielding properties taken from the geographical database. - 28 -
Area "Sheltering Only" begin of EmerSim-Interval 0 duration of sheltering start of sheltering Area "Sheltering followed by Evacuation" and area "Evacuation" begin of EmerSim-Interval 0 duration of sheltering evacuation travel time duration of absence from evacuation area start of sheltering start of evacuation people returning from evacuation Figure 3: Areas and timings for sheltering plus evacuation In the area affected by evacuation, the following assumptions hold irrespective from parts of the area eventually also being affected by sheltering: The evacuation begins with the specified start time. During the ride out of the evacuation area, radiation exposure at the starting point is assumed for all evacuees. During the absence from the evacuation area, it is assumed that the evacuated persons are not exposed to any further accident-related radiation. After the people have returned, normal living is assumed. However, the assumptions for the time prior to the start of the evacuation are different in the parts of the evacuation area affected by evacuation only, and by sheltering and evacuation, respectively: In the part affected by evacuation, but not by sheltering, normal living is assumed for all people. In the part affected by both sheltering and evacuation, during the sheltering period the people are supposed to stay in buildings with the respective shielding properties taken from the geographical database. Before the start of sheltering, or in the time period between the end of sheltering and the start of evacuation (if there is - 29 -
such a time gap in the user specifications), normal living is assumed for all people. Window EmerSim-5.12 for the input of the timing parameters for the combined action <sheltering+evacuation> is shown below. As the window is rather large, it is shown in two parts to demonstrate all items. All start-times must be given relative to the time point <begin of EmerSim-Interval>. All times apply for the entire area potentially affected by the respective action or action combination. Window (EmerSim-5.12) Upper part- The upper part of window EmerSim-5.12 serves for the input for the area only affected by sheltering, but not by evacuation. There, specify the start and the duration of sheltering for this region. If the start-time is beyond the end of the EmerSim-Interval, the program will stop. If the start-time does not exceed the EmerSim-Interval, but the duration does so, sheltering is assumed to terminate with the end of the EmerSim-Interval. The default timing for the <sheltering only> area is set up for "sheltering from the start of the EmerSim-Interval until end of prognosis" (the prognosis duration is per default 24 hours and can be changed in the atmospheric dispersion program by the user). This is achieved by specifying 0 for the start of sheltering, and 24 hours for the sheltering duration. - 30 -
The lower part of window EmerSim-5.12 serves for the input for the area affected by evacuation only and sheltering + evacuation, respectively. For sheltering, specify the start and the duration of sheltering for this region. For evacuation, first specify the start of the evacuation. Then specify the duration of the ride out of the evacuation area, and the duration of absence from the area. If the duration of sheltering exceeds the start time of evacuation, it is assumed that the duration of sheltering is cut and the people evacuate with the specified start time of evacuation. Note, however, that the start of sheltering must be earlier than the start of evacuation. Violation of this constraint will lead to an error stop with a respective error message. Window (EmerSim-5.12) Lower part- If the start-time for evacuation is beyond the EmerSim-Interval, the program will stop. If the start-time does not exceed the EmerSim- Interval, but the travel time out of the evacuation area does so, it is assumed that evacuation is completed with the end of the EmerSim- Interval. The default timing for the <evacuation > area is set up so that evacuation is to be completed without any sheltering period with the start of the EmerSim-Interval. This is achieved by specifying 0 for the start of the evacuation and for the duration of the evacuation travel time as well as for the start and the duration of sheltering in the - 31 -
evacuation area. The default duration of absence from the evacuation area is 30 days. Note that all times should be given in multiples of the ADM time step length. If this is not so, times get rounded to the nearest ADM time step multiple. A Corresponding message gets written into the protocol of the countermeasure definitions. [Close] exits the window without storing any input. [Update] confirms any input. 3.5.2.4 (EmerSim-5.3) Timing for <stable iodine only> The timing is illustrated in Figure 4Fehler! Verweisquelle konnte nicht gefunden werden.. In the entire area potentially affected by the distribution of iodine tablets, it is assumed that the intake of the iodine tablets takes place at the same time. In the input window, which is shown below, specify the intake of the iodine tablets relative to the time point <begin of EmerSim-Interval>. If the intake-time is beyond the EmerSim-Interval, the program will stop. begin of EmerSim-Interval 0 Intake of stable iodine Figure 4: Timing for the distribution of stable iodine The default timing for <stable iodine> is set up for intake of the tablets with the start of the EmerSim-Interval. This is achieved by specifying 0 for the intake time. - 32 -
Note that all times should be given in multiples of the ADM time step length. If this is not so, times get rounded to the nearest ADM time step multiple. A Corresponding message gets written into the protocol of the countermeasure definitions. [Close] exits the window without storing any input. [Update] confirms any input. - 33 -
4 Dynamic Intervention Level Window (C/M-IL) for EmerSim From RODOS PV6.0 Patch 07 onwards, there is one dynamic initialisation window, (C/M-IL), which will appear automatically when EmerSim runs, without request from the user. The window shown below is for an example run with run-name "emersim". This run-name appears as the leftmost item [emersim] in the title line of the window. Window (C/M-IL) serves for the specification of dose intervention levels, for different organs, for the three emergency actions sheltering, evacuation, iodine tablets (adults and children), and additionally for relocation 6. 6 Relocation areas are assessed also in the early countermeasures model of RODOS because of the potential need for fast emergency management there. The intervention criteria on the level of the early countermeasures model correspond to German modelling. Intervention criteria for International modelling can be specified only on the level of the late countermeasures model of RODOS. - 34 -