What We Learned at the 2013 Television Upfronts May 31, 2013
State of the State Hard to believe it s that time of year again, but here we are. The broadcast networks have officially unveiled their 2013 2014 primetime schedules after the annual week-long extravaganza in New York City. Before we take a look at the impending season, let s do a quick year-in-review. Unfortunately, the 2012 2013 season turned out to be one of the worst TV seasons for the networks, as they produced no real hits and experienced significant audience erosion within their top shows (i.e., American Idol, Dancing with the Stars). Conversely, cable had a stellar year, with big hits such as The Walking Dead, Duck Dynasty and The Bible breaking ratings records in the coveted Adult 18 49 demographic, and generating coveted press. The one bright spot in network TV was CBS. Although they were down 3% year-to-year, they celebrated their first win against the key A18 49 demographic in 21 years. The CBS win against the money demo broke FOX s eight-year winning streak, as the network dropped 22% this season due to a lack of any breakout hits and the huge decline of American Idol. NBC was on top with NFL this fall but had a much harder time when the NFL ended and The Voice was on hiatus. Year to year they lost only 4% and came in third. ABC limped into fourth place, down 12% over last year. The CW was also down around 13% for the year, but since it does not sell against the 18-49 demo, the network is still a solid buy for the Millennial brands. One interesting trend worth noting is the rise of the Hispanic networks, with Univision even beating NBC in the February sweep! The 2012 13 Results Adults 18 49 C3 Ratings 2.9-3% 2.5-22% 2.4-4% 2.2-12% 0.7 +0% 0.5 +9% 1.5 +0% Source: Nielsen 2
Five 2013 Upfront Takeaways As they do every year, the networks used this time to showcase freshman series picked up from program development, as well as modifications made to their existing lineups. The following provides our point of view on strategies and potential challenges. 2. Resurrecting the Past 1. The Search for the Next Modern Family Even more than in recent years, network executives are in need and in search of a breakout comedy franchise. Comedies appeal to the younger demos, they repeat well, and successful ones convert into lucrative syndication deals. NBC is looking to fill holes left by fan favorites 30 Rock and The Office, while CBS will soon be waving goodbye to How I Met Your Mother and Two and a Half Men at the end of the 2013 season. Using ABC s Modern Family as a formula for success, 13 family-centric comedies were introduced across ABC, CBS and NBC s schedules. Plot lines will range from an 11-year-old capturing the craziness of his 80s family via camcorder in ABC s The Goldbergs to a man-child whose world is turned upside down when a needy single mom and her young son move in next door in NBC s About a Boy. Key nights to keep an eye on: Tuesdays 9 10 p.m. will be the most competitive hour of comedy, with ABC, FOX and NBC each programming two sitcoms (four out of six shows are new) and Thursdays, when CBS and NBC will fight it out 8 10 p.m. (five out of eight shows are new). No, you are not crazy. Yes, you are experiencing déjà vu. With cable programs like The Walking Dead providing more competition and in some cases outdelivering broadcast ratings, the networks are turning to recognized concepts (24, The Avengers, Alice and Wonderland) and big-name talent (Robin Williams, Kiefer Sutherland, Blair Underwood) in the hopes of increasing viewership. While this is a trend that has happened in previous seasons, it seems a bit more prevalent looking ahead to the fall of 2013. Although this approach has worked in the past (Hawaii Five-O), it has equally fallen short (think the remakes of Charlie s Angels and Knight Rider). If we had to place our bets, it would be on the return of Jack Bauer in the 12-episode arc of 24: Live Another Day. 3
Five 2013 Upfront Takeaways (Cont.) 3. Sci-Fi and Fantasy, Front and Center While this trend started a few years ago, the Sci-Fi/Fantasy genre has begun to take a commanding position in primetime, overshadowing the once-dominant typical procedural crime dramas (à la Law & Order and CSI franchises). Starting in the fall, eight hours will be programmed with new adventures like Almost Human, The Originals, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, Sleepy Hollow and Crossbones. Historically, dramas of this nature have aired in the 10 p.m. hour; however, the majority of this fantastical fare will now air between 8 and 10 p.m., while the third hour will be dominated by dramas centering around mystery, deceit and revenge. Playing off the success of Supernatural and Vampire Diaries, The CW is emerging as the leader for this genre, as seven of their 10 programs will be grounded in the world of fantasy. 4. Less Is More In an attempt to keep programming fresh, topical and current for viewers, networks are incorporating limited-run series. This idea is clearly not new and has proven extremely fruitful in cable, delivering stellar ratings for FX s American Horror Story, A&E s Hatfields & McCoys and History s The Bible. Given the way people consume content these days, coupled with the economic realities of production costs, trying to create 12 quality episodes vs. 22 so-so ones each year is a much more attainable goal. Of the shorter series on slate for the fall, some buyer favorites are, of course, 24: Live Another Day (FOX), Hostages (CBS) and Dracula (NBC). I mean, let s be honest, how can you not love Jonathan Rhys Meyers taking on Bram Stoker s classic Dracula? 4
Five 2013 Upfront Takeaways (Cont.) 5. No Unified Theme Unlike past upfront presentations, there was no unified theme that connected all of the networks this year. As the video landscape continues to fragment, finding one unified theme across all networks was unlikely. The argument for C7 ratings was never brought up. The Digital Content NewFronts (AOL, MSN, Yahoo!, YouTube, Hulu) that took over New York the prior week was not openly acknowledged in any way. Instead, each network focused in on whatever topic seemed most favorable to its agenda. FOX was heavily invested in Social, and spoke about its partnership with Twitter and its ability to sell ad units alongside FOX content. The network also spoke about its short-form digital incubators, comprising their Animation Domination HD, the female-centric WIGS (a YouTube channel), and Short- Com Comedy Hour. These shorts are designed to test different premises, and viewer feedback will determine their fate. The CW also spoke about its commitment to digital, and has rebranded its digital studio as CW Seed. They will continue to develop new content in an effort to cultivate new concepts and talent. ABC was all about reinforcing its unified video offering across screens, which now includes Hulu and a partnership with Nielsen to measure its content on mobile. ABC also touted its Watch ABC streaming app, which allows authenticated viewers to stream their local ABC stations and will roll out on a market-by-market basis. NBC stepped off the C7 bandwagon and focused solely on its muchneeded extreme makeover as they introduced the most programs of any network (and the most latenight changes). CBS represented the quintessential old-guard upfront. For CBS the theme was simple: It is all about TV. It is all about CBS. It was all about being number one, even if being number one requires fewer viewers these days. Such a great time to be a broadcast network without a care in the world, indeed. 5
Last year the networks rolled out 37 new shows, and 10 are coming back. There are 52 on the books this year and we are hopeful that more than 10 will see a second season. Here is a top-line assessment of what to look out for. All FOX, All the Time He Who Laughs Last Network-by-Network Analysis WINNING! As if Leslie Moonves needs more fodder, for the first time in 21 years CBS was just declared the winner in the all-important A18 49 demo for the 2012 13 season. The network, however, will not be resting on its laurels. Though it ordered the fewest new shows of all the networks (as has been the case in the last few years), CBS is making some big changes to its lineup by shifting around many of its veteran series in an attempt to give some of its freshmen series stronger lead-ins. In an effort to find its next Two and a Half Men, five of the six shows CBS picked up are sitcoms. The network will debut We Are Men, about four divorced guys living in the same short-term complex; Robin Williams is back as the head of an ad agency in The Crazy Ones; The Millers, starring Will Arnett as a newly divorced reporter; and Chuck Lorre s Mom (which received only a few soft chuckles). A last-minute addition, singlecamera comedy Bad Teacher (based on the 2011 Cameron Diaz film), will star Kristin Davis and Sara Gilbert. The one drama CBS added to its schedule, Hostages, features Toni Collette as a D.C. surgeon whose family is kidnapped; it looks promising and is following the trend of limited-run series. Having finished the 2012 13 season behind CBS among A18 49, FOX is shelling out a lot of cash for big names and offering fresh programming year-round. Perhaps the biggest announcement (which we ve now mentioned several times) is the return of Kiefer Sutherland in 24: Live Another Day. That series, in addition to M. Night Shyamalan s series Wayward Pines, will be debuting in May rather than the typical September or January. Other big names include Greg Kinnear in Rake, J.J. Abrams with his futuristic police drama Almost Human, Seth MacFarlane with his new comedy Dads, and Andy Sandberg in Brooklyn Nine- Nine. Reality will still play a big part on the network, as American Idol and X-Factor remain on Wednesday nights and chef Gordon Ramsey will put kids to work in Junior Masterchef on Fridays. FOX also has some tricks up its sleeve, because there are four new scripted series that have yet to be scheduled (Gang Related, Us & Them, Surviving Jack and Murder Police). 6
Looking Forward Super Heroes, Super Nights, Super Ratings (Hopefully) After the massive success of The Avengers movie, ABC is hoping for Hulk-like ratings with its small-screen offshoot, Marvel s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. Another spin-off, Once Upon a Time in Wonderland, is a dark twist on the famous Lewis Carroll tale. The breakout star of Bridesmaids and Pitch Perfect, Rebel Wilson, is getting her own show in Super Fun Night, a 30-minute comedy following three friends experiencing NYC nightlife for the first time. Given the program s prime positioning after Modern Family, the network clearly has faith in her star power. Speaking of Modern Family, ABC is hoping to strike ratings gold again with three new family comedies: The Goldbergs follows a dysfunctional family during the 1980s, Trophy Wife chronicles a reformed party girl transitioning into her new role as stepmom, and Back in the Game is about a single mother and her gruff father coaching a team of lovable losers in Little League. Broader Programming = Bigger Ratings? Delivering on their promise from last year, NBC is continuing to develop broader programming with mass appeal. Having canceled all of their freshmen comedy series (we hardly knew ye, Animal Practice, Guys with Kids, 1600 Penn, Go On, and The New Normal), NBC will try, once again, to bring back must-see Thursdays with three new family comedies starring veteran performers Mike O Malley (Welcome to the Family), Michael J. Fox (The Michael J. Fox Show), and Sean Hayes (Sean Saves the World). On the drama side, NBC previewed three new procedurals: The Blacklist, starring James Spader as a criminal mastermind helping the FBI solve crimes, the remake of Ironside, which follows a wheelchair-bound cop (Blair Underwood) solving even more crimes, and the Chicago Fire spin-off, Chicago P.D., about Chicago cops solving, you guessed it, crimes. Of course we d be remiss if we didn t mention that NBC wouldn t be able to launch these new programs without the ratings powerhouse that is The Voice, whose continued growth cycle-over-cycle is reminiscent of the early years of American Idol. More Extraordinary. Still Beautiful. After seeing success with niche-genre programming like Arrow and Supernatural, The CW is beginning to step away from shows about beautiful, rich teenage girls coming of age in high school. Four out of the five new programs have a Sci-Fi/Fantasy twist: The Vampire Diaries spin-off, The Originals, features even more sexy bloodsuckers, while Tomorrow People follows a group of good-looking outcasts with special abilities that include teleportation and telepathy. Don t fret, Gossip Girl fans: Reign, which looks like a cross between 90210 and The Tudors, tells the story of a teenage Mary Queen of Scots as she arrives in France in the 1500s. 7
Our Prognostication: Fall 2013 Hits & Misses Success On the Fence Failure The Michael J. Fox Show The Blacklist Sean Saves the World Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. Super Fun Night Lucky 7 Hostages The Millers We Are Men Brooklyn Nine-Nine Rake Dads The Originals The Tomorrow People Reign 8
Final Word With the upfront marketplace expected to open in full force this week, it will be interesting to see if the broadcast networks will maintain the same level of investments they received last year ($9.25 billion) or if cable will siphon off more, as they did last year ($9.8 billion). What also remains to be seen is whether digital video investments will increase this year and if it will come from existing digital budgets or from TV budgets. We still do not see significant movement of TV to digital video dollars, in spite of the audience erosion television experienced this season. Not that the audience isn t adapting to alternative screens or extending its consumption of standard broadcast fare across multiple devices. The fact remains that while the amount of quality digital video continues to grow, as showcased during the NewFronts, in its current state, it still isn t scalable. Similar to the 2012-13 season, the broadcast networks are continuing to link their content across all platforms. Last year ABC, The CW, FOX and NBC packaged digital impressions with their TV deals, allocating around 10% of impressions to digital video, and they will be doing that more this year. ABC is now joining FOX in handling the sales of its content on Hulu, and also working with Nielsen to measure mobile video. As the networks sign on with Nielsen s Online Campaign Ratings (OCR), advertisers are now able to start following network audiences to other screens as they seek out their content where and when they want it. Network chiefs hope to celebrate a better 2013-14 season The other obstacle that faces the NewFront offerings is that their content is not curated or branded as it is on broadcast and cable. When you think of broadcast networks you get a sense as to who they reach: CBS Older, ABC Female, The CW Young Women, FOX Young Men. Even in cable you have a good sense of what each network offers: Bravo Women, ESPN Men, HGTV Home, Turner Comedy, TNT Drama, and so forth. Aside from YouTube, which is treating its home-grown talent as its brand, the rest are offering up an assortment of everything imaginable, yet not bundled in any branded or scalable way. While the broadcast networks scramble to stop the ratings bleeding with this year s offerings, they will continue to bundle the digital streamers of their content, thus trying to circumvent the NewFront contingent from any significant share gains until perhaps next year? Stay tuned. 9
Fall 2013 Network Primetime Schedule 10