Vol. XXVI, No. 4 December 2002 New energy technologies: trends in the development of clean and efficient energy technologies Oil and macroeconomic fluctuations in Mexico Energy indicators OPEC official statements Adnan Shihab-Eldin François Boye OPEC Secretariat OPEC Secretariat Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
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Energy economics and related issues Editorial office PR and Information Department OPEC Secretariat Obere Donaustrasse 93 1020 Vienna, Austria telephone: +43 1 211 12 telefax: +43 1 214 98 27 e-mail: prid@opec.org internet: www.opec.org Editor-in-Chief Abdulrahman Al-Kheraigi Editor Keith Marchant Production Andrea Birnbach Katherina Bilko Graphics Alaa Al-Saigh Publishing office Blackwell Publishers 108 Cowley Road Oxford OX4 1JF, UK telephone: +44 1865 791100 telefax: +44 1865 791347 The OPEC Review is a quarterly energy journal prepared by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Each issue consists of a selection of original research papers on economic issues affecting the global energy industry and related topics, such as Third World development and the environment. The principal objective of the OPEC Review is to broaden awareness of these issues, enhancing scholarship in universities, research institutes and other centres of learning. The scope is international. The OPEC Review welcomes submissions from academics and other energy experts. Prospective authors wishing to submit papers should refer to the page entitled Submissions of papers to the OPEC Review at the back of each issue. This contains all the relevant details. All correspondence about subscriptions should be sent to Blackwell Publishers, which publishes and distributes the quarterly journal on behalf of OPEC in March, June, September and December. General disclaimer for all papers published in the OPEC Review The data, opinions and other statements appearing in papers published in the OPEC Review are the sole responsibility of the authors concerned. Moreover, they should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the policies or views of the bodies they represent, or of OPEC. Accordingly, the editorial and publishing offices, and their respective employees, officers and agents, accept no responsibility or liability whatsoever for the consequences of any inaccurate or misleading data, opinion or statement. 2002 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
OPEC Review Vol. XXVI, No. 4 December 2002
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Recent issues of the OPEC Review September 2002 Risk measurement for oil and gas exploration: the marriage of geological and financial techniques Thomas Stauffer The prospects for the oil sector in the Iraqi economy after sanctions Imad Jabir Energy use and GDP growth, 1950 97 Rögnvaldur Hannesson Oil price movements and globalisation: is there a connection? Robert Looney June 2002 Oil outlook to 2020 Rezki Lounnas and Garry Brennand Short-term forecasting of non-opec supply a statistical analysis S.M.R. Tayyebi Jazayeri and A. Yahyai Using non-time-series to determine supply elasticity: how far do prices change the Hubbert curve? Douglas B. Reynolds A simple economic analysis of electricity deregulation failure Ferdinand E. Banks March 2002 Short-term forecasting of non-opec supply: a test of seasonality and seasonal decomposition S.M.R. Tayyebi Jazayeri and A. Yahyai Evidence that the terms of petroleum contracts influence the rate of development of oil fields Mustafa Bakar Muhmud and Alex Russell Stimulation of investment in international energy through Nigerian tax exemption laws Uche Jack Osimiri Energy indicators OPEC Secretariat December 2001 Oil outlook to 2020 Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Rezki Lounnas and Garry Brennand OPEC oil production and market fundamentals: a causality relationship Atmane Dahmani and Mahmoud H. Al-Osaimy Oil demand in North America: 1980 2020 Salman Saif Ghouri The price of natural gas A.M. Samsam Bakhtiari September 2001 What have we learned from the experience of low oil prices? A.F. Alhajji The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices Jorge Barros Luis The economics of an efficient reliance of biomass, carbon capture and carbon sequestration in a Kyoto-style emissions control environment Gary W. Yohe The geopolitics of natural gas in Asia Gawdat Bahgat June 2001 Has the accuracy of energy projections in OECD countries improved since the 1970s? Jan Bentzen and Hans Linderoth Oil product consumption in OPEC Member Countries: a comparison of trends and structures Atmane Dahmani Oil and macroeconomic fluctuations in Ecuador François Boye Energy indicators OPEC Secretariat March 2001 Estimating oil product demand in Indonesia using a cointegrating error correction model Carol Dahl and Kurtubi The gas dimension in the Iraqi oil industry Thamir Abbas Ghadhban and Saadallah Al-Fathi The Russian coal industry in transition: a linear programming application Bo Jonsson and Patrik Söderholm The future of gaseous fuels in Hong Kong Larry Chuen-ho Chow December 2000 Global energy outlook: an oil price scenario analysis Shokri Ghanem, Rezki Lounnas and Garry Brennand The hybrid permit cum price ceiling policy proposal: intuition from the prices versus quantities literature Gary W. Yohe World oil reserves: problems in definition and estimation Ghazi M. Haider A vector autoregressive analysis of an oildependent emerging economy Nigeria O. Felix Ayadi. Amitava Chatterjee and C. Pat Obi The closure of European nuclear power plants: a commercial opportunity for the gasproducing countries Jean-Pierre Pauwels and Carine Swartenbroekx People requiring copies of these papers, or the issues in which they appear, should contact the Managing Editor, OPEC Review, at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna.
December 2002 New energy technologies: trends in the development of clean and efficient energy technologies by Adnan Shihab-Eldin 2002, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries This is a reprint of a paper published in the December 2002 issue of the OPEC Review, which was compiled at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Opinions expressed in the OPEC Review are the authors own and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the policies or views of the bodies they represent, or of OPEC.
December 2002 Oil and macroeconomic fluctuations in Mexico by François Boye 2002, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries This is a reprint of a paper published in the December 2002 issue of the OPEC Review, which was compiled at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Opinions expressed in the OPEC Review are the authors own and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the policies or views of the bodies they represent, or of OPEC.
December 2002 Energy indicators by OPEC Secretariat 2002, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries This is a reprint of a paper published in the December 2002 issue of the OPEC Review, which was compiled at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Opinions expressed in the OPEC Review are the authors own and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the policies or views of the bodies they represent, or of OPEC.
December 2002 OPEC official statements by OPEC Secretariat 2002, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries This is a reprint of a paper published in the December 2002 issue of the OPEC Review, which was compiled at the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Opinions expressed in the OPEC Review are the authors own and should not be construed as necessarily reflecting the policies or views of the bodies they represent, or of OPEC.
Submissions of papers to the OPEC Review The OPEC Review is a quarterly energy journal prepared by the OPEC Secretariat in Vienna. Each issue consists of a selection of original research papers on economic issues affecting the global energy industry and related topics, such as Third World development and the environment. The principal objective of the OPEC Review is to broaden awareness of these issues, enhancing scholarship in universities, research institutes and other centres of learning. The scope is international. The criteria for publication in the OPEC Review are that the material is the product of research in an area of interest and value to the readership, and that it is presented in an objective and balanced manner. Submission of a paper will be held to imply that it contains original, unpublished work and is not being submitted for publication elsewhere. Manuscripts are evaluated by referees. Submissions should be made to: Editor-in-Chief, OPEC Review, OPEC Secretariat, Obere Donaustrasse 93, 1020 Vienna, Austria (tel. +43 1 211 12; fax. +43 1 214 98 27). Abstracts of up to 150 words should be included. In the covering letter, or on a separate sheet, the following details of the principal author should be given: full name (and, if different, desired name for publication purposes), title, affiliation, full postal address and telephone and fax numbers. Similar details should be provided for all co-authors, although they need not include telephone and fax numbers. Copyright in published papers rests with the OPEC Review; the OPEC Review will not refuse any reasonable request by authors to reproduce their contributions to the journal. Manuscripts should be written in clear English, typed double-spaced, on one side of the paper only, and not exceed 8,000 words. Tables and figures should carry titles, relate directly to the text and be easily comprehensible. Where possible, camera-ready artwork should be provided for figures. Mathematical expressions should be clearly presented, with equations numbered. Footnotes should be indicated in the text consecutively, with superscript numbers, and should be explained either at the bottom of each page or in a list at the end of the text. Reference citations in the text should be by last name(s) of author (s) and date (for joint authorship of three or more names, the words et al should be inserted after the first name); references should be spelt out and listed in alphabetical order at the end of the paper (after the footnote listings). For more details of style, please refer to this or another recent issue of the OPEC Review. The OPEC Review is prepared using principally Adobe PageMaker on PCs. In addition to their supplying regular hard copies, authors are encouraged to submit their papers by email (prid@opec.org) or on 3 1 /2-inch diskette, preferably in a popular word-processing programme, such as Microsoft Word or Corel WordPerfect, backed up in ASCII format if possible. Diskette labels should contain the title of the paper (abbreviated, if necessary), the principal author's name, the software used and the date of submission. Fifteen free offprints of each published paper, as well as one complimentary copy per author of the issue containing the paper, will be sent to principal authors (or, where specified and with numbers adjusted accordingly, to individual authors of joint papers). Notes for authors