Media Times Fortnightly update on Indian media and entertainment industry Abneesh Roy +91-22-6620 3141 abneesh.roy@edelcap.com Sharad Todi, CFA +91-22-6623 3481 sharad.todi@edelcap.com December 08, 2008
Contents Key highlights/developments hli ht l t TV broadcasting Print Print and radio promotion on TV Hair care ads on TV Newsprint prices Multiplexes/movies Movie pipeline, reviews and box office collections Radio Performance of radio channels in different geographies Internet Top daily page views Forthcoming events Outlook and top picks: Zee Entertainment, Zee News, PVR Performance of media stocks 2
Key highlights/developments Broadcasting/TV content GRP rating pushes Zee TV to second position with 102 GRPs, ahead of Star Plus with 98 GRPs. Colors continues at the top with 124 GRPs. IBN18 Broadcast (IBN18) is raising INR 1.14 bn through qualified institutional placement (QIP) as part of its plans to take its stake in Viacom18 to 50%. Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (Tdsat) has directed sports broadcaster ESPN to provide its signals to Chennai-based DTH operator Sun Direct at 50% of analogue cable rates and also on a la carte basis. Delhi HC stays criminal proceedings; ESPN to comply with Trai pricing for DTH. Taj Television, owners of Ten Sports, has won the exclusive production and telecast rights for all international cricket tours of Pakistan for USD 141 mn. Big TV channel rollout on hold as are most broadcasters plans: Firms are putting new launches, expansion on hold indefinitely, and are trimming existing offerings and staff. TV18 to up stake in IBN18 to 21% by subscribing to 15 mn warrants of IBN18, which are to be allotted on preferential basis and would be convertible into equity shares of IBN18 at INR 102 per share. Colors launched Uttaran on 1 December replacing reality show Bigg Boss 2 Four-fold increase in Hindi news channel ratings. Colors inks syndication deal with UTV for 27 movies. 3
Key highlights/developments Colors to beef up weekends with launch of two reality shows. ICAI gets offers for TV channel venture. Sun TV shares in limelight after Marans patch up with Karunanidhi. Benchmarking ad rates, getting value for money: Invoice sharing is actually a manifestation of deeper, age-old issues between clients and their agencies. Trai to issue recommendations on media ownership within a month. Zee News inks content deal with Voice of America. HomeShop18 to launch two shows to fight recession - Mid Price Cut and Shop999 both shows will offer products at discounted prices. Filmy unveils December film festival line-up - an initiative which is a mix of programming and movies from both Bollywood and Hollywood. Neo Cik Cricket ropes in five sponsors for India-England d Test series. HDFC to launch new life insurance campaign. Miss World 2008 LIVE on Zee Café. Cricket ad spots take a beating. I&B asks news channels to avoid re-runs of Mumbai terror attack. Punit Goenka to play bigger role in Zeel, ZNL synergy. Zee Next planning to make a comeback. News channels hit record viewership in terror week. DMK arms itself with news channel floated by Kalaignar TV. 4
Key highlights/developments TV distribution Reliance Communications direct-to-home (DTH) service provider Big TV claimed on Monday that it has crossed 1 mn subscriber mark within 90 days of launch. Suzlon promoters pick up 49% in You Telecom's cable TV venture. TRAI seeks quality norms for non-cas cable TV. I&B wants cable industry to be on a par with telecom over infrastructure. Arun Kapoor joins Essel Group as director, distribution biz. Print Sakaal's plan for national footprint loses steam. Domestic newsprint prices soften, international prices expected to follow suit. Movie production/distribution Sun Network to produce 10 Tamil films a year. UTV's 'Oye Lucky' grosses INR 46 mn in opening week. Subhash Ghai increased stake in Mukta Arts. T-Series releases Flashbacks of a Fool on DVD; Excel Home Videos releases Wall-E on DVD. 5
Key highlights/developments Exhibition Theatres may lose INR 0.2 mn a day in ticket sales due to terror attacks in Mumbai; repercussions felt in multiplexes in other cities too. Radio Government looking to allow up to 49% FDI in FM radio. Trai changes gear, accepts government view on not allowing news on FM radio. The sector regulator, however, recommended that a review for expansion of sources may be considered after three years. HT Media (HTML) to demerge radio biz from subsidiary and merge it with itself. Merger of the loss-making radio business with profit-making HTML will help save taxes up to INR 340 mn, a source in the company told Indiantelevision.com. Radio Misty FM would soon be on air in Sikkim. 6
Key highlights/developments Outdoor/internet/other Reliance Money has launched its e-commerce web portal www.reliancemoneymall.com, to be a part of the INR 200 bn market. It will offer online range of financial products to its customers. Redstone exits from Midway Games - sold its controlling stake in the video-games publishing company Midway Games to restructure the debt and avoid dilution of the family s 70% stake in Viacom. HCL launches workstations for media, gaming and animation industry - Infiniti Challenger Series range of workstations based on Intel Core i7 Quad core processor. The workstations have a four-core eight-thread design. ibibo.com launches 'ivideostar' to showcase dancing talent. Mercedes-Benz unveils its AMG range in India Mauj Mobile partners with FHM for mobile content. 7
Print and radio channel promotion on TV Print promotion on TV Print media promotion on TV increased 27% between January October 2008, Y-o-Y. More than 60% of print promotion was done on regional channels with maximum contribution coming from Tamil Nadu, followed by Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. Top 5 publication houses contributed 50% to promotion spends, led by Malayala Manorama, KS Publications, and Deccan Chronicle. Radio promotion on TV Radio promotion decreased 21% between January October 2008, Y-o-Y. 88% of radio promotions were done on regional channels with Delhi accounting for the lion s share, followed by Kerala and West Bengal. Top 5 advertisers contributed to more than 90% of promotion spends, led by Living Media, HT Music and AsiaNet Network. 8
Hair care ads on TV Hair care promotional spends on TV witnessed a 22% Y-o-Y Y growth during January October 2008. More than 50% of the advertisements are on national channels; West Bengal led the regional pie with 20% share, followed by Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh with 17% and 16% share, respectively. Shampoos contributed 55% to total expenditure, followed by hair oils with 17% and hair dyes with 10%. Shampoos also ranked as the fastest growing advertising category with 66% growth, followed by hair oils with 25% and hair wash powder with 17%. HUL was the top advertiser, followed by P&G, Marico, L Oreal, and ITC. 9
Radio City leads in Mumbai Source: Industry, Edelweiss research As per latest RAM reports, Radio City leads in Mumbai, followed by Red FM. Radio City has a market share of 20%, Red FM 18%, Big FM 15%, and Radio Mirchi 12%. Primetime still remains devoid of a clear leader. Morning hours remain most important for radio channels, particularly in a city like Mumbai. 10
Radio Mirchi: Leader in 3 out of 4 RAM markets Station Cumes( 000s) Delhi Radio Mirchi 98.3 5,029 Big FM 92.7 2,946 Source: RAM Wk 47 All SEC 12 + Kolkata Radio Mirchi 4,886 Big FM 4,342 Friends FM 3,096 Source: RAM Wk 47 All SEC 12 + Bengaluru Radio Mirchi 98.3 1,268 Big FM 92.7 1,219 S FM 93.5 1,083 Source: RAM Wk 47 SEC ABC 12 to 44 Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Radio Mirchi has emerged as the leader in Kolkata, Bengaluru, and New Delhi in week 47, as per latest RAM survey. Radio Mirchi reaches out to 16 mn listeners in four RAM markets - unmatched by any other radio network. The station, along with being the preferred choice of listeners, is also the preferred station for advertisers. 11
Relative viewership share of genres on TV in CY08 Channel Past 4 weeks 45 46 Gain/Loss Hindi General Entertainment 21.5 18.7 14.9 (3.9) South Regional Channels 18.9 18.9 18.0 (0.9) Hindi Movie Channels 11.1 12.6 10.8 (1.8) Sports Channels 5.2 4.8 5.6 0.7 Kids Channels 5.0 5.1 5.1 (0.1) Hindi News Channels 4.4 4.5 10.4 5.9 Music Channels 1.8 1.8 1.6 (0.2) English Movie Channels 0.8 0.8 0.7 (0.1) Infotainment t Channels 0.8 08 0.9 09 0.8 08 (0.1) English News Channels 0.5 0.5 1.2 0.7 English Business News Channels 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 Hindi Business News Channels 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 English Entertainment Channels 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 Others - including other regional channels 29.3 30.6 30.33 (0.3) Source: Industry, Edelweiss research (%) The share of Hindi GECs and South regional channels decreased. Absence of fresh content was the main reason behind a fall in viewership of Hindi GECs. Terror attacks in Mumbai are a key reason for an increase in viewership of news channels. Particularly, Hindi news channels witnessed significant rise in their viewership. 12
Hindi GEC genre: Viewership share 45 Vie ewership (%) 36 27 18 9 0 W W W W W W W W W W W W 1 8 eek 15 eek 22 eek 29 eek 36 eek 43 eek 50 5 eek 12 eek 19 eek 26 eek 33 eek 40 eek 47 Star Plus Zee TV Sony Colors Sahara One Star One Sab Star Utsav DD1 9X NDTV Imagine Zee Next Source: Industry, Edelweiss research In week 48, Balika Vadhu and Jai Shri Krishna, which were the top 2 GEC programs, clocked TVRs of 2.7 and 2.6, respectively. Highest TVR of 2.9 was recorded by the fifth ODI between India and England. Colors has reached the top spot with a viewership share of 17.2%, with Zee TV and Star Plus following with 14.1% and 13.5%, respectively. Colors had three programmes in top 5 in week 48, whereas Zee TV had one. 13
Hindi GEC genre: Recent trend in GRPs 330 282 234 186 138 90 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Star Plus Zee TV Colors Source: Industry, Edelweiss research In week 48, Star Plus reported 98 GRPs, whereas Zee TV reported 102 GRPs. Colors maintained the lead by reporting 124 GRPs. GRPs of Hindi GECs took a beating because no fresh content was aired and the overall genre viewership decreased 3.9%. 14
Top 10 programs for week 48 Top 10 shows for week 48 Channel Programme TVR Neo Cricket Hero Honda-08 3rd ODI ENG/IND 3.5 Colors Bigg Boss Season 2-Jumbo Final 3.2 Neo Cricket Hero Honda-08 3nd ODI ENG/IND 2.7 Sun TV Thirumathi Selvam 2.5 MAX Koi Mil Gaya - Hindi Movie 2.3 Sun TV Kolangal 2.3 Colors Balika Vadhu 2.1 Sun TV Arasi 20 2.0 Colors Bigg Boss Season 2 2.0 Zee TV Sa Re Ga Ma Pa Challenge 2009 1.9 Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Cricket overtook Hindi GEC programs in a period when no fresh episodes were being aired. In week 48, Colors had three programs and Zee TV hadoneprogram in top 10. Star Plus did not feature at all in the top 10 list. 15
Number of programs in top 100 in GEC space Programmes) (No. of 60 48 36 24 12 0 1 4 7 We eek 10 We eek 13 We eek 16 We eek 19 We eek 22 Star Plus Sun TV Zee TV Colors Source: Industry, Edelweiss research We eek 25 We eek 28 We eek 31 We eek 34 We eek 37 We eek 40 We eek 43 We eek 46 Star Plus Zee TV Colors Best of Nach Sa Re Ga Ma Pa Big Boss - Season 2 - Baliye Challenge 2009 Jumbo Final Sai Baba Aur Pyar Ho Gaya Balika Vadhu Baa Bahoo aur Anari - Hindi Movie Big Boss - Season 2 Baby Shararat Chota Packet Bada Jai Shri Krishna Dhamaka Nayak - Hindi Movie Balika Vadhu - Ab Tak Ki Kahani Bandhan Saat Janmon Ka Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Sun TV currently has the maximum number in top 100 on account of fragmentation in Hindi GECs and recent stoppage of airing of fresh content. Star Plus and Zee TV have seen significant decrease in the number of programs in top 100. Colors has 6 programs in top 100 compared with five of Star Plus and four of Zee TV. Zee TV has ascended to the No. 2 position after Colors in the Hindi GEC genre, but we would wait for the channel to stabilize its position before acknowledging this rise. 16
Hindi movies genre: Viewership share 70 56 Viewe ership (%) 42 28 14 0 eek 1 eek 8 ek 15 ek 22 ek 29 ek 36 ek 43 ek 50 eek 5 ek 12 ek 19 ek 26 ek 33 ek 40 ek 47 W W We We We We We We W We We We We We We Max Zee Cinema Star Gold Filmy B4U Movies UTV Movies Zee Action Zee Classic Zee Premier Manoranjan TV Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Excluding cricket matches on Set Max, the competition between Zee Cinema and Set Max has been stiff; both have been fighting for the No. 1 spot. Zee Cinema lost the No.1 position due to a decline in its viewership share, and had two programs in top 5 in week 48. Set Max, which had three programs in the top 5, reached the No. 1 position and saw an improvement in its viewership share. New movie channels have been included in the list namely, Zee Classic, Zee Action, Zee Premier, Manoranjan TV. 17
Hindi news genre: Viewership share 30 Viewership (%) 24 18 12 6 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 Star News Aaj Tak India TV Zee News IBN 7 NDTV India TEZ Sahara Samay National DD News Live India News 24 India News Voice of India Source: Industry, Edelweiss research 5 12 19 26 33 40 47 In week 48, Aaj Tak maintained its No.1 position and had four programs in top 5. India TV regained slipped to No.3 position and had no programs in top 5. Star News, at 2 nd position, had one program in the list. Stiff competition persists among the top 3 players. 18
English news genre: Viewership share 48.0 ership (%) 38.4 28.8 19.2 9.6 0.0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 5 12 19 26 33 40 47 view NDTV 24x7 Times Now CNN IBN Headlines today News X Source: Industry, Edelweiss research In week 48, Times Now reached the top position. It had two programs in top 5, whereas NDTV 24x7 was the No.2 player with two programs. CNN-IBN slipped to the No.3 position. 19
Business news genre: Viewership share English Hindi 80 90 64 72 48 32 16 54 36 18 viewership (%) viewership (%) 0 0 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 5 12 19 26 33 40 47 1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 5 12 19 26 33 40 47 CNBC - TV18 NDTV-Profit UTVi Awaaz Zee Business Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Source: Industry, Edelweiss research The viewership gap between CNBC-TV 18 and NDTV Profit, which had widened over the past few weeks, narrowed in week 47. In week 48, all top 5 programs were on CNBC TV18. UTVi s market share has shown strong improvement. The viewership gap between CNBC Awaaz and Zee Business has started widening. However, all five programs in top 5 were by CNBC Awaaz. 20
Sports genre: Viewership share 90 72 viewe ership (%) 54 36 18 0 Wee ek 1 Wee ek 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 Wee ek 5 12 19 26 33 40 47 Star Sports Ten Sports ESPN DD Sports Zee Sports Neo Cricket Neo Sports Star Cricket Source: Industry, Edelweiss research Neo Sports has maintained its No.1 position in the sports genre. It has been able to maintain its share due to the India v/s England cricket series telecast. Zee Sports viewership has come down after the ICL tournament completed. 21
Newsprint prices Canadian newsprint (CIF Mumbai, USD) 1,000 Domestic and international prices (INR) 55,000 900 47,000 /tonne) (USD 800 700 (INR/to onne) 39,000 31,000 600 23,000 500 15,000 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-97 Oct-97 Apr-98 Oct-98 Apr-99 9 Oct-99 9 Apr-00 0 Oct-00 0 Apr-01 Oct-01 Apr-02 Oct-02 Apr-03 Oct-03 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Newsprint Prices Domestic Newsprint Canadian Newsprint Source: Crisil research Source: Crisil research Newsprint costs have risen significantly in the past ten months due to consolidation in millsintheus,higherdemandduetoprintmedia-intensive events, and appreciation of the Canadian dollar against USD. Domestic newsprint has corrected from INR 38,000/tonne to INR 31,000/tonne in November 08. We expect international prices to correct shortly. 22
Strong pipeline of movies Date Banner/Prodcuer Cast 12-Dec-08 Rab Ne Bana Di Jodi Yash Raj Films Shah Rukh Khan, Anushka Sharma, Kajol, Rani Mukharjee, Wafaa True Life Production Rajesh Khanna, Sudesh Berry 19-Dec-08 Kaashh Mere Hote Shravan Films International Anupam Kher, Sneha Ullal, Kumar Saahil KhallBali One More Thought Entertainment Pvt. Ltd. Chunky Pandey, Rajpal Yadav, Suresh Menon 25-Dec-08 Ghajini Allu Arvind, Madhu Varma Aamir Khan, Asin, Jiah Khan Jumbo Percept Picture Company Akshay Kumar Source: Industry, Edelweiss research 23
Recent box office collections and movie ratings Collections till date Film Domestic net total (INR) Domestic Gross Total (INR) USA gross (USD) UK gross (GBP) Yuvvraaj 1 111,496,328 159,435,724 264,362 112,688 Dostana (2008) 2 410,558,057 584,577,629 985,433 681,663 Fashion (2008) 4 285,792,035 409,964,508 Golmaal Returns 4 510,120,132 766,034,593 300,000 354,790 Dasvidaniya 2 11,601,717 16,823,004 Desh Drohee 2 7,191,990 10,929,892 Ek Vivaah Aisa Bhi 3 23,130,723 33,184,472 5,000 A Wednesday 12 113,102,459 163,034,814 Emi 3 46,586,582 67,693,551 30,000 Roadside Romeo 5 47,517,719 68,580,875 40,000 70,500 Source: Industry, Edelweiss research as on November 16, 2008 Movie ratings by newspapers and web portals Movie Max Payne Rocknrolla Oye Lucky! Lucky Oye! Sorry Bhai! Dil Kabaddi Maharathi Meerabai Not Out Oh, My God!! Burn After Reading Transporter 3 Times of India 3/5 n/a 3.5/5 3.5/5 2/5 3.5/5 2/5 1.5/5 3/5 3/5 Hindustan Times 2/5 2.5/5 3.5/5 2/5 2.5/5 2/5 2/5 1/5 3.5/5 2.5/5 Rediff 2.5/5 3/5 3/5 3/5 2.5/5 2/5 2/5 2/5 3.5/5 2.5/5 CNN-IBN 1/5 n/a 3/5 3/5 2/5 2/5 1/5 n/a 3/5 n/a Source: Industry, Edelweiss research 24
Web portals: Trend of daily page views Source: Alexa, Edelweiss research 25
Key forthcoming events Broadcasting ZNL is planning to launch a new channel in Andhra Pradesh. Reliance ADA Group plans to launch 20 channels to supplement its DTH venture, Big TV. Raj TV is planning to launch news channels in Telugu, Kannada and Malayalam. TV9 to launch five news and entertainment channels. INX Media plans to rollout 10 channels by FY10E. Print International newsprint prices are expected to correct shortly. Exhibition PVR to commence operations at its Phoenix Mills multiplex shortly. Distribution FDI cap in DTH and HITS may rise to 74% from 49% (current). Launch of DTH services by Videocon. 26
Outlook and top picks: ZEEL, ZNL, PVR Outlook Television broadcasting: We remain bullish on the broadcasting segment of the industry. Even though we expect slowdown in ad-spends going forward, such an event is temporary and caused by overall business slowdown. We believe ad-spends on TV medium in the country will be robust over the long term and the current environment provides an opportunity to build positions with the leaders in this space. Moreover, subscription revenues from digital cable formats will be a key driving factor going g forward. Print: Domestic newsprint prices have corrected and we expect international newsprint to follow suit. Strong correlation between newsprint prices and crude indicates a downturn in newsprint prices. This is extremely positive for print media companies for whom newsprint costs constitute roughly half of their revenues. Any softening in international newsprint prices will be regarded positively by the market. We do not have a recommendation on print stocks. Movie exhibition: Multiplex companies continue to grapple with slow rollout of screens and dipping occupancy due to fragmentation, high ticket prices, and security threats. PVR is the industry leader in the exhibition business and has also made its presence felt in the movie production field. Top picks: ZEEL, ZNL, PVR 27
Zee Entertainment Enterprises: Very attractive Accumulate Price: INR 116, Mkt. Cap: INR 50.4 bn / USD 1016 mn Investment theme The flagship channel, Zee TV, is a strong No.3 player in the GEC segment and is still ahead of Colors in terms of share of Top 100 programmes. However, in the current week the channel has ascended to No.2 position but needs to maintain itself there. Zee Cinema is the leader in the Hindi movie genre with 30% market share. ZEEL has now launched 3 more movie channels namely Zee Action, Zee Premier, and Zee Classic. Owing to digitalisation, broadcasters share in subscription revenues is expected to improve. Near-term triggers Strong growth in DTH revenues. Ventured into film production business through its subsidiary Zee Entertainment Studios. Key risks Slowdown in economy, which could lower advertising spends. Increase in competitive activity leading to higher costs, new channel launches. ZEEL - Financials Year to March FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Revenues (INR mn) 15,159 18,354 22,621 25,683 Rev. growth (%) (8.4) 21.1 23.3 13.5 EBITDA (INR mn) 3,204 5,423 6,283 7,363 Net profit (INR mn) 2,375 3,833 5,506 5,055 Share outstanding (mn) 434 434 435 435 EPS (INR) 5.5 8.9 9.5 11.6 EPS growth (%) 11.9 62.4 73 7.3 22.1 P/E (x) 21.3 13.1 12.2 10.0 EV/EBITDA (x) 16.0 9.4 8.0 6.7 ROAE (%) 10.0 14.1 13.4 14.3 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 28
Zee News: Capturing regional media boom Buy Investment theme Price: INR 30, Mkt. Cap: INR 7.2 bn / USD 146 mn Preferred play on regional media boom: ZNL has an attractive bouquet of 12 channels in regional and news genres that form 37% of the total ad pie. Pay model and DTH to drive subscription revenues: Has eight pay channels. Packaging of ZNL channels with Zee TV (owns WWIL and Dish TV) will boost ZNL s pay revenues. Near-term triggers Franchisee model: ZNL has ventured into the news consulting business to provide operational and strategic advice on a BOT basis to launch news channels. Transfer of movie businesses from ZEEL: ZEEL is transferring its Marathi movie channel to ZNL. Key risks Star s venture in regional space: However, ZNL s planned launches in new markets will take care of any hit on revenues due to launch of channels by Star. ZNL - Financials Year to March FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Revenues (INR mn) 2,405 3,675 5,105 6,154 Rev. growth (%) 570.6 52.8 38.9 20.6 EBITDA (INR mn) 77 678 874 1,169 Net profit (INR mn) 75 371 464 627 Share outstanding (mn) 240 240 240 240 Diluted EPS (INR) 0.3 1.5 1.9 2.6 EPS growth (%) 461.9 396.33 25.0 35.2 Diluted P/E (x) 96.8 19.5 15.6 11.5 EV/EBITDA (x) 93.9 10.9 8.5 6.3 ROAE (%) 4.2 19.1 20.8 23.8 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 29
PVR: Good going Buy Investment theme We expect the screen count to go up to 140 by FY10E. Price: INR 65, Mkt. Cap: INR 1.5 bn / USD 30.2 mn Successful in taking hikes in its ATP (average ticket price) and SPH (spends per head) over the years. Effective e-tax expected to decline as many multiplexes are coming up in states which have e-tax exemptions, and reduction of e-tax to 20% from 30% in Delhi. Increasing share of ad revenues to the total revenue pie is positive as it flows directly to EBITDA. Two out of the three co-produced movies (Taare Zameen Par and Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na) have done exceptionally well at the box office. Near-term triggers Strong movie line up in coming quarters; Opening of PVR s Phoenix Mills multiplex. Key risks Delays in rollout of multiplexes and over capacities in certain pockets leading to lower occupancies. PVR - Financials Year to March FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E Revenues (INR mn) 1,777 2,659 3,521 4,604 Rev. growth (%) 69.4 49.6 32.4 30.8 EBITDA (INR mn) 274 489 577 777 Net profit (INR mn) 102 216 221 278 Share outstanding (mn) 23 23 24 24 Diluted EPS (INR) 4.0 8.8 9.0 11.5 EPS growth (%) 92.6 122.0 2.8 27.4 Diluted P/E (x) 16.5 7.4 7.2 5.7 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.6 4.9 4.5 3.9 ROAE (%) 5.1 10.9 9.6 10.5 Source: Company, Edelweiss research 30
Valuations Media stocks: Valuations CMP M. Cap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) MCap/Sales (x) Company Ratings (INR) (INR mn) FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E PVR Buy 65 1,497 7.4 7.2 5.7 4.9 2.3 2.2 0.6 0.4 0.3 Zee News Buy 30 7,229 19.5 15.6 11.5 10.8 8.8 6.4 2.0 1.4 1.2 Zee Entertainment Enterprise Accumulate 116 50,409 13.1 12.2 10.0 9.2 7.8 6.4 2.7 2.2 2.0 TV Today Network Accumulate 66 3,837 8.88 8.1 6.9 3.6 2.7 1.8 1.7 1.3 1.11 Television Eighteen India* Accumulate 65 7,791 85.5 21.1 19.4 4.5 4.3 4.5 2.0 2.2 1.9 Fame India Reduce 15 527 3.7 159.8 11.7 6.7 7.2 6.3 0.6 0.3 0.3 Inox Leisure Reduce 29 1,801 6.9 10.1 7.9 4.7 5.2 4.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 Deccan Chronicle Not Rated 44 10,762 4.0 5.4 4.2 1.8 2.5 2.0 1.4 1.2 1.0 Media stocks: Performance (% change) * FY08 are consolidated and estimates are of news business only Source: Edelweiss research Company CMP 1 1Month 3Months 6Months 12Months Fame India 15 2.7 (12.4) (62.7) (71.5) (85.5) Zee Entertainment Enterprise 116 6.6 (18.5) (48.6) (48.3) (61.0) PVR 65 (3.3) (32.7) (66.8) (65.0) (78.8) Inox Leisure 29 (12.7) (26.1) (64.9) (69.2) (81.2) Deccan Chronicle Holdings 44 2.9 (3.3) (64.4) (60.8) (79.7) Television Eighteen India 65 8.5 (14.0) (73.4) (77.1) (86.4) TV Today Network 66 23.8 3.8 (30.1) (31.7) (63.1) Zee News 30 11.5 (17.3) (35.4) (42.4) (60.6) Entertainment Network India 108 (1.7) (20.5) (63.4) (72.1) (80.5) UTV Software Communications 233 12.2 (12.7) (71.1) (69.9) (77.4) HT Media 73 5.1 4.5 (41.6) (42.1) (67.5) Jagran Prakashan 49 (1.2) (2.9) (34.8) (30.7) (64.0) Sun TV Network 166 30.7 5.9 (28.6) (52.9) (55.3) Balaji Telefilms 66 11.1 (0.4) (60.9) (65.5) (81.3) Dish TV India 16 6.9 (5.0) (59.1) (64.0) (83.2) Network 18 Media & Investments 100 (4.1) 7.1 (50.7) (49.2) (79.4) IBN 18 Broadcast 91 (13.8) (10.0) (18.6) (7.7) (52.3) Adlabs Films 163 7.3 (10.8) (68.5) (70.6) (85.8) Source: Edelweiss research 31
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