TREND INSIGHTS Is There Too Much TV, II: Unscripted Series Growing Popularity
Is There Too Much TV, II: Unscripted Series Growing Popularity A little more than a year ago, the research team at FX put out an intriguing chart that garnered a lot of attention. The headline: more than 400 scripted shows were competing for viewers attention, up from 181 in 2002. That number excluded, by definition, unscripted shows, from game and competition series to talk, news, sports and documentaries, among others. It also excluded daytime dramas, one-time specials, non-english language series and children s programs. If you count all genres of original programming, it s clear the number of choices increases dramatically. At the time, FX President John Landgraf predicted the number of original scripted series would begin to decline in 2016 or 2017. Updated data (see the table below) shows the number of scripted TV series, following the same criteria, continued to grow, surpassing 450 in 2016. Whatever the final tally for 2017 will turn out to be, we re continuing to see new entrants in the scripted space, including National Geographic, which is about to premiere its first scripted show, Genius. 2 TRENDS INSIGHTS
FX Research: Estimated Number of Scripted Original Series Estimated Number of Scripted Original Series Broadcast, Cable & Online Services 421 455 210 1 122 21 44 216 4 113 25 74 266 6 116 33 111 288 15 119 29 125 349 24 131 33 161 389 46 32 150 148 34 34 175 188 93 145 36 181 Basic Cable Pay Cable Broadcast Online 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 The number of original scripted TV shows has been steadily increasing each year. In 2016 there were 455 scripted programs, an all-time high, and an increase of +34 from 2015. The number of programs has more than doubled since 2010 when there were 216. The number of programs has grown +137% since 2006 when there were 192 shows. The biggest increase was the online services programs doubled from 2015 to 2016. With 181 there are more programs on basic cable than any other platform. Over the past five years the number of original programs on basic cable grew by +63% & broadcast shows increased by +25%. Led by streaming services, FX estimates there coul be 500 progrmas on TV next year. Source: Estimated Count by FX Networks as of 12/14/2016 culled from Nielsen, Online Services, Futon Critic, Wikipedia, Epguides et.al Broadcast includes PBS; Basic Cable includes DIRECTV; Online Services = Amazon Prime, Crackle, Hulu, LouisCK.net, Netflix, Playstation, Seeso, Vimeo & YouTube Red Excludes library, daytime dramas, one-episode specials, non-english language, children s programs & short-form content (< 15 mins). Includes recently produced imports TRENDS INSIGHTS 3
How much elasticity remains in the scripted space may be open to some debate, but there are signs the unscripted space is also poised for sizable expansion. Alongside shows on cable new, returning and revived (hello, again, Trading Spaces and Cash Cab, among others) and broadcast, over-the-top and digital platforms are getting into the game in big ways. Netflix, for instance, plans 20 new unscripted series, comprising a sizable piece of the company s plan to double its original programming output. As Cinemablend.com reported, that focus on unscripted content announced late last year marked a turnaround from 2015, when Netflix noted it wasn t looking at reality series. 1 Netflix may find itself with plenty of company. BuzzFeed has a food series airing on Facebook and YouTube. Now in its second season, the show is among 31 currently in development or production, reports Digiday. 2 Those shows may air across a variety of platforms, including Comcast s Watchable, while some other content appears on a single platform or service. Nevertheless, it underscores the opportunities publishers are seeing in original content. Another multiplatform publisher expanding its content output is Vice Media. Already the force behind the Viceland network (and programs on HBO), Vice Media will be producing original series exclusively for Snapchat. 3 The shows in development will include scripted and unscripted programs (and as short-form programs, the scripted shows would not be included under the criteria FX has applied). Speaking of Snapchat and BuzzFeed, those platforms recently announced an agreement with NBCUniversal that will have BuzzFeed co-produce content on the Snapchat Discover platform from the 2018 Olympic Winter Games. 4 Facebook has also discussed plans to delve more heavily into the original video content space. Expanding from content partnerships with platforms like, well, BuzzFeed again, the company is developing plans for original scripted and unscripted video, leading with short-form content out of the gate. 5 Whatever may happen with individual shows, it s clear that the trend is towards delivering more content on more platforms. That s ultimately good for consumers, offering more choices and opportunities to experience and enjoy relevant video. Sources: 1 Cinemablend.com, December 2016 2 Digiday, March 16, 2017 3 Fortune.com, March 14, 2017 4 Variety.com, March 29, 2017 5 HollywoodReporter.com, February 1, 2017 4 TRENDS INSIGHTS
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