NUTS AND BOLTS FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

NUTS AND BOLTS FOR THE SOCIAL SCIENCES

Nuts and Bolts for the Social Sciences JON ELSTER CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY PRESS

cambridge university press Cambridge, New York, Melbourne, Madrid, Cape Town, Singapore, São Paulo, Delhi, Dubai, Tokyo, Mexico City Cambridge University Press 32 Avenue of the Americas, New York ny 10013-2473, USA Information on this title: /9780521376068 1989 This publication is in copyright. Subject to statutory exception and to the provisions of relevant collective licensing agreements, no reproduction of any part may take place without the written permission of Cambridge University Press. First published 1989 15th printing 2006 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloguing in Publication Data Elster, Jon, 1940 Nuts and bolts for the social sciences /. p. cm. Bibliography: p. ISBN 0-521-37455-3 ISBN 0-521-37606-8 (pbk.) 1. Social sciences Methodology. 2. Social interaction. I. Title. H61.E434 1989 89-31449 300.1 dc20 CIP isbn 978-0-521-37455-2 Hardback isbn 978-0-521-37606-8 Paperback Cambridge University Press has no responsibility for the persistence or accuracy of URLs for external or third-party internet websites referred to in this publication, and does not guarantee that any content on such websites is, or will remain, accurate or appropriate. Information regarding prices, travel timetables, and other factual information given in this work is correct at the time of first printing but Cambridge University Press does not guarantee the accuracy of such information thereafter.

CONTENTS Preface and Acknowledgments page vii Part One Introduction I Mechanisms 3 Part Two Human Action II Desires and Opportunities 13 III Rational Choice 22 IV When Rationality Fails 30 V Myopia and Foresight 42 VI Selfishness and Altruism 52 VII Emotions 61 VIII Natural and Social Selection 71 IX Reinforcement 82 Part Three Interaction X Unintended Consequences 91 XI Equilibrium 101 XII Social Norms 113 XIII Collective Action 124 XIV Bargaining 135 XV Social Institutions 147 XVI Social Change 159 Bibliographical Essay 173 Index 183

PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS MANY years ago I read about a book by a nineteenthcentury German mathematician, Felix Klein, called Elementary Mathematics from an Advanced Standpoint. I never read it, but the title stuck in my mind. The present book could perhaps be subtitled Elementary Social Science from an Advanced Standpoint. Or should it be the other way around - advanced social science from an elementary standpoint? In that case, my model would be a short and wonderful book by Richard Feynman, QED, an introduction to quantum electrodynamics for the general public. The comparison is not as presumptuous as one might think. On the one hand, Feynman's ability to go to the core of a subject, without technicalities but also without loss of rigor, may be unsurpassed in the history of science and is in any case beyond mine. On the other, quantum electrodynamics is more arcane than any of the topics discussed here. On balance, therefore, the reader may find my exposition just as intelligible. The purpose of the book is reflected in its title: to introduce the reader to causal mechanisms that serve as the basic units of the social sciences. Though not a do-it-yourself kit, it might serve as a read-it-yourself kit for further study. The reader should be wary of the chapter on reinforcement, a topic about which I know little but which is too important to be neglected. I hope what I say is correct, but people who know more about it may find it superficial. A word about style. I have tried to avoidfloggingdead horses or belaboring the obvious; to be honest about the inevitable simplifications; to write simply and without jargon; to respect the reader's intelligence as well as his ignorance. I rely on examvn

Preface and Acknowledgments pies, diagrams and nontechnical expositions, since, with one exception, I don't think more is needed. The exception is the chapter on bargaining, which stands in the same relation to current research as a child's drawing to a photograph. My hope is that the other chapters are like impressionistic paintings, in which light and shade make up for lack of focus. The many footnotes serve several functions. Mainly, they are reminders that things are more complicated than the main text might suggest. They point to links between chapters that might otherwise not be noticed. Or they discuss paradoxes and curiosa of the sort that social scientists love, often to excess. "Elster" in German is "magpie," someone who steals other people's silver. Since there are no references to or mention of other people's work in the book, it may read as if all the ideas in it are my own. The Bibliographical Essay is intended partly to dispel that impression, partly to serve as a guide to further studies. Like some of my other books, this one began as lectures at the University of Chicago. I am indebted to my students for pushing me to the wall whenever they got the air of an ambiguity, inconsistency or downright error. I also thank George Ainslie, Ingrid Creppell, Stephen Holmes, Arthur Stinchcombe and Cass Sunstein for their comments on an earlier version. viu