Needham & Company. The Seventh Annual Needham Growth Conference

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Transcription:

Needham & Company The Seventh Annual Needham Growth Conference January 13, 2005 New York Palace Hotel New York City Bob Stanzione, Chairman & CEO Jim Bauer, VP Investor Relations

Safe Harbor Forward looking statements: The statements in this presentation that use such words as believe," "expect," "intend," "anticipate," "contemplate," "estimate," or "plan," or similar expressions are forward looking statements. Our business is dependent upon general economic conditions as well as competitive, technological, and regulatory developments and trends specific to our industry and customers. These conditions and events could be substantially different than we believe or expect and these differences may cause our actual results to differ materially from the forward looking statements we have made or the results which could be expected to accompany such statements. Specific factors which could cause such material differences include the following: the timing of the introduction and the performance factors of certain new ARRIS products, design or manufacturing defects in our products which could curtail sales and subject us to substantial costs for removal, replacement and reinstallation of such products; manufacturing or product development problems that we do not anticipate; an inability to absorb or adjust our costs in response to lower sales volumes than we anticipate; loss of key management, sales or technical employees; decisions by our larger customers to cancel contracts or orders as they are entitled to do or not to enter into new contracts or orders with us because of dissatisfaction, technological or competitive changes, changes in control or other reasons. Other risks involve capital spending levels by our customers based in part on demand for broadband services, customer adoption of our technologies and the development and marketing of technology by our competitors. The above listing of factors is representative of the factors which could affect our forward looking statements and is not intended as an all encompassing list of such factors. In providing forward looking statements we are not undertaking any obligation to update publicly or otherwise these statements, whether as result of new information, future events or otherwise. 2

ARRIS Overview

Who We Are. ARRIS is a leading global provider of broadband access solutions for delivery of converged voice, data and video services over HFC networks We help our customers create value primarily through Revenue Generating Unit (RGU) growth Two product categories Broadband 1 st generation cable telephony: Cornerstone Voice IP based network elements for converged data, voice & video: CMTS, Q5 DMTS Supplies & CPE DOCSIS CPE (E-MTAs, cable modems) TeleWire Supply (plant hardware) 4

What We Have Done. Established market leadership in broadband voice and data Undisputed leader in Cable Telephony with approaching 5M lines in service Strong market and technology position in DOCSIS Qualified CMTS for VoIP and high speed data Two DOCSIS 2.0 CMTS platforms Growing share of embedded base Top 5 operators worldwide have standardized on ARRIS E- MTAs - 3Q04 #1 market position worldwide (44% units) Ready for the all digital network market disruption moving to everything IP, everywhere. Building on DOCSIS experience Launched IP Video initiative 5

ARRIS 5-Point Growth Strategy... Transition to Everything IP Everywhere Lead the market with solutions that address The growing broadband internet access market The explosive VoIP market The emerging IP Video transport market The developing international markets Leverage our current voice and data business Fill out installed base of CBR voice telephony Establish large installed CMTS base for high speed data Strengthen and grow TeleWire Supply business Expand and/or fill gaps in our existing product and services portfolio through internal developments, partnerships and acquisitions Maintain and improve strong capital structure 6

Our Markets

ARRIS 2004 Worldwide Sales A Global Customer Base Canada Eastlink VCom Capella / Rogers Latin America VTR Chile BCD/Cablevision Argentina Megacable Mexico Liberty Puerto Rico Cable Bahamas Bahamas Plus 10 Others 8 United States Cox Comcast Time Warner Charter Insight Adelphia GCI Knology Susquehanna Grande Bright House Frankfort Black Hills Cebridge NCTC Plus 50 Others Over 66 operators, in 47 cities, in 28 countries, and growing Asia Jupiter Japan Synclayer Japan Commverge Korea Han Kook Korea Chengdu China OSI Plus Japan Plus 12 Others Europe UGC / Europe Multiple Countries Retecal Spain Cabovisao Portugal Essent Netherlands Accesscom Israel Telenet Belgium Laser GmbH Germany Plus 40 Others

ARRIS Market Environment. Increasing Competition from Telcos and Satellite will drive U.S. Cable Operator Spending for Faster Internet Access Carrier Grade Phone Service On-demand video Similar dynamics apply in a growing International market Aging network will require more maintenance The all digital IP based technology disruption is occurring : Data Voice Video ARRIS is Ready! 9

ARRIS Products Current and Future

ARRIS Telewire provides Products for existing Markets and for new Emerging Markets. Plant Maintenance & Construction Drop Emerging Markets Maintain/grow share Product cost reduction & margin improvement Value-added services Compete aggressively in this growth area Leverage ARRIS Broadband success with CBR and VoIP Leverage ARRIS Broadband business Anticipate MSO need for new RGUs Residential Commercial/SOHO Invest in new products & partners 11

CBR Telephony Cornerstone HDT ARRIS provides a wide range of Products for Voice, Data, & Video Solutions VoIP Telephony & Broadband Data Cadant C4 CMTS Cadant C3 CMTS IP Everything Data, Voice, Video Q5 DMTS DOCSIS 1.1 DOCSIS 2.0 PacketCable Cornerstone Voice Ports Cornerstone Max24 Touchstone Telephony Ports, Telephony Modems, & Cable Modems Touchstone Telephony Ports, Telephony Modems, & Cable Modems, Third Party Set top Boxes Toward Convergence 12

ARRIS Cadant CMTS Product Portfolio meets TODAY S Worldwide needs for VoIP and HSD Chassis-based Rack Mount 13 Large Markets Cadant C4 CMTS >20K homes passed per hub DOCSIS 2.0 Qualified DSG Support Qualified PacketCable Qualified Supports up to 52,000 Subscribers Hitless failover Hitless software upgrade Medium to Small Markets Cadant C3 CMTS 5K 20K homes passed per hub DOCSIS 2.0 Qualified Supports up to 3,000 Subscribers Commercial Application Support Virtual Private Networks DOCSIS DOCSIS 2.0 2.0 and and Euro-DOCSIS Euro-DOCSIS 1.1 1.1 Qualified Qualified CMTS CMTS DOCSIS DOCSIS 2.0 2.0 and and Euro-DOCSIS Euro-DOCSIS 1.1 1.1 Qualified Qualified CMTS CMTS

New, Advanced Services are driving Consumers Unquenchable Thirst for Bandwidth Advanced Services Demand More Bandwidth Megabits per Second per Subscriber 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Web Digital Music Browsing Napster E-Mail VoIP All Video on Demand Unicast per Subscriber High Definition Video on Demand Video Blogs Online Games Video Mail Video on Demand Digital Photos 14

Bandwidth per Subscriber- Today. As bandwidth per subscriber increases, more CAM s and CMTS are needed C4 Cable Access Module C4 CMTS Up to 16 CAM s 40 Million bits per Second Gigabit Ethernet Internet Downstream Bandwidth Is Shared by All Modems Modems Contend for Bandwidth The more modems contending The less each gets Typical Math 1,500 modems on a CAM 10% on line peak hour 10% actually accessing simultaneously So, 15 modems share 40Mbps instantaneously Each ACTIVE Modem gets 2.7 Mbps 15

Bandwidth per Subscriber-Tomorrow 10x CAMs will be needed to meet peak hour demand C4 Cable Access Module C4 CMTS Up to 16 CAM s 100 Million bits per Second Gigabit Ethernet Internet Downstream Bandwidth Is Shared by All Modems. Modems Contend for Bandwidth. The more modems contending, the less each gets The New Math 400 modems on a CAM 10% on line peak hour 10% actually accessing simultaneously So, 4 modems share 100Mbps instantaneously The ACTIVE Modem gets 25 Mbps 16

Local VoIP Subscribers in United States are Expected to Grow Rapidly from 1 million in 2004 to over 17 million in 2008 Forecast 20 Subscribers ( M illio n s ) 15 10 5 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: The Yankee Group (October 2004) 17

ARRIS CPE Portfolio of Products For All Applications Software Compatible with All Current PacketCable & SIP Solutions Touchstone Telephony Modem Platinum Touchstone Telephony Modem Gold Touchstone Telephony Modem Silver Touchstone Telephony Modem Bronze Touchstone Telephony Port Application Carrier Grade Voice & Data Carrier Grade Voice & Data Voice & Data Voice & Data Outdoor Carrier Grade Voice & Data Capacity 2 RJ11 1 RJ45 1 USB 2 RJ11 1 RJ45 1 USB 2 RJ11 1 RJ45 1 USB 1 RJ11 1 RJ45 1 USB 2 or 4 RJ11 1 RJ45 CableLabs PC 1.1/DOCSIS 2.0 PC 1.1/DOCSIS 2.0* PC 1.0/DOCSIS 2.0* PC 1.0/DOCSIS 2.0* PC 1.1/DOCSIS 2.0 Features Battery Backup Data Interface Voice CODEC Specials 8-16 Hrs Lithium Ion Bridged 10/100 & USB 711, 726, 729 Battery Telemetry 4 Hrs Lithium Ion Bridged 10/100 & USB 711, 726, 729 Battery Telemetry Local power only Bridged 10/100 & USB 711, 726, 729 Local power only Bridged 10/100 & USB 711, 726, 729 Network or LPSU 10 Base-T 711, 726, 729 Battery Telemetry *Euro-DOCSIS models also available 18

Announcing the new Multi-line emta which further expands the product line.. Target Markets Multiple Dwelling Units & Small & Medium Businesses MDU as % of HHP Domestic 30% (30 million homes) International 40% (45 million homes) Touchstone 24-Line emta Provisionable in 8-line increments for cost effective deployment Full PacketCable and SIP support Leverages 9 years of multi-line network interface unit deployments with Cornerstone technology CBR to VoIP 19 Cornerstone Max24 Touchstone TM424A 24-Line emta

E-MTA Cost Reduction is underway following a well defined Roadmap.. Cost $ Platinum Gold Platinum 40%+ Estimated Cost Reduction! Sliver Bronze Gold Silver Model 4 Taiwan Production Bronze Model 6 20 Silicon Tuner, Ocean Shipments China Production Model 5 New DOCSIS silicon New Plastic 2 cell battery New Line Card TIME

Coming Soon

ARRIS Completes the Triple Play of Voice, Data and now, Video ARRIS Q5 DMTS (Digital Multimedia Termination System) Fuses QAM and CMTS technologies into one product Enables convergence of DOCSIS data/voip & MPEG-2 video Provides a High Return on Investment Reduces equipment count Reduces per stream costs allowing wider VoD deployment High port density reduces CAPEX Ubiquitous Gigabit Ethernet interface reduces ancillary network elements ARRIS is uniquely positioned to be a leader in this space DOCSIS leadership IP client leadership (CM, emta) PacketCable Voice and Multimedia leadership 22

Market Drivers in the Convergence of Voice, Data and Video. Network economics Voice and high speed data are IP based today Video services over IP dramatically lowers costs Lower Capex Single point of conversion Lower Opex Single network manager Competitive Response - On-Demand Content Key to everything on demand Differentiator from satellite based video delivery Breaks the broadcast paradigm Unicast per subscriber Effectively competes with Telco switched digital video Reduced Upgrade Costs - Optimizing Bandwidth Utilization Supports changing time-based bandwidth usage patterns Unified network more efficiently utilizes total bandwidth Reduces Obsolescence - Integrated with Legacy Systems Operator s capital investment in legacy digital video and VoD supported 23

Multi-service Network Today. Commercial Residential Voice Services Data Services Video Conferencing Video on Demand Digital Television Analog Television Gaming Web Surfing Telephone Different Protocols Multiple Separate Pipes Inefficient Bandwidth Utilization Difficult to Manage 24 HFC Network

Multi-service Network Tomorrow. Commercial Residential Voice Services Data Services Video Conferencing Video on Demand Digital Television Analog Television Gaming Web Surfing Telephone Everything IP Everywhere Single Unified Pipe Efficient Bandwidth Utilization Easy to Manage 25 HFC Network

Consumers Unquenchable Thirst for Bandwidth was further Highlighted last week by News at the Consumer Electronic Show (CES) in Las Vegas TVIP will drive tremendous demand for bandwidth LAS VEGAS, Nevada, January 4, 2005 - Orb Networks, Inc., today announced the availability of its debut solution, Orb Media 1.0 a simple way for consumers to view, hear and access all kinds of their digital content from virtually any Internet-enabled device, from anywhere in the world. Imagine being able to watch live TV and home videos while sitting at your favorite café or listen to your entire music collection on any device while waiting at the airport for your plane to arrive. Orb's new streaming media service allows you to do just that. Sling Media Unveils the SlingboxTM Personal Broadcaster New CE Device Pioneers "Placeshifting" Of Your Living Room TV Experience Las Vegas - January 4, 2005 - Sling Media, Inc. this week unveils the SlingboxTM Personal Broadcaster, a breakthrough consumer electronics device that transforms today's television viewing experience. The SlingboxTM enables a consumer to watch their live TV programming from wherever they are by turning virtually any laptop or Internet-connected device into a personal TV. Microsoft names more TV partners Bill Gates announced he has forged closer links with consumer electronics companies in an attempt to boost the use of its software in digital media and entertainment. The new relationships include a partnership with TiVo that would let users download and watch TV on mobile handsets. TiVO goes IP TiVo plans to introduce a high-resolution digital video recorder and deliver programming over Internet lines Charter and Samsung to Jointly Develop Two-Way Digital Cable LAS VEGAS, Jan. 6 /PRNewswire/ -- Samsung Electronics and Charter Communications, Inc. (Nasdaq: CHTR - News) today announced a strategic partnership for the joint development and promotion of Two-Way Digital Cable TV The companies intend to deploy a low-cost Network Interface Unit (NIU) and XHT HDTV that would enable two-way digital cable services efforts are expected to accelerate High Definition Digital cable services, as well as increase the market share of Digital TVs... 26

New, Advanced Services are driving Consumers Unquenchable Thirst for Bandwidth Advanced Services Demand More Bandwidth Megabits per Second per Subscriber 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Web Digital Music Browsing Napster E-Mail VoIP All Video on Demand Unicast per Subscriber High Definition Video on Demand Video Blogs Online Games Video Mail Video on Demand Digital Photos 27

Bandwidth per Subscriber- Day After Tomorrow 100x Downstreams will be needed Q5 Makes it Economical Q5 DMTS Up to 48 Downstreams 160 Million bits per Second 4xGigabit Ethernet Internet Downstream Bandwidth Is Shared by All Modems Modems Contend for Bandwidth The more modems contending The less each gets The New New Math 200 modems on a CAM 10% online peak hour 10% actually accessing simultaneously So, 2 modems share 160Mbps instantaneously Two ACTIVE Modems get 80 Mbps 28

Today s HFC Architecture. Separate Networks for Video & Voice/Data, Inefficient, Difficult to Manage DOCSIS CM & emta The CMTS supports DOCSIS data flows VoIP & HSD CMTS Telephony & HSD Operations HFC Headend & Metro Network Video Operations Encoders Digital STB MPEG-TS DOCSIS Video QAM The QAM supports only downstream MPEG-2 digital video VoD/Cache Servers 29

Tomorrow s HFC Architecture. Simpler, More Powerful, Converged Platform DOCSIS CM & emta The DMTS supports both Video QAM & bi-directional DOCSIS data flows Telephony & HSD Operations HFC Headend & Metro Network Video Operations Digital STB MPEG-TS DOCSIS Q5 DMTS Video, Voice, & Data, Set Top Control & Ultrahigh Speed Data (100Mbps) VoD/Cache Servers Encoders 30

ARRIS Q5 DMTS. provides a simpler, more powerful, converged platform Network Edge device to support both MPEG digital video and DOCSIS IP multimedia content delivery Industry leading density Modular design supports flexible deployment configurations Available Q105 Q105 Trials Trials 31

Worldwide QAM / IP Video Access Market is expected to grow rapidly $700 CAGR ( 04-06) = 83 % Growth driven by: $600 $500 $609 Convergence over IP Headend consolidation Bandwidth utilization $ Million $400 $300 $389 On-demand content Continued Edge QAM deployment $200 $182 $100 $100 $- 32 2003 2004 2005 2006 ARRIS View

Financials

Key Areas of Actions & Focus for continued Financial Improvement in 2004 and beyond Top Line Manage ultimate transition from 1 st to 2 nd generation telephony Introduce new products E-MTA Cadant C4+ CMTS Q5 DMTS New Distribution products Increase market share Operating Expense Continue to optimize and tightly manage Continue to invest aggressively in future: CMTS Q5 DMTS C4+ CMTS All IP network Profitable growth Improve earnings per share Target gross margins of 30% or above Strong Capital Structure Strong Working Capital Management Invest in our future R&D M&A/Alliances Margins Balance of Gross Margin and Operating Margin Product Cost Reductions Increase market share of higher margin products Improve operating margins in Supplies product category Capital Structure and Working Capital Opportunistically redeem notes Maintain sufficient liquidity Continue strong working capital management 34

Nine months of 2004 have shown marked financial improvement over the same period in 2003 Nine months revenue of $360.6 million vs. same period 2003 of $306.2 million EPS significantly improved year over year GAAP EPS increased $0.17 from ($0.50) to ($0.33) EPS, excluding certain items*, increased $0.44 from ($0.34) to $0.10 Cash on hand increased $36M from $60M to $96M year over year Convertible debt reduced by $50M from $125M to $75M year over year Inventory turns increased from 3.2 to 4.6 year over year DSO s decreased from 47.1 to 45.5 year over year * See our website at www.arrisi.com for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 35 26

Guidance For Fourth Quarter 2004 Revenues in the range of $120 to $130 million Net income (loss) per share from $(0.01) to $(0.05) Excluding amortization of intangibles and certain items earnings of $0.00 to $0.04 per share ARRIS products remain well positioned for anticipated MSO spending in 2005 and beyond 36

Full year 2004 is forecasted to provide Marked Financial Improvement Over 2003 Results 500 Sales - $M 481-491 0.40 EPS - $ 0.20 0.10-0.14 0.00 450 434-0.20-0.40 (0.28) (0.34) - (0.38) 400 2003 2004E* * 2004 Estimate nine months reported results plus guidance for Q4 ** See our website at www.arrisi.com for a reconciliation of non-gaap measures 37 26-0.60-0.80 (0.62) 2003 2004E* GAAP EPS Excluding Certain Items**

Outlook For 2005 Is Positive Anticipate both Top & Bottom Line improvement GAAP EPS & EPS excluding certain items closer together Amortization of Intangibles $29M in 2004 vs. $1M in 2005 Stock Option Expense???? Anticipate continued cash generation from operations Good order momentum entering 2005 Positioned well in growth segments VOIP IP Video 38

Questions and Answers