Available olie a www.eco.upm.edu.my GCBER 2017 Augus 14-15, UPM, Malaysia Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research Goverace ad Susaiabiliy of Global Busiess Ecoomics Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia FDI, Huma Capial ad Ecoomic Growh: Evidece from Nigeria Abubakar Mikailu Amiu, Yasmi Bai* Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia Absrac This paper ivesigaes he impac of foreig direc ivesme (FDI) ad huma capial o ecoomic growh i Nigeria. The sudy uilizes he Auoregressive Disribued Lag (ARDL) model of coiegraio coverig he period 1975 o 2014. The fidigs reveal ha FDI ad huma capial have o direc effec o he growh of he Nigeria ecoomy over he sampled period i he log-ru. However, whe we ierac FDI ad huma capial, he effec is posiive ad sigifica. This suggess ha i Nigeria, huma capial would posiively ecourage FDI ad ha ake ogeher; i would sigificaly ad posiively impac he ecoomic growh of he coury. The fidigs sugges ha i order o boos oupu hrough FDI, Nigeria would eed o improve he educaioal siuaio i he coury by icreasig he level of fudig especially i he research, developme ad iovaios. Keywords: FDI, huma capial, ecoomic growh, ARDL 1. INTRODUCTION Govermes across he globe have bee ryig over he years o lif heir couries ou of ecoomic depressio, some wih success ad may ohers wihou achievig he desired goal (Ibrahim, 2015; Jekis ad Thomas, 2002; ad Lipsey, 2000). However, irrespecive of performace, various govermes have realized he eed o focus ieres o faciliaig he flow of foreig direc ivesme (FDI), which is hough, will be adequae o moivae he geeraio of employme as well as posiively coribue o heir ecoomic progress (Nkechi, 2013). This is impora so as o be able o miimize he gap bewee a aio s GDP ad foreig ad domesic savigs. I he same vei, Jeki ad Thomas (2002) have idicaed ha FDI is crucial o foser ecoomic growh by elargig he flow of foreig exchage as well as by opimizig local savigs ad oal oupu. Cocepually, FDI is hough o provide direc ivesme io a ecoomy by a foreig ivesor hrough sarup iiiaives, merger or akeover of hos coury s viable busiess eerprises. FDI, herefore, could provide par of a coury s foreig resource iflows i he form of capial, ICT, advaced maageme skills, ad access o a larger share of he global marke (Offiog ad Asu, 2004). All hese resources ca sigificaly impac o hos coury s ecoomic ad producive capabiliies (Adelaku, 2011; Olauji e al, 2014; Chido e al 2015 ad Salami ad Oyewale, 2013). I he case of Nigeria, he various sae ad federal govermes have bee puig effors o creae a friedly ecoomic evirome for FDI eve hough he red of iflow of foreig capial ad direc busiess ivesmes have grealy bee o he declie, especially over he pas five years, largely due o he coceraio of effors i boosig he oil ad gas idusry o he eglec of he oher secors (Mojekwu ad Ogege, 2012). Geerally, policies ad sraegies of he Nigeria goverme i he area of foreig direc ivesmes are delieaed by wo key objecives. These are he eed for susaiable ecoomic growh; ad geeraio of employme (Ajayi, 2006; Offiog ad Asu, 2014; ad Doguwa e al, 2014). Like mos developig ad eve developed aios, Nigeria s * Correspodig auhor. Tel.: +603-89467248 E-mail: or_yasmi@upm.edu.my 2017 The Auhors
Proceedigs of he Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia mai source of per capia oupu is rooed i he volume ad efficiecy of is producio ad markeig sraegies (Adelaku, 2011). This is because growh i per capia oupu is a impora eleme of ecoomic growh ad developme. I oher words, he iauguraio of soud ad susaiable ecoomic sraegies would deped o he efficiecy ad iovaive creaiviy of he workforce. I he case of Nigeria, issues relaig o o-opimal developme of huma capial, which are largely rooed i iappropriae developme, divisio ad disribuio of skilled mapower, ad poor sysem of remueraio, have hidered he full uilizaio of aveues ha ca arac he eeded quaiy of foreig direc ivesme capial iflows (Mojekwu ad Ogege, 2012). Alhough FDI is beeficial o recipie couries, is effecs have o bee fel widely due o relaively isigifica level of foreig direc ivesme o Africa, whe compared wih oher regios, such as Lai America ad Asia. The issue of a uderdeveloped huma capial i Nigeria which is oiceable from he level of school erolme affecs he iflow of FDI. I heory, huma capial is said o be a key facor i absorbig echological spill overs ad a poor huma capial ca be raslaed io a low level of ecoomic growh because he beefis of echological rasfers hrough foreig direc ivesme cao be adequaely capured. May sudies oly ivesigae he role of FDI i foserig ecoomic growh of a hos ecoomy. However, majoriy of he sudies coduced o he role of oher facors o he lik bewee foreig direc ivesme ad ecoomic growh have egleced Africa i geeral ad Nigeria i paricular. I addiio, he relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh i Nigeria ad how i relaes o he role of huma capial is ye uclear, ad ha rece evidece shows ha he relaioship may be coury ad period specific (Adawo, 2011; Olauji, e al 2014 ad Ayawale, 2007). This sudy does o ivesigae he relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh, bu i also ivesigaes he role played by huma capial developme of he hos ecoomy i aidig he effecs of FDI o ecoomic growh. This sudy has herefore examied wheher FDI affec ecoomic growh from he perspecive of huma capial developme i Nigeria.The aim of he paper is o ivesigae he chael by which FDI impacs o ecoomic growh i Nigeria. Specifically, his sudy would like o aalyse he imporace of huma capial chael ad how his chael ca be a key medium o absorb he beefis of FDI o ecoomic growh. I oher words, we will examie he direc ad idirec effec of FDI ad huma capial o ecoomic growh i Nigeria. Our resuls show ha FDI ad huma capial do o sigificaly affec ecoomic growh i he shor ru. However, i he log-ru, huma capial is posiive ad sigifica while FDI is isigifica. The resuls do o chage whe we icorporae he ieracio erm. I addiio, whe ieraced, boh FDI ad huma capial sigificaly coribue o he icrease i Nigeria s ecoomic growh. 2. LITERATURE REVIEW O he aspec of FDI, Lamsiraroj (2015) has employed a sample of 124 cross-coury pael daa coverig a ime spa of 40 years (1971-2010) o examie he relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh. Usig labour force ad rade liberalisaio as key variables, he esablished sigifica posiive relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh. His fidig is i agreeme wih ha of Alfaro (2004) who has uilised GDP, huma capial, populaio growh ad goverme expediure as key variables o coclude ha FDI i paricular has a sigifica posiive relaioship wih ecoomic growh. I relaio o hese sudies, Adams (2009) ivesigaed he impac of FDI, domesic ivesme (DI) ad ecoomic growh usig OLS ad fixed effecs for Sub-Sahara Africa couries (SSA) over he period 1990-2003. His fidigs revealed ha alhough he flow of FDI has icreased for SSA couries, he icrease did o lead o a proporioae posiive impac of FDI o ecoomic growh. Amee (2015) examied he effec of FDI iflows o ecoomic growh i Malaysia from 1975-2010 usig higher Muliple Regressio aalysis (HMR) based o a deduced edogeous growh model. He cocluded ha FDI iflows suppored wih posiive huma capial developme coribue srogly o he hos coury s ecoomic growh. I he same vei, Ami ad Khalid (2013) ivesigae he relaioship bewee foreig direc ivesme ad ecoomic growh from 1994-2012. They foud ha FDI exers posiive effecs o he hos coury s ecoomic growh. Uilizig a sample of pael daa o 85 couries coverig a spa of 30 years (1975-2004), Baharumshah ad Law (2010) have foud o posiive relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh. I his sudy coverig a log period (1980-2009) Gui-Dibly (2014) has esablished mixed resuls showig a egaive relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh wihi he period 1980-1994 ad a posiive relaioship wihi he 1995-2009 ime spas. He used a sample of pael daa o 50 Africa couries o arrive a his fidigs. I heir sudy o Nigeria, Adeleke e al (2015) have also foud ha FDI is sigificaly associaed wih ecoomic growh. They uilized he OLS mehod o daa coverig he period 1999-2013. 414
Proceedigs of he Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia Wih regard o sudies o huma capial, like FDI i has also bee employed as a idicaor of ecoomic growh ad i is parly depede o kowledge ad performace. From a heoreical perspecive, huma capial is viewed as ivesme ad expediure i educaio ad healhcare wheher separaely or collecively. Cleave, (2015) assessed he role of huma capial o he iflows of FDI i sub-sahara Africa usig pael daa of 35 couries for a period from 1980-2012. His fidigs reveal ha huma capial has a sigifica ifluece o FDI. Adawo (2011) has also examied he impac of huma capial formaio o Nigeria s susaiable ecoomic growh usig aual ime series daa from 1970-2006. His key fidig is ha huma capial formaio a secodary ad eriary school level hardly coribue o ecoomic growh i he log-ru. O he whole, he few relaed sudies o he impac of FDI ad huma capial o Nigeria s ecoomic growh have revealed diverge coclusios ad have o provided coge pracical recommedaios for policy ad decisio-makig. The fidigs ad recommedaios of his work are expeced o fill his gap. Chido e al (2015) have esablished a posiive relaioship bewee huma capial, echology ad ecoomic growh. There is, however, a gap bewee heir objecives ad hose of his sudy. While hey uilized huma capial ad echology as variables, i his sudy, huma capial ad FDI were used. Agai, his sudy limied is sampled daa o oly secodary school erolmes, while he above meioed sudy cosidered boh secodary ad pos-secodary erolmes. The ime spas of he wo sudies are also differe. 3. DATA AND METHODOLOGY The relaioship bewee foreig direc ivesme ad huma capial is examied usig aual ime series daa for he period of 1980-2014. The daa used is obaied from he world developme idicaors (WDI, 2014). The sudy employed auoregressive disribued lag (ARDL) approach o coiegraio echique. This is used i order o check for he dyamic properies of he variables used ad derive he error correcio model (ECM) of he ardl specificaio. The ARDL echique was uilized because of is advaages: i ca be applied o he variables irrespecive of wheher he ime series daa are purely 1 (0), purely 1 (1), or fracioally coiegraed (Pesara e al 2001). i is also possible ad accepable for differe variables o have differe lags, which are o possible wih he sadard coiegraio es. Furhermore, boh he log-ru ad he shor-ru coefficies could be obaied simulaeously alhough he sample observaio is limied (Chido e al, 2015). The empirical model i his sudy follows he edogeous growh heory by Romer (1986) ad Lucas (1988). The heory is cosidered o be more releva ad appropriae o provide he heoreical framework for his sudy because firs i ries o uderscore he key deermias of ecoomic growh ad secodly i ca appropriaely be applied o a aggregae producio fucio wih more ha wo variables or compoes. The empirical model is a fucio of possible deermias of growh which icludes FDI ad huma capial. The empirical model is specified as follows: l GDP 0 1 l K 2 l L 3 l FDI 4 l HC 5 l GE (1) where GDP represes real GDP per capia, K idicaes physical capial, L represes labour force, FDI represes he foreig direc ivesme, HC represes huma capial ad GE represes goverme expediure. represes ime ad ε is he sochasic error erm. To ivesigae he relaioship bewee FDI ad ecoomic growh hrough huma capial developme, a ieracio erm bewee FDI ad huma capial (FDI HC) is icorporaed i he model. The resulig model is as follows: l GDP 0 1 l K 2 l L 3 l FDI 4 l HC 5 l GE 7 l FDI HC (2) Based o he bouds-esig approach proposed by Pesara ad Smih (1998), Pesara e al. (2001) ad Naraya (2005) ay log-ru relaioship may be give by he equaio as follows: l GDP 10 l HC 5i 0 1 10 l GDP 1i 10 l GE 6i 1 1 10 l K 10 2i l FDI * HC 7i 1 10 l L 3i 1 1 10...(3) l FDI where represes he opimal lag legh, is ime ad refers o he firs differece of variables by usig he coefficie of his error correcio model (ECM), he speed of he adjusme will be calculaed. This will explai how much ime he sysem will ake o reur o he log erm equilibrium afer a radom shock ad he expeced sig will be egaive o esure he covergece. The error correcio model (uresriced) for he ARDL model is specified i he equaio below: 4i 1 415
Proceedigs of he Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia l GDP 10 l HC 5i 0 1 10 l GDP 1i 10 l GE 5i 1 1 10 l K 10 2i l FDI * HC 6i 1 10 l L 3i 1 1 10 l FDI 4i ECM...(4) where he speed of adjusme will be γ ad ECM is he residuals which were obaied hrough he applicaio of he coiegraio model. I addiio, he coefficie will give he iformaio abou he log ru relaioship amog he variables. 4. RESULT AND DISCUSSION The ui roo es for all he variables were coduced o ideify he order of coiegraio of he variables by usig he augmeed Dickey Fuller (ADF) ad Phillips Perro es (PP) ess. The resuls of he ui roo ess show ha all he variables are saioary a firs differece which idicaes ha all he series are, iegraed a he same order; I (1). The coiegraio resul preseed i Table 1 shows ha boh Model 1 ad 2 are coiegraed as he calculaed F saisics values (5.350 ad 9.648) based o he opimum lags seleced exceed he upper boud of he criical bouds able developed by Naraya (2005) a 1% for model 1 ad 5% for model 2, respecively. Therefore, he resuls agree o he log ru relaioship bewee he variables i he wo models. This allows for he esimaio of he shor-ru error correcio model ad he log ru coefficies. Table 1. The Bouds Tes Resuls for Model 1 ad Model 2 Level of Sigificace Bouds es criical values I (0) I (1) Models F Saisic Model 1 9.648[0.000] a 1% 3.800 5.643 5% 2.797 4.211 10% 2.353 3.599 1% 4.045 5.898 Model 2 5.350[0.002] a 5% 2.962 4.338 10% 2.483 3.708 Noe: Based o Naraya Table Case III (Naraya, 2005) a Deoe Model 1 ad 2 s coiegraed F saisics wih heir correspodig criical bod values, respecively 1 Table 2 preses he log-ru ad shor-ru equaios for Model 1. The log-ru resul discloses ha FDI is posiive bu o sigifica. The resul clearly idicaes ha FDI has o direc impac o growh i Nigeria. This fidig cofirmed ha of Ali ad Abdullahi (2015 for he same sample coury. The resul also subsaiae he fidigs of Baharumshah & Law, (2010) ad Durham (2004) who amog ohers, repored similar resul ad have discovered ha FDI has o direc impac o growh. The direc impac of FDI i Nigeria i he shor-ru is also egaive ad isigifica. Labor ad capial are posiive ad sigifica a he 1% level which is i accordace wih he edogeous growh heory meioed briefly i previous secio. The log-ru resuls i Table 2 also reveal ha huma capial is isigifica. This also suggess ha huma capial by iself does o have a sigifica impac o growh i he log-ru period. I coras, he shor ru resul discloses ha huma capial has a egaive bu sigifica impac o ecoomic growh a he 10% level. To be specific, a 1% icrease i huma capial would lead o a -0.220% decrease i ecoomic growh. The resul cofirms he fidigs of Shobade (2014) who repored a egaive relaioship bewee huma capial ad ecoomic growh i Nigeria. Goverme expediure is also posiive ad sigifica i he log-ru. 416
Proceedigs of he Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia Table 2. The esimaed Log-Ru ad shor-ru Coefficies Based o Schwarz Bayesia Crierio for Model 1 (Wihou Ieracio) Regressors Coefficies T-Raio[Prob] The log-ru resuls LFDI -0.004-0.215[0.831] LK 0.307 5.457[0.000]*** LLF 7.995 8.241[0.000]*** LHC 0.058 1.492[0.149] LGE 0.146 6.406[0.000]*** Cosa -24.091-4.059[0.000]*** The shor-ru resuls dlfdi -0.004 -.2115[0.834] dlk 0.234 5.224[0.000]*** dllf 14.087 3.011[0.001]*** dlhc -0.220-1.889[0.069]* dlge dconst 0.182-19.151 6.468[0.000]*** -4.462[0.000]*** ECM (-1) -0.795-2.500[0.018]** Adjused R 2 0.986 Durbi-Waso saisics 1.961 Noe: LRGDP = Depede Variable: Lag leghs are 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 1 seleced based o SBC Noe: *Sigifica a 10% level. ** Sigifica a 5% level. ***Sigifica a 1% level. The Error Correcio Model (ECM) wih he coefficie (-0.795) corroboraes he log-ru relaioship amog he variables ad doaes he speed of adjusme of he variables covergece from shor-ru o log-ru equilibrium is 79.5%. This shows ha i he eve of ay shock he speed of adjusme is high. The repored F- saisics values, adjused R-squared, ad he Durbi-Waso saisic sugges ha he model is a good fi. Table 3 preses he log-ru ad shor-ru resuls for Model 2. I he log-ru, he ieracio of FDI wih huma capial is posiive ad saisically sigifica a he 5 % level. I fac, a 1% icrease i he ieracio of FDI wih huma capial (HC) would lead o 0.311% icrease i ecoomic growh. This is also rue for he shor-ru.this would imply ha he ieracio of FDI ad huma capial have had a posiive effec o he ecoomy s growh. This shows ha i Nigeria, huma capial ecourages FDI iflow wih a resula icrease i log-ru ecoomic growh. The ieracio became ecessary because accordig o he ew growh heory, spillovers of echology ca be fully uilized by a coury ha has a developed huma capial. Tha is, huma capial is ecessary o absorb echology ha comes hrough FDI (Grossma ad Helpma, 1990, 1991). Icludig he ieracio bewee FDI ad huma capial improves he overall performace of he regressio. I his model specificaio, we relied o he ieracio o esablish he coigecy. If he ieracio erm is posiive ad sigifica, his would imply ha he idirec effec of FDI o ecoomic growh icreases wih huma capial developme. Whereas, if he ieracio erm bewee FDI ad huma capial is egaive ad sigifica, his would imply ha he idirec effec of FDI o ecoomic growh decreases wih huma capial developme. Table 3. The esimaed Log-Ru ad shor-ru Coefficies Based o Schwarz Bayesia Crierio for Model 2 (Wih Ieracio) Regressors Coefficies T-Raio[Prob] The log-ru resuls LFDI 0.052 1.317[0.201] LLF 5.129 4.399[0.000]*** LK 0.225 7.387[0.000]*** LHC LGE -0.326 0.135-2.160[0.041]** 5.308[0.000]*** LINTR 0.311 2.455[0.022]** CONST -7.654-1.321[0.199] The shor-ru resuls dlfdi 0.047 1.427[0.165] dllf 14.732 3.284[0.003]*** dlk 0.215 4.857[0.000]*** dlhc -0.289-2.266[0.032]** dlge 0.192 7.275[0.000]*** dlintr 0.188 1.769[0.088]* dconst -6.788-1.260[0.219] ECM (-1) -0.887-4.572[0.000]*** Adjused R 2 0.988 Durbi-Waso saisics 2.052 Noe: LRGDP = Depede Variable: Lag leghs are 2, 0, 2, 2, 1, 1 seleced based o SBC Noe: *Sigifica a 10% level. ** Sigifica a 5% level. ***Sigifica a 1% level. 417
Proceedigs of he Global Coferece o Busiess ad Ecoomics Research (GCBER) 2017 14-15 Augus 2017, Uiversii Pura Malaysia, Malaysia The resul is cosise wih he fidigs advaced by Balasubramayam e al. (1999); Karbasi e al. (2005); Li ad Liu (2005) ad Boreszei e al. (1998); who repored similar resuls ha huma capial is a impora precodiio for posiive effecs of FDI. The Error Correcio Model (ECM) coefficie (-0.887) subsaiaes he log-ru relaioship amog he variables ad doaes he speed of adjusme of he variables covergece from shor-ru o log-ru equilibrium is 88.7%. The adjused R 2, Durbi-Waso saisic, ad F saisic idicae ha he model is a good fi. Like ay oher ime series aalysis, diagosic ess are imperaive i assessig he validiy, efficiecy ad cosisecy of he esimaed model. Table 4 shows ha Model 1 ad Model 2 have passed all he diagosic ess. The resul is free from auocorrelaio. The Jacque Bera saisics cofirmed ha he model is sable because he ormaliy es favours he aleraive hypohesis. The fucioal form resuls reveals ha he model is correcly specified. The resuls of he heeroscedasiciy show ha he residual is cosa over ime sice he ull of he presece of heeroscedasiciy is rejeced. Table 4. Diagosic Tess Tes-Saisics LM Versio F Versio Model 1 Serial Correlaio CHSQ(1)= 0.015[0.901] F(1, 23) 0.009[0.924] Fucioal Form CHSQ(1)= 0.470[0.493] F(1, 23) 0.288[0.597] Normaliy CHSQ(2)= 1.653[0.438] No applicable Heeroskedasiciy CHSQ(1)= 0.382[0.537] F(1, 36) 0.366[0.549] Model 2 Serial Correlaio CHSQ(1)= 0.057[0.810] F(1, 22) 0.033[0.856] Fucioal Form CHSQ(1)= 2.649[0.104] F(1, 22) 1.649[0.212] Normaliy CHSQ(2)= 1.148[0.563] No applicable Heeroskedasiciy CHSQ(1)= 1.695[0.193] F(1, 36) 1.681[0.203] 5. CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS The fidigs of he log-ru relaioship have revealed ha FDI ad huma capial idividually have o direc effec o he growh of he Nigeria ecoomy over he sampled period. I effec, FDI by iself has weak ecoomic poeial o moivae growh especially i he shor ru. Also, boh huma capial cosidered separaely has o sigifica effec o growh i he log-ru, eve hough i was foud o have sigifica egaive impac i he shor-ru. The impac of foreig direc ivesme o ecoomic growh is coige o he capaciy of huma capial. The log-ru resuls of he ieracio of FDI wih huma capial were cofirmed o have posiive ad sigifica effec o ecoomic growh i Nigeria. I oher words, huma capial ecourages ad simulaes FDI iflows such ha he effec of FDI o ecoomic growh icreases wih huma capial o oly i he log-ru bu also i he shor-ru. The ECMs for he wo models have cofirmed he log-ru relaioship ad idicaed a moderae speed of adjusme of he variables covergece o equilibrium i he log ru. The wo models used i he sudy have passed diagosic ess, icludig he sabiliy ess of CUSUM ad CUSUMSQ. This has cofirmed he ifereial power of he wo models, as well as heir reliabiliy. From he coclusio above, he followig recommedaios are proffered o guide policy ad decisio makig: The auhoriies i Nigeria would eed o work o policy frameworks ha will provide suiable evirome for foreig direc ivesme. This will moivae he flow of profiable foreig busiesses ha would suppor he ecoomy ad reduce some of he aio's ecoomic predicames ha are parly exacerbaed by uemployme. The goverme eeds o improve he educaioal siuaio i he coury by icreasig he level of fudig especially i he areas of research, developme ad iovaios as well as by providig he eeded raiig equipme ad ifrasrucure i schools i paricular ad across he aio i geeral. Thus a lo of ivesme mus be pu i place by he goverme o ivigorae he primary ad secodary levels of educaio o make hem qualiaive eough such ha secodary school leavers who are uable o secure admissio io higher isiuios of learig would have acquired adequae iellecual ad pracical kow-how o profiably be egaged i oe form of ecoomic veure or aoher. This is where FDI will be of grea help. I specific erms, he areas ha would be of ieres for FDI, wihi he coex of symbioic relaioship wih boh he goverme ad privae secor erepreeurs i Nigeria should cover o oly he oil ad gas secor, bu he agriculural, cosrucio, ad maufacurig secors. These are secors ha ca accommodae boh skilled ad semi-skilled employees where he bulk of hem ca be secodary school leavers. 418
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