IET Appleton Lecture Fibre broadband what will it take to make it happen? Steve Unger, CTO, Ofcom 6 th February, 2013
What does history tell us? 1
Fibre technologies are not new 2
But copper is the success story of recent years 3
There are many more connections than there were 10 years ago Consumer take-up of data services (claimed) 80% 60% 40% 50 75 71 Any broadband Fixed broadband Data service on mobile phone Mobile dongles 20% 0% 8 6 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Superfast broadband Dial up internet (as main method) Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey 4
There are more devices than there were 10 years ago Ownership of connected devices (claimed) 80% 79 Any computer* 60% 61 50 Laptop Smartphone 40% 41 Desktop PC Tablet 20% 0% 16 7 6 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Netbook Smart TV Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey * PC, Laptop, Netbook or Tablet 5
We have seen growth in bandwidth-hungry applications at home Use of internet at home (selected activities) 60% 50% 50% 2007 2012 UK adults 40% 30% 20% 19% 16% 35% 21% 30% 28% 10% 0% Social networking Streaming video Online gaming Catch-up TV 0% Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey 6
Consumers have increased their use of mobile services Activities that mobile phones are used for (selected activities) 2007 2012 50% UK adults 40% 30% 20% 42% 33% 29% 26% 25% 10% 10% 7% 6% 8% 0% Accessing internet Email 0% Social networking* Download apps Instant messaging Source: Ofcom technology tracking survey * Social networking use not recorded in 2007 7
Leading to growth in fixed broadband usage Availability SFBB > 2 MB/s 86% 90% 58% 65% Mar-11 Jun-12 Average sync speed (MB/s) Household usage (GB / month) Active connections (millions) Total usage (petabytes / month) Usage Mar-11 Jun-12 Growth 7.5 12.7 69% 17 23 35% 18 20.6 14.4% 311 484 56% Source: Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2011 and 2012 8
Does usage depend on line-speed? 80 ADSL2+ Data Usage 600 80 Cable Data Usage Monthly Usage (GB) 60 40 20 500 400 300 200 100 Number of Lines (000s) 60 40 20 0 0 4 8 12 16 20 Sync speed of access line (MB/s) 0 0 10 20 30 50+ Package Speed (MB/s) Source: Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2012 Note: ADSL2+ data is shown for customers on unlimited broadband packages 9
Leading to substantial growth in mobile data Take-up of mobile devices Network usage 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% End 2009 End 2010 End 2011 Tablets End 2012 E-Readers Active SIMs (millions) Usage per SIM (GB / month) Total usage (petabytes / month) Total usage (% of fixed data) Mar-11 Jun-12 Growth 81.1 81.7 <1% 0.11 0.24 119% 9 19.7 119% 2.9% 4.1% Dongles / laptops Date on phones Source: Ofcom technology tracker, Ofcom Infrastructure Report 2011 and 2012 10
Where next? 11
A virtuous circle Services, Devices and Networks Networks Virtuous Circle Devices Services 12
A brief history Dial-up modems 14.4 56 kbps ISDN 128 kbps ADSL < 8 Mbps ADSL 2+ < 24 Mbps VDSL < 80 Mbps 1990s 2000s 2010s Text-based content Basic graphics Always on, richer graphics, audio Video content, streaming Multimedia, multiple devices 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 13
Will Is there a bandwidth-hungry, a killer app for superfast killer broadband app? drive the next wave of infrastructure development... Ultra HD TV 4K 00100 0101110010010 1010101110010 14
...Or Lots of is killer it more apps likely to be the cumulative demands of many connected devices across the home? 00100 10000100110010100100000011100110111 01010111001000100001001100101001000 10100100000011100110111010101110010 0010001010111001000100001001100101001000 15
Ownership of internet-enabled devices Household penetration (%) 80 60 40 20 0 61 Laptop 52 Games console 44 Desktop PC 41 39 Internet enabled STB Smartphone 32 Portable games console 14 11 7 5 E-reader* Tablet Netbook Smart TV Source: Ofcom research, Quarter 1 2012 Base: Adults aged 16+ n = 2258 Note: IP-enabled devices include laptop, games console, desktop PC, smartphone, portable games console, internet enabled STB (Sky+, Sky+ HD, V+ and V+ HD set top boxes), e-reader, tablet, netbook, and smart TV. *E-reader take-up stated here is household while elsewhere in the report we state figures by individual take-up. 16
Number of different internet-enabled devices per household Own at least n no. of devices 100 85 72 56 40 27 15 7 3 1.1 0.1 20 Own n no. of devices 15 15 16 Own at least n no. of devices 15 14 14 12 Proportion of households(%) 10 5 0 None One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten n number of different devices 8 4 2 1 0.1 100 75 50 25 0 Proportion of households (%) Source: Ofcom research, Quarter 1 2012 Base: Adults aged 16+ n = 2258 Note: IP-enabled devices include laptop, games console, desktop PC, smartphone, portable games console, internet enabled STB (Sky+, Sky+ HD, V+ and V+ HD set top boxes), e-reader, tablet, netbook, and smart TV. 17
Avoiding a mobile capacity crunch Current forecasts suggest mobile traffic might grow by two orders of magnitude. More spectrum is part of the answer, but a move to small cells is also key 18
Convergence of fixed and mobile network architectures Thousands of households Hundreds of households Tens of households Single household, multiple users Exchange-based Broadband FTTC FTTDP / FTTH Core Networks Increasing used of fibre backhaul Macro cells Micro cells Outdoor pico cells and WiFi Indoor femto cells / WiFi / Ethernet 19
Beyond the market the rationale for public funding? 20
Beyond the market the rationale for public funding? There is a role for public funding, targeted at the widespread availability of broadband infrastructure as a means of promoting economic growth, and avoiding a digital divide Cost (per home) Commercial Deployments Commercial willingness to invest Gap Funding Network cost Coverage Source: Campaign to Protect Rural England 21
Questions 22