A First Look at Teacher Retention in Virginia Luke C. Miller, Ph.D. Research Assistant Professor, EdPolicyWorks 2018 Teacher Retention Summit 23 October 2018
Purpose Goal: examine patterns in teacher retention since SY 2005-06 Inform today s conversations Inform a future, deeper study into the patterns and causes of teacher retention so as to benefit state-, division-, and school-level policies Focus: School-level retention as this is where the vacancy needs to be filled Full-time teachers (FTE >=.75) 132 county, city, and town divisions
Why the Focus on Teacher Retention? Teacher turnover has negative effects Student achievement (Boyd, Lankford, Loeb, & Wyckoff, 2005; Guin, 2004; Ronfeldt, Loeb, & Wyckoff, 2013) Teacher morale and effectiveness (Jackson & Bruegmann, 2009) Significant costs in hiring and training (Milanowski & Odden, 2007) How low should teacher turnover be? 0% turnover is unrealistic even if exclude turnover caused by retirements Ideal is: 0% turnover of effective teachers 100% turnover of ineffective teachers See brief by Veronica Katz (2018) for a summary of the literature on teacher retention.
Data from the Virginia Department of Education 13-year period: 2005-06 to 2017-18 Individuals linkable over years Assignment Teaching assignments by course Administrative assignments by position Linked to a school Education Degree type, year issued, degree granting institution if in-state (otherwise state/out-of-country) Licensure License type, license issue and expiration date, endorsement area, endorsement date Gender, race/ethnicity Route to endorsement, in-state educator preparation program (name and year) School Characteristics Student enrollment, free/reduced-price lunch eligibility, SOL pass rates
Size of Teacher Workforce & Student Population Teacher Workforce Student Population Grew by 788 (0.9%) teachers over the period Lost 4,830 (5.6%) teachers during Great Recession (2008-2012) Grew by 79,210 (6.5%) students over the period Increased every year
Most Regions Shrank between 2005-05 and 2017-18 4. Northern Students +26.7% Teachers +16.7% 5. Valley Students -0.3% Teachers -2.8% 5 4 3 3. Northern Neck Students +4.6% Teachers -4.9% 7 6 8 1 2 7. Southwest Students -9.7% Teachers -4.3% 6. Western Students -3.8% Teachers -4.1% 8. Southside Students -13.3% Teachers -14.7% 1. Central Students +3.8% Teachers -1.5% 2. Tidewater Students -6.3% Teachers -11.6%
Retention Defined Forward-looking: where are this year s teachers next year? Stay at Current School (i.e., retained) Transfer Schools (within or across divisions) Exit the Teacher Workforce at Virginia s 132 Divisions Defined only on full-time teachers (97% of all teachers) Reduction to part-time is classified as stay or transfer, as applicable Only 0.7% of full-time teachers who stay or transfer reduce to part-time Drop observations in the year a school closes (0.5% of all teacher-year obs) 315 schools close, do not reopen; 41 schools close but reopen Allows for teachers to have assignments at more than one school within a division 2.5% of full-time teachers in a year have assignments at more than 1 school
Virginia Teacher Retention, 2016-17 TRANSFERS 58% Within Division 42% Across Divisions 7% 11% EXITERS 17% Move into Administration 82% - 65% Current School - 25% Within Division - 10% Across Divisions School-level Retention Outcomes Transfer Schools Exit System Stay at Current School
% Teachers Staying at Current School Variability in Retention Rate, 2016-17 WITHIN REGIONS Substantial variability within regions 100 80 60 82% 82% 81% 82% 83% 82% 86% 81% ACROSS DIVISIONS Highest: 93% Retained Region 7 Largest Difference: 34% Region 2 40 20 Lowest: 56% Retained Region 2 Smallest Difference: 15% Region 4 0 1461 1462 1469 1478 1488 1491 1498 1510 1531 1537 1559 1562 1563 1582 1583 1457 1459 1482 1495 1497 1506 1509 1511 1543 1545 1547 1561 1567 1569 1584 1456 1460 1468 1470 1476 1484 1505 1532 1536 1538 1540 1550 1553 1565 1571 1578 1581 1474 1501 1502 1503 1514 1516 1517 1518 1526 1534 1539 1542 1544 1548 1555 1560 1564 1574 1576 1467 1472 1477 1479 1481 1487 1490 1492 1493 1499 1500 1513 1521 1525 1528 1533 1552 1568 1570 1579 1458 1466 1473 1483 1504 1507 1512 1520 1527 1535 1549 1551 1572 1573 1577 1453 1454 1455 1463 1464 1471 1485 1486 1489 1494 1508 1515 1519 1523 1529 1530 1541 1566 1580 1465 1475 1480 1496 1522 1524 1546 1554 1556 1557 1558 1575 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Regions
% Teachers Exciting the System Variability in Exit Rate, 2016-17 WITHIN REGIONS Less variability within regions for exiting than staying Largest Difference: 17% Region 1 25 20 15 10 5 12% 11% 11% 11% 11% 11% 9% 12% ACROSS DIVISIONS Highest: 22% Exited Region 1 Lowest: 4% Exited Region 7 Smallest Difference: 8% Region 2 0 1453 1454 1465 1487 1509 1512 1517 1526 1534 1535 1541 1544 1557 1562 1583 1471 1473 1485 1486 1490 1493 1505 1506 1510 1515 1536 1539 1547 1554 1572 1456 1466 1475 1479 1489 1491 1500 1502 1520 1525 1529 1538 1564 1566 1567 1571 1574 1460 1463 1474 1477 1478 1481 1488 1494 1508 1511 1518 1521 1527 1533 1540 1545 1551 1559 1577 1461 1462 1470 1472 1495 1503 1504 1513 1516 1519 1522 1531 1537 1542 1555 1558 1565 1568 1569 1570 1458 1459 1464 1476 1480 1484 1498 1507 1523 1546 1549 1556 1561 1563 1575 1457 1483 1496 1499 1501 1514 1528 1530 1532 1548 1550 1553 1560 1573 1578 1579 1580 1582 1584 1455 1467 1468 1469 1482 1492 1497 1524 1543 1552 1576 1581 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Regions
Some Exiting Teachers Return to the Classroom Returning after a Pooled % By Leaving Cohort Minimum Maximum 1-Year Break 10.1% 7.5% 14.3% 2-Year Break 4.4% 2.8% 6.3% 3-Year Break 2.8% 2.0% 4.2% 4-Year Break 2.0% 1.5% 2.6% 5-Year Break 1.6% 1.2% 2.6% 80% of exiting teachers have not returned the classroom within 5 years 78% of teachers who exited in 2005-06 had not returned the classroom after 11 years Of those observed returning to the classroom: 34% return to same school, 29% return to another school in same division, and 37% return to a different division
Teacher Retention: A Summary of the Literature Primarily an issue for: Evidence-based Proximal Distal Policies Outcomes Outcomes Some certification areas: STEM Special education English language learners Some students: Low-income Low-performing Minority Some teachers: Early career Alternately certified Late hires Strong school leadership Targeted financial incentives Better teacher recruitment SOURCE: Katz (2018) Improve school climate Improve teacher retention Improve teacher quality Improve student outcomes
% Teachers Staying at Current School Statewide Trends in School-level Retention Rates 88 87 86 Retention Rates by Year 87.5% 85 84 83 82 81 82.0% 84.0% 83.0% 83.8% 82.2% 82.1% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 School Year (fall)
% Teachers Transferring Schools Statewide Trends in School Transfer Rates 7 6.8% Transfer Rates by Year 6.8% 6.5 6.2% 6 5.7% 5.5 5 5.3% 4.5 4 4.5% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 School Year (fall)
Statewide Trends in Exit Rates 12 11.2% Exit Rates by Year 11.3% 11.6% 11 10 10.6% 11.1% 9 8 7.9% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 School Year (fall)
% Teachers Staying at Current School Change in Student Enrollment, 2005-06 to 2017-18 Retention Rates Exit Rates 90 17 87 84 81 78 15 13 11 9 7 5 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) School Year (fall) LOSS Loss Growth GROWTH LOSS Loss Growth GROWTH
% Teachers Staying at Current School Change in Size of Teacher Workforce, 2005-06 to 2017-18 Retention Rates Exit Rates 90 17 87 84 81 78 15 13 11 9 7 5 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) School Year (fall) LOSS Loss Growth GROWTH LOSS Loss Growth GROWTH
% Teachers Staying at Current School Location of Undergraduate Institution In-state: 56% Out-of-State: 42% Out-of-Country: 2% Retention Rates Exit Rates 90 88 86 84 82 80 78 76 74 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) In-State Out-of-State Out-of-Country 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) In-State Out-of-State Out-of-Country
% Teachers Staying at Current School Gender Retention Rates 79% Female, 21% Male Exit Rates 90 14 88 86 84 82 80 12 10 8 6 4 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) School Year (fall) Female Male Female Male
% Teachers Staying at Current School Subject Taught Retention Rates Exit Rates 90 24 86 82 78 74 70 20 16 12 8 4 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) Math Science Special Ed ESL 0 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 School Year (fall) Math Science Special Ed ESL
% Teachers Leaving Current School Age: Attrition Rates Follow a U-Shape % Teachers Leaving Current School by Age (Transfers + Exiters) 26 22 18 14 10 Leaving the Profession and Searching for Better Fit Retirements 22 26 30 34 38 42 46 50 54 58 62 Age of Teacher
Identifying 1 st Time Teacher Cohorts Defined using all public schools Step 1: Assigned individuals to cohorts based on the year first observed Dropped 2005-06 Step 2: Applied restrictions to first observations Must be a full-time teacher (no part-time teachers or administrators) Must be teaching in a county, city, or town division Must have license issued within the last two years
# First-Time Teachers Cohort Sizes Varied Considerably # First-Time Teachers by Year 8000 7,945 7,338 7000 6000 5000 4000 6,472 3,722 4,948 5,930 5,248 5,473 6,086 6,279 2009 Cohort was 53% smaller than the 2006 Cohort 6,492 5,911 2017 Cohort was 26% smaller than the 2006 Cohort 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 School Year (fall)
% Teachers Leaving Current School Attrition by Years of Teaching Experience 15 13 Issues involving Continuing Contracts? 11 9 7 5 22% do not return to their school after their 1 st year 14% do not return to their school after their 11th year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Transfer to Another School Exit the System
% Teachers Time to First Separation: Initial School and System % Teachers 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 50% of first-time teachers have left their initial school after 4 years 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Remain a Teacher in Virginia Remain at Initial School 50% of first-time teachers are still teaching in Virginia after 11 years
% Teachers Transferring Schools School Poverty ~ Free/Reduced-Price Lunch Eligibility Transfer Rates Exit Rates 18 18 15 12 9 6 3 15 12 9 6 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest)
% Teachers Transferring Schools Academic Performance ~ SOL Reading Pass Rates Transfer Rates Exit Rates 14 17 11 8 5 2 14 11 8 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest)
% Teachers Missing Race/Ethnicity Racial/Ethnicity Diversity of 1 st Year Teachers Race/Ethnicity Composition 9.9% are Missing Race/Ethnicity 40 80% 13% 4% 3% % Teachers Missing Race/Ethnicity 30 20 10 9.0% 10.3% 26.4% 33.1% 12.4% 8.4% 6.6% 7.0% Race/Ethnicity of 1st Time Teachers Black Hispanic Other White 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 1st Year Teacher Cohort
% Teachers Transferring Schools Teacher Race/Ethnicity Transfer Rates Exit Rates 22 25 17 12 7 2 20 15 10 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Black Hispanic White 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Black Hispanic White
% Teachers Transferring Schools License Type 29% = Collegiate Professional, 29% = Post-Graduate Professional, 30% = Provisional, 8% = Provisional-SpecEd, 4% = Provisional-Career Switcher Transfer Rates Exit Rates 14 18 11 8 5 2 15 12 9 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Collegiate Post-Grad Any Provisional 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Collegiate Post-Grad Any Provisional
Route to Endorsement One route for each endorsement a teacher holds 73% have 1 endorsement 21% have 2 5% have 3 < 2% have between 4 and 7 Added to electronic licensure data in 2013 2014 Cohort onwards Route To Endorsement % Approved In-State Program 34% Alternate Route 31% 12 routes to an endorsement Approved In-State Program Alternate Route Reciprocity Testing Reciprocity Transcript Review Career Switcher Out-of-State License Out-of-State Approved Program 73% 16% 68% 33% 37% Testing 6%
% Teachers Transferring Schools Retention by Route to Endorsement Transfer Rates Exit Rates 18 18 15 12 9 6 15 12 9 6 1 2 3 Years of Teaching Experience In-state Prog Alternate Route Reciprocity 1 2 3 Years of Teaching Experience In-state Prog Alternate Route Reciprocity
1 st Time Teachers by Preparation Programs: 2014-15 to 2017-18 18 Had Trained at Least 100 Teachers 19 Had Trained Less than 100 Teachers James Madison U Old Dominion U George Mason U Liberty U Longwood U Virginia Commonwealth U Radford U U of Virginia Mary Baldwin U Virginia Tech U of Mary Washington Christopher Newport U C of William and Mary Marymount U Bridgewater C U of Richmond College at Wise Lynchburg C 338 261 254 248 227 221 163 155 116 109 102 827 723 588 566 566 534 1057 Shenandoah U Regent U Norfolk State U Emory and Henry C Virginia State U Eastern Mennonite U Averett U Roanoke C Virginia Wesleyan C Randolph-Macon C Hollins U Ferrum C Randolph C Bluefield C Hampton U Virginia Union U Sweet Briar C Washington and Lee U Virginia Intermont C 98 96 83 72 66 59 56 55 45 44 42 37 37 35 33 15 14 13 10 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 # of 1st Time Teachers 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 # of 1st Time Teachers
Retention by Preparation Program: Transfer Rates % Teacher-Years Transferring Schools % Teacher-Years Exiting the System 20 19 Transfer Rate > Exit Rate 1 Transfer Rate = Exit Rate 9 Transfer Rate < Exit Rate 20 Averaged over first 3 years of teaching Exit Rates 15 10 5 % Teacher-Years Exiting System 14 percentage point spread 11 percentage point spread 15 10 5 0 3 4 5 7 8 91 1213141516181920232425262728293031323 3436 Preparation Programs 0 5 6 7 8 9101 13141617181920212 242526272829303132343637 Preparation Programs Program must have >= 60 teacher-year observations over the 3 years to be shown.
Key Takeaways ~ informing policy landscape & opportunities Ongoing redistribution of students and teachers which, in contracting divisions, lowers the retention rate and increases transfers Significant variation in teacher turnover across divisions suggesting the importance of local context Emergence of a gender gap with females less likely to be retained and more likely to exit Importance of focusing on teachers at the beginning of their careers 50% have left their first school after 4 years hiring processes and job match 50% remain teachers in Virginia after 11 years Associations with student poverty and academic performance Teacher workforce diversity the first 5 years are crucial Higher exit rates among teachers with a Provisional License suggests some are struggling to transition to a Professional License Higher exit rates among teachers using reciprocity to earn an endorsement Significant variation in teacher turnover by preparation programs
Future Research Directions Develop and execute a research agenda on Virginia s teacher workforce Link teachers to Students they teach Salaries they earn Working conditions and school climate Community characteristics, e.g. alternate job opportunities Unpack differences by teacher preparation programs Map the flow of teachers from programs to schools Understand how the context of those schools differ across programs Learn about local teacher retention efforts Recruitment
now for Your Questions
Academic Performance ~ SOL Math Pass Rates Transfer Rates Exit Rates 14 17 11 8 5 2 14 11 8 5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Years of Teaching Experience Q1 (lowest) Q2 Q3 Q4 (highest)