E-textbooks : will there be a role for the college bookstore in their distribution?

Transcription

1 University of Montana ScholarWorks at University of Montana Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers Graduate School 2002 E-textbooks : will there be a role for the college bookstore in their distribution? Anne E. Iverson The University of Montana Let us know how access to this document benefits you. Follow this and additional works at: Recommended Citation Iverson, Anne E., "E-textbooks : will there be a role for the college bookstore in their distribution?" (2002). Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at ScholarWorks at University of Montana. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks at University of Montana. For more information, please contact scholarworks@mso.umt.edu.

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4 E-Textbooks: Will There Be a Role for the College Bookstore in their Distribution? by Anne E. Iverson B.A. University of Colorado 1982 J.D. University of Colorado 1986 Presented in partial fulfîument of the requirements For the degree of Master of Business Administration The University of Montana May 2002 Approved by: Chairperson Dean, Graduate School Date Ç ^

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6 Abstract Iverson, Anne E M.B.A., May 2002 Business E-Textbooks: Will There Be a Role for the College Bookstore in their Distribution? Chairperson: Maureen Fleming The Bookstore at the University of Montana faces an uncertain future with the possible introduction of electronic textbooks on campus. Traditionally existing in an environment with little or no competition, e-textbooks may alter the Bookstore s competitive landscape. The Bookstore at UM is a monopoly. Virtually all student textbooks are purchased through the Bookstore. The Bookstore s core competencies are customer service and rights management. In an effort to serve its student customers better the Bookstore has come to rely increasingly on selling used textbooks. Publishers do not like the market in used textbooks because they receive no money from the sale of used books. As a consequence, publishers are pushing for the adoption of e-textbooks, which cannot be returned and then resold as used books. E-books are any book that is delivered digitally. E-textbooks are e-books in an educational market. E-books may alter publishing dramatically by giving authors and publishers the opportunity to reach readers directly, bypassing their traditional intermediary, the bookstore. E-textbooks can be delivered and accessed in a variety of ways. Some can only be accessed via the World Wide Web. Others arc downloadable and printable. All e- textbooks offer a variety of customization options for the professor and the students. E- textbooks may not be better for student use than the traditional, printed textbook, but publishers are pushing for their adoption. The Bookstore can respond to e-textbooks in a number of ways. First the Bookstore could do nothing and wait to see what happens, or the Bookstore could be proactive and go out and seek ways to increase its digital competencies. This paper advocates a proactive response.

7 I. Preface The research for this paper was completed in June The information on the Bookstore at the University of Montana was provided by the manager, Bryan Thornton, and reflects sales and margins at that time. Since then, various companies mentioned in this paper have either changed their business model or gone out of business entirely. A few of the companies continue to do well. Versaware and WiZeUp both closed their doors. Varsity completely changed its business model to act as a book wholesaler for high schools and private colleges. netlibrary, the parent company of MetaText is in bankruptcy, but if approved by the bankruptcy court, it will be acquired by OCLC (the Online Computer Library Center) (Milliot and Reed 2002). Other companies continue in one form or another. Questia is still in business as a subscription service geared towards students. Rosetta continues to be an irritant to Random House after Random House failed to get a preliminary injunction against the e-book provider (Zeitchik 2002). The Primis Online division of McGraw-Hill is still alive and well. Despite the failures, industry observers still believe that e-books have a future. According to Jim Lichtenberg, president of the consulting firm Lightspeed, there have been successful e-book companies. Lichtenberg observes, the digital delivery of information has been growing quite nicely (Milliot and Reed 2002). The area where digital delivery is growing the fastest is in the education market. Thomson Learning can attribute increasing percentages of its revenues to electronic publishing. Even with the failures, analysts continue to be optimistic, especially about the academic market, which means that the subject matter of this paper is still relevant. What the failures show is that this area is still in flux, and the various interested parties can still affect the outcome. On a personal note, some of the information on the general book trade comes from my ten years o f experience in the publishing industry. I l l

8 Table of Contents Abstract... " Preface... i" List of figures...iv I. Introduction... 1 II. Background...2 III. The Campus Bookstore...6 A. The text selection process...6 B. Course readers... 8 C. The Bookstore s core competencies... 9 D. The relationship between college bookstores and textbook publishers...9 IV. Possible Consequences from the Use of E-Textbooks at UM...11 A. Impacts on the Bookstore...11 B. Impacts of electronic books on the campus community V. What is an E-Book? A. E-book issues Copyright issues Delivery issues Content providers Market projections for general e-books...15 B. The changing nature of publishing Changes in the relationship between publisher and author The changing relationship between publisher and reader...18 VI. E-Textbooks A. Market projections for e-textbooks...21 B. The business model...22 C. The participants MetaText WiZeUp Primis Online...29 D. Reactions to e-texts from users...31 VII. Options for the Bookstore at The University of Montana...35 A. Do nothing...35 B. Provide course readers as CD-ROMs...36 C. Set up a pilot program for downloadable texts D. Establish a pilot program with password cards E. Sponsor a study with a willing professor VIII. Conclusion References...42 IV

9 List of Figures Figure 1: Porter s Five Fources... 3 Figure 2: Traditional bookstore supply chain... 7 Figure 3: E-book supply chain Figure 4; Publishers supply chain for e-textbooks Figure 5: The MetaText supply chain...25 Figure 6: WiZeUp s supply chain Figure 7: Primis Online supply chain...30 Figure 8: SWOT analysis... 41

10 I. Introduction Traditionally, bookstores on medium-sized campuses, such as the University of Montana, had a secure existence. There was little or no competition. Students had no option but to purchase their textbooks from the campus bookstore. While in the past college bookstores such as the Bookstore at the University of Montana have relied on their monopoly status to provide adequate revenue, the future for college bookstores is anything but secure. After successfully weathering the onslaught of the online textbook sellers such as Varsity.com, campus bookstores now face a new threat electronic textbooks (e-textbooks). One interesting aspect o f this threat is that it comes from several areas. Not only are there electronic textbook clearinghouse companies that want to sell textbooks from a variety of publishers to students, but at the same time publishers and authors are trying to sell e-textbooks directly to students. What is the best way for the UM Bookstore to meet this challenge? Should it wait and see what happens to these various electronic participants? No, the Bookstore should take an active role and become a party in the digital textbook revolution. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the way digital texts might affect the Bookstore and to suggest steps the Bookstore can take to meet that challenge. In the past, although the Bookstore s environment was stable, there were outside influences. Students blamed the bookstore for the rising costs of textbooks, even though the publishers are the ones that set the price. Publishers blamed the college bookstores for an erosion in their profits linked to the increasing popularity of used books. Now there is a new bookstore antagonist the purveyors o f e-textbooks. These new cyberintermediaries threaten the bookstores in a different way. Many o f them anticipate

11 bypassing the bookstore to sell textbooks directly to the students. (See figure 1 for an illustration using Porter s Five Forces Model to show the changing bookstore environment). Despite the many new players in the bookstore environment and their substantial economic strength, the Bookstore at the University o f Montana still has the ability to thrive. The Bookstore needs to reinforce its current strengths in customer service and rights management. The Bookstore can also start a pilot project on digital delivery. By taking these small steps, the Bookstore can ensure its position as a continuing fixture in the campus community. II. Background College bookstores play an important role in the campus community by providing services necessary to students and professors. These bookstores have been part of the bedrock upon which the campus foundation is laid they have been an integral part of the campus community for years. Yet, in the electronic age, college bookstores are facing an uncertain future. E-textbooks have the potential to erode the position of the university bookstore. Currently, the demand for e-textbooks is small, but the market is likely to grow in the coming years as students who are comfortable reading from computer screens demand more titles in an electronic format. Since most of the current participants in the e-textbook marketplace want to sell directly to students, there is the potential for campus bookstores to lose a significant portion of their current business. However, college bookstores have the potential to thrive in the future by focusing on their core competency of customer service and reinforcing their competency in rights management. As cyber learning grows, bookstores can evolve and continue to be a valuable asset to the campus community.

12 Figure 1: Porter s Five Forces: UM Bookstore before entry o f electronic-textbook providers Supplier Power: Not very great. Product is only distributed through the bookstore. No author power Substitutes: Few existing substitues Fact Packs also sold through bookstore Library reserve Rivalry: Little existing competition Online booksellers, Local bookstores Threat of new entrants; Minimal threat. Widespread failure o f online sellers. UM too small to support another textbook store Buyer Power Not powerful Can choose used books, but those are also sold through bookstore UM Bookstore after electronic books enter market Supplier Power: Increasing Publishers can sell directly to students Authors can self-publish Threat of new entrants: Ever increasing New companies entering market Self-publishers Rivalry: Increasing New market entrants Substitutes: Increasing pressure Electonic textbooks Library books Buyer power: Increasing Can buy electronic texts This before and after e-books version o f Porter's Five Forces Model illustrates the increased competition faced by campus bookstores. Whereas before the outside environment was relatively stable, this model shows destabilizing factors coming from all directions.

13 In the publishing industry, the main topic of discussion in the year 2000 was the subject o f e-books. According to Kirkpatrick (2000) of the New York Times, Authors, publishers and booksellers see in digital books their own fantasies and nightmares, usually shaped by the antagonisms of decades past. Electronic book startups appeared (and disappeared) with startling frequency. Stephen King released his book Riding the Bullet only in an electronic format. He also pulled the same book from the electronic network before its final installment because of disappointing sales and widespread piracy. New e-book readers using different formats seemed to appear every month. General book publishers also tried a variety of delivery methods, including selling direct to the public, selling through internet intermediaries, and using existing bookstores such as Barnes and Noble. The general book trade jumped into the market, was burned, changed directions, and continued to be relatively optimistic about the future of e-books, although one market analyst calls electronic books a solution in search of a problem (Kirkpatrick 2000). Slower to enter the electronic publishing fray were the educational publishers. Then towards the end of 2000, textbook publishers began to enter the market by partnering with Internet startups such as MetaText and WizeUp, as well as beginning work on internal electronic initiatives. Unlike the general book trade, which included bookstores as one of their distribution modules for electronic books, the educational publishers are currently avoiding selling electronic books through their historic intermediary, the college bookstore. There are several reasons for this. The cyberintermediaries such as MetaText and Versaware do not want to share their already small margin and need to re-coup their considerable start-up costs as quickly as possible. They

14 want to avoid diluting profits by making payments to another intermediary. The publishers would like to avoid the college bookstores largely because of the increasingly adversarial relationship between publishers and bookstores. This relationship has soured largely because of the used textbook market. Publishers hate the used book market. They do not make any money on the sale of a used book (Gainer 2001). Bookstores have embraced the used book market because it allows them to sell to students at a lower price and offers the potential of better margins for the bookstore. Textbook publishers see the electronic marketplace as a way to restore the lost prominence of the new book market. They hope to control electronic texts so that they cannot be sold as used books, and they want to sell these books directly to students, avoiding sharing the profits with the bookstore. What textbook publishers do not seem to be taking into account is the role of the bookstore within the campus community as a clearinghouse for information for professors and students. Also it is doubtful if publishers can match one of the bookstores key core competencies customer service when dealing with students as a cyber intermediary. Publishers exist to make money while many campus bookstores have more lofty goals. As a non-profit company the Bookstore at the University of Montana recognizes that students are the reason the University of Montana is here... The bookstore is here to help students succeed... We have the friendly, knowledgeable staff to help you every step along the way (Bookstore 2002). One of the primary reasons universities exist is to educate students, and the bookstores mission is to help students succeed. The campus bookstore needs to be able to adapt to fill new niches while focusing on its core competency of customer service.

15 Another competency of college bookstores that will be useful in the electronic era is their knowledge of rights management. When putting together reading packets for students, the bookstores obtain reproduction rights for all the readings contained therein. If college bookstores further develop this competency, they can become a small player in the digital marketplace by helping professors put together digital versions of course readers. Using the Bookstore at the University of Montana as an example, this paper will examine the Bookstore s role as a part of the campus community as well as its current relationship with textbook publishers. Then the possible impacts on the Bookstore of the introduction of e-textbooks will be discussed. In order to put the e-textbooks into an understandable context, there will be a brief look at e-books in general. This will be followed by a discussion of e-textbooks, the current players in the e-text market, and reactions to e-texts by users. Finally, this paper will examine the Bookstore s options, suggesting that by making a few changes in focus, the electronic publishing revolution might actually provide new opportunities for the college bookstore. III. The Campus Bookstore A. The text selection process As the primary outlet for textbook sales on the University of Montana campus, the Bookstore handles all the text adoptions and orders for the Missoula campus. Professors inform the Bookstore of their text selections before the end of the previous semester. The professors learn about texts in their field through a variety of sources: through publications in their discipline, at conventions, through word of mouth via colleagues, or via salespeople representing various textbook publishers. Enrollment estimates are then

16 provided to the Bookstore. The Bookstore will inform the professor if the price of the book seems particularly high or if there is a problem with availability. Next, the Bookstore puts that text on the buyback list meaning it will buy the book back from current University of Montana students at 65% of the cover price. Then the Bookstore gives the order to a wholesaler that buys the needed texts not acquired through the buyback process as either new or used books, depending on what is available. The wholesaler then holds these books until August to be shipped en masse, thus minimizing freight charges for the bookstore. If the textbook being ordered is a new edition, or if there are not enough used books available, then the Bookstore will order new books from the publisher. The supply chain below illustrates the tradition textbook process. Figure 2: Traditional Bookstore Supplv Chain Used books Authors Publishers B ookstore Students Professors In the traditional bookstore supply chain, the author writes the book, the publisher publishes the book, which is then sold to the bookstore. The publishers sales reps call on professors to encourage them to adopt the publisher's books. The professor orders the book through the bookstore. The bookstore sells the book to the students. At the end o f the semester the students may sell the book back to the bookstore Professors never have to deal directly with any publishers. While many of the instructors see sales reps from various textbook publishers, the faculty relies on the 7

17 bookstore to have the assigned texts in stock and to sell them to the students with a minimum of problems. At the beginning of every semester, students buy their books for their courses at the Bookstore. The Bookstore assists the students in finding the designated texts for their classes, and it also processes the students payment. Payment can take a variety of forms. Students can pay with check, cash, or credit card, and the bookstore also handles payment for scholarship and financial aid students whose grant or aid package reimburses the Bookstore after the purchase is made. At the University of Montana, approximately 60% of the student body receive some form of financial aid. Nationally, 55% of students receive some form o f financial assistance (Mulhauser 2001). B. Course readers Another service the bookstore performs is acquiring the rights for course readers supplemental readings instructors select for their classes. The Bookstore produces between readers per year. The use of readers on the University of Montana campus is growing. Readers are increasing in popularity for a variety of reasons, including, the rising cost of textbooks, and the desire to customize the reading material to highlight the subject areas that the professor teaching the course believes are the most important. Instructors have to give the Bookstore advance notice of which articles they will use. The Bookstore then acquires the right to use the articles selected from the copyright holder. It usually takes about two weeks to acquire the rights to use the articles, but it can take as much as six weeks. Royalties are paid by the Bookstore after the sales are made, similar to the standard relationship between an author and publisher. The articles can come from a variety of sources including periodicals, books.

18 and textbooks. The Bookstore s goal with the sale of readers is to cover its expenses associated with the development of a course s reader. C. The Bookstore s core competencies The Bookstore has developed core competencies in customer service and rights management. The customer service competency applies to both students and professors. The Bookstore s web page specifies that providing customer service to students is one of its primary goals. The rights management competency was acquired through its experience in developing course readers. Both of these competencies are likely to be critical in the increasingly competitive environment the Bookstore will face. D. The relationship between college bookstores and textbook publishers Over the last couple of decades the relationship between campus bookstores and publishers has soured. Bookstores are selling an increasing number of used textbooks. Publishers see no revenue from these sales. As a result, publishers try to do everything they can to minimize used book sales by releasing frequent new editions and by bundling electronic material with new texts (Call 2001). Meanwhile, bookstores are trying to sell more used books because students are happier paying the lower price and because bookstores can make a better margin on used text sales. At the University of Montana, 32% of the textbook sales are used books. The Bookstore acquires used books through two sources: UM students and nationwide wholesalers. Used books are sold to students at 75% of the new-book price. Students who participate in the buyback receive 65% of the new-book price for the books they sell back. Through used-book wholesalers, the bookstore receives a 40% discount on used books. On new texts, publishers give the bookstore a 20% discount. Thus, the

19 Bookstore s margin on sales is: 10% on sales of books bought back from students, 35% on books purchased from used book wholesalers, and 20% on new books. Overall, campus bookstores get a wider margin on sales of used textbooks. However, the Bookstore at the University of Montana buys as many books as they can from students at UM as a service to the campus community. Used books also make sense for a bookstore because it likes to maintain a good relationship with the student population on campus and students appreciate paying the lower price of used texts (Thornton 2001). On the other hand, publishers do not like the used book market. They would like to see the used book market disappear. They receive no income on a book the second time it is sold. The only time the publisher gets consistently good sales for a title is in the first year it is released. According to Allan Gainer, a sales representative for Houghton Mifflin, publishers sales are almost flat after the first year of a book s release. Publishers have been fighting this trend through packaging free items with the purchase of a new textbook and through custom publishing. But even in custom publishing, bookstores have been buying back the texts and then reselling them. Publishers see e-textbooks as a possible way to eliminate the used book market. Many publishers and other e-text providers are talking about bypassing the college bookstore entirely with e-texts. Publishers would like to maintain their relationship with professors through their sales reps. Professors would select the e-text for use in their classes, and then students would go to the publisher s web site and buy the book using a credit card. Publishers are also considering other sales routes, but the adversarial nature of the relationship between bookstores and publishers has led to the publishers consideration of the elimination of the college bookstore as an important intermediary. 10

20 Other publishers do not see direct sales to students as a panacea to their woes, Bob Christie, CEO of Thomson Learning has his doubts about how well his company will do selling directly to students. He says, consumer marketing is not something we ve done well in the past (Brown 2001). IV. Possible consequences from the use of e-textbooks at UM A. Impacts on the Bookstore Since 42% of the Bookstore s sales come from the sale of textbooks, losing that component of its business would have a dramatic effect on its bottom line. However, the day when e-textbooks completely replace printed books is a long way in the future. The most likely scenario is that a few professors in a few specialized classes would start using e-texts. Initially, these sales would have a minimal impact on the Bookstore s profitability. Potential long-term consequences might not be as harmless. Publishers will probably develop e-texts for the big classes, such as Introductory Biology, and that could hurt the Bookstore. Currently, e-textbooks are in their infancy. A viable business model has yet to be developed. Publishers are entering into partnerships with various e-book developers (Brown 2001). The Bookstore should get involved in the e-textbooks evolutionary process, while the distribution model for e-textbooks is still in the development stage and possibly influence the direction taken. B. Impact of electronic books on the campus community If publishers bypass the Bookstore to sell to students directly, professors will have more responsibilities. Students who have trouble accessing their e-books are likely to contact their professor. Professors will have to make sure if they adopt a book that it is currently available on the web they will not be able to rely on the Bookstore to get the 11

21 texts in stock. And if the Bookstore becomes so weakened financially that it is forced to close, that would leave a big void in the campus community. The Bookstore at UM not only sells books and supplies, but it is also a social anchor in the University Center. It provides a place to meet as well as shop. E-textbooks have the potential to greatly change the way the campus community operates. V. What is an E-Book? Before this paper discusses the future of electronic textbooks, some basic groundwork needs to be explored. Issues to discuss are; what is an e-book, how can it be accessed, and who are some of the potential players. Electronic books, or e-books, can encompass a variety of different formats. For the purposes of this paper, an electronic book is a book that is stored digitally. It can be stored on a host s web site, on a CD- ROM, or in an e-book reader. One key element of an e-book is how it is distributed and accessed. The different media lend themselves to different user expectations. One commentator, Stephen Cole of EBooks.com, an Australian company, has divided e-book reading into two categories: Interactive reading and immersive reading, also called entertainment or leisure reading (Costello 2001). Leisure reading, according to Cole, is what a hand held device is best suited for, while interactive reading needs to be viewed using a PC (Costello 2001). A. E-Book issues The current issues seem to change almost daily in the emerging field of e-books. Questions revolve around deliveiy, copyright, format standards, author royalties as well as consumer demand. A perennial favorite is whether or not anybody is going to buy e- books. Another important question is what kind of content should be provided using this 12

22 medium. All of these problems have to be resolved before e-books can emerge as a mainstream product. 1. Copyright issues Some industry watchers believe that copyright will be one of the main issues that decides whether and how e-books are developed (Morena 2001). One recent Supreme Court case, Tasini v. The New York Times discussed the issue of whether freelance writers must give permission before their work is entered into a digital database (Reid 2001). The issue of copyright has been in the news with the recent dispute between Random House, a print publisher, and Rosetta Books, an e-book distributor. Rosetta acquired the digital rights to books that Random House already published in a print edition. Random House argues that the rights belong to it. Rosetta went to the authors to acquire the copyright, bypassing Random House, These rights were for backlist titles of respected authors such as Kurt Vonnegut and William Stryon (Rose 2001). Random House sued Rosetta claiming that its contracts covered the electronic rights, while Rosetta and the authors argued that since the contracts did not specifically enumerate such electronic rights, they were thus excluded. The case has yet to be decided by a jury, but the court did deny Random House s request for a preliminary injunction (Kirkpatrick 2001). Copyright is an important issue in the development of e-books and will affect whether large publishers develop the product or whether smaller, specialized companies will come to dominate the market. Backlist sales are very important for a general book publisher such as Random House. It is a rare book that makes a general book publisher 13

23 any money during the first year or so of its existence. Even if a book sells veiy well, there are author advances and royalties for the publisher to pay. There are also production and marketing costs. In its first season, a book gets all the splash and help it s going to get jfrom its publisher. After that, a book goes on the publisher s backlist, where it hopefully continues as a strong seller to help the publisher recoup the costs it has already expended. If it does not, a publisher will cut it loose and quit reprinting the title. Books like Vonnegut s and Stryon s are a publisher s gold mine. They keep selling well, year after year, with little or no marketing. Vonnegut s works will always be in print, and Random House wants exclusive rights to that gold mine in both the print and digital form. 2. Delivery issues Resolving copyright issues is one of the important building blocks for electronic books, but another question that has yet to be decided is how people will access e-books. Will people read them on a computer that is accessing the book via the World Wide Web? Will they download the information from the web or from a kiosk in a bookstore to read later on a computer? Will people read electronic books on dedicated e-book readers? Or, will they use a personal digital assistant to access the information? Maybe electronic books will be accessed using all of these methods, or maybe there will be some method that has not been invented yet. Then there is the dispute over which software will be used to read e-books. Will it be Adobe s Glassbook Readers, Microsoft s MS Reader, Gemstar s software, or another alternative (Kirkpatrick 2001a)? As of early 2001, there were four main content formats for the distribution of e- books; Microsoft s MS Reader, Gemstar s ebook, Adobe s Glassbook, and a few assorted providers for the Palm platform, such as Peanut Press s Reader (Lewis 2001). 14

24 All of these systems are incompatible with one another. Unlike the music industry where Sony, Panasonic, and Magnavox s equipment can all play the same compact disks, the publishing industry is uncooperative. This lack of a set standard may hamper the development of e-books for recreational reading. None of these standards has emerged as the dominant standard. 3. Content providers Despite the problems caused by the lack of a standard format for electronic books, there seems to be no limit to the number of companies that want to provide e-book content. Questia, netlibrary, Rosetta, Peanut Press, and Amazon are just a few of the e- book players. Already at least one e-book company has quit selling directly to the public. MightyWords, of which Barnes & Noble owns half the stock, announced in December 2000, that it would syndicate its texts to other sites rather than sell directly to consumers (White 2000). Different entities are focusing on different segments of the book market. netlibrary, as the name suggests, focuses on the library market, while one of its divisions, MetaText, focuses on the textbook market. Questia also focuses on the academic market, but it is marketing directly to students and other academics, not through intermediaries such as libraries. Amazon is focusing on the direct consumer market. All of these companies are trying to find a niche in which they can be successful, but the question remains whether consumers are ready to read books electronically. 4. Market projections fo r general e-books Just about everyone in the book business thinks that e-books will be successful, but no one knows when. The co-founder of Xlibris saw a rocky future ahead in October 2000: no one has figured out a good way to distribute e-books or even what to charge 15

25 (Rose 2000b). The same commentator believes the e-books will eventually succeed, but it will take time. Anderson Consulting projected that the market for e-book devices will reach $28 million by 2005, while the sales for e-books in the same period to be between $1 to $3.4 billion (Romita 2000). Another recent report on e-book sales by Forrester anticipates that digital delivery of custom-printed books, e-textbooks, and general e- books will account for revenues of $7.8 billion by 2005 (Peanutpress 2001). Other commentators on the book business believe that the digitally-delivered book will eventually revolutionize the entire book business, perhaps even putting most retail booksellers out of business (Epstein 2000). B. The changing nature of publishing For years publishers have gone about their business in pretty much the same way. They sign promising authors, offer standard royalties to mid-list authors, offer larger royalties to respected authors, and they give outrageous royalties to star authors. Publishers market and promote the front list (that season s releases), and let the backlist languish with little promotion. Yet the backlist is what makes the publishers money. Traditionally, publishers have had most of the power in the author/publisher relationship. Bookstores are far more likely to carry a book published by a mainstream publisher. In fact, many bookstores order a few of every title in the frontlist of a large publisher such as Random House. At the other end of the publishing continuum, bookstores are reluctant to carry a book that is self-published by an author. There are very good reasons for this the content may not be any good, and there is no marketing power behind such titles. Self-publishing has not been very attractive to authors either. 16

26 because the cost of printing, binding, and then distributing a book is not small. E-books have the potential to change the entire publishing dynamic. Distribution of digital books has the potential to equalize the playing field between author and publisher. Digital books do not cost as much as printed books to produce since one of the major costs in publishing, printing, is bypassed. One major way to distribute digital texts will be over the Internet, and large publishers might not have as great of an advantage on the Web. Authors and smaller publishers can market and sell their books to consumers directly, bypassing bookstores that have been reluctant to carry their books, as well as other players in the standard distribution chain. Digital books do not have to be warehoused and shipped which is another big cost for traditional publishing and another barrier to entry for small publishers and authors. Another added benefit for publishers from digital books is a solution to the returns problem. Books are mostly sold on a returnable basis. That means that a publisher does not know what is really sold until months after a book leaves the publisher s warehouse. Some commentators, such as Jason Epstein, an editor with Random House as well as one of the founders of the New York Review o f Books, believe that the digital revolution will fundamentally change publishing and that the changes will be an improvement (Epstein 2000). No one knows for sure what the future of publishing will look like, but it is almost certain that the relationships between the players will be substantially different. Figure 3: E-Book supplv chain Authors can sell to consumers directly and bypass both the publisher and the bookstore. Authors Consumers Publishers Bookstore 17

27 1. Changes in the relationship between publisher and author With the advent of digital books authors have more bargaining power with publishers because they can threaten to go direct to their public through the Internet as was demonstrated by Stephen King. Author power has been explained as the gains in contract-bargaining power an author gets by threatening to use the Internet to go directly to his readers, circumventing the publisher (Hilts 2000). But is this a very great threat to publishers? Online publishing company MightyWords drastically cut back on its selfpublishing program because most of the authors did not do enough to help promote their books (Nawotka 2000). Some authors, like Stephen King, may be able to take their books directly to the public, bypassing the publisher, but other authors may use the Internet to augment the traditional distribution channels. At the same time, there is evidence that authors do have more power in the digital world. Random House has announced that it will share net revenues with authors from sales of e-books in a 50/50 split (Reid 2000). Traditionally, authors receive a 12% royalty on net sales of printed books. Some authors have successfully sold books digitally. Hard Shell Word Factory is an e-book publisher established by a romance writer who was turned down by the standard book publishers. The company sells about 6,000 electronic books a month for about $5 apiece (Kirkpatrick 2000). 2. The changing relationship between publisher and reader Traditionally, readers had to acquire a physical copy of books they wished to read from a bookseller. Publishers, especially the large ones, rarely sold directly to customers. Since publishers sell books through bookstores, they have little direct contact with readers. With front list titles, publishers tend to push what they think will sell, not 18

28 necessarily what readers want. This relationship could change with the increasing trend toward digitization. Customers will have more power because they will be able to seek out the books they want and get those titles delivered using the method they want. This means that publishers attitudes towards customers will have to change. One publisher at a recent conference stated that publishers will no longer be able to push the properties they want to sell, and they will have to communicate with readers and provide better customer service (Hilts 2001). E-books have the potential to change the publishing landscape. The standard distribution chain of author-publisher-distributor-bookstore-reader may not be the norm for much longer. This opens new possibilities for authors, readers, and small publishers. On the World Wide Web, large publishers may not be as able to dominate the market as they do today. Similar to the general book trade, the academic book market may be altered by the digital age. In fact, some commentators see digital textbooks as one of the big winners, while at the same time seeing no real future for general e-books (Business Wire 2000). While the large publishers will try to sell directly to students, opportunities may also develop for professors to self-publish, and for new, smaller players who are able to put together customized textbooks. VI. E-Textbooks An electronic textbook, for the purposes of this paper, is any textbook that is delivered digitally. The delivery method can either be through the World Wide Web, via a download from a server, by CD-ROM, or by using any other method where a print version does not have to be generated. 19

29 E-textbooks are shaking up the textbook publishing industry. In the past academic publishers were slow to embrace change. They did not have to change. Publishers complained about the increased used book sales, but business continued to be conducted as usual. Many of the same texts continued to be current through several generations of undergraduates. In 2000 that all changed. Harcourt, Houghton Mifflin, McGraw-Hill, Pearson, and Thomson all moved to take advantage of the opportunities provided by e-books. Many started digitizing texts, creating ways to put classes on line, and cooperating with distance-learning ventures (Shuchman 2000). These publishers suddenly realized that they had the content needed to participate in the Internet revolution. Many also saw a way to cut into the sales of used books. Thomson Learning, one of the largest textbook providers, is now the majority shareholder at WebCT, a company that puts courses online. In the meantime, e-texts have not really taken off, but publishers are willing to invest and gamble that there will be a market in the future (Shuchman 2000). Eliminating the used book market is one of the main reasons why textbook publishers are pursuing used books. Other reasons include the potential growth of on-line classes for which e-texts seem like a natural fit. Publishers also believe that the next generation of college students that grew up with computers may be more likely to embrace e-textbooks (Call 2001). While the market for general e-books has been slow to materialize, textbook publishers believe that things will be different in the educational market. These publishers hope that the academic market will be early adopters of the new electronic texts. There is some evidence to indicate that the education market is already adapting to new pedagogical opportunities offered through the World Wide Web. A recent study 20

30 commissioned by Pearson Education, Hungry Minds, Blackboard, and WebCT indicates that the demand for distance learning on the Internet is experiencing rapid growth (Mayfield 2000). The rapid development of e-leaming is simultaneously encouraging the growth of e-textbooks. Pearson is integrating distance learning and e-textbooks by forming alliances with Blackboard and others to provide integrated learning systems (Mayfield 2000). McGraw-Hill also believes that in the future the education market will move into an online learning environment. Anticipating this change, the company continues to invest in technology that implements that vision (Milliot 2001). Another reason why publishers are anxious to embrace the e-textbook market is the possibility of eliminating used book sales. It seems that sales of used books caused an antagonistic relationship between campus bookstores and academic publishers. According to Allan Gainer, a sales representative for Houghton-Mifflin, bookstores and publishers have been bumping heads over used books for years (Gainer 2001). That sentiment was echoed by reps from Prentice Hall and McGraw-Hill (Call 2001, and Armstrong 2001). According to Dan Tylman, a sales representative for Pearson, the publisher would love to eliminate the bookstore (Tylman 2001). Publishers view this used book situation as threatening their livelihoods, and experimenting with e-textbooks is just another way to try to make money. A. Market projections for e-textbooks While the market for general e-books has been slow to materialize, some analysts predict that more opportunity exists for the e-textbook market. One firm, Jupiter Research predicts that e-texts will make up about 5.6% of college textbook sales by

31 This compares to 2% of consumer-book sales (Brown 2001). In 1999, Thompson Learning earned 3% of its revenues from the sale of electronic resources. Thompson anticipates that in five years, 50% of its sales will be from electronic sources (White 2001). Other observers think that the appeal of e-texts will be very limited, capturing about five percent of the market (Call 2001). Analysts believe that colleges present such a fertile market for electronic texts because most universities have almost universal access to the World Wide Web. B. The business model To date, no dominant business model has appeared for the sale and delivery of e- textbooks. This seems to be the part of the equation that contains most of the unknown variables. Publishers are marketing e-texts on their own. Specialized companies such as MetaText and WiZeUp have been formed to deliver e-textbooks from a variety of publishers in their own proprietary format. And some professors are self-publishing and making their own books available through the Web. One publishing executive observed, Everyone s got partnerships with everyone these days. The winner will be the one with the best content) (Brown 2001). The interesting thing is that no one is sure which model will win. Figure 4: Publishers supply chain for e-textbooks Authors Publishers Students Sales Reps Professor Publishers can bypass the bookstore to sell directly to students. 22

32 The publishers that are establishing their own web sites to distribute electronic books are hoping for a bigger slice of the pie. Right now, the used book market annoys them, but they also see that the possibility of cutting out the bookstores might result in more profits for the publisher (Armstrong 2001). One downside to electronic books for the publishers is the huge expense involved in digitizing content. While most books are typeset digitally these days, the files do not automatically convert to the electronic textbook environment. Some companies such as MetaText use their own proprietary format. This involves even more time and expense to get the text ready for the final consumers. According to Bob Christie, president and chief executive of Thomson Learning, digitizing content is not only a lot of money, but it s something that is not going to pay for itself for a long time (White 2001). While content is undeniably important, the way the book is delivered is also very important. It has to facilitate learning. It has to be easy to use. Books are extremely portable and easy to use. So if a technology seeks to supplant the textbook, it has to work at least as well as a book and make sense for students and professors as well as for the publishers. C. The participants There are innumerable players in the e-textbook market. Some are very small self-publishers with only one product while some are very large, such as the major textbook publishers. At least a few of the current participants are strictly web-based. This means that their product cannot be downloaded to a personal computer. These e- texts can only be accessed while the reader is online. Others companies offer downloadable versions of textbooks. This paper will look primarily at three market 23

33 participants as representative of what is available in the e-textbook market. The first company is MetaText, a division of netlibrary. MetaText is completely web-based its product cannot be downloaded and must be read while online. MetaText partners with various publishers to acquire the texts that it offers. The second company is WiZeUp. WiZeUp s products can be accessed via the Web, but their texts are downloadable. Like MetaText, WizeUp partners with various academic publishers to offer a variety of products online. The third example used will be Primis Online. Primis is a McGraw-Hill company. Primis only sells McGraw-Hill texts via its online service. These three companies are trying to use three different approaches to selling texts on-line. 1. MetaText MetaText is a division of netlibrary. netlibrary focuses on the library market. MetaText focuses on the e-textbook market. MetaText is entirely web-based. Students cannot download the texts. These books can only be read via a computer that is logged on to the World Wide Web. Students cannot print MetaText books. How does the MetaText system work? A professor decides to adopt a MetaText book for use in a class. This instructor has probably learned about the text via the publisher s sales rep. The professor then assigns the book for his or her students. Each individual student goes to the MetaText web site and buys access to the book using a credit card. This is the only way a student can purchase a MetaText book. The student then has access to the book during the semester. 24