Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz

Transcription

1 Pre-COP IPCC Workshop in Poland Warsaw, Poland 2 October 2008 Climate change impacts: Polish perspective Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment Polish Academy of Sciences Poznań, Poland Scientific Director and Head of Laboratory of Climate and Water Resources

2 Introduction Observations Projections Final remarks

3 Inconvenient truth? It will be colder Is the global warming a business trick? Global fooling New ice age Scientists warn of large cooling

4 Introduction Observations Projections Final remarks

5 C 11,0 Mean annual air temperature in Warsaw ( ) WARSZAWA - OBSERWATORIUM ( ) ZMIENNOŚĆ ŚREDNIEJ ROCZNEJ TEMPERATURY POWIETRZA Courtesy of Prof. Halina Lorenc 10,0 9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 Dane Liniowy (Dane) y = 0,0067x + 6,9881 R 2 = 0,1922 4,0 lata

6 Mean temperatures of subsequent 12 months in 2006/2007 higher than ever in the history of observations. Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2008) Mean air temperature of consecutive 12-month periods for Northern Hemisphere, land only, January 1850 May Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2008)

7 LATA XII I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI Catalogue of droughts in Poland in Frequency of droughts has considerably increased, from one-in-five years in to one-in-two years in Since 1982: nearly permanent drought, with two non-drought spells Courtesy of Prof. Halina Lorenc ZIMOWO - WIOSENNE SYMPTOMY SUSZY SUSZA WIOSENNO - LETNIA

8 Tornadoes in Poland Courtesy: Prof. Halina Lorenc In In In 2006 In 2007 (white squall)

9 Karjaanjoki, Lohjanjarvi-Peltokoski (SF) Maximum annual river flow Rhine, Kaub (D) WCP-Water y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = y = x R 2 = Main, Schweinfurt (D) Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2004) Morava, Moravicany (CZ)

10 Year of occurrence of maximum flow (Source: Kundzewicz et al., 2004) The overall maxima for the period occurred more frequently in (46 times) than in (24 times) WCP-Water

11 Cryosphere is retreating. Studies of tidewater glaciers in Svalbard are the Polish speciality in the Arctic 2) EXTREME GLACIOLOGICAL PROCESSES IN THE ARCTIC CAUSE GLOBAL SEA LEVEL Polar RISE. and IN Arctic CONSEQUENCE track: LOW COASTS IN EUROPE ARE AFFECTED BY Positive albedo feedback BY HIGHER STORM SURGES. Positive methane feedback Photo by J.Jania (Svalbard, 1999)

12 1) ENHANCE OF CLIMATE WARMING BY SNOW/ICE PROCESESS IN THE NORTH. ignificant recession of Arctic glaciers has been noted during last century. Darker land or sea has been exposed and regional albedo changed Temperature grows Permafrost thaws Methane emission to the atmosphere 1999 Werenskiold Glacier, Spitsbergen, Svalbard Courtesy: Prof.. Jacek Jania

13 Introduction Observations Projections Final remarks

14 (25;30) (20;25) (15;20) (10;15) (5;10) (2;5) (0;2) Difference in number of days with temperature >=30 C and precipitation <=0.1 mm in summer, (A2) vs Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2006)

15 Probability of ripening of corn (FAO 270) in Poland for thermal conditions of and projections for Source: Górski & Kozyra (2004)

16 Wheat Rye Potato Sugar beet Sunflower Soybean Corn Crop projections for 2xCO2 and two climate models (GFDL, GISS), after Górski et al.

17 Zbigniew Pruszak & Elżbieta Zawadzka: Poland's 500-km coastline is exposed to a range of threats from climate changes and sea-level rise, in particular in the far-eastern and western regions of the Polish coast.

18 Summer Winter Changes of mortality risk as function of apparent, physiologically-sensed, temperature rise Source: Błażejczyk & Mc Gregor (2007)

19 Source: Prof. Leszek Starkel Regional distribution of climate-related threats in Poland

20 Changes in precipitation vs (A2, HadRM3-P) Mean precipitation Annual maximum 24h precipitation Source: Kundzewicz et al. (2006)

21 Milly, Betancourt, Falkenmark, Hirsch, Kundzewicz, Lettenmaier & Stouffer Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science. 1 Feb Projection of changes in annual runoff ( vs ), for SRES A1B. Colour represents a median from 12 models. Presence of colour means that 8 or more models agree as to the direction of change (hatching: agreement of 11 or 12 models).

22 Introduction Observations Projections Final remarks

23 There was an integrated national project on Extreme hydrometeorological events and their impacts, coordinated by Prof. Jacek Jania. Polish scientists have collaborated in multiple EU research projects, such as: MICE, ENSEMBLES, ADAM, WATCH, CRUE, etc. but Polish scientists have not been successful in launching the National Climate Programme yet. Hence the understanding of climate change, its impacts and adaptation is not comprehensive, being rather of a piece-meal nature.

24 Kundzewicz s involvement in IPCC products in : 1 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG2, Ch. 3, Coordinating Lead Author 2 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG2, Technical Summary 3 - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, WG2, Summary for Policymakers 4 - IPCC Synthesis Report 5 - IPCC Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers 6 - IPCC Technical Paper on Climate Change and Water, Coordinating Lead Author