Science & Innovation & Society

Transcription

1 Science & Innovation & Society Lauri Hetemäki Assistant Director, European Forest Insitute Professor, University of Eastern Finland Koli Forum, Koli, Finland, 11 September, 2015

2 Purpose and Outline How are science & innovation & society (people) impacting the bioieconomy development, and why do we need all of them? Demonstrate this through forest-based example, which is has wider significance to general bioeconomy development

3 The Case of Northern Forest-Based Sector What is the role of science & innovation & society (people) impacting the bioieconomy development in the future?

4 Presentation based on: Hetemäki, L (ed.). Future of the European Forest-Based Sector: Structural Changes Towards Bioeconomy. EFI What Science Can Tell Us, No. 6, 108 p. Download: ations/what_science_can_tell_us/6/

5 Motivation & Background

6 Nordic Countries and North American Forest-Based Sectors are Going Through Major Structural Changes Maybe the biggest changes for a century! 1. Climate Change 2. Emerging economies and changing competitive advantages 3. Increasing role of fast growing forest plantations in subtropics 4. Digital technology and media development many implications 5. New forest-based products (bioenergy, biomaterials, biorefineries, etc.) 6. Services - the big megatrend of the 21 st Century

7 Nordic Countries & NA forestbased sector are in Creative Destruction Joseph Schumpeter

8 Destructive processes include Declining demand for communication paper products, and stagnating demand for number of other forest products Very long economic slump in the EU since 2008 and its many impacts Move of some forest industry investments to fastgrowing markets in Asia, or low-cost production regions like South America

9 For the past centuries, forest products production was growing in European Union Examples of EU forest products production in index 1961 = Graphics Papers Continues growth, except few very short disruptions 200 Industrial Roundwood Sawnwood Graphics papers = paper products used for communication purposes, i.e., newsprint + printing and writing papers

10 But the last decade has been very different! EU forest products production in and trend proj Sawnwood 2007 = million tons or cub. meters Trend Projections ( ) Decline % from 2007 > 2014, Excl. packg. papers, which have been stable Data: FAOSTAT Paper 7 yrs slump Very unlikley Could be Structural & cyclical factors Long slump is likely to have also structural impacts

11 World Paper & Paperboard Production 2000 & 2013 European countries dropping out from the top 10 COUNTRY 2000 (mil. tons) 1. USA China Japan Canada Germany Finland Sweden France South Korea Italy 9 Data: FAO COUNTRY 2014 (mil. tons) 1. China 109 (+3 X) 2. USA Japan Germany South Korea Canada 11 (-half) 7. Sweden Finland Brazil India

12 Creative destruction enforces and enables a change

13 Innovations

14 In transformation to forest-based bioeconomy Science & Innovation & Society play central role

15 Renewal = Innovation 20 th Century forest sector was dominated by two silos : pulp and paper & wood products 21 st Century forest-based sector key features are diversification and cross-sectorial (traditional + energy + chemicals + pharmaceuticals + textiles + etc. and services)

16 Creative or innovative processes include Forest industry and other industries are changing strategies and business models, investing in new forest-based products New demand for old products, such as dissolving pulp for textiles or tall oil Demand is driven by the need to substitute nonsustainable products or food production disturbing raw materials with forest-based materials Basically, you can produce from woodfibre all the same products than from fossil raw materials

17 New forest based bioproducts: Some examples Forest biomass Increasing demand in textile markets to replace e.g. cotton and polyester Biofuels Increasing demand in transportation sector Increasing demand for low CO 2, healthy and cost competitive construction material

18 Services: the key megatrend

19 To what extent a country s forest-based sector will be a manufacturer and/or service provider? Some countries may not produce new forest products at the scale that it does today To this conclusion points the competitive advantages in global economies, and recent economic studies and statistics In many cases, services related to new products could create more value and employment than actual manufacturing of the products

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21 European economies and industries becoming servicizing Most likely will have a big impact also to forest-based sector But it seems that implications have hardly been analyzed Manufacturing products Services related to products

22 Need to push production possibility frontier outwards, reduces trade-offs Units of Services Frontier in 2015 Frontier in Units of bioeconomy products

23 Science role?

24 Basic science = science for science Applied science = science for innovation In the long-run, mutually dependent & supportive But in the short-run, it is a question of priorities (specially next decade or so)

25 Two types of motivation for research Source:

26 Science Incentives for Policy Support Policy making requires a good understanding of multiple and complex issues with wide coverage of different aspects, i.e., a synthesis on a topic Mainstream science is built to go the other way. Science structures and incentives have developed over time to look at more and more specialized entities or smaller focus areas There is a lack of synthesis reviews which can say what the science community knows on a particular topic, and what are the policy implications

27 Science-Policy Support: More needed! Policy makers feel that they do not get enough policy support from scientists (EC example) Science results dependent of framing of the research questions and interpretation of results Sometimes these seem to depend on region and type of research institute the scientists work Need more co-work and coordination between research groups and syntheses of the results for policy makers

28 All sciences needed Life-scieces and engineering sciences essential for new processes, compounds, and products However, the more ready they are for commercial launching, the more you need economics and policy sciences You need the latter also for supporting the policy making. Specially when there are trade-offs between different usages of natural resources

29 Society (people): the most important of the

30 The societal issues at stake: Clear rules and referee is needed (public goods and bads) Same rules for everyone as extensively as possible Rules should provide the incentives Rules facilitate the game

31 Important Uncertainty: future policies Net effects hard to quantify Renewable energy policy Policies impact more than ever How lasting and consistent? Many polices and cross linkages

32 What happens after Paris 2015?

33 IPCC recommendation* and forestbased bioeconomy go hand-in-hand CO 2 price in one form or an other (tradable permit, tax, hybrid) is going to be one essential tool to tackle climate change This would also be important for providing incentives for forest-based bioeconomy investments & development But is not without short-term challenges for some industries & level playing field *Reference: IPCC Synthesis Report, November 1,

34 How should the LULUCF sector be treated after COP21? Gert-Jan Nabuurs, Philipe DelaCote, Marc Hanewinkel, Marcus Lindner, Martin Nesbit, Markku Ollikainen & Annalisa Savaresi A new role for forest-based sector in the EU climate targets beyond 2020 EFI From Science to Policy -study to be published 1 December 2015, Paris

35 What does all this imply?

36 The Three Musketeers: all needed! If you drop any of these, you play the game with 1/3 less players Science Innovation Society

37 Some points for discussion: 1. Balancing basic and applied research and setting priorities in the short-run (next decade) 2. How to merge the needs of policy makers (society) and scientists incentives for policy support? 3. More cooperation and coordination between different research groups and bringing the results to policy makers 4. Science-business cooperation essential, but need also free research. Business does not always know what they need in 5-10 yrs time 5. Do not forget the importance of services!

38 Thank you! Photo: Eeva Oinonen 38