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1 1395/12/2 1395/3/ ( ) ( ). ( ) ( ) : h.faaljou@urmia.ac.ir molabahrami.ahmad@gmail.com hossienamiri@gmail.com ( ) 1396
2 90 24 / (Demombynes and Ozler, 2005)..( )....(Blau and Blau, 1982) (Allen,.1996) (Bourguignon, Nunez and.sanchez, 2003; Neumayer, 2005; Choe, 2008)
3 103.(Cook and Zarkin, 1985; Cantor and Land, 1985) 1 (1987)...(Fallahi and Rodriguez, 2014).... (1390) (1390) (1392) (1391).. 1. Chiricos
4 90 24 / 104 ( ) ( ) (Allen, 1996).....(Ibid.)..1-2.
5 105 2 (1985) 1 (1985) (1985) (1985)......(Fallahi and Rodriguez, 2014) Cook and Zarkin 2. Cantor and Land 3. Motivation Effects 4. Opportunity Effects
6 90 24 / (2005).. 2 (2008).. 3 (2009).. 1/46 4 (2012).. (2014) (1390) Demombynes and Ozler 2. Choe 3. Scorzafave and Soares 4. Chintarkarn and Herzer
7 107 (1390) (1391) (1392) ARDL (1989) y t m. i s i. s i y t. s i = 12,,..., m y t i = i si = i s i. i y t Markov Chain s i
8 90 24 / 108 :. s i P( s = j s, s,..., s ) = P( s = j s = i) = P t 1 2 t 1 t t 1 ij i P ij (1) 1 m P = Pij i, j= 12,,..., m π i.. j (1) : m i = 12,,.., m m j = 1 i P ij = 1 (2) y t t (3) : π t = [ π1 π 2.. π m]. s (Brock, 2008) π = π = t+ s P πt t+ 1 Pπ t y t :(Hamilton, 1989; Brock, 2008) yt = µ s + ϕ y (4) t s t t 1 + εt s t ε t (4).S t =0/1 1 (4).. MS-AR(1). MS-AR(1) q (2008) (2014) : 1. Probability Transition Matrix
9 109 yt = µ s + α t sx t t + α sx t t + α sx t t + α sx t t + α sx t t + α sx t t + α sx t t + ε (5) t. x 1t x 4 t x 3t x 2t y t (CPI) x 6t x 5t 1 α ist. i = 12,,..., 6 s s t =0. t = 1 : P00 1 P11 (6) P = P P P 11 P 00 1 P 00 1 P (Hamilton, 1994) OX-Metrixs6.2
10 90 24 / : :
11 :. 3 0/41 0/ /36.
12 90 24 / SHINT-t-test KSS SHINT-t-test -3/71-3/16-2/58-2/71-2/75-2/72-6/045-2/60-2/72-6/24-2/81-3/03-2/75-3/27-3/61 KSS.1 KSS -2/64-2/76-3/05-2/69-3/66-3/51-2/59-2/69-3/07-2/81-3/21-4/33-3/64-2/78-3/11 ) ( 1. Kapetanios and Shin and Shell (KSS) Test 2. Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Model (ESTAR). MATLAB.3
13 113 SHINT-t-test -4/55-2/82-3/86-4/28-2/70-2/78 KSS -3/42-3/82-2/76-3/87-3/00-3/32. -2/66 90 :. :.. 26/ /002.. OX.. 2
14 90 24 / /43-30/26-32/33 106/85 74/53 80/63. : µ 0 6/81 0/00 µ 1 9/51 ϕ 0/88 σ 0 0/082 0/00 σ 1 1/12 P 00 0/85 P 11 0/046 0/ 32 Nonlinear LR test 26/97. : /81 0/88 9/51
15 /05 0/ : ( ). ( ) 1392 (5)
16 90 24 / / t µ 0 3/01 6/25 0/00 µ 1 3/24 3/12 0/ 01 α 10 0/99 2/08 0/ 05 α 11 0/85 2/48 0/ 03 α 20 0/63 5/48 α 21 0/57 2/57 0/ 02 α 30 0/97 9/05 α 31 2/54 7/50 α 40 1/46 5/71 α 41 2/30 6/31 α 50 0/90 8/96 α 51 2/15 7/46 α 60-0/03-2/31 0/ 04 α 61-0/19-2/84 0/ 01 σ 0 3/53 3/52 σ 1 6/33 5/17 P 00 0/50 3/26 0/ 01 0/48 3/46 P 01 Log- likelihood -107/ 99 Nonlinear LR test 21/78 0/02. : 4.
17 117. 0/85 0/99.. 0/99. 0/85. 0/85. 0/ /57 0/63 0/57 0/63. 0/ /97 2/54.. 2/54 0/97
18 90 24 / /30 1/46. 1/46. 2/30. 0/ /15 0/9 2/15 0/9.. 1/25. 0/19 0/03 6/33 0/50. 3/ /48 ( ) ( ).
19 E E E E E E E : / /03 2 4/28 0/13 0/87 0/12. :. 5.
20 90 24 / real fitted. :..5
21 ) ( ) (. ( ) 0/97 0/99 1/46 ). ( 2/15 2/30 2/54.
22 90 24 / (1390) (1390). (1392).....
23 123 Ĥ.1.».(1384).2.(68)6.(1391).3.(29)8 ««( )».(1390).4.(3) 11. ( ).5 )».(1392).6.(6)2 «( (1390).7.(4)11 8. Allen, R. (1996). "Socioeconomic Conditions and Property Crime: a Comprehensive Review and Test of the Professional literature", American Journal of Economics and Sociology 55 (3). 9. Blau, J. R. and P. M. Blau (1982). "The Cost of Inequality: Metropolitan Structure and Violent Crime", American Sociological Review, 47 (1). 10. Bourguignon, F., J. Nunez and F. Sanchez (2003). "What Part of the Income Distribution Matters for Explaining Property Crime?", The Case of Colombia, Documento CEDE, Brock, C. (2008). Introductory Econometrics for Finance, Cambridge University Press. 12. Cantor, D. and K. C. Land (1985). "Unemployment and Crime Rates in the post-world War II United States: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis", American Sociological Review, 50 (3). 13. Chintarkarn, P. and D. Herzer (2012). "More Inequality, More Crime? A Panel Cointegration Analysis for the United States", Economic Letters, Chiricos, T. (1987). Rates of Crime and Unemployment: an Analysis of Aggregate Research Evidence, Social Problems, 34(2). 15. Choe, J. (2008). "Income Inequality and Crime in the United States", Economic Letters, 101(1).
24 90 24 / Cook, P. J. and G. A. Zarkin (1985). "Crime and the Business Cycle", The Journal of Legal Studies, 14 (1). 17. Demombynes, G. and B. Ozler (2005). "Crime and Local Inequality in South Africa", Journal of Development Economics, 72(2). 18. Fallahi, F. and G. Rodriguez (2014). "Link Between Unemployment and Crime in the US: A Markov-Switching Approach", Social Science Research, Hamilton, J. D. (1989). "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle", Econometrica, 57 (2). 20. (1994). Time Series Analysis, Princeton University Press. 21. Kapetanios, G., Y. Shin and A. Snell (2003). "Testing for a Unit Root in the Non-linear STAR Framework", Journal of Econometrics, Neumayer, E. (2005). "Inequality and Violent Crime: Evidence from Data on Robbery and Violent theft", Journal of Peace Research 42 (1). 23. Scorzafave, L. G. and M. K. Soares (2009). "Income Inequality and Pecuniary Crimes", Economic Letters, Shintani, M. (2013). "The INF-t test for a Unit root against Asymmetric ESTAR Models", Japanese Economic Review, 64 (1). 25. Sollis, R. (2009). "A Simple Unit Root Test Against Asymmetric STAR Nonlinearity with an Application to Real Exchange Rates in Nordic Countries", Economic Modelling, 26 (1).
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