St. Johns River Circulation and Salinity Modeling for the Jacksonville Harbor Navigation Study (Phase I) by Xiaohai Liu, Ph.D., PE. Michael B. Kabiling, Ph.D., P.E., C.F.M. Taylor Engineering, Inc. and Steven Bratos U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Jacksonville District 1
Outline Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Project Background Model Description Model Calibration/Verification Conclusions and Next Tasks 2
Project Location 3
Existing Jacksonville Harbor Project SLIDE COURTESY of USACE,CESAJ 4
St. Johns River Deepening History 1895 Complication of 15-foot navigable channel in St. Johns River 1916 Navigation channel deepened to 30 feet 1952 Navigation channel deepened to 34 feet 1978 Navigation channel deepened to 38 feet 2010 Navigation channel deepened to 40 feet 2016(?) Navigation channel deepened to 45/50/? feet 5
Historical Changes in Ship Sizes IMAGE COURTESY of www.pancanal.com 6
Panama Canal Expansion IMAGE COURTESY of www.pancanal.com 7
Current Depth of Major Ports in East Coast Norfolk (VA) 50 feet Charleston (SC) 45 feet Tampa (FL) 43 feet Port Everglades (FL) 42 feet Miami (FL) 42(50) feet Savannah (GA) 42(48) feet Jacksonville (FL) 40 feet 8
Navigation Concerns SLIDE COURTESY of USACE,CESAJ 9
Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Project Feasibility Study SLIDE COURTESY of USACE,CESAJ 10
Jacksonville Harbor Deepening Project Feasibility Study ADCIRC Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) ADH Hydrodynamic Modeling Design Field Hydro- Forcing Ship Sim Design Salinity Shoaling Coastal Measurements Modeling Site Characteristics Impacts 11
Impacts to Salinity Coordination with St Johns River Water Management District Channel Deepening Future water withdrawals,sea level rise Independent Investigation Water quality model (EFDC+CE_QUAL_ICM) Improved channel geometry and depths Calibration/Verification Wet/ Dry Season Conditions Alternative Simulations Salinity Performance Measures Ecological Models Littoral Zone (SAV), Freshwater Wetlands Water Quality TMDL, DO Courtesy of SJRWMD Modeling Design Impacts Field Hydro- Forcing Ship Sim Design Salinity Shoaling Coastal Measurements Modeling BUILDING STRONG 12 US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS Jacksonville District
Lower St. Johns River EFDC Salinity Modeling 13
ENVIRONMENTAL FLUID DYNAMICS CODE (EFDC) The EFDC model is a public domain modeling package for simulation flow, transport, and biogeochemical processes in surface water system EFDC is extremely versatile, and can be used for 1D, 2DV, 2DH, or 3D simulations of rivers, lakes, reservoirs, estuaries, coastal seas, and wetlands 14
Mesh Refinement 15
USACE JAX Harbor Model 4,824 horizontal grid cells 6 vertical layers grid size: 233 29,320 ft offshore grid extent 44 mi offshore 45 mi north of mouth 58 mi south of mouth 16
LSJR Hydrodynamic Model Boundary Conditions Boundary Condition Harmonic Ocean Tide Sub-tidal Ocean Water Level Ocean Salinity Daily tributary discharge Tributary salinity Monthly Springs Discharge Constant Springs Salinity Hourly Spatial Wind Daily Spatial Rainfall Daily Spatial Evaporation Daily/Monthly WWTP Discharge Constant GW to Lake George Source Observed NOAA, Mayport Observed NOAA, Mayport Constant 35 psu USGS observed/hspf Observed S/Q relationship Observed Q/H well relationship Observed USGS/SJRWMD Observed NOAA/FAWN SJRWMD (HSPF) USGS (HSPF) Observed FDEP MODFLOW SLIDE COURTESY of SJRWMD 17
IMAGE COURTESY of SJRWMD 18
Calibration/Verification Wet Condition Dry Condition Wind Condition 19
Calibration-Verification Periods Calibration: Dry Season : 12/1/1998 4/1/1999 Wet Season: 12/1/1997 4/1/1998 Wind Period: 8/1/1996 12/1/1996 Verification: Dry Season : 4/1/2001 8/1/2001 Wet Season: 8/1/2001 12/1/2001 Wind Period: (TBD) 20
Main St. Observation SJRWMD JAX Harbor Model Calibration 0.6 0.4 Water Level (meter) 0.2 0.0-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8 1541 1542 1543 1544 1545 1546 1547 1548 1549 1550 1551 Time (days) Comparison of Computed and Observed Water Level during a Portion of the Dry Calibration Period 21
Model Calibration Performance (Dry Season Water Level) Statistics of Model Performances at Dry Season (12/1/1998 4/1/1999) Bar Pilot Dock Long Branch Main St. Buckman Shands SJRWMD Model (Water Level) Correlation Coefficient 0.992 0.988 0.986 0.973 0.974 Root Mean Square Error (m) 0.088 0.046 0.040 0.042 0.033 JAX Harbor Model (Water Level) Correlation Coefficient 0.992 0.988 0.986 0.976 0.974 Root Mean Square Error (m) 0.087 0.047 0.045 0.036 0.033 22
Acosta (Surface) Observation SJRWMD JAX Harbor Model Calibration 20 15 Salinity (ppt) 10 5 0 1535 1536 1537 1538 1539 1540 1541 1542 1543 1544 1545 Time (days) Acosta (Bottom) 20 Observation SJRWMD JAX Harbor Model Calibration 15 Salinity (ppt) 10 5 0 1535 1536 1537 1538 1539 1540 1541 1542 1543 1544 1545 Time (days) Comparison of Computed and Observed Salinity during a Portion of the Dry Calibration Period 23
Model Calibration Performance (Wet Season Salinity) Statistics of Model Performance at Calibration (Wet Season:) SJRWMD Model JAX Harbor Model Calibration Surface Dames Point Acosta Buckman Shands Dames Point Acosta Buckman Shands Correlation Coefficient 0.908 0.954 0.827 0.884 0.912 0.956 0.934 0.918 RMS Error (ppt) 2.863 0.470 0.029 0.032 3.852 0.466 0.017 0.023 Bottom Dames Point Acosta Buckman Shands Dames Point Acosta Buckman Shands Correlation Coefficient 0.915 0.961 0.826 0.884 0.939 0.959 0.933 0.918 RMS Error (ppt) 3.763 0.440 0.029 0.032 2.671 0.441 0.017 0.023 24
Conclusions and Next Tasks Refined mesh provides improved resolution to capture the trapezoidal navigation channel more accurately Model re-calibration makes the model perform better in project area Model has capability to evaluate potential impact on salinity intrusion. Next tasks: Evaluation of the impacts on salinity, ecological system and water quality from various channel dredging templates and other ongoing projects on St. Johns River 26
Thank You! QUESTIONS? 27