Sports over IP: dynamics and perspec4ves
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1 Sports over IP: dynamics and perspec4ves Emmanuel Blain Charles Fine
2 Outline Framework History of sports broadcasang Problem: What happens when you go over IP? AnAtrust consideraaons System Dynamics model ApplicaAon: Big leagues and Small leagues
3 The delivery model for sports 1970 SI: 1.3M readers / week $10M / year (43% of US pop) (28.7M Ackets, $12.5 avg)
4 The delivery model for sports MLB 1970 SI: 1.3M readers / week Salaries: ($29.3K/ player, 19% of team revenue) $10M / year (28.7M Ackets, $12.5 avg) (43% of US pop) Over the Air TV: ~100% share Total TV Revenue =$10M
5 The delivery model for sports MLB 1985 SI: 2.4M readers / week $136M / year Salaries: ($371K/ player, 49% of team revenue) (45%) (55%) (46.8M Ackets, $10.5 avg) ( 43% of US pop) Over the Air TV: 45% Cable TV & DBS: 55% Total TV Revenue =$136M
6 The delivery model for sports MLB 2005 SI: 3.1M readers/ week 250M readers/ week Salaries: ($2.9M/ player, 55% of team revenue) ($3.6 / subscriber) (0.3%) (10 %) (90 %) (75M Ackets, $19.17avg) ($85.7 avg for 4) ( 43% of US pop) Over the Air TV: 10% Cable TV & DBS: 90% WebTV:~.3% Total TV Revenue =$670M
7 The delivery model for sports NFL M readers/ week 250M readers/ week Salaries: (59% of team revenue) $100M / team (0.3%) (10 %) (90 %) ($3.6 / subscriber) ($71.36 avg) ($ avg for 4) Over the Air TV: 10% Cable TV & DBS: 90% WebTV:~.3% Total TV Revenue =$3B
8 The na4onal TV channels landscape OTA channels Television Network Founded % of U.S. households reached PBS 1969 ~99.00 ABC NBC CBS FOX
9 The na4onal TV channels landscape more and more cable channels Name Owner Notes CBS College Sports Network CBS CorporaAon formerly CSTV ESPN ESPN2 ESPN Plus A service that syndicates college sports to local broadcast and regional cable sta4ons. ESPN Classic Disney/Hearst Corpora4on formerly Classic Sports Network; some4mes used as an overflow for ESPN and ESPN2 ESPNews 24 hour sports news ESPNU college sports ESPN Deportes Spanish Language sports network Fox College Sports Fox Sports en Español News CorporaAon formerly Fox Sports Américas Fuel TV MLB Network Major League Baseball launched January 1, 2009 NBA TV Na4onal Basketball Associa4on formerly NBA.com TV NFL Network Na4onal Football League launched November 4, 2003 NHL Network Na4onal Hockey League launched October 1, 2007 Outdoor Channel Outdoor Channel Holdings Inc. The Sportsman Channel The Sportsman Channel LLC Versus Comcast formerly Outdoor Life Network/OLN
10 OTA is really in a difficult situa4on Cable channels now have a compeaave advantage: Dual revenue stream (ads subscripaons) More than 60% penetraaon in the U.S. Easier to aggregate Regional Sports Networks that sall benefit from high raangs Leagues official channels are owned by leagues: $0 broadcas4ng rights! More and more deals are cut with these channels (e.g. NFL)
11 Now going online MLB example MLB.com is the #1 online portal for baseball (well ahead of ESPN.com) MLB.TV rebroadcasts games on a computer via Internet since The blackout and out of the market policies sall stands, but 4me shiaing is possible. Now streaming to iphones as well Place shiaing
12 Scenario Classifica4on Three main disrupave architectures : #1: Content is king Sports over IP using MLB.TV: MLB takes control over almost the whole value chain, from content creaaon to aggregaaon/distribuaon ISP as dumb pipe #2: Broadcaster is king Sports over IP using Fancast/Versus: ISP uses an in house plamorm to gather content and customers Customers pay for cable, get content online for free #3: Rebroadcas4ng Sports over IP using jusan.tv (pirate): JusAn.tv is the app and access provider ISP as dumb pipe
13 Scenario Classifica4on Parallel with digital music : #1 Content is king Sports over IP using MLB.TV: Madonna contracang her tour promoter for her CD releases #2 Broadcaster is king Sports over IP using Fancast / Hulu: Warner using online plamorms (itunes) to sell mp3s #3 Sports over IP using jus4n.tv (pirate): Napster, KaZaa Is the same sequence going to happen for Sports? Will those three models compete with each other? Is one going to prevail?
14 SpoIP and An4trust Overview of the regulaaon for Cable : 1960s: the FCC did not want to regulate cable First regulatory move : Cable Communica4ons Policy Act of 1984 (deregulaaon with constraint on margins) Re regulaaon: Cable Act of 1992 (regulaaon of basic rates for cable providers) Finally, deregulaaon: Telecommunica4ons Act of 1996 «effecave compeaaon will keep prices down»
15 SpoIP and An4trust Where is the value going?
16 SpoIP and An4trust Overview of the regulaaon for Sports BroadcasAng: Sports Broadcas4ng Act (SBA) of 1961 (league = single enaty, allowed to act as a monopoly) and that s it. Is this really sall adequate today? Update: American Needle vs. NFL
17 SpoIP and An4trust Market power for the leagues
18 SpoIP and An4trust Lessons: RegulaAon is broken (Sports BroadcasAng Act is not relevant) Regulators are watching broadcasters, want «effecave compeaaon.» Back and forth regulatory moves make long term projecaons difficult What will be done about Web broadcasang? For now: Cable providers & broadcasters will have to respect net neutrality Leagues may have to completely disintegrate content producaon and distribuaon (e.g. MLB & MLBAM) to comply with AnAtrust
19 SD model: Methodology Use of System Dynamics to model the market for Sports viewing and the interacaons between fans, leagues, broadcasters and policymakers. CompeAAve model between: Cable TV (e.g. ESPN) Web TV (e.g. MLB.TV) Pirate Web TV (e.g. jusan.tv)
20 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity
21 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity For Video Content For Live Performances Cable / Paid TV Licensed Internet Un-Licensed Internet
22 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity For Video Content For Live Performances Cable / Paid TV Licensed Internet Un-Licensed Internet Team Revenue Stadium Prices and Attendance
23 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet Un-Licensed Internet For Live Performances Team Revenue Stadium Prices and Attendance
24 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet Un-Licensed Internet - - For Live Performances - (Local Sports Blackouts) Team Revenue Stadium Prices and Attendance
25 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet - - Un-Licensed Internet - - For Live Performances - (Local Sports Blackouts) Team Revenue Stadium Prices and Attendance
26 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) Team Revenue League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet - - Un-Licensed Internet - - For Live Performances - (Local Sports Blackouts) Broadband Stadium Prices and Attendance
27 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) Team Revenue League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet - - Un-Licensed Internet - - For Live Performances - Internet Innovation Broadband Stadium Prices and Attendance
28 Potential Fan Creation Rate Casual (Video) Rabid Fan Creation Rate Rabid (Live) League Popularity Content Attractiveness Cable / Paid TV For Video Content Licensed Internet - - Un-Licensed Internet - - For Live Performances - Internet Innovation Broadband Team Revenue Stadium Prices and Attendance
29 MLB average 4cket price
30 MLB players salary
31 MLB revenues from tradi4onal TV
32 Applica4on: Small leagues vs. Big leagues Example of small league over IP: Sail.TV Created in 2006 in the UK Free Web TV, totally ad supported. User generated content can be uploaded content is available on demand (for free for now) Featured the 32 nd America s Cup Very small share of online traffic.
33 Our bet Big leagues Small leagues Content is king Broadcaster is king
34 Big leagues
35 Small leagues
36 Conclusions SpoIP is slowly disrupang tradiaonal Sports BroadcasAng Leagues moving down the value chain Cablecos moving up the value chain? Piracy threat The legislaaon needs to be fixed Sports BroadcasAng Act irrelevant nowadays Does Web broadcasang need to be regulated? How? Different challenges and opportuniaes for small and big leagues
37 Thank you! Any ques4ons?
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