"Application of Parallel Thinking Process

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1 The Fourteenth International Symposium On Military Operational Research (14 ISMOR) "Application of Parallel Thinking Process to 'Soft' Operational Analysis" Mr. Hemant P. Jariwala, Operational Analysis Department, (UK) Ltd., Stevenage, Hertfordshire. SGI 2DA. England Tel.: +44 (0) Fax.: +44 (0) bae.co.u k 141SMORIHPJIOl I Abstract "Western thinking is failing because it was not designed to deal with change." Dr. Edward de Bono, Parallel Thinking Traditional military Operational Analysis (OA) has been used by Industry, Customer and User, as a process for decision making. Indeed,Jmore often than not, it is used to confirm or support preconceived ideas through judgement but with very little thought on design of new ideas or exploring possibilities. If 'Soft' OA is to survive, it must progress to cope with the demands of the increasing complexity of a rapidly changing world. Traditional analytical techniques must evolve or be modified, and different ways of solving problems embraced. Otherwise, OKs value to Industry and Customer alike will be eroded. The objective of this paper is to raise awareness and propose the use of Dr. de Bono's 'Parallel Thinking' ideas in the field of 'Soft' OA. An example is presented, where this methodology would be beneficial, e.g. low intensity conflict analysis (Operations Other Than War). 14ISMOR/HPJ/OZ Disclaimer: The views expressed in this paper are those of the author and do not, necessarily, reflect the views of (UK) Limited. -

3 What is 'Traditional Thinking'? Traditional Thinking is Concerned with Search and Discovery 14ISMOPJHPJx)3 - Westem thinking system fashioned by the Ancient Greek Philosophers: Socrates, Plato and Aristotle. - Judgmental: yedno, righffwrong, truelfalse, etc. -'Static' logic and absolute fact. - Uses hard-edged judgement boxes, definitions and categories. -Sets up dichotomies and contradictions to force choice. -Information and judgement are enough. -Criticism: remove 'bad things' only 'good things' are left. -Adversarial argument. Basic concept of judgement has totally dominated Western thinking, during the past two thousand five hundred years. Traditional Thinking Process ( Perception ) ACTION In traditional thinking there is perception followed by a judgement which puts matter into a box. Action is then determined by the box. Judgement or analysis is the key thinking step Matra BAe Dvnamics

5 What is 'Parallel Thinking'? Parallel Thinking is Concerned with Design and Creation - Accepts 'possibilities'. -- 'Dynamic Logic' and 'Fluid Thinking'. - Uses 'fuzzy edges', overlaps, markers and spectra: 'usually', 'by and large' and 'sometimes', etc. - Embraces contradiction and design a way forward. - Deliberate generation and construction of ideas and concepts. - Uses co-operative 'parallel' thinking. Parallel thinking is 'possibilities' orientated. We move from possibilities to the direct design of action. To deal with the future, we have to deal with possibilities. Analysis will only tell us 'What is'. 14lSMOWPJ/05 II) Pe rce pt i o n - Flowscape -\ Parallel Scenarios - Structured Brainstorming - Lateral Thinking Stru ct u red Judgement Approach ACTION In parallel thinking a useful outcome is obtained by 'design' rather than by 'judgement'. From the field of parallel 'possibilities' we then proceed to design the most appropriate action, decision or a way forward. 141SMORIHPJI06 I

7 . Parallel Thinking Method I 4 1. Growp or Co-operative Involvement Explore Group Flowscape: 'Inner World' of Perception - 'Six Hats' or Structured Brainstorming Method: - Designated hat focuses the group towards the subject. - Different opinions considered equally. - Parallel direction for examining the subject. Lateral Thinking - Generation of new ideas. - Uses: insight, creativity and humour. - Deliberate way of restructuring information. Parallel thinking means laying down ideas alongside each other. There is no clash, no dispute, no initial true/faise judgement. There is instead a genuine exploration of the subject. 141SMORRIPJI07 I Flowscape Methodology (I) Flowscapes are personal reflection of subject perception - Logic of perception. - Picture of the Inner-world -"what might be...", "What does this lead to...?i Flowscape Approach - Define Scope of the Subject. -Aspects of the situation - values, concepts and circumstances. -'Top of the head' list of factors. - Link or 'flows' to other item. 'What comes to mind next or leads to?' - Pictorial representation of flowscape. 141SMOWHPJIO9

9 Flowscape Methodology (2) Group Flowscape - Understanding the 'Logic of Perception' and the process. -Objective of the exercise. -Construct 'base list'. - Flowscape picture. -Analysis of tlowscape: Identify parallel possibilities. I41SMORIHPJllO Matra BAe Dynamicr - Flowscape Methodology (3) W Collector (C) -Possible action points. Stable Loop (S) -Stability of perception. -At least one stable loop Link (L) -Point of weakness Pictorial representation of our perception analysed. Sensitive and important points are understood and focus our attention and decide on course of action. - I41SMORMPJIll

11 Ethnic Conflict Base List Violence Revenge Die Hard Hardship Pressures Anger Despair Traitor Future Peace Revenge Die Hard Traitor Future Die Hard Revenge Revenge Revenge Die Hard Hardship Die hard - Ethnic Conflict Flowscape - Violence Traitor /Pressures Anger + Revenge Die Hard -Heroes / \ Despair Settlement Loops -Economic hard-...d and the future does not feature in reduc..ig the ethnic vic -rice. -The power of being labelled as a traitor prevents conciliatory moves. Collectors -Avenge past events (impossible to forget and forgive) -feeds violence, anger and despair. -Community determination - never give in. A good breeding ground for local heroes and leaders. Any settlement or peace should not be seen as giving in.

13 Outer-world Perception of Conflicts lllsmofuhpjll3 141SMOWHPJH6 Concluding Remarks Has 'Soft' OA has become complacent, arrogant and judgmental? Parallel Thinking has many advantages over Traditional Thin king -Accept possibilities. - Co-operative involvement (Structured Brainstorming). - Direct creation of new ideas and concepts (Lateral Thinking). -Attention to perception (Flowscape). - Concerned with design and action. Need to develop 'novel' methods to deal with new military or non-standard situations Back To The Future - Relationship between perception and reality. -Conflict analysis: More than just a 'Game of War'. - Impact on UNINATO response to conflicts. - Impact on weapon system design, procurement and deployment. -

15 Further Reading Material: Dr. Edward de Bono - Parallel Thinking (ISBN ) -Six Thinking Hats (ISBN X) -Water Logic (ISBN ) - Lateral Thinking (ISBN ) Acknowledgement The author acknowledges the support and assistance recei! ed from: Dr. John R. Deane and Jenny L. Young of (UK) Ltd and Peter J. Haysman of Royal Ordnance (Shrivenham). 141SMOWHPJ117 I Notes:

Colonnade Program Course Proposal: Explorations Category

Colonnade Program Course Proposal: Explorations Category 1. What course does the department plan to offer in Explorations? Which subcategory are you proposing for this course? (Arts and Humanities; Social