Annual Progress Report

Transcription

1 Annual Progress Report Network Project on Market ntelligence Dr. P.K. Awasthi Principal nvestigator Apoorwa Tomar Senior Research Fellow DEPARTMENT OF AGRCULTURAL ECONOMCS & F.M. JAWAHARLAL NEHRU KRSH VSHWA VDYALAYA JABALPUR (MP) 2016

2 Annual Progress Report Project Title: ntelligence Project Code: : Network project on Market : C(4) 372 Market ntelligence Department of Agricultural Economics & F.M. JNKVV Jabalpur (M.P.) Date of Start of project: July 2013 Principal nvestigator: Dr. P.K. Awasthi Professor (Agril. Economics) Senior Research Fellow: Apoorwa Tomar ntroduction The Department of Agricultural Economics and Farm Management JNKVV Jabalpur is effectively implementing the Network Project on Market ntelligence since July 2013 with National nstitute of Agricultural Economics and Policy Research (NAP) New Delhi as a Lead Centre. The main objective of this project has been to provide the price forecast information to the farmers before sowing and pre-harvesting. The pre sowing forecasts presented a view on the likely price to prevail at harvest so as to enable the farmers to take sowing and inputs utilisatin decisions. Similarly the farmer s major dilemma at harvesting time is taking the right decisions on disposing of the produce whether immediately after harvest or later and storage decisions for the mandate crops namely Soybean Maize Chickpea Pigeon pea Rapeseed & Mustard and Lentil. Beside this we have encountered success in creating awareness among the farmers about how to use market intelligence information. The ultimate aim of the project is to increase the net profit per unit area of the farmers. Since inception of the project from July 2013 six pre sowing and five pre harvest price forecasts of major agricultural commodities viz Maize Soybean Pigeon pea Lentil Chickpea and Rapeseed & Mustard were released. The resultant outcomes were widely disseminated through News Paper Kisan Call Centre ATC Krishi Vigyan Kendras Personal contact JNKVV website. Farmers and even traders have been benefitted from the price forecasts made by Market ntelligence Centre based on scientific calculation and econometric analysis using the ARMA ARCH and GARCH in different commodities markets across the state.

3 Methodology As per the approved technical programme for the year the present study is confined to Madhya Pradesh state of ndian Union. On the basis of maximum area and production and market accessibility following crops has been selected for price forecasting. Crops Selected: Cereals Pulses Oilseeds Maize Pigeon pea Chickpea & Lentil SoybeanRapeseed & Mustard Selection of Markets On the basis of maximum arrivals following markets have been chosen for selected crops. S.No Crop Maize Soybean Pigeonpea Chickpea Mustard Market Selected Chhindwara Shujalpur Pipariya Vidisha Morena 6. Lentil Sagar The Data Model Price of mandatory crops from the selected markets was collected by the website AGMARKNET and Market Reports covering a period of more than one decade (January 2003 to Feb 2016). Method of Analysis Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) ARCH GARCH and simple average techniques were used to analyse the collected data and forecasting of price during pre sowing and pre harvesting crop calander periods of selected crops.

4 Pre Sowing Price Forecasts of Selected Crops Achievements Table 1: Pre sowing Forecasted prices of selected crops S.No. Crops Pre sowing month Price forecasted for pre sowing period Forecasted Actual M.S.P. price price (Rs./qt) range (Rs./qt) (Rs./qt) 1. Maize May September October Soybean May OctoberNovember Pigeon pea June FebruaryMarch Chickpea September FebruaryMarch Mustard September March Lentil September FebruaryMarch

5 Maize prices are expected be closer to MSP at Harvest in Madhya Pradesh Maize ( Zea Mays) is one of the most versatile emerging crop having wide adaptability under varied agro-climatic conditions. Globally maize is known as queen of cereals. Central America and Mexico are considered to be the primary center of origin. t is one of the major crops in America Africa and Asia. United States of America is the leading Maize producing country and ndia s ranks seventh in the production of Maize. Out of total world s maize productivity level of ndia s achieved about 53% of productivity. ndia also contribute major share to the production of maize. t is grown in almost all states of the country. mportant maize growing states are Madhya Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Gujarat Maharashtra Himachal Pradesh Jammu and Kashmir and Bihar. Madhya Pradesh ranks sixth in the production of maize but the state is much lagged in terms of productivity. During the year the Area Production and Yield of maize is 12 lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 3200 Kg per hectare respectively which is 20% 47% and 23% higher as compared with the previous year. n Madhya Pradesh Chhindwara Dhar Jhabua Rajgarh Betul Ratlam Singroli Barwani Alirajpur Mandsaur Neemuch Shajapur etc. are the major Maize producing districts. Out of these districts Chhindwara is the major Maize producing district. n Chhindwara district Area Production and Yield of Maize is 135 thousand hectare 484 thousand tonnes and 3585 Kg. per hectare respectively. For forecasting the prices of various major crops Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management (JNKVV) has implementing the project i.e. Market ntelligence. The main objective of this project is to forecast the price of major crops and disseminate the information through different medium i.e. Newspapers T.V. Radio KVK Kissan Call Centers etc. so the farmers can take the accurate decision of sowing the crop. From January 2003 to May 2015 the model prices were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique namely ARCH GARCH ARMA. According to the price forecasting of Maize it is about Rs. 1100/qt. to Rs. 1200/qt. in the month of September and October 2015 which is almost at par with the Minimum Support Price i.e. Rs per quintal so the farmers can take the maximum area for Maize cultivation. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

6 कट ई अव ध ध न एव ग ह सभ म ट अन ज फसल ह एव ए शय हआ ह जह पर आध क भ रत 22 एव ब त ल सबस अ धक ह तथ कट ई सभ छठव स अ धकतम आवक दव तथ आवक पर लए द न स करत ह ज त ह कर स क ल म ह स कर ब व ई करन क म डल समरथ न ह लगभग सम न ह अत क षक म ग अ धक स अ धक ब व ई करन क ल सकत तक पह च न ह क अन म न लग य गय गय ज क क तक ज स अखब र ल सत बर एव स अन म नत क रक तथ द - क रहत ह 2015 मई तक ब व ई 15 ज न स ज ल ई ज क षक अपन फसल उ चत 2003 प च जव हरल ल ज त ह म ह म ग तथ एव ह तथ क ल ऋत स छ दव ड़ ध र झ ब आ रतल म स छ दव ड़ "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक र हआ ह द ख गय ह म स क द श लगभग ह त ह क ल तह ई स अ धक य गद न ह ह ज त ह भ रत औसत क तथ भ रत क स तव स रहन 1325 ह त फसल

7 Soybean Price May be around Rs.3300/qt. to Rs. 3400/qt. at Harvest Soybean (Glysine Max) is also known as a miracle crop and it is one of the major oilseed crop in the world. Globally United States is the leading soybean producer and exporter while ndia ranks fifth produced MT in which is marginally lowered (0.16MT) than produced MT in Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Chhattisgarh & Gujarat are the major Soybean producing states. Madhya Pradesh is known as the Soybean state of ndia and the state occupies first position in the country. During the year the Area Production and Yield of Soybean was lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 784 Kg. per hectare respectively and in the Area Production and Yield is lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 1450 Kg. per hectare respectively n Madhya Pradesh major Soybean growing districts are Chhindwara Narsingpur Sagar ndore Dhar Ujjain Neemuch Ratlam Dewas Shajapur Shivpuri Sehore Raisen Vidisha Rajgarh Hoshangabad Harda and Betul which together covers about 94% of total Soybean production in the state. Dhar is the major Soybean producing district which have area production and yield of 279 thousand hectare 413 thousand tonnes and 1483 Kg per hectare in the year respectively but Shujalpur mandi of Shajapur district has maximum arrivals of Soybean thereforewe selected Shujalpur market of for collecting the model prices and for forecasting the prices. Soybean is mainly a rainfed crop and most farmers begin sowing in mid-june to mid July after the arrival of South west monsoon and harvesting in the month of October and starts arriving in market from October to December and medium in January and February and lean from March to June. To know the forecasting prices Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya has organized the project namely Market ntelligence.the main objective of the project is to forecast the prices of different crops and disseminate it to the farmers so the farmers can take an accurate decision of sowing the crop. n the year the Minimum Support Price of Soybean announced by GO is Rs per quintal.from January 2003 to May 2015 the model prices were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique resulting the range of forecasted prices from Rs to Rs per quintal in the months of October-November which is much higher than the minimum support price of Soybean (Rs. 2600/qt) announced by the GO for the year Hence the farmers are suggested to take their own decision keeping above price level in view and decide to area of sowing as per their convenience. The forecast could be affected by changes in normal weather condition government and export policy etc. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

8 कट ई समय बढ़ सकत ह स य ब न स य ब न " प ल स न " न म स भ ज न ज त ह क स य ब न स अ धक य गद न ह स य ब न भ रत स य ब न तथ र ज स य ब न क ह ल ख रकब ल ख ज श ज प र स य ब न क ल ख जव हरल ल एव ग जर त एव 50 ल ख टन एव 784 थ तथ ल ख टन एव त लन स 1450 अ धक ह भ रत सरक र रकब अन म न लग य गय 3300 स 3400 यह स झ व ब व ई स न त क रण ज त ह ल य गय थ स यब न करन लए म ख स य ब न क ल म ह सबस अ धक श ज प र श 2.79 स य ब न कट ई अ धक रहत एव "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक ब व ई एव कट ई स ध र एव तक पह च न ह त ह 2015 दकत स द श न मच रतल म द व स ह ज ल ई ब च ब य ज त ह तथ उ चत स य ब न र जगढ़ ह श ग ब द हरद एव ब तल जबलप र स स यब न क 0.16 म लयन टन कम ह स य ब न क रकब सबस अ धक स य ब न ह तलहन फसल ह तथ रकब एव ह त ह तथ च न कन ड एव ह त लन 4.13 ल ख टन एव 1483 ह एव य गद न 94 ज न स इसक एक तह ई छ दव ड़ नर स गप र स गर इ द र ध र ज त ह तथ फसल सह र र यस न स य ब न र प चव म लयन टन हआ ज ह तथ क ल ल स क षक फसल गय ह कर ऋत स य ब न क 2003 स मई 2015 तक - क षक ह सकत ह ब व ई म ह स य ब न म सम क स अ धक ह अत रखत हए अपन सरक र

9 Forecasted Pre-Sowing Price of Pigeon pea in Madhya Pradesh ndia is the world s largest producer of Pigeon pea accounting about 90% area and 68% of the global Pigeon pea production.this crop alone contributes nearly 20% of ndia total pulses production of thousand tones during the year nspite of monopoly ndia also imports around 4 to 5 lakh tones of Pigeon pea per year mostly from is Myanmar. Maharashtra is the largest producer of Pigeon pea (0.9 mt) having largest area under cultivation (1.21 mha). Bihar has the highest productivity of Pigeon pea with 1897 kg/ha. Madhya Pradesh ranks fourth in area ( thousand hectares) and production (332 thousand tones) of Pigeon pea in the country. n terms of Pigeon pea production in Madhya Pradesh Narsingpur district is in the lead followed by Hoshangabad Chhindwara Raisen Betul Damoh Rewa & Jabalpur. n the state ndore Bhopal Piparia Vidisha are the major trading center of Pigeon pea in the state. Climatic conditions carryover stocks import and price of other pulse crops etc. have a crucial bearing on shaping the market sentiments of domestic Pigeon pea market. Gadarwara and Piparia region in Madhya Pradesh is known as Pigeon pea Bowl of Madhya Pradesh. Quantum of Pigeon pea arrival in the state was found maximum in Pipariya market ( 6% of total arrivals of Pigeon pea in the state) located in Hoshangabad district of the Madhya Pradesh. Therefore Pipariya market has been selected purposively for collection of required data. Pigeon pea growers are more anxious to know the price to be prevailed during pre and post harvesting period of pigeon pea to decide on the selling and storage decisions. Hence to assist farmers and traders for suitable decisions the NAP Network Project on Market intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management JNKVV Jabalpur (M.P.) collected the weekly wholesale prices of Pigeon pea prevailed in Pipariya market of Madhya Pradesh during the last 13 years (January 2003 to January 2016). Collected data were analysed by using econometric techniques to forecast the prices of Pigeon pea for the harvesting periods. Opinion survey of farmers and Pigeon pea traders was also conducted. From the analysis it is observed that Pigeon pea would fetch a price of around Rs /quintal between February-March. These forecasted prices could vary with changes in the market sentiments weather condition government policies price trend of other pulses in the country etc. Thus farmers are advised to take their decisions accordingly for better price realization. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

10 अरहर भ रत तथ 68 अरहर कट ई अव ध क सबस बड़ अरहर भ रत क 20% तथ अरहर समय आध र पर उपय ग कर ध रण क रण ब व ई एव कट ई समय क न म नत क अरहर जव हरल ल ल न चल य ज गय ह गय तथ म सम ह सकत अरहर एव जबलप र म ह भ प ल जलग व ल त र म बई अरहर लए चय नत द खत हए जबलप र कर न ह त 13 रह ग सरक र ज न ज त अरहर क सबस अ धक आध र पर यह अन म न लग य ज रह ह (464 हज र "अरहर क कट र " ह श ग ब द आस चन " न मक क अरहर ग ड़रव ड़ और एव स 5 ल ख टन क नप र ह प र ज ल धर स ग र आगमन ह त ह तथ अरहर क ह त ह भ रत क म ह ब च तथ आगमन लए ज न ज त गय ह रकब भ रत क ल दलहन छ दव ड़ र यस न ब त ल दम ह ब व ई ज न स एव अल ह (332 हज र टन) नर स गप र एव अरहर और ग जर त द श ) एव क एक धक र ह न ब वज द भ रत ह त ह भ रत ह त ह बल स भ वन द श ह तथ म लयन टन अरहर क आयत करत ह भ रत अरहर ल भद यक एव "ब ज़ र कट ई ( ) क अरहर ब ज़ र Pre-Sowing price forecasting of Chickpea

11 The Chickpea is the third most important pulse crop after Drybean and Pea and accounts for 20% of the pulses produce in the world. ndia Australia Pakistan Turkey Ethiopia and Myanmar are the international Chickpea producers. ndia is the largest producer consumer and importer of Chickpea and shared alone about three-fourth of the total world s production. ndia imports desi chana varieties from surplus countries like Australia ran Turkey and Canada. Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Gujarat Chhattisgarh Haryana Bihar Odisha and West Bengal are the major Chickpea producing states. Madhya Pradesh being largest producer of the Chickpea occupies the first position both in area and production. During the last one decade since 2001 the area and production have increased remarkably. The total area under chickpea in stands at 3482 thousand hectare and production at 2555 thousand tones with average productivity of chickpea in the state is 809 Kg/ha which is lower than the national level. Top Chickpea producing districts in the state are Sagar Chhindwara Vidisha Raisen Ashoknagar Dewas Damoh Rajgarh Narsingpur Ujjain Chhatarpur and Sehore. Vidisha district have recorded highest arrivals of Chickpea in the state but in terms of area Sagar district occupies first position and it covers 202 thousand hectare area and in terms of production Chhindwara district registered first position and produces 151 thousand tonnes in the year The sowing time of Chickpea in the state starts from October to November and harvest in the months of February-March. For forecasting the prices of various major crops Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management (JNKVV Jabalpur) has implementing the project i.e. Market ntelligence. The main objective of this project is to forecast the price of major crops and disseminate the information through different medium i.e. Newspapers T.V. Radio KVK Kissan Call Centers etc. so the farmers can take the accurate decision regarding time and area of sowing. From January 2003 to September 2015 the model prices of Chickpea from Vidisha market were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique namely ARCH GARCH ARMA. According to the price forecasting of Chickpea prices gained on account of low output following unseasonal rainfall and a sharp drop in area under cultivation in key growing belts in the state. Low production support upward movement of price and it may go up to Rs to Rs. 4400/qt. in the month of FebruaryMarch 2016 which is much higher than the Minimum Support Price i.e. Rs.3175 per quintal announced by GO so the farmers can take the maximum area for the cultivation of Chickpea. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted. चन ल भद यक मलन

12 भ रत स म ग एव ब ज़ र न त अल भ रत म लयन ह ) एव र जगढ़ नर स गप र प चव सबस अ धक चन क आगमन चल य ज ह क ल फसल ज स चन गय अत क षक म ग ल सकत ह त चन ह त ह ) तथ हआ चन ब व ई तक पह च न लए जव हरल ल ब व ई एव कट ई स ज स तक पह च न ह 2016 तक ल स म डल गय तथ आध र पर रहन फसल अ धक स अ धक क षक अपन क उपय ग कर 3425 सम च र आक शव ण समय पर ब चन क "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक 2003 स ह ज त ह - जबलप र क तथ कट ई ह चन स गर (202 हज र छ दव ड़ (151 हज र टन) -नव बर र यस न अश कनगर द व स दम ह छतरप र एव सह र चन रकब क चन रकब (3.1 (3.3 म लयन टन) स गर छ दव ड़ स 70% तथ क (6-8 क ल चन ह त ह भ रत चन स 40% क सबस बड़ चन म लयन टन) एव उपभ ग करन व ल द श ह ल गत एव घर ल ज त ह भ रत क ल दलहन अल चन क ह त ह भ रत ब ज़ र - स भ वन ह स बहत अ धक ह ब व ई करन क Mustard Price likely to be around Rs per quintal at Harvest

13 Rapeseed and Mustard is the second most important oilseed crop in ndia after soybean. t accounts for nearly 20-22% of the total oilseeds produced in the country. ndia produces around 65 lakh tonnes of rapeseed mustard seed and around 26 lakh tonnes of mustard oil and 35 lakh tonnes of cakes. Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Haryana Gujrat West Bengal and Assam are the major mustard producing states in the country. Madhya Pradesh alone contributes about 10% of the total rapeseed mustard seed produced in ndia. n Madhya Pradesh Morena Gwalior Shivpuri Sheopur Bhind Mandsaur & Neemuch are the major Mustard growing districts. Among these districts Morena occupies the first position both in terms of arrivals and production of mustard. Therefore we have selected Morena market of Morena district for collecting the model prices and for forecasting the pre sowing prices. n the various part of the State Mustard is sown normally during September to October and harvesting in the month of March. Arrivals are peak in the month of April to June and lean from November to January The Minimum Support Price for mustard has announced by the Government of ndia i.e. Rs per quintal for the agricultural year To know rabi harvest prices of mustard econometric analysis of model prices of mustard in Morena market for a period of 12 years (January 2003 to August 2015) was undertaken by the Network Project on Market ntelligence in the Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management JNKVV Jabalpur. The outcomes of the analysis along with traders & farmers survey was indicated that Mustard price per quintal are likely to range between Rs to 4100 per quintal at the time of harvesting period which would be quite more than Minimum Support Price of Mustard. Traders & Farmers are of the view that Mustard price in coming months increase drastically in different markets of States. Thus farmers are suggested to take their decision accordingly keeping above price level and decide to sell or store the produce as per their convenience. The forecasted price could be affected by changes in weather condition and government and EXM policy etc. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and different models and that actual market price may or may not turn out to be the same as forecasted. फसल त र त ब चकर अ धक ह न स भ वन

14 द श प चव तलहन स एक ह भ रत तलहन फसल ह क ल तलहन अल क ह भ रत टन त ल तथ 35 ल ख टन क क स कम ह 762 थ इस म र न तथ कट ई अ धक ह त ह क आगमन ह त ह कर ज त ह तथ एव रब ) तथ स झ व ह त ह गय स अ धक ह रहन म दस र क म डल - एव स ब व ई - स ज न गय सबस लए भ रत सरक र गय एव ब ज़ र आस चन न मक ( ) स भ वन बत य ज अत क षक अपन क ह और न मच चय नत ((म..) 13 औसत य गद न ब व ई एव कट ई गय तथ आध र पर दकत क चल य हज र टन तथ 989 लग न ह त म र न ( जव हरल ल सबस अ धक क क रकब क ल लगभग 12 करन तथ ब ग ल एव असम द श 753 ब ज आगमन म र न स ह त ह हज र लगभग लगभग 65 ल ख टन र ई 26 ल ख य ण ग जर त तथ स य ब न ह ज म डल ल सकत

15 Pre Harvesting Price Forecasts of Selected Crops Table 2: Pre harvest Forecasted prices of selected crops S.No. Crops Pre harvest month Price forecasted for pre harvest period (Rs./qt) Forecasted Actual price price range (Rs./qt) (Rs./qt) M.S.P. (Rs./qt) 1. Maize August SeptemberOcotber Soybean September OctoberNovember Pigeon pea January FebruaryMarch Chickpea January FebruaryMarch Mustard February March Lentil January FebruaryMarch

16 Maize prices May Mount Moderately at Harvest in Madhya Pradesh Madhya Pradesh is the leading maize producing states in the ndian Union and ranks sixth in the production of maize but the state is much lagged in terms of productivity. During the year the Area Production and Yield of maize was 12 lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 3200 Kg per hectare respectively which is 20% 47% and 23% higher as compared with the previous year. Chhindwara Dhar Jhabua Rajgarh Betul Ratlam Singroli Barwani Alirajpur Mandsaur Neemuch Shajapur etc. are the major Maize producing districts in the state. Out of these districts Chhindwara is the major Maize producing district. n Chhindwara district Area Production and Yield of Maize is 135 thousand hectare 484 thousand tonnes and 3585 Kg. per hectare respectively during the year For forecasting the prices of various major crops Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management (JNKVV) has implementing the project i.e. Market ntelligence. The main objective of this project is to forecast the price of major crops and disseminate the information through different medium i.e. Newspapers T.V. Radio KVK Kissan Call Centers etc. so the farmers can take the accurate decision of sowing the crop. From January 2003 to September 2015 the model prices were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric techniques namely ARCH and ARMA. According to the price forecasting of Maize it is fly round Rs. 1200/qt. to Rs. 1400/qt. in the months of September to December 2015 which is almost equal to Minimum Support Price i.e. Rs per quintal. Therefore we suggest the farmers either sell their crop immediately or store until November and then can sell in the month of December. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted कट ई अव ध रहन

17 ध न एव ग ह एव ए शय सभ म ट अन ज फसल ह तथ भ रत क स तव हआ ह जह पर आध क भ रत औसत 22 एव ब त ल सबस अ धक ह तथ कट ई सभ छठव स अ धकतम आवक दव तथ आवक लए पर स द न ज त ह कर क ल स स कर गय ज क अन म न लग य गय लगभग सम न ह अत क षक अपन क क ज तक ज स अखब र ल सत बर म ह स ल सकत तक पह च न ह म डल 1200 अन म नत क रक ब व ई करन क तथ द - क रहत ह 2015 मई तक ब व ई 15 ज न स ज ल ई ज क षक अपन फसल उ चत 2003 प च जव हरल ल "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक ज त ह म ह म ग तथ एव ह तथ क ल ऋत स छ दव ड़ ध र झ ब आ रतल म स छ दव ड़ करत ह हआ ह द ख गय ह म स क द श लगभग ह त ह क ल तह ई स अ धक य गद न ह ह ज त ह भ रत स क ह Soybean Prices May ncrease at the time of Harvest

18 Soybean (Glysine Max) is also known as a miracle crop and it is one of the major oilseed crop in the world. Globally United States is the leading soybean producer and exporter while ndia ranks fifth produced MT in which is marginally lowered (0.16MT) than produced MT in Madhya Pradesh Maharashtra Rajasthan Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Chhattisgarh & Gujarat are the major Soybean producing states. Madhya Pradesh is known as the Soybean state of ndia and the state occupies first position in the country. During the year the Area Production and Yield of Soybean was lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 784 Kg. per hectare respectively and in the Area Production and Yield is lakh hectare lakh tonnnes and 1450 Kg. per hectare respectively n Madhya Pradesh major Soybean growing districts are Chhindwara Narsingpur Sagar ndore Dhar Ujjain Neemuch Ratlam Dewas Shajapur Shivpuri Sehore Raisen Vidisha Rajgarh Hoshangabad Harda and Betul which together covers about 94% of total Soybean production in the state. Dhar is the major Soybean producing district which have area production and yield of 279 thousand hectare 413 thousand tonnes and 1483 Kg per hectare in the year respectively but Shujalpur mandi of Shajapur district has maximum arrivals of Soybean thereforewe selected Shujalpur market of for collecting the model prices and for forecasting the prices. Soybean is mainly a rainfed crop and most farmers begin sowing in mid-june to mid July after the arrival of South west monsoon and harvesting in the month of October and starts arriving in market from October to December and medium in January and February and lean from March to June. To know the forecasting prices Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management Jawaharlal Nehru Krishi Vishwa Vidyalaya has organized the project namely Market ntelligence.the main objective of the project is to forecast the prices of different crops and disseminate it to the farmers so the farmers can take an accurate decision of sowing the crop. n the year the Minimum Support Price of Soybean announced by GO is Rs per quintal.from January 2003 to September 2015 the model prices were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique resulting the range of forecasted prices from Rs to Rs per quintal in the months of October to January which is much higher than the minimum support price of Soybean (Rs. 2600/qt) announced by the GO for the year Hence the farmers are suggested to take their own decision keeping above price level in view and decide to sell or store the produce as per their convenience. The forecast could be affected by changes in normal weather condition government and export policy etc. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

19 कट ई समय बढ़ सकत ह स य ब न स य ब न " प ल स न " न म स भ ज न ज त ह क स य ब न स अ धक य गद न ह स य ब न भ रत स य ब न तथ र ज स य ब न क ह ल ख रकब ल ख ज श ज प र स य ब न क ल ख जव हरल ल भ रत सरक र स स ज त ह न त क रण रकब स यब न करन लए स म ह स य ब न कट ई अ धक रहत "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक ल स क षक फसल गय ह ह सकत ह श 2.79 एव तक पह च न ह त ह क षक सबस अ धक श ज प र ल य गय थ क ल ध र एव ब व ई एव कट ई 2015 म ख स य ब न न मच रतल म द व स ह स द श र जगढ़ ह श ग ब द हरद एव ब तल उ चत दकत थ तथ अ धक ह ज ल ई ब च ब य ज त ह तथ अन म न लग य गय ब व ई त लन जबलप र स स य ब न एव ल ख टन एव एव ग जर त 50 ल ख टन एव 784 स यब न क 0.16 म लयन टन कम ह स य ब न क रकब सबस अ धक स य ब न ह तलहन फसल ह तथ रकब एव ह त ह तथ च न कन ड एव ह त लन 4.13 ल ख टन एव 1483 ह स झ व इसक एक तह ई छ दव ड़ नर स गप र स गर इ द र ध र ज न स य गद न 94 ज त ह तथ फसल सह र र यस न स य ब न र प चव म लयन टन हआ ज ह तथ क ल कर ऋत ब व ई स य ब न क 2003 स मई 2015 तक म ह स य ब न म सम क स अ धक ह अत रखत हए अपन 3400 स सरक र एव यह

20 Forecasted Pre-Harvest Price of Pigeon pea in Madhya Pradesh ndia is the world s largest producer of Pigeon pea accounting about 90% area and 68% of the global Pigeon pea production.this crop alone contributes nearly 20% of ndia total pulses production of thousand tones during the year nspite of monopoly ndia also imports around 4 to 5 lakh tones of Pigeon pea per year mostly from is Myanmar. Maharashtra is the largest producer of Pigeon pea (0.9 mt) having largest area under cultivation (1.21 mha). Bihar has the highest productivity of Pigeon pea with 1897 kg/ha. Madhya Pradesh ranks fourth in area ( thousand hectares) and production ( 332 thousand tones) of Pigeon pea in the country. n terms of Pigeon pea production in Madhya Pradesh Narsingpur district is in the lead followed by Hoshangabad Chhindwara Raisen Betul Damoh Rewa & Jabalpur. n the state ndore Bhopal Piparia Vidisha are the major trading center of Pigeon pea in the state. Climatic conditions carryover stocks import and price of other pulse crops etc. have a crucial bearing on shaping the market sentiments of domestic Pigeon pea market. Gadarwara and Piparia region in Madhya Pradesh is known as Pigeon pea Bowl of Madhya Pradesh. Quantum of Pigeon pea arrival in the state was found maximum in Pipariya market ( 6% of total arrivals of Pigeon pea in the state) located in Hoshangabad district of the Madhya Pradesh. Therefore Pipariya market has been selected purposively for collection of required data. Pigeon pea growers are more anxious to know the price to be prevailed during pre and post harvesting period of pigeon pea to decide on the selling and storage decisions. Hence to assist farmers and traders for suitable decisions the NAP Network Project on Market intelligence functioning in the Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management JNKVV Jabalpur (M.P.) collected the weekly wholesale prices of Pigeon pea prevailed in Pipariya market of Madhya Pradesh during the last 13 years (January 2003 to January 2016). Collected data were analysed by using econometric techniques to forecast the prices of Pigeon pea for the harvesting periods. Opinion survey of farmers and Pigeon pea traders was also conducted. From the analysis it is observed that Pigeon pea would fetch a price of around Rs /quintal between February to May. These forecasted prices could vary with changes in the market sentiments weather condition government policies price trend of other pulses in the country etc. Thus farmers are advised to take their decisions accordingly for better price realization. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

21 भ रत तथ 68 क सबस बड़ अरहर भ रत क 20% ह त ह द श ह तथ अरहर क ह त ह भ रत क अरहर एक धक र ह न ब वज द भ रत क आयत करत ह भ रत और ग जर त 332 नर स गप र ह लए ज न ज त गय एव क अरहर अरहर ग ड़रव ड़ और ब ज़ र क रण एव म ह ह त एव जलग व ल त र म बई एव अरहर अरहर क कट र आध र पर ब व ई एव कट ई समय ल न ध रण ह लए चय नत द खत हए एव जबलप र स ज न ज त ह अरहर क सबस अ धक गय तथ एव ) भ प ल चल य ज - एव जबलप र हज र 464 अरहर क नप र ह प र ज ल धर स ग र जव हरल ल गय क अरहर म ह ब च तथ आगमन ह श ग ब द आगमन ह त ह छ दव ड़ र यस न ब त ल दम ह स 5 ल ख टन अरहर द श ब व ई ज न स तथ अल हज र टन) अरहर ह भ रत अरहर रकब भ रत क ल दलहन म लयन टन क 90 ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक " कट ई समय कर न ह त 13 ( ) क उपय ग कर आध र पर यह अन म न लग य ज रह ह मई ह सकत म सम सरक र तथ अरहर रह ग

22 Pre-Harvest price forecasting of Chickpea The price of pulses in ndia is primarily determined by domestic market forces along with the domestic price policy. Among various pulse crops chickpea dominates with over 40 percent share in total pulse production. ndia is the single largest consumer and producer of chickpea in the world produces around 6 to 8 million tones and contributes around 70% of the total world production. Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Maharashtra Uttar Pradesh Andhra Pradesh etc. are the leading chickpea producing states in ndian Union. Madhya Pradesh has the highest area under gram cultivation (3.1 m.ha.) and largest production (3.3 mt.) however productivity is highest in Gujarat followed by Bihar. Top Chickpea producing districts in the state are Sagar Chhindwara Vidisha Raisen Ashoknagar Dewas Damoh Rajgarh Narsingpur Ujjain Chhatarpur and Sehore. Vidisha district have recorded highest arrivals of Chickpea in the state but in terms of area Sagar district occupies first position and it covers 202 thousand hectare area and in terms of production Chhindwara district registered first position and produces 151 thousand tonnes in the year The sowing time of Chickpea in the state starts from October to November and harvest in the months of February-March. For forecasting the prices of various major crops Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management (JNKVV Jabalpur) has implementing the project i.e. Market ntelligence. The main objective of this project is to forecast the price of major crops and disseminate the information through different medium i.e. Newspapers T.V. Radio KVK Kissan Call Centers etc. so the farmers can take the accurate decision regarding time and area of sowing. From January 2003 to January 2016 the model prices of Chickpea from Vidisha market were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique namely ARCH GARCH ARMA. According to the price forecasting of Chickpea prices gained on account of low output following unseasonal rainfall and a sharp drop in area under cultivation in key growing belts in the state. Low production support upward movement of price and it may go up to Rs to Rs. 4850/qt. in the month of February to May Hence the farmers are suggested to take their own decision keeping above price level in view and decide to sell or store the produce as per their convenience. The forecast could be affected by changes in normal weather condition and export import policy etc. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

23 चन भ रत ल भद यक ब ज़ र न त र मलन स म ग एव अल भ रत ) एव श प चव चल य ज ल गत तथ कट ई ह क ल फसल 2003 स ज स -मई स भ वन ह गय चन बहत अ धक ह अत ब चकर अ धक स अ धक ल भ ह त ह ) तथ हआ चन ब व ई तक पह च न लए जव हरल ल "ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक ब व ई एव कट ई स ज स र आक शव ण तक पह च न ह समय पर ब चन क ह ज त ह - जबलप र क स गर (202 हज र छ दव ड़ (151 हज र टन) -नव बर ह चन सबस अ धक चन क आगमन र यस न अश कनगर द व स दम ह छतरप र एव सह र चन रकब क चन रकब (3.1 (3.3 म लयन टन) स गर छ दव ड़ स 70% तथ (6-8 क ल चन ह त ह भ रत चन स 40% क सबस बड़ चन म लयन टन) एव उपभ ग करन व ल द श ह र जगढ़ नर स गप र एव घर ल ज त ह भ रत क ल दलहन अल चन क ह त ह भ रत म लयन ब ज़ र ल 2016 तक त आध र पर अपन फसल 3425 क षक अपन स म डल गय तथ क उपय ग कर करन सम च र - रहन तथ स स मई म ह ब च

24 Pre harvest Price Forecasting of Lentil Lentil is an important rabi pulse and cultivated area in the world is around 4.34 million hectares with production and productivity of 4.95 million tons and 1260 kg. per hectare respectively. ndia Canada Turkey Australia USA Nepal China and Ethiopia are the largest producers of lentil. About a quarter of the worldwide production of lentils is from ndia most of which is consumed in the domestic market. Among the important states engaged in growing lentils have been Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Bihar Maharashtra which together account for almost 80% of ndia s production of lentils. Madhya Pradesh ranks second largest lentil producing state in ndian Union sharing 29.4 % during the year The area production and productivity of lentil in the state was 530 thousand hectares 338 thousand tons and 638 kg./ha. respectively in Sagar Damoh Narsingpur Dindori Jabalpur Panna Vidisha Raisen Shajapur and Anuppur are important lentil producing districts in the state. Maximum lentil arrivals in the state were observed in Sagar district. Therefore Sagar district has been selected. Lentil in the state starts sowing from October to November and harvest in the months of February-March. For forecasting the prices of various major crops Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management (JNKVV Jabalpur) has implementing the project i.e. Market ntelligence. The main objective of this project is to forecast the price of major crops and disseminate the information through different medium i.e. Newspapers T.V. Radio KVK Kissan Call Centers ATC Cost of Cultivation scheme etc. so the farmers can take the accurate decision regarding time and area of sowing and also can take the decisions of selling the crop at the time of more benefit rather than store it until he does not get maximum benefit. From January 2003 to January 2016 the model prices of Lentil from Sagar market were collected through different sources and analyzed forecasted prices by using econometric technique namely ARCH GARCH ARMA. From the analysis it is observed that Lentil would fetch a price of around Rs. 5400/qt. to Rs. 5600/qt. between February-March which vary with changes in the market sentiments weather condition government policies price trend of other pulses in the country etc. Thus farmers are advised to take their decisions accordingly and store Lentil produce for some periods for better price realization. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

25 मस र मस र दलहन 4.34 थ द श तथ रकब तथ मस र ब व ई ह त ह कट ई अव ध स एव " ब ज़ र आस चन " न मक पह च न ह त ह 2003 स स रहन लग न ह त यह सल ह ) स मई म ह ब च मस र कर अ धक स अ धक ल भ तक लग न क तथ स म डल क क षक मस र स भ वन ह ज भ रत सरक र ज त ह क ह जबलप र आक शव ण रकब तक स गर 3325 म स - ज य गय तथ ( तथ र ल क उपय ग कर आध र पर गए 2016 क जव हरल ल करन क क जबलप र तथ कट ई - क षक अपन फसल यथ चत समय हआ गय ज स सम च र क ल मस र हज र टन तथ ब व ई तथ कट ई स ह त आगमन ह त ह इस लए स गर मस र लग न तथ मस र मस र ह त चय नत 29.4% थ स गर दम ह नर स गप र न प ल च न तथ मस र ह हज र 530 मस र क सबस अ धक द श स र यस न श ज प र तथ अन पप र स गर जह द श क 80 मस र तथ म लयन टन तथ 1260 मस र क ल मस र क रकब मस र ह 4.95 स एक ह म लयन ह भ रत कन ड स भ वन स लग य गय अ धक ह अत स मई ब च

26 Pre-harvest price forecast of Mustard Rapeseed and Mustard is the second most important oilseed crop in ndia after soybean. t accounts for nearly 20-22% of the total oilseeds produced in the country. ndia produces around 65 lakh tonnes of rapeseed mustard seed and around 26 lakh tonnes of mustard oil and 35 lakh tonnes of cakes. Rajasthan Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh Haryana Gujrat West Bengal and Assam are the major mustard producing states in the country. Madhya Pradesh alone contributes about 12% of the total rapeseed mustard seed produced in ndia. n Madhya Pradesh Morena Gwalior Shivpuri Sheopur Bhind Mandsaur & Neemuch are the major Mustard growing districts. Among these districts Morena occupies the first position both in terms of arrivals and production of mustard. Therefore we have selected Morena market of Morena district for collecting the model prices and for forecasting the pre harvesting prices. n the various part of the State Mustard is sown normally during September to October and harvesting in the month of March. Arrivals are peak in the month of April to June and lean from November to January The Minimum Support Price for mustard has announced by the Government of ndia i.e. Rs per quintal for the agricultural year To know rabi harvest prices of mustard econometric analysis of model prices of mustard in Morena market for a period of 13 years (January 2003 to February 2016) was undertaken by the Network Project on Market ntelligence in the Department of Agricultural Economics & Farm Management JNKVV Jabalpur. The outcomes of the analysis along with traders & farmers survey was indicated that Mustard price per quintal are likely to range between Rs to 4100 per quintal at the time of harvesting period which is more than Minimum Support Price of Mustard. Traders & Farmers are of the view that Mustard price in coming months increase drastically in different markets of States. Thus farmers are suggested to take their decision accordingly keeping above price level and decide to sell or store the produce as per their convenience. The forecasted price could be affected by changes in weather condition and government and EXM policy etc. Note: These forecasts are based on past data and model and that actual market price may not turn out to be same as forecasted.

27 फसल त र त ब चकर अ धक द श तलहन अल क ह भ रत स कम ह हज र ब ज म र न करन तथ तथ कट ई अ धक ह त ह क न एव रब ) कर ह गय य स अ धक ह 13 गय तथ आध र पर तथ रहन ह न म दस र क और न मच एव म डल चय नत स ब व ई गय सबस लए भ रत सरक र गय एव ब ज़ र आस चन न मक ( ) स भ वन बत य ज स भ वन ह - स ज न - म सम क ह ब व ई एव कट ई ((म..) औसत य गद न तथ स झ व ह त चल य क ज त ह तथ 3100 ( जव हरल ल लग न ह त म र न आगमन ह त ह हज र टन तथ 989 लगभग 12 सबस अ धक क क रकब क ल 753 श लगभग ब ग ल एव असम द श थ इस आगमन म र न स य ब न स ह त ह ग जर त तथ उ स एक ह भ रत लगभग 65 ल ख टन र ई 26 ल ख टन त ल तथ 35 ल ख टन क क स भ वन तलहन फसल ह क ल तलहन प चव ह न स ब म सम स म डल ह ज ओल त पम न तथ

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