BEST PICTURE. who will win?

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1 BEST PICTURE Amour Argo Beasts of the Southern Wild Django Unchained Les Miserables Life of Pi Silver Linings Playbook The Artist Hugo had the most noms with 11, but The Artist had 10 - close enough. The Artist was released after September 1st, won the GG and the PGA. Hazanavicius won the DGA. The Artist was not the lowest grossing nominee, Tree of Life was. The Artist had two acting noms and broke the Comedy Curse! Zero Dark Thirty Trends Best Picture DGA WINNER: 24 of the last 30 winners have been directed by the Directors Guild winner. Ben Affleck (Argo) NOMINATION KINGPIN: 23 of the last 30 winners had the most nominations. FALL RELEASE: 21 of the last 30 winners were released after September 1st. All except Beasts of the Southern Wild EPIC QUALITY: 19 of the last 30 winners have been "Epic" in scope. Django, Les Miserables, Life of Pi,, Zero Dark Thirty PGA WINNER: 15 of the last 22 winners have also won the Producer's Guild of America Award. Argo GG WINNER: 13 of the last 30 winners have also won the Golden Globe Award. Argo, Les Miserables ACTING SNUB: 4 of the last 30 winners have won without any acting nominations. Life of Pi COMEDY CURSE: 3 of the last 30 winners were a comedy. Silver Linings Playbook DIRECTOR SNUB: 1 of the last 30 winners has won without a Best Director nomination. Argo, Django Unchained, Les Miserables SCREENPLAY SNUB: 1 of the last 30 winners has won without a Screenplay nomination. Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thiry BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: The lowest grossing nominee has never won! Amour By the Book: Argo Deep Vote : Argo

2 BEST ACTOR Bradley Cooper Silver Linings Playbook Denzel Washington Flight Hugh Jackman Les Miserables Daniel Day-Lewis Joaquin Phoenix The Master Trends for Best Actor PRE-AWARD WINS: 28 of the last 30 winners had at least one pre-award win. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) BEST PICTURE NOM: 23 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables) TRUE STORY/BIO PIC: 18 of the last 30 winners portrayed an historical figure. Daniel Day-Lewis () SAG WINNER: 14 of the last 18 winners also won the Screen Actors Guild Award. Daniel Day-Lewis () COMEDY CURSE: 1 of the last 30 winners appeared in a comedy. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 1 of the last 30 winners appeared in the lowest grossing film. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) SOLE NOM BLUES: 2 of the last 30 winners were the only nomination for that film. - OLDEST NOM: 2 of the last 30 winners were the oldest nominee. Denzel Washington (Flight) Jean Dujardin - The Artist This SAG winner appearing in a Best Picture nominee whose film wasn't in the box office basement went on to defeat the comedy curse and take home the Oscar. He was not the oldest nominee. By the Book: Daniel Day-Lewis Deep Vote : Daniel Day-Lewis

3 BEST ACTRESS Jessica Chastain Zero Dark Thirty Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook Quvenzhané Wallis Beasts of the Southern Wild Emmanuelle Riva Amour Naomi Watts The Impossible Trends for Best Actress PRE-AWARD WINS: 29 of the last 30 winners had at least one pre-award win. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quxenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) FIRST TIME WINNER: 25 of the last 30 winners were first time winners in this category. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quxenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Wattes (The Impossible) GG WINNER: 26 of the last 30 winners also won the Golden Globe Award. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) SAG WINNER: 13 of the last 18 winners also won the Screen Actors Guild Award. Jennifer Lawrence TRUE STORY/BIO PIC: 9 of the last 30 winners portrayed an historical figure. - SOLE NOM BLUES: 4 of the last 30 winners were the only nomination for that film. Naomi Watts (The Impossible) OLDEST NOM: 4 of the last 30 winners was the oldest nominee. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 1 of the last 30 winners appeared in the lowest grossing film. Emmanuelle Riva (Amour) Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady Meryl Streep won several pre-awards, including the GG. The Iron Lady was not in the B.O. Basement, and Best Actress was not the film's only nomination. She broke trend by winning for portraying an historical figure. She was not a first-time nominee in this category and was not the SAG winner - Viola Davis was. By the Book: Jennifer Lawrence Deep Vote : Jessica Chastain

4 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Alan Arkin Argo Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master Tommy Lee Jones Christopher Waltz Django Unchained Trends for Best Supporting Actor NO BEST ACTOR NOM: 22 of the last 30 winners' films had no best actor nominee. Alan Arkin (Argo), Christopher Waltz (Django Unchained) SAG WINNER: 11 of the last 18 winners also won the Screen Actors Guild award. Tommy Lee Jones FIRST TIME NOM: 15 of the last 30 winners were first-time nominees in this category. SOLE NOM BLUES: 2 of the last 30 winners were the only nomination for that film. YOUNGEST NOM: 2 of the last 20 winners were the youngest nominees. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 6 of the last 30 winners appeared in the lowest grossing film. Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) OLDEST NOM: 6 of the last 30 winners were the oldest nominees. Alan Arkin (Argo) TRUE STORY/BIO PIC: 5 of the last 30 winners portrayed an historical figure. Tommy Lee Jones () Christopher Plummer - Beginners This first-time winner and SAG award recipient, wasn't the oldest or youngest nom and took home Oscar despite being in the box office basement and the film's only nominee. By the Book: Tommy Lee Jones Deep Vote : Alan Arkin

5 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Amy Adams The Master Sally Field Anne Hathaway Les Miserables Helen Hunt The Sessions Jacki Weaver Silver Linings Playbook Trends for Best Supporting Actress FIRST TIME NOM: 23 of the last 30 winners were first-time nominees in this category. Sally Field (), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions) SAG WINNER: 11 of the last 18 winners also won the SAG award. Anne Hathaway COMEDY CURSE: 10 of the last 30 winners appeared in a comedy. Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook) TRUE STORY/BIO PIC: 9 of the last 30 winners portrayed an historical figure. Sally Field (), Helen Hunt (The Sessions) YOUNGEST NOM: 4 of the last 30 winners were the youngest nominees. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 1 of the last 30 winners appeared in the lowest grossing film. Helen Hunt (The Sessions) Octavia Spencer - The Help Octavia Spencer was a first-time nominee; she won the SAG award and was neither the youngest nor oldest nominee. The Help was not in the Box Office Basement nor was Spencer's role historical. She won. Breaking the trend that The Help had a Best Actress nomination. By the Book: Sally Field Deep Vote : Anne Hathaway

6 BEST DIRECTOR Michael Haneke Amour Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild Ang Lee Life of Pi Stephen Spielberg David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook Trends for Best Director PRE-AWARD WINNER: 29 of the last 30 winners have won at least one pre-award. - DGA WINNER: 27 of the last 30 winners also won the Directors Guild Award. - NOMINATION KINGPIN: 22 of the last 30 winners directed the film with the most nominations. Steven Spielberg () EPIC QUALITY: 19 of the last 30 winners directed a film "Epic" in scope. Ang Lee (Life of Pi), Steven Spielberg () FIRST TIME NOM: 19 of the last 30 winners were a first time nominee in this category. Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) ACTING SNUB: Only 4 of the last 30 winners directed a film with no acting noms. Michael Haneke (Amour), Ang Lee (Life of Pi) OLDEST NOM: Only 3 of the last 30 winners were the "oldest" nominee. Steven Spielberg () DGA SNUB: A non-directors Guild nominated Academy Award nominee has never won. Michael Haneke (Amour), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist He won the DGA Award, was a first-time nominee, not the oldest nominee and the film had two acting noms. His film did not have the most nominations and was not epic in scope, which broke trends. By the Book: Stephen Spielberg Deep Vote : David O. Russell

7 BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Seamus McGarvey Anna Karenina Robert Richardson Django Unchained Claudio Miranda Life of Pi Janusz Kaminski Roger Deakins Skyfall Trends for Best Cinematography EPIC QUALITY: 28 of 30 winners' films were "Epic" in scope. Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina), Robert Richardson (Django Unchained), Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi), Janusz Kaminski () BEST PROD DESIGN: 24 of 30 winners' films were also Best Production Design nominees. Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina), Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi), Janusz Kaminski () BEST PICTURE NOM: 23 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. Robert Richardson (Django Unchained), Claudio Miranda (Life of Pi), Janusz Kaminski () BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 2 of 30 winners' films were the lowest grossing nominee. Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina) LACKS BEST DIRECTOR NOM: 7 of 30 winners' films lacked a Best Director nominee. Seamus McGarvey (Anna Karenina), Robert Richardson (Django Unchained), Roger Deakins (Skyfall) ASC WINNER: 11 of 30 winners also won the ASC Award. ASC Awards 2/9 Jeff Cronenweth - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo While not the ASC winner nor the lowest grossing nom, Cronenweth bucked the trends, winning despite his film lacking Production Design, Best Director and Best Picture noms. By the Book: Life of Pi Deep Vote :

8 BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Michael Haneke Amour Quentin Tarentino Django Unchained John Gatins Flight Wes Anderson Roman Coppola Moonrise Kingdom Mark Boal Zero Dark Thirty Trends for Best Original Screenplay WGA WINNER: 27 of 30 winners also won the Writers Guild Award. WGA Awards 2/17 BEST PICTURE NOM: 26 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. Michael Haneke (Amour), Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty) BEST DIRECTOR NOM: 25 of 30 winners' films also had a Best Director nominee. Michael Haneke (Amour) QUIRKY QUALITY: 25 of 30 winners' films had a quirky quality. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom) LACKED ACTING NOMS: 2 of 30 winners' films lacked acting nominees. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom) EPIC QUALITY: 1 of 30 winners' films were "Epic" in scope. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained), Mark Boal (Zero Dark Thirty) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 2 of 30 winners' films were the lowest grossing nominee. Michael Haneke (Amour) MULTIPLE CREDITED WRITERS: 8 of 30 winners were co-writers. Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola (Moonrise Kingdom) Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris Woody Allen's quirky, WGA winning script and Best Picture nominee also had him nominated for Best Director. Midnight in Paris was not the lowest grossing nom and Woody was the only credited writer. Though it wasn't an epic and it lacked acting noms, this script took home Oscar gold. By the Book: Django Unchained Deep Vote : Zero Dark Thirty

9 BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Chris Terrio Argo Lucy Alibar Benh Zeitlin Beasts of the Southern Wild David Magee Life of Pi Tony Kushner David O. Russell Silver Linings Playbook Trends for Best Adapted Screenplay WGA WINNER: 19 of 30 winners also won the Writers Guild Award. WGA Awards 2/17 BEST PICTURE NOM: 28 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. Chris Terrio (Argo), Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild), David Magee (Life of Pi), Tony Kushner (), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) QUIRKY QUALITY: 24 of 30 winners' films had a quirky quality. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) EPIC QUALITY: 19 of 30 winners' films were "Epic" in scope. David Magee (Life of Pi), Tony Kushner () LACKED ACTING NOMS: 3 of 30 winners' films lacked acting nominees. David Magee (Life of Pi) BOX OFFICE BASEMENT: 1 of 30 winners' films were the lowest grossing nominee. Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) 1+ CREDITED WRITER: 11 of 30 winners were co-writers. Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild) Payne, Faxon & Rash - The Descendants Last years winner: Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash s WGA winning script and Best Picture nominee wasn't the lowest grossing nom and had George Clooney up for Best Actor. Despite the multiple writers, its lack of quirkiness and far from epic scale, this trifecta took Oscar home. By the Book: Silver Linings Playbook Deep Vote : Argo

10 BEST EDITING William Goldenberg Argo Tim Squyres Life of Pi Michael Kahn Jay Cassidy Crispin Struthers Silver Linings Playbook Dylan Tichenor William Goldenberg Zero Dark Thirty Trends for Best Editing BEST PICTURE NOM: 25 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. William Goldenberg (Argo), Tim Squyres (Life of Pi), Michael Kahn (), Paul N.J. Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playbook), Dylan Tichenor and Willeam Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty) ACE WINNER: 23 of 30 winners also won the American Cinema Editors Award. ACE Awards 2/16 COMEDY CURSE: 2 of 30 winners were editors of comedies. Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playbook) MULTIPLE CREDITED EDITORS: 8 of 30 winners were co-editors. Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers (Silver Linings Playbook), Dylan Tichenor and Willeam Goldenberg (Zero Dark Thirty) FIRST TIME NOM: 12 of 30 winners were first time nominees. s Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Definitely not a victim of the comedy curse, this drama broke tradition and won despite no Best Picture nom, no ACE Award, and being a first-time nominated duo. By the Book: Zero Dark Thirty Deep Vote : Argo

11 BEST FOREIGN FILM Amour Austria Kon-Tiki Norway No Chile A Royal Affair Denmark War Witch Canada Trends for Best Foreign Film SOCIAL ISSUES: 15 of 30 winners dealt with social issues. No (Chile), Amour (Austria) NON-WESTERN EU PICTURE: 17 of 30 films were produced outside of the Western EU. No (Chile), Kon-Tiki (Norway), A Royal Affair (Denmark) BASED ON TRUE STORY: 2 of 30 films were biopics or based on a true story. Kon-Tiki (Norway), No (Chile), A Royal Affair (Denmark) LONGEST RUN TIME: 8 of 30 winners had the longest running time A Royal Affair (Denmark) s A Separation - Iran This socially-minded, non-eu film didn't have the longest running time. If Amour wins this year, similar subject matter will have won two years in a row. By the Book: Amour Deep Vote : Amour

12 BEST ANIMATED FILM Brave Mark Andrews and Brenda Chapman Frankenweenie Tim Burton ParaNorman Sam Fell and Chris Butler The Pirates! Band of Misfits Peter Lord Wreck-It Ralph Rich Moore Trends for Best Animated Film MOST NOMS: 9 of 11 winners had the most nominations. Only nomination for all nominees. RESCUE STORY: 9 of 11 winners were rescue stories. Brave, ParaNorman BOX OFFICE CHAMP: 6 of 11 winners were the highest grossing nominee. Brave PGA WINNER: 5 of 7 winners also won the PGA Award. Wreck-It Ralph DIRECTOR'S FIRST NOM: 4 of 11 winners were the director's first nomination. ParaNorman, Wreck-It Ralph SUMMER RELEASE: 3 of 11 winners were summer releases. Brave, ParaNorman LOVE STORY: 2 of 11 winners were love stories. SEQUEL: 1 of 11 winners were sequels. Rango This well-loved animated rescue flick wasn't a sequel or a love story and despite a spring release, a first time nominated director and a PGA loss, Rango came out a winner. By the Book: Brave Deep Vote : Wreck-It Ralph

13 BEST SONG Before My Time Chasing Ice Music and Lyric by J. Ralph Everybody Needs A Best Friend Ted Music by Walter Murphy; Lyric by Seth MacFarlane Pi s Lullaby Life of Pi Music by Mychael Danna; Lyric by Bombay Jayashri Skyfall Skyfall Music and Lyric by Adele Adkins and Paul Epworth Trends for Best Song LACKED BEST PICTURE NOM: 26 of 30 winners' films were also Best Picture nominees. Suddenly Les Miserables Music by Claude-Michel Schonbereg;; Lyric by Herbert Kretzmer and Alain Boublil "Before My Time" - Chasing Ice, "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Ted, "Skyfall" - Skyfall GG WINNER: 24 of 30 winners were also Golden Globe winners. "Skyfall" - Skyfall NOT FILM'S ONLY NOM: 24 of 30 winners were not film's only nominee. "Pi's Lullaby" - Life of Pi, "Skyfall" - Skyfall, "Suddenly" - Les Miserables NO PREVIOUS NOMS: 18 of 30 winners were first-time nominees. "Before My Time" - Chasing Ice, "Everybody Needs a Best Friend" - Ted, "Pi's Lullaby" - Life of Pi, "Skyfall" - Skyfall, "Suddenly" - Les Miserables Man or Muppet - The Muppets Without a Best Picture nom and no previous noms for the songwriters, "Man or Muppet," despite not getting the Golden Globe and being the film's only nom, came out an Oscar winner. By the Book: Skyfall Deep Vote : Suddenly,, Les Miserables

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