Architecting the new TV. Daniel Knapp, Director Advertising Research
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1 Architecting the new TV Daniel Knapp, Director Advertising Research
2
3 Media trends have always sparked speculations and visions sometimes remarkably accurate How we will live in the year 2000 (German artist 1908) Apple iphone 4 (2010)
4 1. How we consume: the longevity of TV
5 The death of TV
6 Major channel owners launched 144 channels in 2013, FIC & Chello were most active in Europe* new-to-country channel launches
7 We expect overall television viewing to continue increasing over the years to All TV viewing time: Mins/person/day UK France Germany Italy Spain Sweden 0
8 But broadcast television viewing to flatten and/or decline as non-linear mechanisms take over 350 Broadcast TV viewing time: Mins/person/day UK France Germany Italy Spain Sweden 0 Source: IHS, national audience panels
9 Non-traditional viewing mechanisms driving much of the growth, but substantial country-variation 350 Non-traditional TV viewing time: Mins/person/day UK France Germany Italy Spain Sweden 0 Source: IHS, national audience panels
10 Declines in TV viewing time are starting to become noticeable in younger demographic groups 7 Daily hours of broadcast TV viewing per age group (# hours/person/day) New panel Children UK example, source: BARB
11 But use of online video in older age-groups is growing consistently Source: BBC BBC iplayer users by age-bracket (% of users)
12 2. Where we consume: de-centering the big screen
13 Emerging device landscape threatens to disrupt traditional consumer behaviour European TV market key performance indicators 2,5 100% Devices per household 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 80% 60% 40% 20% Household penetration (%) 0, % TV sets per HH Smartphones per HH Digital Pay TV Penetration Broadband penetration DVR penetration of pay TV
14 By 2020, we expect there to be 2bn connected devices across Europe Europe: Installed connected devices (m)
15 With growth driven by smartphones, tablets and smart TVs Europe: Installed connected devices (m) Digital media adapters Pay TV set-top boxes FTA set-top boxes BD players Smart TVs PCs Game consoles Tablets Smartphones
16 Proliferation of video-capable devices makes monetising audiences difficult for publishers Video-capable devices - Western Europe Smartphones Tablets Game consoles PCs Smart TVs Other devices TV sets
17 So which devices are users currently relying on? PC still represents the most important platform ITV RTL M6 Pay TV, 37% Mobile/ tablet, 10% Pay TV, 43% PC, 45% Connect ed TV, 2% Mobile/ tablet, 15% PC, 46% PC, 90% Connect ed TV, 0% Mobile/ tablet, 12%
18 Despite proliferation of devices, focus on DVR consumption forecloses monetization opportunities Non-linear viewing as a percentage of Total TV Viewing Time 9%) 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 2013: Non-linear TV Viewing Time Breakdown US UK France Germany Italy Spain In Germany, for instance we estimate that just 6% of TV viewing was non-linear in 2012 Roughly half of this was of OTT content DVR time-shifting of content represents the core of non-linear TV viewing in many markets VoD services have a far less significant effect on non-linear viewing time at the moment Pay-TV VoD OTT DVR time-shifting 18
19 3. Does revenue really follow eyeballs, just like that?
20 Funding and M&A activity trends are barometer for significance of video in digital media ecosystem Funding Amounts $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 Video Funding Activity Sum of Funding ($m) Deals Number of Deals $0 0 6 Video M&A Deals 5 Number of Deals
21 The global digital video market is now worth almost $15bn and predicted to grow to $30bn by Global digital video revenues (consumer/nar) - $m Digital Subscription (e.g. Netflix, Lovefilm, Hulu+) Digital Rental (e.g. itunes, Vudu) Digital Purchase (e.g. itunes, Microsoft) Broadcast (e.g. ABC, Hulu Classic, RTL) Other ad funded content (e.g. YouTube)
22 US-domestic and international markets are similar in size, but very different in business model composition Consumer/NAR by bus model ($m)* Other ad funded content Broadcast Purchase Rental Subscription US *includes TV and movies, and pay TV based platforms ROW
23 Mobile display advertising revenues are catching up with app spend 5 Western European app revenue & display advertising* per mobile subscription ( ) Smartphone app revenue per mobile subscription Display advertising spend per mobile subscription *display includes banner, video both in-app and browser
24 Devices still beat content and advertising revenues iphone device revenues vs. mobile advertising ($m) iphone Mobile advertising
25 OTT revenues are growing, but account for less than 3 % of the traditional TV revenues in EU Big 5 in Big 5: OTT vs. Traditional TV revenues ( m) 2.8% of sector revenue 4.4% of sector revenue Pay TV revenues TV advertising revenues OTT revenues
26 TV and movies are still behind the curve compared to other media sectors 50% % of UK sector turnover derived from OTT 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 3% 4% 4% 5% 6% 0% 1% 1% 2% 3% TV Movies Games Books Music
27 4. Re-thinking advertising: from averages to individuals
28 The data deluge: utopia & practice Technology: max computation power & algorithmic accuracy to gather, analyze, link, and compare large data sets Analysis: data informing patterns, predictions, discovering knowledge in data, correlation over causality Mythology: belief that data offers higher form of knowledge, provides insights that were previously impossible, data as magic bullet to all business problems, aura of truth, objectivity, and accuracy See also: boyd, danah and Kate Crawford. (2012). Critical Questions for Big Data: Provocations for a Cultural, Technological, and Scholarly Phenomenon. Information, Communication, & Society 15:5, p
29 Growth rates vary by market maturity, pace of adoption, structure of market players Video programmatic revenue CAGR Sweden 99,3% France 95,6% Germany 95,0% Spain 91,1% Italy 84,0% Europe 77,1% UK 61,4% 0,0% 20,0% 40,0% 60,0% 80,0% 100,0% 120,0% Source: IHS 2013 IHS
30 Types of media owners/platforms show different adoption curves of programmatic video Big 5: programmatic share of online video ad revenue (%) 60% 50% 40% 30% 25,8% 30,3% 33,2% 20% 12,2% 18,7% 10% 4,6% 0% Source: IHS Broadcasters YouTube Other Total 2013 IHS
31 5. Publishers as audience architects
32 Most publishers are still in nascent stages of developing a data strategy Publishers in Europe in H1 2013* 20% 80% No data strategy Data strategy * source: IHS biannual publisher survey
33 Most publishers are still in nascent stages of developing a data strategy Publishers in Europe in H1 2013* Publishers in the US 2013** 20% 28% 80% 72% No data strategy Data strategy No data strategy Data strategy * source: IHS biannual publisher survey ** source: IAB/Winterberry Group Whitepaper
34 Why a data strategy? A. Demand-side innovations B. Competition from online giants C. Adding transparency to existing data regime D. Connecting audiences across screens
35 GRP-like metrics by Nielsen, comscore improve measurability, but put publishers under pressure Trading desks DSPs Ad Exchanges/ SSPs Ad networks
36 Publishers are already marginalised in display USA: Online display NAR by company ($m) AOL Microsoft Yahoo! Facebook Google Others
37 and YouTube commands a dominating position in the ad-funded online video sector Global ad-funded video revenue ($9.1bn) Others, 59% YouTube, 41%
38 Publishers need to proactively create transparency Ad tech companies suck in data and define prices on that basis. But I never had a fair answer from ad tech companies who is auditing their data. (Publisher)
39 Personally identifiable log-in data becomes crucial as 3 rd party cookies face pressure New service providers Growing proprietary ecosystems m Millions of users by service Apple ID with credit card icloud users Game center users Mac installed base Active buyers Activated Android devices Active Chrome users Google+ active users G+ users active in G+ Windows 7 PCs Monthly active users Mobile MAUs Mobile-only MAUs
40 Data strategy: adoption varies among publishers Predisposition Online portals & print Open to experimentation duet o either 1) understanding the experimental nature of online or 2) originating for a declining print business Broadcasters Reluctant to adopt new unproven techniques as they comes from a longtested TV background Aware of the urgency to use data Video ad networks Accustomed to selling audiences Most advanced in understanding the value of data Challenges State of adoption of data strategy Advanced in their thinking about data strategy Combining 1 st and 3 rd party data effectively Leveraging data with context to enhance their offering Various states of adoption from early to advanced: tend to be more advanced than broadcasters Fear of alienating users by asking for registration data Connecting data available across devices Early: the process of understanding their 1 st party data Cannot offer premium context in the way the other two can Combining 1 st and 3 rd party data effectively Advanced: already use 3 rd party data extensively and working on integration of 1 st party data
41 Data strategies what are publishers currently doing? Data is key to their long-term selling strategy 10% of ad revenues come from programmatic Programmatic is part of their media planning strategy, but not creative Own trading desk (Response+) to implement demand-side capabilities 1 st party data is still underdeveloped Display is traded programmatically, but not video Cautious of middlemen Work solely with 1 st party data 3 rd party data is too expensive and frankly not very good Direct sales remains the primary and preferred channel Cooperate with other publishers in data strategy
42 Thank
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