Extra scenario with three versus four E-ferries for the total ferry service of Aeroe
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1 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 1 Extra scenario with three versus four E-ferries for the total ferry service of Aeroe Content: SCENARIO 1 & 2 TIME-TABLES... 2 SCENARIO 1 & 2 ROUNDTRIPS AND CAPACITY... 8 SCENARIO 3 TIME-TABLES... 9 SCENARIO 3 ROUNDTRIPS AND CAPACITY Purpose of extra scenario The purpose of this extra scenario is to evaluate the expected cost and income difference between operation with four small E-ferries versus operation with three bigger E-ferries investment costs included. 1.1 Methodology An alternative with three large E-ferries will affect almost every operational and economic parameter of the case study. Therefore calculations in this annex are subject to higher uncertainties than for the three base scenarios made in the main analysis as many assumptions have to be made, e.g. when it comes to energy consumption of the larger ferry size for which no CFD calculations have been prepared. New building prices are also subject to uncertainties as no indication price exists for the larger ferry design. Estimates are based on roughly made corrections to steel weights and requirements for extra equipment etc. For changes to energy efficiency and operating cost these issues are discussed in brief analyses describing most important assumptions and impacts in the following chapters. The same goes for the impacts to transport qualities affecting demand. For example will the total number of departures with three E-ferries only be marginally higher than now wherefore extra demand scenarios must be adjusted down. Finally the found impacts to both investment cost, operating cost and revenues will be summarised in order to evaluate the overall pros and cons and indicate if there is an economies of scale effect of choosing larger E-ferries for the total ferry service of Aeroe at present technological stage. 2 Energy efficiency and capacity Energy efficiency of a longer vessel is better measured as deadweight to energy needed ratio. Capacity utilisation however will change. The flexibility of tonnage is less with three than with four ferries. Cuts have to be made in the departure plan. In peak season average load factor of only three ferries will become higher but in off season it will be dramatically lower if a sufficient number of departures should be obtained over the working day.
2 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 2 Thus average load factor and energy efficiency ratio is expected to be reduced some in total due to a higher number of half empty departures in the total sailing schedule. The energy consumption per trip is estimated to increase around 15 % due to the higher weight of ship and cargo despite a better deadweight to energy needed ratio. This is also caused by an expected increase in frequency of delays due to the higher number of cars per port call that entering and leaving the ferry. Two minutes shorter time for transit will increase energy consumption per trip around 25 %. The total annual PCU capacity is increased more than for the three base scenarios with four smaller E-ferries but peak capacity will not meet the same standards Scenario 1 & 2 time-tables Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Peak Season (13 weeks) Monday to Friday Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
3 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 3 Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Peak Season (13 weeks) Saturday and Sunday Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
4 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 4 Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Shoulder Season (13 weeks) Monday to Friday Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Postponed 30 minutes relative to peak season Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
5 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 5 Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Shoulder Season (13 weeks) Saturday and Sunday Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Only Sun. Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
6 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 6 Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Off Season (26 weeks) Monday to Friday (Each ferry docking 7-10 days) Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Postponed 30 minutes relative to peak season Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
7 Schedule of principle Scenario 1 & 2 Off Season (26 weeks) Saturday and Sunday (Each ferry docking 7-10 days) Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 7 Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Short crew watch Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Only Sat. Only Sun. Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
8 Scenario 1 & 2 roundtrips and capacity Capacity comparison, Scenario 1 & 2 2x25 PCU and 2x28 PCU E-ferries Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 8 Daily double trips Peak season 13 weeks Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn 11 * Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity Shoulder season 13 weeks Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity Off season 26 weeks (Docking 7-10 days) Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity *12 at thursdays and fridays NB: Nominal capacity for M/F Skjoldnæs reduced to 33 PCU. All ferries loose 6 PCU if suspended car decks are blocked by trucks 3-hour peak capacity No reductions 3-hour peak capacity Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Søby-Fåborg PCU capacity PCU capacity % 32% Ærøsk.-Fyn reduced from 42 to 39 due to trucks blocking suspendable car decks Søby-Fåborg reduced from 33 to 27 due to trucks blocking suspendable car decks Trips total Today E-Ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg %
9 Scenario 3 time-tables Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Peak Season (13 weeks) Monday to Friday Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 9 Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
10 Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Peak Season (13 weeks) Saturday and Sunday Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 10 Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
11 Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Shoulder Season (13 weeks) Monday to Friday Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 11 Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Postponed 30 minutes relative to peak season Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
12 Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Shoulder Season (13 weeks) Saturday and Sunday Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 12 Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Only Sun. Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
13 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 13 Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Off Season (26 weeks) Monday to Friday (Each ferry 7-10 days of drydocking) Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Postponed 30 minutes relative to peak season Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
14 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 14 Schedule of principle Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg Off Season (26 weeks) Saturday and Sunday (Each ferry 7-10 days of drydocking) Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Dep. Aeroe Arr. Fyn Dep. Fyn Arr. Aeroe Only Sat. Only Sun. Only Sun. Dep. Soeby Arr. Als Dep. Als Arr. Soeby Dep. Soeby Arr. Faaborg Dep. Als Arr. Soeby
15 Socio-economic Analysis Annex IV 15 Scenario 3 roundtrips and capacity Capacity comparison, Scenario 3 Ærøskøbing-Svendborg 2x25 PCU and 2x28 PCU E-ferries Daily double trips Peak season 13 weeks Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn 11 * Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity Shoulder season 13 weeks Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity Off season 26 weeks (Docking 1 week each ferry) Monday-Friday Saturday Sunday Trips Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Total PCU capacity *12 at thursdays and fridays NB: Nominal capacity for M/F Skjoldnæs reduced to 33 PCU. All ferries loose 6 PCU if suspended car decks are blocked by trucks 3-hour peak capacity No reductions 3-hour peak capacity Today E-ferries Today E-ferries Ærøsk.-Fyn % Ærøsk.-Fyn % Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg Søby-Fåborg PCU capacity PCU capacity % 18% Ærøsk.-Fyn reduced from 42 to 39 due to trucks blocking suspendable car decks Søby-Fåborg reduced from 33 to 27 due to trucks blocking suspendable car decks Trips total Ærøsk.-Fyn Søby-Fynshav Søby-Fåborg
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