EMGE WOODFREE FORECAST REPORT - INCLUDING FORECASTS OF DEMAND, SUPPLY AND PRICES AUGUST Paper Industry Consultants

Transcription

1 EMGE Paper Industry Consultants WOODFREE FORECAST REPORT - INCLUDING FORECASTS OF DEMAND, SUPPLY AND PRICES AUGUST 2016

2 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Page A - TERMS & CONDITIONS Our products are supplied under the following terms and conditions, which cover material in all forms including paper, electronic, etc.: CONFIDENTIALITY All information provided is strictly confidential unless otherwise stated. The Client is responsible for safeguarding this confidentiality. The information contained in our publications is provided only for legitimate commercial purposes; it is not to be used in legal or anti-trust action against others. COPYRIGHT At EMGE we aim to assist clients in using our information, however it is your individual responsibility as well as that of your company to abide by the rules and regulations as set out under European & International copyright law. Terms for standard usage Making copies of our work is not permitted. No part of any EMGE publication may be reproduced in any form, for external or internal use, without prior written permission from EMGE. None of the material provided may be copied or shown to other companies, industry consultants, finance companies or investment houses, under any circumstances. You do, however, have permission to replicate small samples of non-sensitive information as required, on the condition that you clearly acknowledge the source. If you have any doubts as to the legitimate use of our information, please contact EMGE. Additional Terms for Groupwide Distribution Licence holders only Copies of EMGE publications purchased under a Groupwide Distribution Licence may be distributed internally within the group only. Normally licences are granted under a regional basis, unless specified as a Global Groupwide Licence. It is strictly forbidden to pass any data from EMGE reports in any form whatsoever to anyone outside of the client s company, especially (but not only) to other consulting companies. DISCLAIMER While we aim to ensure that the information contained in our publications is as reliable as possible, we cannot accept responsibility for actions or decisions taken by the client, other company or person arising from our work. EMGE & Co. Ltd. PO Box 200 Truro Cornwall TR1 1FN United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) post@emge.com URL:

3 Page B EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Table of contents Page Introduction 2 Changes to the forecast 3 1. Forecast Summary: Data 5 Annual Forecast Summary: Europe-30 6 Annual Forecast Summary: W. Europe-16 7 Annual Forecast Summary: E.Europe-14 8 Annual Forecast Summary: Russia 9 2. Forecast Brief Overview Caveats Capacity Forecast Capacity Overview Capacity Projections, CWF - tonnage details Capacity Projections, CWF Other Europe Capacity Projections, UWF - tonnage details Capacity Projections, UWF Others Investment Details - Listing of Plans Supply-Demand Balance Delivery Lead Times Supply-Demand Outlook (Quarterly) Supply-Demand Outlook (Annual) Supply-Demand Outlook (Base vs. Forecast) Historical Context Capacity Gap per Forecast Capacity Cut-size Papers Demand Supply Consolidation & Leading Suppliers Consolidation Trends, Pi-HHi Consolidation - Leading Companies Cut-Size Leading Companies Trade Trade Forecast 49

4 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Page C Table of contents (continued) 8. Paper Prices Paper and Pulp Prices Exchange Rates Pulp Price & Paper Margins Market Pulp Prices Paper-Makers Converting Margins 62 Appendix 1 : Market Indicators 65 Appendix 2 : Demand Forecast Grade/Region 67 Appendix 3 : Quarterly Forecasts 97 A3.1. Market Forecast Quarterly Coated Woodfree 97 A3.2. Market Forecast Quarterly Uncoated Woodfree 102

5 Page D EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 List of tables Page 1. Woodfree Demand Long-Term Forecast, by Grade 3 2. Woodfree Paper Market Forecast 5 3. Woodfree Paper Market Summary, EE Woodfree Paper Market Summary, WE Woodfree Paper Market Summary, EE Woodfree Paper Market Summary, Russia 9 7. Demand Forecast W.Europe Demand Forecast E.Europe Capacity Forecast Changes, by Region Capacity Forecast Changes, by Mill - CWF Capacity Forecast Changes, Other Europe CWF Capacity Forecast Changes, by Mill - UWF Capacity Forecast Changes, Others UWF Investment Listing Major Woodfree Paper Capacity Changes, Woodfree Quarterly Operating Ratios Forecast Operating Ratios, by Region Base and Unspecified Capacity Forecasts UWF Cut-Size Market, Europe Quarterly UWF Cut-Size Market, Europe Fine Papers - Leading W dfree Paper Companies Cut-Size - Leading Companies Trade Forecast, Europe by Grade Offshore Imports/Exports Forecast, Europe Offshore Import Sources Uncoated Woodfree Import Projections Unc. Woodfree, Europe Import Projections UWF A4 Cut-Size, Europe Import Projections UWF Reels/Folio, Europe Paper and Pulp Price Forecast Euro Paper and Pulp Price Forecast - UK Exchange Rates Pulp Price Forecast EMGE s Economic Forecast Trends - GDP & Paper Demand, Europe Trends - GDP & Paper Demand, W.Europe Trends - GDP & Paper Demand, E.Europe Grade Demand Outlook Grade Demand Outlook (% Growth) 72

6 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Page E List of tables (continued) 39. Grade Demand Forecast - CWF, Europe Grade Demand Forecast - CWF, W.Europe Grade Demand Forecast - CWF, E.Europe Grade Demand Forecast UWF, Europe Grade Demand Forecast UWF, W.Europe Grade Demand Forecast - UWF, E.Europe Demand Forecast - CWF Sheets Demand Forecast - CWF Reels Demand Forecast - CWF 2-Side Demand Forecast - UWF Reels Demand Forecast - UWF Folio Demand Forecast - UWF Cutsize Demand Forecast UWF Papers Demand Forecast Germany Demand Forecast France Demand Forecast UK Demand Forecast Italy Demand Forecast Nordic Demand Forecast Benelux Demand Forecast Iberia Demand Forecast Other W.Europe Demand Forecast W.Europe Demand Forecast E.Europe Demand Forecast Europe CWF (2-Side) - Quarterly Market, Europe CWF (2-Side) - Quarterly Market, W.Europe CWF Reels & Sheets (2-Side) Q. Demand, Europe CWF Reels & Sheets (2-Side) Q. Demand, W.Europe CWF Reels & Sheets (2-Side) Q. Demand, E.Europe UWF - Quarterly Market, Europe UWF - Quarterly Market, W.Europe UWF - Quarterly Market, E.Europe UWF Reels, Folio & Cut-Size Q. Demand, Europe UWF Reels, Folio & Cut-Size Q. Demand, W.Eur UWF Reels, Folio & Cut-Size Q. Demand, E.Eur

7 Page F EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 List of charts Page I. European WF Paper Demand vs. OECD Leading Indicators 2 II. Historical W dfree Paper Demand Growth, Europe III. Woodfree Paper Demand Growth, Europe IV. Magazine Advertising Spend Growth 13 V. GDP Growth - Russia 14 VI. Woodfree Demand Growth EE VII. Delivery Lead Times Europe 31 VIII. Shipments vs. Capacity 34 IX. Operating Ratios Base vs. Forecast 36 X. Forecast Operating Ratio Gap, Europe XI. Cut-Size Supply-Demand, Europe XII. Industry Consolidation Fine Papers 41 XIII. Consolidation Historical Pi-HHi 42 XIV. Uncoated W dfree Cut-Size Prices 46 XV. Coated W dfree Offshore Imports, Europe XVI. Uncoated W dfree Offshore Imports, Europe XVII. Uncoated Woodfree Exports x-europe XVIII. Coated Woodfree Exports x-europe XIX. Exports x-europe XX. Uncoated W dfree Offshore Imports, Europe XXI. Comparative Cut-Size Prices GB /T 53 XXII. Historical CWF Reels and Market Pulp 55 XXIII. Historical Monthly Paper Prices 55 XXIV. Pulp to Paper Price Ratios Europe 56 XXV. Exchange Rates Euro vs. US Dollar 59 XXVI. Exchange Rates Euro vs. GB Pound 59 XXVII. Margins Integrated vs. Non-Integrated, CWF 62 XXVIII. Margins Integrated vs. Non-Integrated, Cut-Size 63 XXIX. Market Pulp Price Forecast 63 XXX. Purchasing Managers Indices, Europe 65 XXXI. Consumer Confidence Indicator, Europe 65 XXXII. Share Prices 66 XXXIII. Coated Woodfree Demand Growth, Europe XXXIV. Uncoated Woodfree Demand Growth, Europe XXXV. UWF Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 80

8 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Page G List of charts (continued) XXXVI. Cut-Size Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 80 XXXVII. UWF Reels Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 81 XXXVIII. UWF Folio Sheets Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 81 XXXIX. Coated W dfree Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 82 XL. CWF Sheets Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 82 XLI. CWF Reels Paper Demand, Europe-30 by Region 83

9 Page H EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 BLANK PAGE

10 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Page 1 Regional Classifications The EMGE European Woodfree Report is structured to include both Western Europe and Eastern/Other Europe region (excluding Russia), together with European-wide totals. We show selected forecasts separately for Russia. Specifically, there are 3 main geographical groupings in this report (W.Europe-16, E.Europe-14 and Europe-30), which are composed as follows: W. Europe-16: Germany, France, UK, Italy, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Belgium, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark, Ireland. Within this: Nordic = Finland, Norway, Sweden Benelux = Belgium, Luxemburg, Netherlands Iberia = Portugal, Spain Others = Austria, Denmark, Ireland, Switzerland E. Europe-14: Poland, Greece, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovenia, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Malta, Iceland Europe-30: All of the above. In addition to the above regions, we include a separate market forecast Russia (see page 9). Quarterly Market forecast tables have been organised into their own section (see page APPENDIX, pages 65 onwards). However, the Cut-Size quarterly Supply-demand forecasts are provided on pages 39 and 40. EMGE & Co. Ltd. 2016

11 Page 2 EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016 Introduction In W.Europe, the OECD CHART I. EUROPEAN WF PAPER DEMAND vs. OECD LEADING INDICATORS composite leading indicator (CLI) has been flat and close to zero for the past months, while Woodfree Paper demand was mainly negative, % pa 16% 12% 8% 4% 3 MMA Annual Growth - W.Europe Woodfree Paper Demand vs CLI (W.Europe) Composite Leading Indicator 2-3 month lag but improving into zero/positive territory towards the latter part of % -4% -8% -12% WE W'dfree Paper Demand (to Jun-16) -16% -20% * The OECD Composite Leading Indicator is based on a various financial and business factors, which are calculated statistically to provide a few months advance notice of economic activity in this instance we have used the OECD W.European series. EMGE & Co. Ltd This forecast report ( EUROPEAN WOODFREE AUGUST 2016") is an update in the EMGE series EUROPEAN WOODFREE FORECASTS. In this report, we present updated new forecasts for the European Woodfree paper market to 2020 (base year is 2015). Based on all the data available (to JUNE 2016) and combining the latest developments in the markets, we present an updated outlook for demand, trade, investment, capacity, operating rates and prices for the European Woodfree paper markets. We also include Quarterly Supply-demand forecasts for Cut-Size papers (see page 40), in addition to our usual CWF and UWF Supply-demand Forecasts. The regional coverage is Europe-30, sub-divided into Western Europe-16 (WE-16) and Eastern Europe (EE-14). Russian markets are covered separately (see page 9). The sub-grades covered include Coated Woodfree Sheets and Reels, as well as Uncoated Woodfree Cut-Size, Folio Sheets and Reels. The report does not cover speciality grades or 1-side Coateds. The companion report EMGE World Graphic Papers evaluates the outlook for the global supply-demand balance for all Printing/Writing paper grades, including Coated Woodfree (CWF) and Uncoated Woodfree (UWF).