Global Trends in Printing and Writing Papers

Transcription

1 Global Trends in Printing and Writing Papers By Pira International, Ltd. Cleeve Road, Leatherhead Surrey KT22 7RU, United Kingdom Phone: PRIMIR/NPES

2 Global Trends in Printing and Writing Papers TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Key Findings Economic Issues E-technology Environmental Regional Differences and Grades Assessment of Regional Differences End-Use Implications Future Projections Scenario: Six Turbulent Months - and New Growth in 2010 Insights for PRIMIR Members I ii iii vii viii ix x xi xv xvi xix I INTRODUCTION, OBJECTIVES & METHODOLOGY BACKGROUND 1 Objectives 2 Scope 3 Research Methodology 3 Phase One - Research 5 Phase Two Analysis and Implications 10 II ISSUES AND TRENDS FOR PRINTING AND WRITING PAPERS 11 Key Takeaways 11 Introduction 14 Suppliers Insight 15 Future of Paper Products in a Rapidly Changing World 15 General Economic Downturn Second Half of Availability and Quality of Fiber 23 Developments in Fiber and Filler Composition 24 Environmental Issues 28 Trends in Basis Weights 30 Grade Substitution 32 Distribution and Postal Issues 34 Other Product Development Issues - Whiteness and Brightness 36 Emerging Print Technologies and Selection of Print Method 37 Emergence of Alternate Media Choices 39 End User/Customer Needs 40 End User Insight 42

3 Introduction 42 Importance of Paper Characteristics 42 Importance of Supplier Selection Criteria 47 Printers 49 Publishers 50 Corporate Print and Paper Buyers 51 Ad Agencies and Direct Mail 52 III REGIONAL DIFFERENCES AND GRADES 53 Key Takeaways 53 Introduction 53 Regional Differences 54 Different Grades for Different Markets? 54 Cost and Mill Choice Greater Drivers than Customer Demand 56 Regional Differences are Diminishing 57 Key Paper Characteristics for North America vs. Europe 58 Lightweight Coated and Supercalendered 62 Comparison of Optical Properties 67 Comparison of Physical Properties - LWC and SC 68 Coated Woodfree 71 Comparison of Optical Properties 75 Comparison of Physical Properties 77 Uncoated Offset 80 Comparison of Optical Properties 84 Comparison of Physical Properties 85 Copy Paper 89 IV GLOBAL PRINTING AND WRITING DYNAMICS 93 Key Takeaways 93 Introduction 95 Global Overview 97 North America 99 Overview 100 North American Paper Markets 101 North American Print Market 105 Grade Mix 110 Coated Woodfree 112 Coated Mechanical 114 Uncoated Mechanical 116 Uncoated Woodfree 118

4 Europe 119 Other regions 122 End Use Trends 124 Publishing Trends 125 Office Paper Market 130 Catalog Trends 134 Catalogs - North American Market 136 Direct Mail Market 137 Magazine Market 148 V IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE TRENDS 161 Key Takeaways 161 Implications 162 Introduction 162 Analysis 163 Future Trends and Forecasts 177 Introduction 177 The Scenarios 178 Scenario 1: Six Turbulent Months - and New Growth in Scenario 2: Six Turbulent Months - Followed by Stagnation in the West 180 Scenario 3: Several Turbulent Years - Followed by New Growth in Scenario 4: Several Turbulent Years - Followed by Global Stagnation 183 The Forecasts 184 VI CONCLUSIONS AND INSIGHTS FOR PRIMIR MEMBERS 195 Conclusions 195 Economic Issues 195 E-technology 198 Environmental 199 Insights for PRIMIR Members 200 Film, Plate and Supplies Manufacturers 200 Ink, Toner, Coatings and Chemical Manufacturers 202 Paper and Synthetic Substrate Manufacturers and Distributors 204 Traditional Press Manufacturers 205 Postpress Equipment Manufacturers 207 Digital Press/Output Device Manufacturers 208 Prepress Equipment and Software Manufacturers 208 Print Firms and Trade Shops/ Print Buyers and Brokers 209 Other Software and Equipment Manufacturers 210

5 A1. Glossary of Terms 213 A2. Conversion Factors 221 Grammage and Basis Weights 221 Tonne vs Ton 221 A3. Paper Grades 222 Coated Papers and Supercalendered 222 Uncoated Papers 222 A4. Optical Tests Undertaken 223

6 LIST OF EXHIBITS Exhibit I-1 Research Methodology 4 Exhibit I-2 Survey Respondents by Type 7 Exhibit I-3 Survey Respondents by Region 8 Exhibit II-1 Hardwood and Softwood Pulp Prices, Exhibit II-2 World Market Pulp Statistics 21 Exhibit II-3 Prices of Native Starch, Western Europe, Q vs. Q Exhibit II-4 Importance of Key Paper Characteristics 43 Exhibit II-5 Paper Characteristics Trade-offs 46 Exhibit II-6 Supplier Selection Criteria 48 Exhibit III-1 Physical Testing Program 60 Exhibit III-2 Reasons for Preference (percent of time preferred) 62 Exhibit III-3 LWC and SC Optical Testing Results 63 Exhibit III-4 LWC and SC Physical Testing Results 64 Exhibit III-5 Visual Assessments, LWC and SC, Percent of the Time Preferred 64 Exhibit III-6 LWC and SC Reasons for Preference 65 Exhibit III-7 LWC and SC Reasons for Preference, Technical vs Non-technical View 66 Exhibit III-8 Comparison of Optical Properties LWC and SC 67 Exhibit III-9 Parker Printsurf LWC-SC 69 Exhibit III-10 Static Coefficient of Friction LWC-SC 70 Exhibit III-11 Dynamic Coefficient of Friction LWC-SC 70 Exhibit III-12 Comparison of Surface Properties LWC-SC 71 Exhibit III-13 CWF Optical Testing Results 72 Exhibit III-14 CWF Physical Testing Results 72 Exhibit III-15 Visual Assessments, CWF, Percent of the Time Preferred 73 Exhibit III-16 CWF Reasons for Preference (Percent of the Time Reason was Given) 74 Exhibit III-17 CWF, Excluding Sample D, Reasons for Preference 75

7 Exhibit III-18 Comparison of Optical Properties CWF 76 Exhibit III-19 Parker Printsurf CWF 78 Exhibit III-20 Static Coefficient of Friction CWF 78 Exhibit III-21 Dynamic Coefficient of Friction CWF 79 Exhibit III-22 Comparison of Surface Properties CWF 80 Exhibit III-23 Uncoated Offset Optical Testing Results 81 Exhibit III-24 Uncoated Offset Physical Testing Results 81 Exhibit III-25 Visual Assessments, Uncoated Offset, Percent of the Time Preferred 82 Exhibit III-26 Sample Evaluations 60# Opaque and Offset Imports 83 Exhibit III-27 Offset and Opaque Reasons for Preference 84 Exhibit III-28 Comparison of Optical Properties: Uncoated Offset 85 Exhibit III-29 Bendtsen Roughness Uncoated Offset 86 Exhibit III-30 Static Coefficient of Friction Uncoated Offset 87 Exhibit III-31 Dynamic Coefficient of Friction Uncoated Offset 88 Exhibit III-32 Comparison of Surface Properties Uncoated Offset 88 Exhibit III-33 Visual Assessments, Copy Paper, Percent of the Time Preferred 90 Exhibit III-34 Visual Assessments 80 gsm Imported Copy 90 Exhibit III gsm Imported Copy Reasons for Preference 91 Exhibit III-36 Visual Assessments 20# North American Copy 91 Exhibit III-37 20# North American Copy Reasons for Preference 92 Exhibit IV-1 The Printing and Writing Market for North America, 2007, in M tons. Total Market 30M tons 98 Exhibit IV-2 The Printing and Writing Market for Europe, 2007 in M tons. Total Market 33 M tons 98 Exhibit IV-3 The Printing and Writing Market for Asia and the Rest of the World, 2007, in M tons. Total Market 49 M tons 99 Exhibit IV-4 North American Printing and Writing Papers (000 tons) 100 Exhibit IV-5 Total North American Printing and Writing Consumption, (tons) 101

8 Exhibit IV-6 Real North American Demand in Printing and Writing Consumption, October 2008 February Exhibit IV-7 Printer Inventory Levels (tons) 103 Exhibit IV-8 North American Inventory Change, Exhibit IV-9 IDEAlliance Share of the North American Market Exhibit IV-10 North American Printing and Writing Apparent Consumption, Inventory Change and Real Demand 104 Exhibit IV-11 U.S. Commercial Print Sales ($ billion) 105 Exhibit IV-12 U.S. GDP, Employment and Print, Exhibit IV-13 Growth: Paper and Print, CAGR 107 Exhibit IV-14 Print Collapses Relative to Employment in Current Recession 108 Exhibit IV-15 U.S. Recession Exhibit IV-16 Print Has Not Kept Pace with Employment Since Exhibit IV-17 North American Printing and Writing Share by Grade, Exhibit IV-18 Grade Mix Change, , (000 tons) 111 Exhibit IV-19 North American Volume Change by Grade, , tons 112 Exhibit IV-20 North American CWF Demand, Exhibit IV-21 North American CWF, Real Demand, Percent change vs. Prior Year 113 Exhibit IV-22 North American CWF Apparent Consumption, Real Demand, and Inventory Change, Exhibit IV-23 North American CM Demand, , tons 114 Exhibit IV-24 North American CM Apparent Consumption, Real Demand, and Inventory Change, Exhibit IV-25 North American CM, Real Demand, Percent change vs Prior Year 116 Exhibit IV-26 North American UM Demand, , tons 116

9 Exhibit IV-27 North American UM, Apparent Consumption, Real Demand, and Inventory Change Exhibit IV-28 North American UM Real Demand, Percent Change vs. Prior Year 117 Exhibit IV-29 North American UWF Demand, , tons 118 Exhibit IV-30 North American UWF, Apparent Consumption, Real Demand, and Inventory Change Exhibit IV-31 North American UWF, Real Demand, Percent Change vs Prior Year 119 Exhibit IV-32 European Printing and Writing Paper Demand has Declined with Weaker Economic Growth 119 Exhibit IV-33 European Printing and Writing Paper Demand has Fallen Significantly in Early 2009 vs Exhibit IV-34 European CWF and UWF Statistics 120 Exhibit IV-35 European Mechanical Paper Statistics (x000 tonnes) 121 Exhibit IV-36 Capacity Reduction in Europe by Grade, (000t) 122 Exhibit IV-37 GDP for Selected Countries, 2008 and Exhibit IV-38 Paper Demand by End User in North America and Europe, Exhibit IV-39 U.S. Book Demand Exhibit IV-40 Advertising Expenditure on Direct Mail in Germany, Exhibit IV-41 US Postal Service Mail Volume by Type 147 Exhibit IV-42 Direct Mail Expenditure in the U.S., Exhibit IV-43 Real Magazine Advertising Expenditure in Key European Countries, Exhibit IV-44 U.S. Magazine Circulation, Exhibit IV-45 Growth in U.S. magazine Advertising Pages

10 inxhibit V-1 Gross Domestic Product of Selected Countries, Exhibit V-2 Printing and Writing Paper Demand by Region, Exhibit V-3 Printing and Writing Paper Demand by Region, Exhibit V-4 Printing and Writing Paper Demand by Region, Exhibit V-5 Printing and Writing Paper Demand by Region, Exhibit V-6 Annual Global Demand for Printing and Writing Paper, Exhibit V-7 Annual Global Demand for Printing and Writing Paper Exhibit V-8 Annual Demand for Printing and Writing Paper in North America Exhibit V-9 Annual Demand for Printing and Writing Paper in North America, Exhibit V-10 Global Demand for Printing and Writing Paper by Grade, Exhibit V-11 Global Demand for Printing and Writing Paper by Grade Exhibit V-12 Demand for Printing and Writing Paper by Grade for North America, Exhibit V-13 Demand for Printing and Writing Paper by Grade for North America, Exhibit V-14 Expected Capacity Changes by Region, Exhibit V-15 Expected Capacity Changes by Region, Exhibit V-16 Changing Market Share of Print Processes, by Market Value, in North America, Exhibit V-17 Market Share of Printed Products, by value, in North America,