Christina A. Cummings Advisor: Dr. Paul E. Todhunter Department of Geography Master s Thesis Defense November 1, Source: City of Fargo

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1 Using the HAZUS-MH Flood Model to Assess the Physical and Economic Damages at the City of Minnewaukan, North Dakota, due to the Expansion of Devils Lake Source: City of Fargo Christina A. Cummings Advisor: Dr. Paul E. Todhunter Department of Geography Master s Thesis Defense November 1, 2010

2 Today s Presentation Objectives Introduction Literature Review Data and Methods Analysis and Discussion Conclusions Acknowledgments References

Objectives Source: City of Fargo 1. To determine the Damage Estimation Profiles for the City of Minnewaukan at 1-foot increasing water surface elevations from 1452 to 1460 feet 2.

3 Objectives Source: City of Fargo 1. To determine the Damage Estimation Profiles for the City of Minnewaukan at 1-foot increasing water surface elevations from 1452 to 1460 feet 2. To identify the commercial and residential buildings affected at these water surface elevations -site-specific analysis within HAZUS 3. To produce a series of maps to identify which parts of the city that are at immediate risk

4 Devils Lake U.S. Army Corps of Engineers re-mosaiced LiDAR image of the Devils Lake Basin. Source: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul (2010)

5 Literature Review Source: City of Fargo A generalized hydrologic model for a closed lake is: input + output = change in storage A more specific model is: P LS A LS + Q i - E LS A LS = S P LS = precipitation on the lake surface A LS = area of the lake surface Q i = runoff E LS = evapotranspiration of the lake S = the change in storage (Williams 1996)

6 Period of record graph for Devils Lake, North Dakota. Source: USGS (2010)

Literature Review Table 1. An Estimation of the Total Expenditure spent on the Devils Lake region from 1994 into the 2011 season. Source: NDSWC Memorandum Aakre and Coon (2010).

7 Literature Review Table 1. An Estimation of the Total Expenditure spent on the Devils Lake region from 1994 into the 2011 season. Source: NDSWC Memorandum Aakre and Coon (2010). Organization Amount Spent Department of Transportation $341,702,941 Devils Lake Levee $172,987,729 Federal Emergency Management Agency $44,400,000 Devils Lake Outlet $42,000,000 US Army Corps of Engineers $26,215,000 Rail Repair $25,672,737 Housing and Urban Development $3,000 Total $655,978,407

8 Left: NDSWC Landsat Image of the Devils Lake Basin taken May 13, Source: ND State Water Commission (1992). Right: NDSWC Landsat Image of the Devils Lake Basin taken May 15, Source: ND State Water Commission (2010)

9 Image courtesy of FEMA

About Minnewaukan Sioux or Dakota word for Devils Lake, Mini Waukon Chante water of bad spirits the heart of enchanted water spirit lake 120 miles west of Grand Forks Major tourism industries:

10 About Minnewaukan Sioux or Dakota word for Devils Lake, Mini Waukon Chante water of bad spirits the heart of enchanted water spirit lake 120 miles west of Grand Forks Major tourism industries: Fishing and Birding Home to the Benson County Courthouse, Minnewaukan Public School, McQuoid Grocery Store, Minnewaukan Post Office, etc As of 2008, the population was 295 people (U.S. Census Bureau 2008)

11 Historical Minnewaukan The Minnie H. docked at Devils Lake, North Dakota. Source: North Dakota Historical Society and Minnewaukan History Book Committee (1983) Main Street Minnewaukan April Source: Minnewaukan History Book Committee (1983)

12 The HAZUS Software HAZards U.S. Multi-Hazard Developed by FEMA with National Institute of Building Sciences in the early 1990s for earthquake losses Earthquakes, Hurricane Winds, and Floods in 1997 Uses GIS to combine hazard data with national databases Standardized loss estimation and risk assessment methodology (Scawthorn et al. 2006a) Built-in national datasets including: -mapping schemes -general building stock -essential facilities -transportation systems -high potential loss facilities -attribute data -bridges -utility systems -highway and rail tracks -pipelines -peril specific data

13 The HAZUS Software Level 1: Involves only using the HAZUS-supplied, default inventory and hazard data tools -- using HAZUS straight out-of-the-box with no modifications (Eissler 2010). Level 2: Users provide better inventory (edits and additions) and/or better hazard data (local hydrologic and hydraulic study outputs) (Eissler 2010). Level 3: Users expand upon the improvements in Level 2 and modify the HAZUS loss estimation model to be more representative of your local area or region (Eissler 2010). Table courtesy of Craig Eissler

The HAZUS Software Create New Damage Functions (expert

Distribution of Terrain Damage Percentage of Area 40%

(add local H&H study via FIT) Level 2 User Modified Data

14 The HAZUS Software Create New Damage Functions (expert supplied) Link HAZUS with 3 rd party Hydraulic Model 45% Distribution of Terrain Damage Percentage of Area 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Open/Coastal Light Suburb. Med. Suburb. Dense Suburb. Urban Level 3 Flood Depth Update Inventory Modify Hazard (add local H&H study via FIT) Level 2 User Modified Data Level 1 HAZUS-supplied Inventory & HAZUS-produced Hazard Image courtesy of Craig Eissler

The HAZUS Software http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/hazus/hz_training09.

15 The HAZUS Software Unique application of HAZUS to a terminal lakeshore environment - Pioneering in HAZUS FEMA HAZUS courses at the National Emergency Training Center in Emmitsburg, MD - E313 Basic HAZUS-MH - E172 HAZUS-MH for Floods - E313 Comprehensive Data Management

16 Data and Methods Main data sources 1. December 2008 U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Structure Elevation Sheet Real Property Assessment Book for the City of Minnewaukan 3. More than 270 Individual Property Cards from the Benson Co Tax Assessor Office Technical Methods within Microsoft Access, SQL Server, HAZUS, and ArcGIS

17 1452 feet

18 1453 feet

19 1454 feet

20 1455 feet

21 1456 feet

22 1457 feet

23 1458 feet

24 1459 feet

25 1460 feet

27 Analysis and Discussion Number of Buildings Damaged per Water Surface Elevation Number of Buildings Damaged Total Number of Buildings Damaged Water Surface Elevation (Feet) WSE in Feet Total Number of Buildings Damaged Number of Residential Buildings Damaged Number of Commercial Buildings Damaged Number of Other Buildings Damaged

28 Analysis and Discussion Total Building Dollar Loss per Water Surface Elevation Total Building Dollar Loss Building Dollar Loss $2,500,000 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $ Water Surface Elevation (Feet) WSE in Feet Total Building Dollar Loss Residential Building Dollar Loss Commercial Building Dollar Loss Other Building Dollar Loss 1452 $1,987 $1,987 $0 $ $4,937 $4,937 $0 $ $20,555 $9,938 $0 $10, $115,121 $86,073 $0 $29, $320,031 $265,853 $13,999 $40, $489,617 $410,049 $15,829 $63, $776,534 $666,813 $17,650 $92, $1,309,624 $1,145,372 $27,544 $136, $1,957,653 $1,632,887 $44,150 $280,616

Conclusions Minnewaukan Public School is completely flooded at WSE 1456 feet Main Street at the entrance of the city is inundated at WSE 1457 feet An estimated total of $1.

29 Conclusions Minnewaukan Public School is completely flooded at WSE 1456 feet Main Street at the entrance of the city is inundated at WSE 1457 feet An estimated total of $1.9 million in building dollar losses at WSE 1460 feet Damage Estimation Profiles produced expected results The series of maps produced indicate which parts of the city are at immediate risk

out of the 300 buildings were tax exempt from the Property Cards HAZUS

30 Limitations Site-specific analysis only included building damages Building dollar losses are at the assessed value, not market value 23 out of the 300 buildings were tax exempt from the Property Cards HAZUS is a loss estimation model Any modeling software is going to have discrepancies

31 Future Studies Apply this methodology to terminal lakes in Minnesota with cabin development Propose lakeshore management and lakeshore development guidelines HAZUS study on the Sheyenne River, particularly at Valley City

32 Acknowledgments Source: City of Fargo My committee: Dr. Todhunter, Dr. Rundquist, Dr. Heggie Dr. Munski FEMA, Jesse Rozelle and Phil Moore Fellow Graduate students and Faculty My parents and grandparents

33 References Aakre, Dwight, and Randal Coon. Devils Lake Flood Damages NDSWC Devils Lake Flood Tour Memorandum June 23, 2010, North Dakota State University, Eissler, Craig. HAZUS Intermediate Flood. (accessed October 30, 2010). Scawthorn, Charles, Paul Flores, Neil Blais, Hope Seligson, Eric Tate, Setaphie Change, Edward Mifflin, Will Thomas, James Murphy, Christopher Jones, Michael Lawrence. "HAZUS-MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology. II. Damage Loss Assessment." Natural Hazards Review, 2006b: Schneider, Philip J., and Barbara A. Schauer. "HAZUS: Its Development and Its Future." Natural Hazards Review, 2006: North Dakota State Water Commission. "Flooding in the Devils Lake Basin." Bismarck, ND: North Dakota State Water Commission Newsletter, October 2001: 1-4. Scawthorn, Charles, Neil Blais, Hope Seligson, Eric Tate, Edward Mifflin, Will Thomas, James Murphy, and Christopher Jones. "HAZUS- MH Flood Loss Estimation Methodology. I: Overview and Flood Hazard Characterization." Natural Hazards Review, 2006a: Williams, Mary Ann Barnes. Origins of North Dakota Place Names. Bismarck: Bismarck Tribune, Williams, William David. "What Future for Saline Lakes?" Environment, 1996:

34 Any Questions?

'' ' ' '' ' ' ' ' Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay Drainage Area ST 62 ST 87 ST 87. Alignment ' Outfalls. Major Rivers Watersheds OC37 OC4 OC5 OC6 OC7 OC9

'' ' ' '' ' ' ' ' Sabine Pass to Galveston Bay Drainage Area ST 62 ST 87 ST 87. Alignment ' Outfalls. Major Rivers Watersheds OC37 OC4 OC5 OC6 OC7 OC9 10 ST 62 ST 87 OC3 OC9 OC11 OC5 OC6 OC4 Orange OC7 OC8 OC41 OC40 OC10 OC12 Outfalls Major Rivers Watersheds OC39 OC38 OC36 OC35 OC37 OC34 ST 87 OC33 OC18 OC32 OC19 OC25 OC20 OC31 OC24 OC21 OC30 OC26 OC23