OLED Display & OLED Lighting: Technology Trends & Market Forecast. Jennifer Colegrove, Ph.D. VP, Emerging Display Technologies, NPD DisplaySearch

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1 OLED Display & OLED Lighting: Technology Trends & Market Forecast Jennifer Colegrove, Ph.D. VP, Emerging Display Technologies, NPD DisplaySearch

2 2 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

3 OLED Products in the Market: AMOLED is growing, but most products are <5 3

4 4 AMOLED TV 55 Coming in 2012 At CES, both Samsung and LG demonstrated 55 AMOLED TV. Both announced commercialization in Source: Samsung Source: LG

OLED TV vs. 4K 2K LCD TV At IFA 2012 show in Berlin, main competition OLED TV vs 4KX2K LCD TV There are only two possible OLED TV suppliers as of today, but 4K 2K LCD suppliers are more numerous.

5 OLED TV vs. 4K 2K LCD TV At IFA 2012 show in Berlin, main competition OLED TV vs 4KX2K LCD TV There are only two possible OLED TV suppliers as of today, but 4K 2K LCD suppliers are more numerous. OLED TV announced price of $9,200. 4KX2K LCD TV announced price of $22,000. OLED 1920X1080 LCD 4KX2K Origin Brand Size Panel maker Brand Size Panel maker Korea Samsung 55" Samsung Display Samsung 70" Samsung Display LGE 55" LG Display LGE 84" LG Display Japan Sony 84" LG Display Sharp 60" Sharp Toshiba 55" AUO 84" LG Display China Hisense 50" CMI 65" CMI Haier 65" CMI Changhong 55" AUO THTF 50" CMI Source: DisplaySearch weekly TV supply chain executive briefing report LG 5

6 6 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

7 AM OLED and AM LCD Display Characteristics AM OLED AM LCD Thickness/weight Thinner, best is 0.05 mm; lighter Thicker, best is 0.8 mm; heavier Diagonal Size Limited to small/medium sizes; largest demo is 55" Can be larger; largest demo is ~100" Viewing Angle Up to 180 Narrower, depends on liquid crystal type Color Gamut >100% NTSC (top emission), ~70% NTSC (bottom); high at all gray levels ~70%, up to ~100% NTSC (LED backlight and new color filter); falls at low gray levels Color Reproduction Better; gamut independent of view angle Good; gamut changes with viewing angle Resolution Lower; 308 dpi (SM), 202 dpi (polymer) Higher; best is 498 dpi Response Time Faster, nanoseconds. No motion blur, good for 3D Contrast Ratio Higher Lower Sunlight Readability Better than transmissive LCD, worse than transflective LCD Operating Temperature Power Consumption Range is larger, can operate at low temps like 40 C. Lower at typical video content if ~30% of pixels are on Slower, milliseconds OK if transflective Range is smaller, lowest temp is 10 C. Higher at typical video content Lifetime Shorter, up to 30K hour, but improving Much longer, above 50K hour Manufacturing Investment Production Cost Lower, but lack of standards keeps the investment only slightly lower Expensive; low yield, potential to be low cost Higher Cheaper than AMOLED Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report 7

Obstacles and Solutions for Large OLED Obstacles Scale

Potential Solutions a-si TFT, oxide TFT, etc.

) Nozzle printing, LITI, white with color filter, blue

8 Obstacles and Solutions for Large OLED Obstacles Scale to larger back plane Color patterning Lifetime Cost Potential Solutions a-si TFT, oxide TFT, etc. (Tile is another choice, but expensive.) Nozzle printing, LITI, white with color filter, blue with color change methods Material improvement, hermetic sealing. Red and green is more than good enough. Blue still needs some work. Improve yield of TFT backplane, material utilization rate, White with color filter, TAC time Competing with LCD Flexible/curve form factor, transparent TV? Sony SMD LGD 8

9 9 55 OLED TV cost currently 55 OLED TV cost is 8 or 10 times higher than 55 LCD TV. Solutions: Improve yield of TFT backplane, material utilization rate, White with color filter, TAC time 55 Module Costs Assuming Q3 12 Material Costs and Yield Estimates X 7.8 X 10 Source: DisplaySearch AMOLED Process Roadmap Report

10 Comparison of LTPS, a-si, and Oxide TFT Nearly all AMOLEDs on the market are currently based on LTPS TFT. Several companies are developing AMOLEDs using oxide or a- Si TFT backplanes, and are likely to start production in Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report 10

11 Comparison of Patterned RGB and White OLED with CF LG s 55 AMOLED TV used white OLED with CF method. Samsung s 55 AMOLED TV used RGB. Patterned RGB (Samsung) White with RGBW Color Filter (LG) Advantages High efficiency Good color No color filter cost No mask Aperture ratio unaffected Fewer OLED process steps Reduced differential aging Less color shift Lower voltage No circular polarizer Higher material utilization Scalable to large size Disadvantages Yield Cost Material utilization efficiency Scalability is limited Aperture ratio issues Differential aging Requires circular polarizer Loss of efficiency due to CF absorption Color gamut a function of white spectrum Cost of color filter Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report 11

12 12 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

Flexible OLED Display Flexible OLED display has been demoed for several years; it is easier than

LG targets 2013. Sharp demonstrated flexible AMOLED at SID 2012.

13 Flexible OLED Display Flexible OLED display has been demoed for several years; it is easier than flexible LCD, due to solid state. Samsung will commercialize flexible displays in LG targets Sharp demonstrated flexible AMOLED at SID Challenges: Substrates and encapsulation layer moisture and O 2 barrier: plastic, metal foil, ultrathin glass (<0.1 mm) Electrode material, TFT material, manufacturing process (bonding/de-bonding, rollto-roll) Samsung Mobile Display LG Display and UDC Sharp 2012 Source: DisplaySearch The Emitter: Emerging Display Technologies monthly report 13

14 Flexible OLED Display Market Drivers iphone 5 reviews indicated no wow factor. The next wow factor will come from flexible displays. Near term will be fixed/curved, thin, and light weight, but not dynamic bendable. > x Tablet PC (Samsung, LG ) Larger size show more benefit NB/Hybrid PC ( ) 1-4.x Mobile Phone Display (Samsung, LG ) Source: DisplaySearch The Emitter: Emerging Display Technologies monthly report 14

15 15 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

16 Shipments (Millions) Looking Back PMOLED started shipments in 1999; AMOLED started at the end of Kodak DSC easyshare was the first AMOLED in market PMOLED AMOLED Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report 16

17 OLED Displays Shipment Share Samsung Mobile Display was #1 with 70.7% share in Q1 12. Visionox (China) became #2 with steady growth. WiseChip (Taiwan) is #3. Japanese suppliers are losing market share. Visionox 7.5% WiseChip 6.2% Pioneer 4.3% TDK 4.0% RiTdisplay 3.7% LG Display 1.4% Sony 0.9% Irico 0.5% Nippon Seiki 0.5% Samsung Mobile 70.7% Truly 0.3% DisplaySearch emagin 0.1% Source: DisplaySearch Q2 12 Quarterly OLED Shipment and Forecast Report 17

Samsung and LG are building their Gen 8 AMOLED lines.

18 AMOLED Fab Activity More than 10 new AMOLED fabs will be installed/updated in the next three years. Samsung Display Corp s Gen 5.5 AMOLED fab is established. Samsung and LG are building their Gen 8 AMOLED lines. Order Equipment Equipment Install Mass Production Source: DisplaySearch Q2 12 Quarterly FPD Supply/Demand and Capital Spending Report 18

19 19 AMOLED Enters Medium/Large Size Currently most AMOLED shipments are <5. Small amounts are shipped for a large number of sizes > >50 OLED TV , 15 OLED TV DPF 7, 15, 17, 25 Professional/broadcast Mobile PC Portable game

20 Long-Term Annual Revenue Forecast (through 2019) OLED display revenues will grow to about $44B in 2019, up from $4B in 2011, with CAGR ~40%. Mobile phone main display saw strong growth recently and will continue to lead in revenue for the next several years. Source: DisplaySearch Q2 12 Quarterly OLED Shipment and Forecast Report 20

21 21 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

22 OLED Lighting Market Drivers Area/surface lighting:

and color matching Low drive voltage for better power, smaller

Wide operation temperatures for use in extreme environments No

saving Thin, light weight OLED lighting can be transparent

22 22 OLED Lighting Market Drivers Area/surface lighting: flexible or rigid form factor Tunable color for decorative use and color matching Low drive voltage for better power, smaller power supply Fast switch on. Wide operation temperatures for use in extreme environments No noise; Environmentally friendly High efficiency for energy saving Thin, light weight OLED lighting can be transparent like a window or reflective like mirrors. Source: Ingo Maurer Source: OSRAM Source: GE Source: Konica Minolta

23 OLED Lighting Faces Different Challenges from Displays Feature/Specification Display Lighting Luminance (cd/m²) Color Criteria Full color balanced white, or RGB for decorative lighting Color Specification >100% of NTSC CRI >80 Typical Panel diagonal (cm) Pixels yes no pixel, but small tiles Lifetime (K hours) T50 is about 5-60 T70 need Efficacy (lm/w) Backplane active matrix or passive matrix or segment simple Process typically batch roll-to-roll, or batch Cost (US$/m²) ~$ target $ Issues backplane scale to large size, backplane cost, resolution/fine patterning uniformity and large area, high CRI, material cost, high luminance, infrastructure Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report 23

24 24 OLED Lighting: the Opportunity is Evolving Hundreds of millions of dollars have been invested in OLED lighting in the EU, US, Japan, and Korea. Europe is currently the leading participant in the OLED lighting in terms of organization/projects numbers, government funding, and participating companies. Sample/small volume product Announced for mass production OSRAM Philips Lumiotec GE Konica Minolta Others (Visionox, Verbatim, Panasonic, Kaneka, Rohm, NEC Lighting, Fraunhofer IPMS, Blackbody, Acuity, UDC & Moser Baer & DOE, etc.) Source: DisplaySearch OLED Technology Report

25 OLED Lighting Market Forecast The OLED lighting market started to pick up around The OLED lighting market will reach $1.5B by 2015 and reach $6.3B by OLED Lighting Revenue ($M) Source: DisplaySearch OLED Lighting in 2009 and Beyond: The Bright Future 25

26 Source: DisplaySearch OLED Lighting in 2009 and Beyond: The Bright Future DisplaySearch Q2 12 Quarterly OLED Shipment and Forecast Report 26 Big Picture: OLED Display and OLED Lighting OLED display revenue will continue to be bigger than OLED lighting in the forecast period.

27 27 Outline OLED Display Technology and Market Forecast» New OLED Display Products» Technologies Challenges and New Progress» Flexible OLED Displays and Market Driver Forecast» OLED Display Shipments» OLED Display Forecast to 2019 OLED Lighting Market and Forecast Summary and Business Strategy Recommendation

28 28 Summary and Business Strategy Recommendations OLED display revenue reached $4B in 2011; DisplaySearch forecast that revenue will surpass $40B by Breakthroughs in oxide TFT and a-si TFT backplanes and in color patterning are needed for AMOLED to move to larger sizes. OLED works in niche applications where LCD cannot compete:» Flexible displays» Transparent displays» Dual view (or even 3 or 4 views)» Lighting OLED lighting will reach $6.3B by 2018.» OLED lighting costs need to be reduced and efficiency needs to be improved for mass adoption. Add touch screens

29 Jennifer Colegrove, PhD VP, Emerging Display Technologies

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