General!Election!2015! CONSTITUENCY!POLLING!REPORT!
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1 GeneralElection2015 CONSTITUENCYPOLLINGREPORT Conservative LiberalDemocratbattleground June2014 LordAshcroftKCMGPC
2 BATTLEGROUND WITH LIB DEMS Con/LD Lead Con/LD Con/LD UKIP % Implied result Con/LD Lead Swing Swing UKIP % Watford 5% 1.0% 16% CON HOLD Solihull 9% 4.5% 16% Camborne & Redruth 15% 7.0% 26% CON HOLD Mid Dorset & N. Poole 7% 3.5% 17% Oxford W. & Abingdon 11% 5.5% 11% CON HOLD Wells 5% 3.0% 16% Truro & Falmouth 17% 8.0% 22% CON HOLD St Austell & Newquay 8% 5.5% 25% Newton Abbot 19% 9.0% 20% CON HOLD Somerton & Frome 12% 7.5% 14% Harrogate & K borough 17% 7.5% 16% CON HOLD Sutton & Cheam 13% 4.5% 14% St Ives 1% 2.5% 21% Chippenham 9% 7.0% 19% Cheadle 3% 1.5% 15% North Cornwall Eastleigh 0% 12% 3.0% 2.0% 24% 22% Implied result LIB HOLD LIB HOLD TIE LIB HOLD SWING ACROSS BATTLEGROUND 5% 3.5% 18% 41% 33% 2010 NOW 14% 9% 43% 28% CHART ONE 4% 18% 13% 33% 20% 33% Satisfied with DC as PM Dissatisfied with DC but prefer as PM to EM Prefer EM as PM DK/Ref 18% 13% CHART TWO 20% 32% 16% Con maj Con-LD coalition Lab maj Lab-LD coailtion Cons Lab LD UKIP AGGREGATE VOTING INTENTION CHOICE OF PRIME MINISTER PREFERRED ELECTION OUTCOME 66% 87% 58% 74% 57% CHART THREE -30% -11% -39% -24% -39% Optimistic Pessimistic 44% 53% 48% CHART FOUR 55% 48% 50% 46% % hearing from 30% CHART FIVE All Cons Lab LD UKIP PERSONAL ECONOMIC OPTIMISM Cons Lab LD UKIP PARTIES RULED OUT Cons Lab LD UKIP LOCAL CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY
3 June2014 Methodology 17,005adultswereinterviewedbytelephonebetween11Mayand14June2014inthefollowingconstituencies: Camborne&Redruth(1,000:30May 6June) Harrogate&Knaresborough(1,000:5 14June) Cheadle(1,003:26May 1June) Chippenham(1,000:26May 1June) NewtonAbbot(1,000:5 12June) OxfordWest&Abingdon(1,000:30May 5June) Truro&Falmouth(1,000:4 13June) Eastleigh(1,000:29May 6June) MidDorset&NorthPoole(1,000:12 18May) NorthCornwall(1,001:26May 1June) Watford(1,001:29May 6June) Solihull(1,000:12 18May) Somerton&Frome(1,000:19 25May) StAustell&Newquay(1,000:19 25May) StIves(1,000:26May 1June) Sutton&Cheam(1,000:29May 3June) Wells(1,000:19 25May) Foreachconstituency,resultswereweightedtoberepresentativeofalladultslivingintheconstituency.Resultsareweightedbyrecalledpastvoteatthe lastgeneralelectionandstatedlikelihoodtoturnoutatthenext.aproportionofthosewhodon'tknoworrefusetosayhowtheywillvoteareretallocated tothepartytheyvotedforatthe2010generalelection.fulldatatablesareavailableatwww.lordashcroftpolls.com. Six ConservativeTheld and ten Liberal DemocratTheld seats were selected in order of marginality. In addition, Eastleigh was selected as an additional constituencyontheconservativetlibdembattlegroundinwhichukipareexpectedtohaveastrongpresence.
4 June2014 Votingintention 1. Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor?WoulditbeConservative,Labour,LiberalDemocrat,UKIP,PlaidCymru[Cardiff(North(only]oranother party?if# another#party :#Wouldthatbe,theGreenParty,theBritishNationalParty(BNP),orsomeotherparty ordoyounotknowhowyouwouldvote? 2. AndthinkingspecificallyaboutyourownparliamentaryconstituencyatthenextgeneralelectionandthecandidateswhoarelikelytostandforelectiontoWestminsterthere,which party'scandidatedoyouthinkyouwillvoteforinyourownconstituency?#[prompts#as#at#q1] %(changesince2010) Standardvotingintention(Q1) Constituencyvotingintention(Q2) Swing Con LibDem Lab UKIP Other Con LibDem Lab UKIP Other (onlocalvi) Camborne&Redruth (T9) 14(T23) 24(T8) 26(+21) 7(+3) 7%LD Con Conhold Harrogate&Knaresborough (T5) 24(T20) 11(+5) 16(+14) 8(+6) 7.5%LD Con Conhold NewtonAbbot (T4) 20(T22) 13(+6) 20(+14) 8(+6) 9%LD Con Conhold OxfordWest&Abingdon (T6) 25(T17) 18(+7) 11(+8) 9(+7) 5.5%LD Con Conhold Truro&Falmouth (T9) 16(T25) 18(+8) 22(+18) 11(+7) 8%LD Con Conhold Watford (T6) 24(T8) 25(T2) 16(+14) 6(T2) 1%LD Con Conhold Cheadle (T12) 32(T15) 21(+12) 15(+12) 3(+3) 1.5%LD Con LDhold Chippenham (T6) 26(T20) 12(T5) 19(+16) 8(+5) 7.0%LD Con Congain Eastleigh* (T12/72) 39(T8/+7) 10(T/7) 22(+18/76) 2(+1/73) 2.0%Con LD 2.5%#Con# #LD## MidDorset&NorthPoole (T6) 32(T13) 8(+2) 17(+12) 4(+4) 3.5%LD Con Congain NorthCornwall (T11) 31(T17) 8(+4) 24(+19) 6(+5) 3%LD Con Tie Solihull (T6) 28(T15) 12(T3) 16(+14) 7(+3) 4.5%LD Con Congain Somerton&Frome (T4) 29(T19) 9(+5) 14(+11) 6(+6) 7.5%LD Con Congain StAustell&Newquay (T8) 24(T19) 10(+3) 25(+21) 9(+3) 5.5%LD Con Congain StIves (T9) 29(T14) 11(+3) 21(+15) 9(+4) 2.5%LD Con Congain Sutton&Cheam (T13) 42(T4) 11(+4) 14(+12) 3(T) 4.5%Con LD LDhold Wells (T9) 29(T15) 11(+3) 16(+13) 9(+6) 3%LD Con Congain *ComparisonswithEastleighbyTelection(2013)recordedinitalics Implied result LDhold
5 June2014 Aggregatebattlegroundresults Data#weighted#to#be#representative#of#the#battleground#as#a#whole.# Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor? Standardvotingintention Constituencyvotingintention Swing Con LibDem Lab UKIP Other Con LibDem Lab UKIP Other (onlocalvi) %LD Con Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthecountry asawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. Satisfied withdc ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC
6 June2014 Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsorukip? Heardfrom Conservatives Heardfrom LibDems Heardfrom Labour Heard fromukip Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats,a coalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters C CbLD LbLD L Don't know C CbLD LbLD L Don t know C CbLD LbLD L Don t know C CbLD LbLD L Don't know C CbLD LbLD L Don t know
7 June2014 Partiesruledout? 3. Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? % Ruleout Labour Convoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Camborne&Redruth Harrogate&Knaresborough NewtonAbbot OxfordWest&Abingdon Truro&Falmouth Watford Cheadle Chippenham Eastleigh MidDorset&NorthPoole NorthCornwall Solihull Somerton&Frome StAustell&Newquay StIves Sutton&Cheam Wells
8 June2014 Economicoptimism 4. ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthe countryasawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? Forthecountryasawhole Formeandmyfamily Well Badly Well Badly Camborne&Redruth Harrogate&Knaresborough NewtonAbbot OxfordWest&Abingdon Truro&Falmouth Watford Cheadle Chippenham Eastleigh MidDorset&NorthPoole NorthCornwall Solihull Somerton&Frome StAustell&Newquay StIves Sutton&Cheam Wells
9 June2014 ChoiceofPrimeMinister 5.Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. SatisfiedwithCameron Dissatisfied,butpreferCamerontoMiliband DissatisfiedandpreferMiliband Refused/Don tknow Camborne&Redruth Harrogate&Knaresborough NewtonAbbot OxfordWest&Abingdon Truro&Falmouth Watford Cheadle Chippenham Eastleigh MidDorset&NorthPoole NorthCornwall Solihull Somerton&Frome StAustell&Newquay StIves Sutton&Cheam Wells
10 June2014 Localcampaignactivity 6. Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsorukip? % FromCons FromLibDems FromLabour FromUKIP Fromnone Camborne&Redruth Harrogate&Knaresborough NewtonAbbot OxfordWest&Abingdon Truro&Falmouth Watford Cheadle Chippenham Eastleigh MidDorset&NorthPoole NorthCornwall Solihull Somerton&Frome StAustell&Newquay StIves Sutton&Cheam Wells
11 June2014 Preferredelectionresult 7. Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats, acoalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? % Conservative government ConbLibDem coalition LabbLibDem coalition Labour government Don tknow Camborne&Redruth Harrogate&Knaresborough NewtonAbbot OxfordWest&Abingdon Truro&Falmouth Watford Cheadle Chippenham Eastleigh MidDorset&NorthPoole NorthCornwall Solihull Somerton&Frome StAustell&Newquay StIves Sutton&Cheam Wells
12 June2014 Appendix:resultsat2010generalelection %# Con LibDem Labour UKIP Others Majority Swingneeded Camborne&Redruth %Con LD Harrogate&Knaresborough %Con LD NewtonAbbot %Con LD OxfordWest&Abingdon %Con LD Truro&Falmouth %Con LD Watford %Con LD Cheadle T %LD Con Chippenham %LD Con Eastleigh* 39(25)# 47(32)# 10(10)# 4(28)# 1(5)# 7.2overCon 4.3#over#UKIP# 3.6%LD Con 2.15%#LD# #UKIP## MidDorset&NorthPoole T %LD Con NorthCornwall %LD Con Solihull %LD Con Somerton&Frome %LD Con StAustell&Newquay %LD Con StIves %LD Con Sutton&Cheam %LD Con Wells %LD Con *EastleighbyTelectionresults(2013)recordedinitalics
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