General!Election!2015! CONSTITUENCY!POLLING!REPORT! Conservative!!Labour!battleground!
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1 GeneralElection2015 CONSTITUENCYPOLLINGREPORT Conservative Labourbattleground May2014 LordAshcroftKCMGPC
2 CONSERVATIVE-LABOUR BATTLEGROUND - MAY 2014 Con/Lab Con/Lab Con/Lab Con/Lab UKIP % Implied result Lead Swing Lead Swing UKIP % Amber Valley 14% 8.0% 16% LAB GAIN Bolton West 13% 6.0% 17% Broxtowe 14% 7.5% 13% LAB GAIN Birmingham Edgbaston 11% 4.0% 13% Cardiff North 7% 4.0% 8% LAB GAIN Derby North 21% 10.0% 17% Hendon 8% 4.0% 11% LAB GAIN Dudley North 16% 7.0% 27% Great Yarmouth 2% 6.0% 28% LAB GAIN Halifax 17% 7.0% 18% Lancaster & Fleetwood 14% 7.5% 12% LAB GAIN Hampstead & Kilburn 11% 5.5% 3% Morecambe & Lunesdale 2% 2.0% 13% LAB GAIN Great Grimsby 17% 7.5% 26% North Warwickshire 8% 4.0% 15% LAB GAIN Morley & Outwood 17% 7.0% 20% Thanet South -1% 8.0% 27% CON HOLD Southampton Itchen 8% 3.5% 20% Thurrock Sherwood Stockton South 10% 12% 7% 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 29% LAB GAIN 19% LAB GAIN 12% LAB GAIN Telford Walsall North Wirral South 17% 16% 16% 7.0% 6.5% 7.5% 24% 30% 15% Waveney 11% 6.0% 18% LAB GAIN Wolverhampton South West 13% 7.5% 14% LAB GAIN ACROSS BATTLEGROUND 12% 6.5% 18% Implied result 41% 38% 37% 29% 2010 NOW 17% CHART ONE 8% 18% 4% Cons Lab LD UKIP AGGREGATE VOTING INTENTION RT TWO 29% 14% Satisfied with DC as PM 29% Dissatisfied with DC but prefer as PM to EM Prefer EM as PM 28% DK/Ref CHOICE OF PRIME MINISTER 59% 84% 55% 70% 51% CHART THREE -37% -14% -42% -27% -46% Optimistic Pessimistic 49% RT FOUR 38% 56% 52% CHART FIVE 24% 25% 11% % hearing from 18% All Cons Lab LD UKIP PERSONAL ECONOMIC OPTIMISM Cons Lab LD UKIP PARTIES RULED OUT Cons Lab LD UKIP LOCAL CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY
3 May2014 Methodology 26,025adultswereinterviewedbytelephonebetween31Marchand18May2014inthefollowingconstituencies: AmberValley(1,000:14 20April) Broxtowe(1,000:8 13April) BoltonWest(1,001:21 27April) BirminghamEdgbaston(1,000:12 18May) CardiffNorth(1,000:31March 6April) Hendon(1,000:31March 6April) GreatYarmouth(1,001:21 27April) Lancaster&Fleetwood(1,002:8 13April) Morecambe&Lunesdale(1,000:14 20April) NorthWarwickshire(1,001:31March 6April) ThanetSouth(1,000:21 27April) Thurrock(1,000:31March 6April) Sherwood(1,000:7 13April) StocktonSouth(1,001:7 13April) DerbyNorth(1,000:28April 4May) DudleyNorth(1,000:28April 4May) Halifax(1,000:12 18May) Hampstead&Kilburn(1,003:21 27April) GreatGrimsby(1,001:5 11May) Morley&Outwood(1,003:5 11May) SouthamptonItchen(1,002:28April 4May) Telford(1,006:5 11May) WalsallNorth(1,002:5 11May) WirralSouth(1,001:28April 4May) Waveney(1,001:14 20April) WolverhamptonSouthWest(1,000:14 20April) Foreachconstituency,resultswereweightedtoberepresentativeofalladultslivingintheconstituency.Resultsareweightedbyrecalledpastvoteatthe lastgeneralelectionandstatedlikelihoodtoturnoutatthenext.aproportionofthosewhodon'tknoworrefusetosayhowtheywillvotearererallocated tothepartytheyvotedforatthe2010generalelection.fulldatatablesareavailableatwww.lordashcroftpolls.com. 12 ConservativeRheld and 12 LabourRheld seats were selected in order of marginality. In addition, Great Yarmouth and Thanet South were selected as examplesofconservativerlabourmarginalsinwhichukipareexpectedtohaveastrongpresence.
4 May2014 Votingintention 1. Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor?WoulditbeConservative,Labour,LiberalDemocrat,UKIP,PlaidCymru[Cardiff(North(only]oranother party?if# another#party :#Wouldthatbe,theGreenParty,theBritishNationalParty(BNP),orsomeotherparty ordoyounotknowhowyouwouldvote? 2. Andthinkingspecificallyaboutyourownconstituencyandthecandidateswhoarelikelytostandthere,whichparty'scandidatedoyouthinkyouwillvoteforinyourown constituencyatthenextgeneralelection?[prompts#as#at#q1] %(changesince2010) Standardvotingintention(Q1) Constituencyvotingintention(Q2) Swing Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other (onlocalvi) AmberValley (R9) 44(+7) 6(R8) 16(+14) 4(R4) 8%Con Lab Labgain Broxtowe (R9) 44(+6) 10(R7) 13(+11) 3(R1) 7.5%Con Lab Labgain CardiffNorth [PC7] 33(R5) 40(+3) 10(R8) 8(+6) 9[PC7](+4) 4%Con Lab Labgain Hendon (R6) 44(+2) 7(R5) 11(+9) 3(+2) 4%Con Lab Labgain GreatYarmouth (R11) 34(+1) 5(R9) 28(+13) 1(R4) 6%Con Lab Labgain Lancaster&Fleetwood (R7) 43(+8) 6(R13) 12(+10) 10(R3) 7.5%Con Lab Labgain Morecambe&Lunesdale (R5) 39(R1) 7(R6) 13(+9) 4(+3) 2%Con Lab Labgain NorthWarwickshire (R5) 43(+3) 3(R8) 15(+8) 4(R1) 4%Con Lab Labgain ThanetSouth (R16) 31(R) 7(R8) 27(+21) 3(+3) 8%Con Lab Conhold Thurrock (R10) 37(R) 4(R7) 29(+22) 3(R6) 5%Con Lab Labgain Sherwood (R8) 43(+4) 5(R10) 19(+16) 2(R2) 6%Con Lab Labgain StocktonSouth (R3) 43(+5) 5(R10) 12(+9) 3(R2) 4%Con Lab Labgain Waveney (R10) 41(+2) 6(R7) 18(+13) 5(R2) 6%Con Lab Labgain WolverhamptonSouthWest (R8) 46(+7) 5(R11) 14(+10) 2(+1) 7.5%Con Lab Labgain BoltonWest (R10) 41(+2) 10(R7) 17(+13) 3(+1) 6%Con Lab Labhold BirminghamEdgbaston (R5) 44(+3) 5(R10) 13(+11) 5(R) 4%Con Lab Labhold DerbyNorth (R9) 44(+11) 12(R16) 17(+15) 4(R1) 10%Con Lab Labhold DudleyNorth (R13) 40(+1) 4(R7) 27(+18) 5(R) 7%ConRLab Labhold Halifax (R8) 43(+6) 8(R11) 18(+16) 5(R3) 7%Con Lab Labhold Hampstead&Kilburn (R3) 41(+8) 19(R12) 3(+2) 6(+3) 5.5%Con Lab Labhold GreatGrimsby (R10) 38(+5) 10(R12) 26(+20) 5(R3) 7.5%Con Lab Labhold Morley&Outwood (R11) 41(+3) 5(R12) 20(+17) 10(+3) 7%Con Lab Labhold SouthamptonItchen (R8) 36(R1) 12(R9) 20(+16) 4(+2) 3.5%Con Lab Labhold Telford (R10) 43(+4) 4(R12) 24(+18) 3(R1) 7%ConRLab Labhold WalsallNorth (R13) 37(R) 8(R5) 30(+25) 4(R1) 6.5%Con Lab Labhold Implied result WirralSouth (R13) 43(+2) 12(R5) 15(+12) 4(+1) 7.5%Con Lab Labhold
5 May2014 Aggregatebattlegroundresults Data#weighted#to#be#representative#of#the#battleground#as#a#whole.# Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor? Standardvotingintention Constituencyvotingintention Swing Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other Con Lab LibDem UKIP Other (onlocalvi) %Con Lab Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthecountry asawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. Satisfied withdc ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC
6 May2014 Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsorukip? Heardfrom Conservatives Heardfrom Labour Heardfrom LibDems Heard fromukip Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats,a coalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters C C_LD L_LD L Don't know C C_LD L_LD L Don t know C C_LD L_LD L Don t know C C_LD L_LD L Don't know C C_LD L_LD L Don t know
7 May2014 Partiesruledout? 3. Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? % Ruleout Labour Convoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters UKIPvoters Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout UKIP AmberValley Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout UKIP Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Broxtowe CardiffNorth Hendon GreatYarmouth Lancaster&Fleetwood Morecambe&Lunesdale NorthWarwickshire ThanetSouth Thurrock Sherwood StocktonSouth Waveney WolverhamptonSouthWest BoltonWest BirminghamEdgbaston DerbyNorth DudleyNorth Halifax Hampstead&Kilburn GreatGrimsby Morley&Outwood SouthamptonItchen Telford WalsallNorth WirralSouth Ruleout LibDems
8 May2014 Economicoptimism 4. ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthe countryasawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? Forthecountryasawhole Formeandmyfamily Well Badly Well Badly AmberValley Broxtowe CardiffNorth Hendon GreatYarmouth Lancaster&Fleetwood Morecambe&Lunesdale NorthWarwickshire ThanetSouth Thurrock Sherwood StocktonSouth Waveney WolverhamptonSouthWest BoltonWest BirminghamEdgbaston DerbyNorth DudleyNorth Halifax Hampstead&Kilburn GreatGrimsby Morley&Outwood SouthamptonItchen Telford WalsallNorth WirralSouth
9 May2014 ChoiceofPrimeMinister 5.Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. SatisfiedwithCameron Dissatisfied,butpreferCamerontoMiliband DissatisfiedandpreferMiliband Refused/Don tknow AmberValley Broxtowe CardiffNorth Hendon GreatYarmouth Lancaster&Fleetwood Morecambe&Lunesdale NorthWarwickshire ThanetSouth Thurrock Sherwood StocktonSouth Waveney WolverhamptonSouthWest BoltonWest BirminghamEdgbaston DerbyNorth DudleyNorth Halifax Hampstead&Kilburn GreatGrimsby Morley&Outwood SouthamptonItchen Telford WalsallNorth WirralSouth
10 May2014 Localcampaignactivity 6. Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsorukip? % FromCons FromLabour FromLibDems FromUKIP Fromnone AmberValley Broxtowe CardiffNorth Hendon GreatYarmouth Lancaster&Fleetwood Morecambe&Lunesdale NorthWarwickshire ThanetSouth Thurrock Sherwood StocktonSouth Waveney WolverhamptonSouthWest BoltonWest BirminghamEdgbaston DerbyNorth DudleyNorth Halifax Hampstead&Kilburn GreatGrimsby Morley&Outwood SouthamptonItchen Telford WalsallNorth WirralSouth
11 May2014 Preferredelectionresult 7. Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats, acoalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? % Conservative government Con_LibDem coalition Lab_LibDem coalition Labour government Don tknow AmberValley Broxtowe CardiffNorth Hendon GreatYarmouth Lancaster&Fleetwood Morecambe&Lunesdale NorthWarwickshire ThanetSouth Thurrock Sherwood StocktonSouth Waveney WolverhamptonSouthWest BoltonWest BirminghamEdgbaston DerbyNorth DudleyNorth Halifax Hampstead&Kilburn GreatGrimsby Morley&Outwood SouthamptonItchen Telford WalsallNorth WirralSouth
12 May2014 Appendix:resultsat2010generalelection Con Lab LibDem UKIP Others Majority Swingneeded AmberValley 17446(38.6%) 17210(37.4%) 6636(14.4%) 906(2.0%) 3460(7.6%) 536(1.2%) 0.6%Con Lab Broxtowe 20585(39.0%) 20196(38.3%) 8907(16.9%) 1194(2.3%) 1845(3.5%) 389(0.7%) 0.35%Con Lab CardiffNorth 17860(37.5%) 17666(37.1%) 8724(18.3%) 1130(2.4%) 2250(4.7%) 194(0.4%) 0.2%Con Lab Hendon 19635(42.3%) 19529(42.1%) 5734(12.4%) 958(2.1%) 518(1.1%) 106(0.2%) 0.1%Con Lab GreatYarmouth 18571(43.1%) 14295(33.2%) 6188(14.4%) 2066(4.8%) 1937(4.5%) 4276(9.9%) 4.95%Con Lab Lancaster&Fleetwood 15404(36.1%) 15071(35.3%) 8167(19.1%) 1020(2.4%) 3039(7.1%) 333(0.8%) 0.4%Con Lab Morecambe&Lunesdale 18035(41.5%) 17169(39.5%) 5791(13.3%) 1843(4.2%) 598(1.4%) 866(2.0%) 1.0%Con Lab NorthWarwickshire 18993(40.2%) 18939(40.1%) 5481(11.6%) 1335(2.8%) 2517(5.4%) 54(0.1%) 0.05%Con Lab ThanetSouth 22043(48%) 14426(31.4%) 6935(15.1%) 2529(5.5%) 7617(16.6%) 8.3%Con Lab Thurrock 16869(36.8%) 16777(36.6%) 4901(10.7%) 3390(7.4%) 3884(8.5%) 92(0.2%) 0.1%Con Lab Sherwood 19211(39.2%) 18997(38.8%) 7283(14.9%) 1490(3.0%) 1973(4.0%) 214(0.4%) 0.2%Con Lab StocktonSouth 19577(38.9%) 19245(38.3%) 7600(15.1%) 1471(2.9%) 2391(4.8%) 332(0.7%) 0.35%Con Lab Waveney 20571(40.2%) 19802(38.7%) 6811(13.3%) 2684(5.2%) 1273(2.5%) 769(1.5%) 0.75%Con Lab WolverhamptonSouthWest 16344(40.7%) 15653(39.0%) 6430(16.0%) 1487(3.7%) 246(0.6%) 691(1.7%) 0.85%Con Lab BoltonWest 18235(38.3%) 18327(38.5%) 8177(17.2%) 1901(4.0%) 936(1.9%) 92(0.2%) 0.1%Lab Con BirminghamEdgbaston 15620(37.6%) 16894(40.6%) 6387(15.4%) 732(1.8%) 1938(4.7%) 1274(3.1%) 1.55%Lab Con DerbyNorth 14283(31.7%) 14896(33%) 12638(28%) 829(1.8%) 2434(5.4%) 613(1.4%) 0.7%Lab Con DudleyNorth 14274(37%) 14923(38.7%) 4066(10.5%) 3267(8.5%) 2072(5.3%) 649(1.7%) 0.85%Lab Con Halifax 14806(34.0%) 16278(37.4%) 8335(19.1%) 654(1.5%) 3482(8.0%) 1472(3.4%) 1.7%Lab Con Hampstead&Kilburn 17290(32.7%) 17332(32.8%) 16491(31.2%) 408(0.8%) 1301(2.4%) 42(0.1%) 0.05%Lab Con GreatGrimsby 10063(30.5%) 10777(32.7%) 7388(22.4%) 2043(6.2%) 2683(8.1%) 714(2.2%) 1.1%Lab Con Morley&Outwood 17264(35.3%) 18365(37.6%) 8186(16.8%) 1506(3.1%) 3535(7.2%) 1101(2.3%) 1.15%Lab Con SouthamptonItchen 16134(36.3%) 16326(36.8%) 9256(20.8%) 1928(4.3%) 768(1.8%) 192(0.4%) 0.2%Lab Con Telford 14996(36.3%) 15974(38.7%) 6399(15.5%) 2428(5.9%) 1513(3.7%) 978(2.4%) 1.2%Lab Con WalsallNorth 12395(34.3%) 13385(37.0%) 4754(13.1%) 1737(4.8%) 3916(10.8%) 990(2.7%) 1.35%Lab Con WirralSouth 15745(39.5%) 16276(40.8%) 6611(16.6%) 1274(3.2%) 531(1.3%) 6.5%Lab Con
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