General!Election!2015! CONSTITUENCY!POLLING!REPORT!
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1 GeneralElection2015 CONSTITUENCYPOLLINGREPORT August2014 LordAshcroftKCMGPC
2 EXTENDED CON-HELD SEATS: CON-LAB BATTLEGROUND JULY 2014 Implied result 11/07-30/07/14 Lead Swing Carlisle Stroud Weaver Vale Lincoln Plymouth Sutton Dewsbury Warrington South Bedford 11% 11% 9% 4% 13% 10% 8% 10% 6.5% 6.5% 6.0% 3.5% 7.5% 6.5% 5.5% 6.5% 18% 11% 18% 17% 21% 18% 15% 15% BATTLEGROUND SWING 10% 6.5% 17% 38% 40% 35% 30% 2010 CHART ONE NOW 20% 8% Cons Lab LD AGGREGATE VOTING INTENTION CHART TWO 3% 17% 29% 29% 31% 12% CHOICE OF PRIME MINISTER Satisfied with DC as PM Dissatisfied with DC but prefer as PM to EM Prefer EM as PM DK/Ref 87% 61% -12% CHART -36% THREE Pessimistic 57% 74% -41% -25% Optimistic 50% 50% -48% CHART FOUR 42% 63% 60% CHART FIVE 16% 16% % hearing from 8% 11% All Cons Lab LD PERSONAL ECONOMIC OPTIMISM Cons Lab LD PARTIES RULED OUT Cons Lab LD LOCAL CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY
3 LABOUR-HELD SEATS: CON-LAB BATTLEGROUND AUGUST 2014 Implied result 21/04-18/05/14 23/07-03/08/14 Lead Swing Lead Swing Hampstead & Kilburn Bolton West Southampton Itchen Birmingham Edgbaston 11% 13% 8% 11% 5.5% 3% 17% 8.5% 2% 6.0% 17% 13% 6.0% 21% 3.5% 20% 0% 0.5% 19% 4.0% 13% 19% 8.0% 12% LAB HOLD LAB HOLD TIE LAB HOLD BATTLEGROUND SWING 11% 4.5% 13% 13% 5.5% 13% 41% 43% 36% 38% 30% 30% 2010 WAVE 1 WAVE 2 CHART ONE 21% 12% 13% 13% 9% 3% Cons Lab LD AGGREGATE VOTING INTENTION Wave 2 CHART TWO Wave 1 30% 28% 27% 33% 27% 31% CHOICE OF PRIME MINISTER 10% 15% Satisfied with DC as PM Dissatisfied with DC but prefer as PM to EM Prefer EM as PM DK/Ref Pessimistic Optimistic 49% 52% 63% 63% 85% 86% 60% 59% 80% 73% 50% 54% CHART THREE -33% -34% -13% -12% -38% -39% -19% -27% -47% -45% CHART FOUR 37% 37% 55% 61% 59% 65% CHART FIVE 36% 21% 37% % hearing from 21% 19% 21% 10% 8% All All Cons Cons Lab Lab LD PERSONAL ECONOMIC OPTIMISM LD Cons Cons Lab Lab LD PARTIES RULED OUT LD Cons Cons Lab Lab LD LOCAL CAMPAIGN ACTIVITY LD
4 August2014 Methodology 12,005adultswereinterviewedbytelephonebetween11Julyand11August2014inthefollowingconstituencies: Bedford(1,000:23 30July) Carlisle(1,001:11 16July) Dewsbury(1,000:15 23July) Lincoln(1,000:14 21July) PlymouthSutton&Devonport(1,003:15 23July) Stroud(1,000:11 16July) WarringtonSouth(1,000:22 31July) WeaverVale(1,001:14 22July) BirminghamEdgbaston(1,000:31July 11August) BoltonWest(1,000:23 31July) Hampstead&Kilburn(1,000:23July 3August) SouthamptonItchen(1,000:31July 11August) Foreachconstituency,resultswereweightedtoberepresentativeofalladultslivingintheconstituency.Resultsareweightedbyrecalledpastvoteatthe lastgeneralelectionandstatedlikelihoodtoturnoutatthenext.aproportionofthosewhodon'tknoworrefusetosayhowtheywillvotearereqallocated tothepartytheyvotedforatthe2010generalelection.fulldatatablesareavailableatwww.lordashcroftpolls.com. TheeightConservativeseatsselectedwerethenextmostmarginaltothosepreviouslypolled(resultspublishedinMayandJuly2014).ThefourLabour seatsarethosewiththeclosestresultsfromthelabourseatspreviouslypolled(resultspublishedinmay2014).
5 August2014 Votingintention 1. Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor?WoulditbeConservative,Labour,LiberalDemocrat,,oranotherparty?If# another#party :#Would thatbe,thegreenparty,thebritishnationalparty(bnp),orsomeotherparty ordoyounotknowhowyouwouldvote? 2. Andthinkingspecificallyaboutyourownconstituencyandthecandidateswhoarelikelytostandthere,whichparty'scandidatedoyouthinkyouwillvoteforinyourown constituencyatthenextgeneralelection?[prompts#as#at#q1] %(changesince2010) (changesincemay2014) Standardvotingintention(Q1) Constituencyvotingintention(Q2) SwingsinceGE Con Lab LibDem Other Con Lab LibDem Other (onlocalvi) Bedford (Q11) 38(+2) 14(Q6) 15(+12) 5(+2) 6.5%ConQLab Labgain Carlisle (Q9) 41(+4) 5(Q11) 18+16) 6(Q) 6.5%ConQLab Labgain Dewsbury (Q5) 40(+8) 4(Q13) 18(+18) 9(Q7) 6.5%ConQLab Labgain Lincoln (Q3) 39(+4) 6(Q14) 17(+15) 4(Q1) 3.5%ConQLab Labgain PlymouthSutton&Devonport (Q8) 39(+7) 6(Q19) 21(+14) 9(+6) 7.5%ConQLab Labgain Stroud (Q11) 41(+2) 6(Q9) 11(+9) 11(+8) 6.5%ConQLab Labgain WarringtonSouth (Q7) 37(+4) 15(Q13) 15(+12) 3(+2) 5.5%ConQLab Labgain WeaverVale (Q7) 41(+5) 6(Q13) 18(+16) 3(Q1) 6.0%ConQLab Labgain Implied result BirminghamEdgbaston (Q9)(Q4) 48 (+7)(+4) 3 (Q12)(Q2) 12 (+10)(Q1) 6 (+1)(+1) 8.0%ConQLab Labhold BoltonWest (Q10)(Q1) 40 (+1)(Q1) 8 (Q9)(Q2) 21 (+17)(+4) 4 (+2)(+1) 5.5%ConQLab Labhold Hampstead&Kilburn (Q3)(Q) 47 (+14)(+6) 13 (Q18)(Q6) 2 (+1)(Q1) 7 (+5)(+1) 8.5%ConQLab Labhold SouthamptonItchen (Q2)(+6) 34 (Q3)(Q2) 10 (Q11)(Q2) 19 (+15)(Q1) 4 (+2)(Q) 0.5%LabQCon Tie
6 August2014 Aggregatebattlegroundresults # Data#weighted#to#be#representative#of#the#battleground#as#a#whole.#(Changes#since#May#2014)#(Changes#since#2010)# Iftherewereageneralelectiontomorrow,whichpartywouldyouvotefor? % Standardvotingintention Constituencyvotingintention SwingsinceGE Con Lab LibDem Other Con Lab LibDem Other (onlocalvi) Con@heldseats %ConQLab % Lab@heldseats %ConQLab Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? Ruleout Cons ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters voters Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Cseats Lseats % ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthecountry asawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters voters Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Country Me&family Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Well Badly Cseats Lseats
7 % August2014 Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. Satisfied withdc ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters voters Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Prefer EMtoDC Satisfied withdc Prefer DCtoEM Cseats Lseats Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsor? % Heardfrom Conservatives Heardfrom Labour Heardfrom LibDems Heard from Conseats Labseats Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats,a coalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? % ALLVOTERS Conservativevoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters voters C C@LD L@LD L Don't know C C@LD L@LD L Don t know C C@LD L@LD L Don t know C C@LD L@LD L Don't know C C@LD L@LD L Cseats Lseats Don t know Prefer EMtoDC
8 August2014 Partiesruledout? 3. Arethereanypartiesyouwoulddefinitelynotvoteforatthenextgeneralelection? % Ruleout Labour Convoters Labourvoters LibDemvoters voters Ruleout LibDems Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout LibDems Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout Ruleout Cons Ruleout Labour Ruleout LibDems Bedford # 61# 75# Carlisle # 60# 81# Dewsbury # 43# 80# Lincoln # 39# 88# PlymouthSutton&Devonport # 50# 73# Stroud # 60# 98# WarringtonSouth # 53# 85# WeaverVale # 46# 64# BirminghamEdgbaston # 32# 69# BoltonWest # 54# 72# Hampstead&Kilburn # 80# 82# SouthamptonItchen # 35# 84#
9 August2014 Economicoptimism 4. ThinkingaboutBritain seconomy includingthingslikejobs,wages,prices,taxesandinterestrates howdoyouthinkthebritisheconomywillfareoverthenextyear forthe countryasawhole,andforyouandyourfamily? %#(change#since#may#2014)# Forthecountryasawhole Formeandmyfamily Well Badly Well Badly Bedford Carlisle Dewsbury Lincoln PlymouthSutton&Devonport Stroud WarringtonSouth WeaverVale BirminghamEdgbaston 60(+1) 38(Q) 58(Q5) 41(+8) BoltonWest 60(+5) 36(Q5) 61(+4) 36(Q3) Hampstead&Kilburn 66(Q1) 30(+1) 69(Q3) 27(+2) SouthamptonItchen 60(+1) 36(Q1) 66(+6) 30(Q6)
10 August2014 ChoiceofPrimeMinister 5.Whichofthefollowingstatementsdoyoumostagreewith? (a) IamsatisfiedwiththejobDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister (b) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister BUTI'dstillprefertohavehimasPrimeMinisterthanhaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinister (c) IamdissatisfiedwiththejobthatDavidCameronisdoingoverallasPrimeMinister ANDI'dprefertohaveEdMilibandasPrimeMinisterinstead. %#(change#since#may#2014)# SatisfiedwithCameron Dissatisfied,butpreferCamerontoMiliband DissatisfiedandpreferMiliband Refused/Don tknow Bedford Carlisle Dewsbury Lincoln PlymouthSutton&Devonport Stroud WarringtonSouth WeaverVale BirminghamEdgbaston 29(+3) 27(Q1) 35(+3) 9(Q5) BoltonWest 27(+1) 29(+3) 33(+1) 10(Q5) Hampstead&Kilburn 30(Q) 24(Q2) 38(+7) 8(Q4) SouthamptonItchen 32(+1) 30(+3) 26(Q) 12(Q4)
11 August2014 Localcampaignactivity 6. Iwouldliketoaskwhetheranyofthemainpoliticalpartieshavecontactedyouoverthelastfewweeks whetherbydeliveringleafletsornewspapers,sendingpersonallyaddressed letters, ing,telephoningyouathomeorknockingonyourdoor.haveyouheardinanyofthesewaysfromtheconservatives,labour,thelibdemsor? %#(change#since#may#2014)# FromCons FromLabour FromLibDems From Fromnone Bedford Carlisle Dewsbury Lincoln PlymouthSutton&Devonport Stroud WarringtonSouth WeaverVale BirminghamEdgbaston 21(Q29) 28(Q22) 5(Q9) 8(Q27) 58(+33) BoltonWest 14(Q8) 17(Q19) 8(Q7) 10(Q2) 68(+21) Hampstead&Kilburn 21(Q21) 23(Q11) 20(Q18) 6(Q) 57(+25) SouthamptonItchen 27(Q2) 17(Q11) 7(Q2) 10(Q21) 59(+21)
12 August2014 Preferredelectionresult 7. Whichofthefollowingwouldyoumostliketoseeastheoutcomeofthenextelection?AConservativegovernment,acoalitionbetweentheConservativesandtheLiberalDemocrats, acoalitionbetweenlabourandtheliberaldemocrats,oralabourgovernment? %(changesincemay2014) Conservative government coalition coalition Labour government Don tknow Bedford Carlisle Dewsbury Lincoln PlymouthSutton&Devonport Stroud WarringtonSouth WeaverVale BirminghamEdgbaston 25(+1) 11(Q) 12(Q1) 41(+5) 11(Q5) BoltonWest 25(+2) 9(Q3) 10(Q) 39(+4) 17(Q3) Hampstead&Kilburn 24(Q1) 10(Q4) 18(Q1) 37(+7) 12(Q) SouthamptonItchen 27(+1) 12(+1) 13(+2) 32(Q) 16(+4)
13 August2014 Appendix:resultsat2010generalelection Con Lab LibDem Others Majority Swingneeded Bedford 17546(38.9%) 16193(35.9%) 8957(19.9%) 1136(2.5%) 1270(2.8%) 1353(3.0%) 1.5%ConQLab Carlisle 16589(39.3%) 15736(37.3%) 6567(15.6%) 969(2.3%) 2339(5.5%) 853(2.0%) 1.0%ConQLab Dewsbury 18898(35.0%) 17372(32.2%) 9150(16.9%) Q 8588(15.9%) 1526(2.8%) 1.4%ConQLab Lincoln 17163(37.5%) 16105(35.2%) 9256(20.2%) 1004(2.2%) 2193(4.8%) 1058(2.3%) 1.15%ConQLab PlymouthSutton&Devonport 15050(34.3%) 13901(31.7%) 10829(24.7%) 2854(6.5%) 1260(2.9%) 1149(2.6%) 1.3%ConQLab Stroud 23679(40.8%) 22380(38.6%) 8955(15.4%) 1301(2.2%) 1658(2.9%) 1299(2.2%) 1.1%ConQLab WarringtonSouth 19641(35.8%) 18088(33.0%) 15094(27.5%) 1624(3.0%) 427(0.8%) 1553(2.8%) 1.4%ConQLab WeaverVale 16953(38.5%) 15962(36.3%) 8196(18.6%) 1018(2.3%) 1861(4.2%) 991(2.3%) 1.15%ConQLab BirminghamEdgbaston 15620(37.6%) 16894(40.6%) 6387(15.4%) 732(1.8%) 1938(4.7%) 1274(3.1%) 1.55%Lab Con BoltonWest 18235(38.3%) 18327(38.5%) 8177(17.2%) 1901(4.0%) 936(1.9%) 92(0.2%) 0.1%Lab Con Hampstead&Kilburn 17290(32.7%) 17332(32.8%) 16491(31.2%) 408(0.8%) 1301(2.4%) 42(0.1%) 0.05%Lab Con SouthamptonItchen 16134(36.3%) 16326(36.8%) 9256(20.8%) 1928(4.3%) 768(1.8%) 192(0.4%) 0.2%Lab Con
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