History of TV Predictions: What We Can Learn from the Past. Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 1

Transcription

1 History of TV Predictions: What We Can Learn from the Past Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 1

2 Jan. 31, 2012 Edison s s Files Reveal the Only Known Voice Recording of Someone Born in the 18th Century Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 2

3 New York Herald, Dec. 3, 1888 the Arion Society of Newark yesterday sang to an audience not yet born. They sang at Llewellyn, New Jersey, but in time their voices may reach the antipodes... When the singers are dead their children and their children s s children will revive the memory of their ancestors by turning on the flood of melody. In ages to come, when our languages are no more, will the songs in German that the Arions sang be easily repeated. And why all these marvels? Because the Arions sang into the phonograph. Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 3

4 David Sarnoff Predictions Broadcasting Success of TV Color TV Video recording Home video Electronic cooling Internet Cell phones ipods Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 4

5 David Sarnoff Predictions Nuclear flashlights Broadcasting will never be commercial Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 5

6 David Sarnoff Predictions Predict a vast number of items and then, when the appropriate time [has] arrived, point to the successes and forget the failures. Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 6

7 The New York Times Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 7

8 The New York Times April 22, 1980 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 8

9 May 9, D D Invades TV Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 9

10 Mobile TV appeared in the comic strip in 1964 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 10

11 Mobile DTV Capacity? 20,000 video streams in 1 MHz? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 11

12 Donald G. Fink, SMPTE Technical Conference, 1980 (SMPTE Journal, June 1981) Mobile DTV Capacity? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 12

13 DTV in General 1976 NAB Broadcast Engineering Conference, An Application of Computer Technology to Television DTV to use 50 MHz per standard-definition definition channel NEC FS-10 Frame Synchronizer 1973 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 13

14 Video on Demand Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 14

15 Video on Demand New York Times, Nov. 15, 1970 (the described system, Paul Klein s s Computer Television, led to in-room hotel movies) Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 15

16 Video on Demand New York Times, Nov. 15, 1970 (main article was about home video) Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 16

17 Same Newspaper & Reporter, Apr. 22, 1956 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 17

18 152-inch plasma: too big for a home? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 18

19 1949 Color-Wheel TV Demo Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 19

20 HDTV "The exposition's opening on April 30 also marked the? advent of this country's first regular schedule of high- definition broadcasts" Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 20

21 HDTV "The exposition's opening on April 30 also marked the advent of this country's first regular schedule of high- definition broadcasts" - Broadcasting magazine? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 21

22 HDTV "The exposition's opening on April 30 also marked the advent of this country's first regular schedule of high- definition broadcasts" - Broadcasting magazine, reporting from the 1939 New York World s s Fair on 441-line (total) television Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 22

23 this country s? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 23

24 1929 book Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 24

25 Japan, UK, U.S. Conventional 1928 Regularly Scheduled TV Newscasts Live Remote TV Coverage Dramatic TV Programming Intercity TV Distribution Video Recording with varispeed play Home TV & Theatrical Large-Screen TV Color TV Special 3DTV See-in in-the-dark TV Two-Way TV not predictions Baird Noctovisor Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 25

26 Called the 1 st patent for videotape recording (applied for Russia June ; issued Britain March ) 2 problems in 1922: no video no tape John Hays Hammond, Jr. System of Television US 1,867,542 app. Dec. 6, 1928 iss.. Jul 12, 1932 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 26

27 More Predictions 1921, Henry Hubbard, NBS: for 1950 S3D, color, full-auto, random-access access non-index auto-mam 1908, Alan Archibald Campbell Swinton proposal for all-electronic TV it is only an idea with which I am concerned, and such an apparatus will never be built following these principles 1911 diagram Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 27

28 December 1900 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 28

29 TV Before Edison s Light Bulb This one wasn t, but it used an oil lamp light source anyway Henry Sutton Telephane of 1885 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 29

30 Verne Maybe Jules, maybe his son Michel Maybe written in 1889, maybe 1890 But who cares, because in 1882 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 30

31 Albert Robida predicted broadcast television in The Twentieth Century Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 31

32 And Not Just Ordinary Broadcast TV opera home shopping giant (25m) outdoor screens with ads voyeur-vision Mark Schubin, Schubin, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 distance learning also: product placement and one-person TV news crews 32

33 Scientific Book about Television Earlier in English, French, & Portuguese (this edition 1880, 1 st edition 1878) Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 33

34 And Technical Articles Before That English Mechanic & World of Science February 7, 1879 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 34

35 Prediction Before That? Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 35

36 Nope, a Joke Mark Schubin, Schubin, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 36

37 Preceded by More Technical Papers image transmission by fax already known (above 1861) Siemens Artificial Eye, photoconductivity demo of selenium first 1876 reported in 1873 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 37

38 Earliest Television? St. Clare of Assisi ( ) 1253) reportedly, one Christmas night, when illness prevented her from leaving her convent cell, she heard and saw the mass at the church across town as if present in person on that basis, she was proclaimed Patron Saint of Television by Pope Pius XII, with all liturgical honors and privileges, February 14, 1957 Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 38

39 Conclusions Negative predictions are almost invariably proved wrong: Television won't be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night - Darryl F. Zanuck, president, 20th Century Fox, 1946 Positive predictions usually come true eventually: There may come a time when we shall have smellyvision and tastyvision Dr. Archibald M. Low, fellow, IRE No one can predict the future But it s s possible to create it Mark Schubin,, ATSC 2.0, 2012 February 14 39